Project Deliverable: D08.1
Case Study Report: Aqaba, Jordan
Programme name:
Sustainable Management of Scarce Resources in the
Coastal Zone
Program Areas:
A3, (d)
Project acronym:
SMART
Contract number:
ICA3-CT-2002-10006
Project Deliverable:
D08.1 Case Study Report: Aqaba, Jordan
Related Work Package:
WP 08 Regional Case Study: Jordan
Type of Deliverable:
Aqaba (Jordan) Case Study Final Report (draft)
Dissemination level:
RE, Public
Document Author:
Muhammad Shatanawi & Zain Al-Houri, Jordan
Edited by:
Muhammad Shatanawi and Sawsan al-Naber
Reviewed by:
Muhammad Shatanawi
Document Version:
R 1.0
Revision history:
First Availability:
6/6/2005
Final Due Date:
31/5/2005
Last Modification:
Hardcopy delivered to:
Dr. Cornelia Nauen
European Commission, Research Directorate General
SDME 1/02
B-1049 Brussels, Belgium
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS.......................................................................................... 2
I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 3
II. DATA BASIS ...................................................................................................... 9
III. MODELING TOOLS......................................................................................... 30
IV. DISSEMINATION AND EXPLOITATIONS ..................................................... 64
V. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 65
VI. REFERENCES ................................................................................................ 68
VII. APPENDICES................................................................................................. 71
2
I. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Objectives
The overall objective of the SMART project is to develop, implement and test a new,
participatory but scientifically sound and rational approach to planning and management
of the coastal zone that can help to reconcile conflicting demands on scarce water. In
essence, the project is concerned with testing a strategy for solving water demand
conflicts.
The development of this approach begins with the integration of three primary
components, a socioeconomic framework, and two quantitative analysis tools:
WaterWare and TELEMAC. Later, a third tool (LUC model) was added that deals with
land use changes. The resulting methodology will simulate scenarios for the assessment
of water supply and water demand with reference to Integrated Coastal Zone
Management methods. Together, these models aim to integrate environmental impacts,
costs, access, and equity, in a systemic way. Their outputs will be assessed by a rulebased expert system and used to formulate recommendations for conflict resolution that
favor sustainability over time. The participation of selected stakeholders from water
management institutions is foreseen in testing the approach and in identifying best water
management practice. This SMART methodology has been be applied to five case
studies in the Mediterranean coastal zone in the countries of Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan,
Egypt and Tunisia.
This report describes the application of the SMART project on the Jordan case study
that deals with the management of water resources in the Aqaba Area. The location of
the case study within Jordan is presented in Fig.1.
1.2. Description of the study area
Jordan is a semi-arid country situated near the southern coast of the Mediterranean and
is located between latitudes of 29o N to 32o N and longitudes of 25o E to 39o E. The
country is bordered by Syria to the North, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf of Aqaba to the
south, Israel and Palestine to the west and Iraq and Saudi Arabia to the East. The total
area of Jordan is about 89,342 km2; out of which 560 Km2 as inland water mainly the
Dead Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba.
The Mediterranean climate prevails over the country which is characterized by long dry
hot summer, a rainy winter and relatively mild and short spring and fall seasons. The
average precipitation rate is 93.6 mm that varies from a little over 600 mm in north
western mountains to less than 50 mm in the east southern desert. About 83.8% of
Jordan receive less than 200 mm. The total average amount of rain that falls is about
8,424 million cubic meters (MCM) while the renewable water resources can reach about
935 MCM. The total water quantity used in 2003 is 812 MCM distributed as 513 MCM for
agriculture, 262 MCM for domestic and 37 MCM for industry. The limited water
resources coupled with expanding population have created a sever water supplydemand inbalance. Due to that the per capita share of water has dropped to less
than 170 m3/ capita/year and it could reach less than 90 m3 by the year 2020 if
regulatory and augmentation measures are not taken. According to the Water Stress
Index (WSI), Jordan is classified in the category of “Absolute Water Scarcity”. The water
problem is not only limited to shortage of water but the quality issue is rising. These
problems are most pronounced in the south eastern part of the country where the Gulf of
3
Aqaba is located. To solve the problem of water, non-renewable groundwater from
nearby Disi Aquifer is being transported to Aqaba.
The Gulf of Aqaba is one of the two northward branches to the Red Sea, shared
between four countries, namely; Egypt from the west, Saudi Arabia from the east and
Jordan and Israel to north. The Gulf is a semi-enclosed body of water with 180 Km long
and width that ranges from 26 Km in the middle to about 6 Km at its southern mouth at
the strait of Tiran. The water depth in the Gulf can reach a maximum of 1828 m with an
average depth of 800 m. The usual features are due to the fact that the Gulf is situated
in the middle of the Syria-Africa Rift Valley, which extents from the Ghab Valley in Syria
to the Rift Valley of East Africa passing through the Jordan Valley, the Dead Sea, Wadi
Araba and the Gulf of Aqaba
The Jordanian shoreline is about 26 Km in length that hosts the city of Aqaba. Aqaba,
being the only sea port of Jordan, is located at the most south-western part of Jordan
and is about 330 Km south of Amman. The coordinate of Aqaba city are 34o:57′ to
35o:09′ E longitudes and 29o:19′ to 29o:43′ latitudes.
The climate of Aqaba region is arid with an average precipitation of 35 mm and the
mean daily air temperature ranges from 14 oC in winter (January) to an average
maximum of 32oC in the Summer (August). The prevailing winds are from north with
occasional winter storm winds blowing from the south. The average relative air humidity
ranges from 30 to 35 percent. The surface water temperature of the Gulf varied from
20oC in February to 27.3oC in September while the marine temperature is constant at
21.5oC below a depth of 200 m. The salinity of the sea water ranges from 40.3 to 41.6
Kg per cubic meter. The prevailing wind speed ranges from 2 m/s to 7 m/s with
occasional gust during the few storms. Tides are semidiurnal with tide height ranging
from 0.3 to 1.0 m.
The semi enclosed characteristics of the Gulf of Aqaba have led to its rich biodiversity.
The Gulf hosts an extraordinary diversity of coral and related marine life. There are over
120 scleractinian coral species and 10 soft specific of coral that have been observed.
The reefs which fringe the Gulf of Aqaba coast line host more than 1000 species of fish.
Sea grasses exist in the immediate vicinity of the coral reefs. Providing and important
feed for fish, shrimp and other invertebrate and serving as host organisms for many
species of micro and macro algae. Marine mammals in the Gulf include sea cows and
dolphin. Sea turtles are observed in the Gulf waters.
Corals depend on two principal environmental elements: clear water free from
sediments, and steady, slow currents to carry off waste and provide nutrition. In this
regard, The Gulf of Aqaba is exceptionally well suited for mature coral reef ecosystem.
The deep still waters of the Gulf allow sediment to settle, and the bright sunshine
penetrates the water as far as100 meters. As a result, coral formation-both reef building
and soft coral is extensive and unusually deep in the Gulf. The slow, circular currents of
the Gulf of Aqaba provide abundant nourishment without endangering coral polyps, and
the high levels of dissolved oxygen in the warm waters allow luxuriant coral growth.
The semi enclosed characteristic of the Gulf results in limited water exchange with the
Red Sea and Indian Ocean. The residence time for shallow water is one to two years,
while the lower mass of water experiences a three year average residence time. Also the
semi enclosed nature of the environment of the Gulf of Aqaba causes the sea to
4
particularly susceptible to pollution. Marine pollution sources include urbanization,
industrialization, aquatic tourism, oil spills, solid waste, waste oil contamination,
phosphate dust, air pollution from land transportation, chemical pollution from industries,
thermal pollution from power plant, return flow from irrigation, pollution of the shallow,
brackish water aquifer and sewage from the municipal sewage treatment ponds. If these
activities are not controlled in an environmentally sound and sustainable manner
environmental degradation will worsen .
The city of Aqaba has been taken considerable attention from the Government since the
establishment of the country in 1921. In 1939, one berth port was built in Aqaba as a
military supply base during the Second World War II. In 1952, Jordan took an
economical decision in putting the basis for establishing a commercial port to receive
imports, to cargo the export and to employee the local workforce. The Aqaba Port
Authority was in charge of these responsibilities. The name of the institutions had
passed through several changes ending in 1978 by establishing the Port Corporation
(APC) which was in charge of construction, operation and maintenance of Aqaba port
facilities. These facilities occupy now nearly 30% of the Jordanian Gulf of Aqaba
shoreline. Along with other institutional development in the country, the Aqaba Region
Authority (ARA) was established in 1984 under ARA law no. 7 of 1987. The law stated
that ARA is responsible for the coordination of social and economical development in the
region of Aqaba. It also give ARA the mandate of formulating necessary policies, plans,
regulations and programs in collaborating with other public and private agencies such as
APC which is a key partner to ARA.
Realizing the importance of Aqaba being at the cross-road of Africa, Asia and Europe
and its location among four countries, the Government of Jordan has declared Aqaba
region as a special zone duty free area. As a result of that ARA was replaced by Aqaba
Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA) Under low No. 32 of 2001. ASEZA
associated to the Prime Minister and administered and supervised by a Board known as
the "Board of Commissioners", which composed of six full-time members, including the
Chief Commissioner and the Vice-Chief Commissioner who appointed by a decision of
the Council of Ministers upon the recommendation of the Prime Minister for a renewable
four-years term, provided that such decision shall be endorsed by a Royal Decree. The
Authority has a juridical personality with financial and administrative autonomy. The
Authority becomes the legal and factual successor of the Aqaba Region Authority and
the Municipality of Aqaba. All rights and obligations of the Aqaba Region Authority and
the Municipality of Aqaba transferred to the ASEZA. ASEZ is Jordan’s gateway to global
commerce and a premier tourist destination. The Aqaba Special Economic Zone is
emerging as a major duty-free economic development node for tourism, recreation
services, professional services, multi-nodal transportation and value-added industries in
the Middle East. Situated on the northern tip of the Red Sea on the Gulf of Aqaba, the
ASEZ covers approximately 375 square kilometers, and extends to the land borders of
Saudi Arabia, and Israel and the territorial waters of Egypt (Figure2). Aqaba offers global
business opportunities in a competitive location with high- quality lifestyle. Businesses in
Aqaba can benefit from the many incentives and facilitation offered by the ASEZA such
as: streamlined and simplifies business registration and licensing; simplified foreign work
permits and visa regime; no social services tax; Exemption from sales tax on the final
consumption of all goods, except for a 7 % sales tax in certain items; no annual land and
building taxes on utilized property; exemption from custom duties on all imports to the
ASEZ except cars; no restriction on foreign currency and no repatriation of capital and
profits and much more. A Qualified Industrial Zone within the ASEZ allows products
5
manufactured therein to benefit from duty-free and quota-free access to the United
States. Other trade agreements with the United States, European Union and some Arab
countries bring similar benefits to Industries manufactured in Jordan
The main economical activities in Aqaba are associated with the port, some industries,
tourisms and re-export activities. The port is the largest employer in the region with over
5000 workers as compared to 1700 workers in industry and about 800 workers in the
tourism sector. The revenue exceeding 200 million JD. Along with that, tourism is a key
force in Aqaba growing that generates and estimated revenue of 40 million JD.
Aqaba economical growth over the past three decades has been accompanied by a
parallel growth in population. Since 1972, Aqaba has been expanded from a small town
of 19,000 to a city of 89,000 inhabitants at the end of 2004. By the end of 2005, the city
is predicated to reach a population of 91.200. Beyond that, the region’s planner
anticipated that the coastal population can reach to approximately 250,000 by the year
2020. If growth goes at high level this can be reached taking into account current plans
for resort hotels and vacation communities development as well as expansion in the
industrial and commercial activities.
The different kinds of economical development will of course increase demand for water.
At the present water supply to Aqaba is derived from the aquifers of the Red Sea basin
and from the adjacent non-renewable Disi Aquifer system. The Government has
allocated 17.5 MCM of water from Disi and about 2.5 MCM from other aquifers. The
current water consumption in the region is estimated at 14.5 MCM plus 2 MCM of
treated wastewater which is used for irrigating some 200 ha of palm farms, the Green
belt and the airport aforestation project. The effluent from newly built treatment plants is
expected to reach 7 MCM by the year 2020 and will be used for irrigating landscape
areas, palm farms and newly developed forest areas. In the future, demand for water will
increase to reach about 33.5 MCM on the average by the year 2020.
The Government has to think of measures on how to augment the water deficit of 10-15
MCM. The only viable solution will be water desalination. Therefore, feasibility study as
well as environmental impact assessment has to be prepared a head of time to avoid
any environment risk. This project will try to answer these concerns by evaluating
different scenarios through implementing the qualitative and quantitative tools described
earlier.
6
Figure 1:
A GIS map of Jordan showing the study area
7
Figure 2: Map showing the boundry of Aqaba Special Economic Zone (ASEZA)
8
II. DATA BASIS
Data availability and quality are considered prerequisite for achieving the objectives of
the project in helping and solving water demand issues by testing strategies that can
reconcile conflicting demand on scare water resources. The data base is classified
under the three primary components of project, namely; a socioeconomic framework and
two quantitative analysis tools: Waterware and TELEMAC. In addition is the initial phase
of requirements and constraints.
2.1 Data for Requirements and Constraints
During initial phase of the project and to fulfill the deliverable D01 of workpackage 01
“Requirements and Constraints”, the following input was furnished to FEEM (leader of
WP01):
a.
Description of the case study area
b.
Data information regarding: availability, source, coverage, formatting, quality and
cost.
c.
Key water issues
d.
Key issues of changes
e.
Policy reverent information
2.2 Data for Socio-economic Framework
As an approach to study the sustainable management of scarce resources in the coastal
zone, an integrated analysis of the social and economic aspects was performed. The
data compiled and submitted included the requirement of the following four tasks of
WP02.
a.
b.
c.
d.
Population, demographic and migration policy analysis
Political and Economic Options Adopted for the Study Areas
Competing Water Uses
Economic Analysis of Water Resources
The socioeconomic data were analyzed and processed by SUMER (WP04) by which a
consistent data base was built. The data furnished for Jordan case study is presented in
Table 1.
The framework of social and economic issues will provide guidelines for generating
plausible and consistent scenarios for each case study. The DPSIR framework has been
chosen as the most suitable approach to define SMART scenarios. A logic frame for the
definition of scenarios and indicators have been prepared by FEEM. Inputs for the
identification of relevant indicators from all partners have been collected through a
guided exercise. The key issues as well as a scenario definition and indicators for
Jordan Case Study are presented in section 2.2.1.
9
Table 1: Socio-economic data provided to SUMER for (WP 04) for Jordan case study.
Ind.
Code
Indicator
Unit
BAU
OPT
PES
94400
15750
11015
0
35
0
25
28
15
35
0
25
28
15
36.5
4.0
24.5
22
10
32
-4
26
30
15
294
294
320
500
5
29
71.5
5
29
71.5
3.5
24
73
4.5
35
70
24
32
4.5
24
32
24
4.5
24
24
28
5.5
28
32
30
2
20
81
81
90
75
EURO/M3
EURO/M3
EURO/M3
EURO
0.71
0.25
1.13
1.13
0.71
0.25
1.13
1.13
0.71
0.25
1.13
1.13
1.50
0.5
1.5
1.5
m3/sec
0.11
0.11
0.17
0.2
m3/sec
0.02
0.02
0.05
0.07
0.01
0.1
0.25
0.35
Urban
Rural
Regional Population
TOTAL
C1
C2
C3
D1
D2
Average Precipitation
Precipitation Increase/Decrease
Daily Average Temperature
Population Growth Rate
Migratory Rate
D3
Population Density
D4
D5
D6
Crude Death Rate
Crude Birth Date
Life Expectancy at Birth
D7
Birth Control Efficiency
D8
D9
E1
E2
Urban Growth Rate
Rural Growth Rate
Growth of G.D.P.
Activity Rate
Percentage
of
Tertiary
Employment
Tourism Income Contribution to the
Reg. Product
Water Price for the Domestic Use
Water Price for the Agriculture Use
Water Price for the Industry
Water Price for the Tourism Units
Domestic Water Consumption
(daily average)
Commercial Water Consumption
(daily average)
Agricultural Water Consumption
(daily average)
Industrial Water
Consumption
(daily average)
Environmental Water Demand
(daily average)
E5
E6
P1
P2
P3
P4
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
mm/y
%
0
C
%o/year
%o/year
Number
of
People / km2
%o/year
%o/year
years
2
for
successful
1 for partially
successful
0
for
unsuccessful
%o/year
%o/year
%
%
%
BASE
LINE
EURO
m3/sec
m3/sec
0.13
0.13
m3/sec
0
0
10
0.05
W6
W7
W8
W9
Resp_
Code
WDM1
WDM1
0
WDM2
WDM3
WDM4
WDM5
WDM6
WDM7
WDM8
WDM9
WQM1
WQM2
WQM3
WQM4
WQM5
WQM6
WQM7
WQM8
WQM9
WSM1
Water Consumption by Tourism
m3/sec
(daily average)
Total Water Consumption (daily
m3
average)
Irrigated Area
km2
0
for
insufficient
awareness
Water Exploitation Awareness
1
for
comprehensiv
e awareness
Response
Water price (domestic)
Awareness for limiting abstraction
Water price (agriculture)
Water price (industry)
Water price (tourism)
Water subvention (domestic)
Water subvention (agriculture)
Water subvention (industry)
Water subvention (tourism)
Irrigation system
0.07
0.07
0.21
0.3
2.5
2932
6
2.5
6500
0
7.5
9000
0
10
1
1
1
1
29326
UNIT
EURO/m3
0
for
"low"
1 for "high"
EURO/m3
EURO/m3
EURO/m3
EURO/m3
EURO/m3
EURO/m3
EURO/m3
1 for "flooding"
2 for "sprinkling"
3 for "dripping"
Share of industrial wastewater treated on
site
%
0
for
"not
Solid waste management
effective"
1 for "effective"
Urban waste water treatment
m3/year
0
for
"local"
Water treatment investments
1 for "extensive"
0
for
"low"
Awareness for limiting fertilization
1 for "high"
Share
of
collected
and
treated 0
for
"low"
wastewater
1 for "high"
Limiting salinization through drainage 0
for
"low"
systems
1 for "high"
Existence
of
pollutant
monitoring 0 for "insufficient"
programs
1 for "full" control
0 for "insufficient"
National regulations on wastewater
1 for "full" control
0
for
DomesticWater
Distribution&Use
"incomplete"
Systems Investments
1 for "complete"
11
Curre
nt
0.71
Future
1.13
1
0.25
1.13
1.13
0.42
0
0
0
1
0.3
1.13
1.13
0
0
0
0
3
3
30
40
1
NA
1
3500000
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
for
"low"
1 for "high"
1
Mm3/year
NA
WSM10 Groundwater exploitation
WSM11 Mobilization of surface water
Basin-out
Water
WSM12
(Surface&Groundwater)
WSM13 Water import
Supply
WSM14 Recycling of wastewater
m3/sn
m3
WSM15 Desalination
m3
1
0.64
0
1,500.
000.00
400,00
0
25
0
1
1
0
65
72
35
28
1
80
85
20
15
0
0
0.05
200000
3500000
1000000
WSM16 Limits to groundwater exploitation
WSM2
WSM3
WSM4
WSM5
WSM6
WSM7
WSM8
WSM9
0
for
Agri. Water Distribution&Use Systems
"incomplete"
Investments
1 for "complete"
0
for
"low"
Reservoir Storage Investments
1 for "high"
Efficiency in irrigation
%
Efficiency in urban network
%
Loss Rate in Irrigation System
%
Loss Rate in Urban Distribution System
%
Minimum
flow
for
environmental
m3/sec
purposes
Water harvesting
m3/yr
2.2.1Information for Comparative Policy Analysis
As requirement for WP 0, input from Jordan case study include description of the
situation under current state, optimistic and pessimistic conditions. Also, the results of
indictors (Table 2) from 13 management responses (runs) of WRM models was
submitted to FEEM for conducting comparative policy analysis using multi-criteria
analysis.
The data provided and furnished will be described under each
component. The advantages and disadvantages of the integrated development are:
ِA. Defining Good Situations for the Aqaba Region
1.
Introduction of desalination units will increase the amount of available water.
2.
Declaring The Aqaba area as a special economic zone resulted in attracting new
investors in trade and industry, and increasing in the tourist activities, therefore
improving economy.
3.
The Gulf of Aqaba hosts an extraordinary diversity of corals and related marine life,
2.which attract a large number of tourists to Aqaba and thus development of new
hotels and resort cities resulting in improving the economy. Approximately 66% of
Jordan tourists visit Aqaba, about 600,000 tourists (1996).
4.
The Anticipated developments in the Tourist and industry sector will bring new job
opportunities.
B.
Defining Bad Situations for the Aqaba Region
12
1.
1.1 MCM/year of reclaimed wastewater is reused near the coast result in:
a.
Risk of Pollution
b.
Restricted Agriculture
2.
Population of Aqaba will increase ( regular increase, and irregular increase due to
new job opportunities resulting from expanding industry, tourists, and other
activities)
3.
The increase in tourist rate will increase demand for guaranteed water quality for
protection of biodiversity and the safety of bathing waters.
4.
Uncontrolled tourist activities cause damage to corals by tourist boats, coral
breakage by divers.
5.
20 MCM/year is imported from adjacent aquifers that will cause draw down in
groundwater level.
6.
There are major industries located along the coastline of the Gulf of Aqaba that
causes environment damage including emission of pollutant gases and pumping of
cooling water back into the gulf. Any expansion in the industrial facilitates will
cause more stress on the environment of Aqaba.
7.
New industries are anticipated to be developed in the future such as Hasad Liquid
Fertilizer, Kemira Arab Potash Company, and Lumber Factory. These industries
will increase water uses for industry, and thus increase the stress in the water
demand
8.
Three main ports are operating to import and export various products including
phosphates, potash, fertilizers and oils. An environment problem in Aqaba is
phosphate dust emerging from loading and unloading activities, this dust will
eventually sink in the water being difficult to dissolve it precipitates on the corals
resulting in decrease in coral growth around phosphate port.
9.
Movement of vessels brings sources of pollution to the gulf from solid waste,
leakage of oils and anchorage.
10.
The new development plan for Aqaba suggests the transfer of the main port to the
southern beach; this will cause a heavy stress on the corals reef in the southern
beach, which comprises the highest coral diversity and uniqueness.
11.
Establishment of Aqaba special economic zone resulted in:
a.
Attracting new investors in trade and industry, this development will increase
demand for water supply for the growing population and the future industrial
activities, and
b.
Higher rate in construction and building practices
c.
On the other hand the above activities will lead to increase in wastewater
generation.
13
C.
Scenarios and indicators
14
15
Table 2. Indicators of WRM from 13 Runs under Different Water Management Responses.
Scenarios
Indicators
Supply (MCM)
Population growth (%)
Multiplier
Supply/Demand ratio (%)
Global Efficiency (%)
Reliability (%)
Total Shortfall (%)
Total Unallocated (%)
Flooding Conditions
Sectoral Water Budget (%)
Domestic (S/D)
Industrial (S/D)
Services (S/D)
Domestic (Reliability)
Industrial (Reliability)
Services (Reliability)
Baseline Current response
Water
supply
and
demand
management response
2003
14.85
3.30
1.00
95.80
63.00
71.73
3.20
0.64
0.00
Water demand
management
response
BAU OPT PESS BAU OPT PESS
17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50
3.30
5.30
7.30
3.30
5.30
7.30
1.35
1.80
2.38
1.35
1.80
2.38
71.92 53.93 40.69 84.19 63.19 47.69
60.00 61.57 59.86 70.21 70.15 70.15
58.25 53.93 32.30 60.68 56.25 39.92
25.54 52.27 93.75 14.68 44.41 82.87
0.61
0.66
0.54
0.65
0.78
0.65
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Water supply
management
response
BAU OPT
22.50 27.50
3.30
5.30
1.35
1.80
95.17 90.86
58.78 56.93
70.74 63.59
3.97
7.49
0.69
0.61
0.00
0.00
PESS
37.50
7.30
2.38
92.73
57.39
66.22
5.93
0.64
0.00
BAU
22.50
3.30
1.35
97.94
68.90
77.23
2.14
7.91
0.00
OPT
27.50
5.30
1.80
79.17
70.75
71.86
2.91
0.81
0.00
PESS
37.50
7.30
2.38
97.79
71.48
72.30
2.37
0.79
0.00
98.75
89.88
98.75
51.96
38.63
52.33
98.74
36.40
92.01
51.87
0.00
43.84
98.74
88.20
98.65
51.87
35.89
52.05
98.74
82.82
98.36
51.42
21.92
50.69
98.73
94.01
100.00
51.05
41.37
100.00
98.73
92.67
98.70
51.05
38.90
51.51
98.73
94.11
98.73
51.05
40.55
51.78
96.95
3.98
68.03
47.49
0.00
23.29
89.83
0.00
8.33
36.90
0.00
0.00
98.73
63.07
98.28
51.05
2.19
50.96
16
90.59
19.53
81.23
50.23
0.00
39.45
94.49
0.25
43.15
44.20
0.00
4.38
98.74
78.62
98.10
51.42
13.12
50.14
2.3 Data for WaterWare
The data that are needed for WRM model are:
1.
Daily pumping rate from Disi well fields for the years 1998,1999, 2000, 2001, 2002
and 2003 were obtained from the Ministry of Water and irrigation. Figure 3 shows
the time series of pumping rate for the year 2003. Monthly pumping rates for other
years (1998-2003) on monthly basis are presented in Table 3.
2.
Daily water demand for the five nodes representing different sectors are also
collected from the Ministry of Water and irrigation, directorate of Aqaba and are
presented in Figure 4 to 8.
3.
The water distribution network representing the nodal points and the system
objects are presented in Figure 9.
17
Table 3. Monthly Pumping Rate in Cubic Meters of Disi Wells for Aqaba Area for the Years: 1998-2003
Year
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Total
1998
1,217,631
1,149,864
1,279,430
1,298,201
1,519,589
1,571,064
1,644,321
1,631,347
1,598,015
1,507,576
1,359,115
1,386,392
17,162,545
1999
1,306,359
1,137,188
1,451,265
1,482,218
1,513,330
1,345,632
1,527,667
1,417,306
1,587,562
1,553,934
1,353,975
1,347,257
17,023,693
2000
1,112,482
925,202
1,240,935
1,221,585
1,384,649
1,479,839
1,578,549
1,729,349
1,408,341
1,458,565
1,382,386
1,340,718
16,262,600
2001
1,157,869
1,006,452
1,300,256
1,221,585
1,392,649
1482,327
1,578,549
1,729,322
1,437,375
1,511,566
1,348,389
1,322,418
16,488,757
2002
1,169,145
1,276,065
1,248,865
1,429,429
1,570,436
1,530,373
1,467,506
1,769,038
1,585,913
1,616,055
1,400,990
1,451,089
17,514,904
2003
1,364,452
1,200,175
1,297,657
1,430,048
1,641,430
1,615,424
1,753,502
1,610,485
1,619,696
1,658,372
1,493,260
1,386,557
18,071,058
Source: MWI
18
Figure 3: Time series of Daily Pumping Rate to Aqaba Water Network
19
Figure 4: Daily Demand in m3/s for Terminal Reservoir Node.
20
Figure 5: Daily Demand in m3/s for low level Reservoir Node.
21
Figure 6: Daily Demand in m3/s for High level Reservoir Node.
22
Figure 7: Daily Demand in m3/s for Main Trunk Reservoir Node.
23
Figure 8: Daily Demand in m3/s for WAJ Reservoir Node
24
Figure 9: The water Distribution Network and the Demand Zone from each Node.
25
2.4 Data for Land Use Change Model (LUC)
A major element in integrated coastal zone management is land use change which is
most evidently linked to water demand conflicts. The dynamic land use change model
will be used to calculate the dynamic development of land use over decades, and to
estimate regional water use as a function of land use. The result of this model will be
compared to the detailed WATERWARE budget as a rough check on those estimates.
For the purpose of this model, two SPOT satellite images (Figure 10 and Figure 11)
covering the Jordanian study area was purchased. The satellite images have a spatial
resolution of 10 meters. Their dates of acquisition are March 28, 1990 and February
19, 2003. The images were geo-referenced to UTM zone 36, WGS 84.
Figure 10: SPOT Satellite images of Aqaba for the year 1990.
26
Figure 11:
SPOT Satellite images of Aqaba for the year 2003.
2.5 Data for TELEMAC Model
Data that are used for TELEMAC model runs are:
a.
b.
c.
Initial condition: A ‘CONSTANT ELEVATION’ is prescribed throughout the model.
This initializes the free surface elevation at a constant value supplied by the
keyword “INTIAL ELEVATION.
Bathymetry: the bathymetrical data and coastal limits of the Gulf were generated
by digitizing numerical bathymetrical maps with SINUSX. The structure of the
resulted file consists of three columns: X, Y and Z. The projected co-ordinate
system used is UTM, zone 36. The bathymetry data ranged from 0 m onshore to
1600m offshore (figure 12). The generated geometry file consisted of 4926 points
and 74 lines.
Wind Data: Wind speed in (m/s) and direction in (degree) were obtained from the
record of the meteorological conditions at Marine Science Station on the
27
Jordanian Coast of the Gulf of Aqaba for the year 2000. Wind data were recorded
every 6 hours. The wind speed ranges from 1.5, 1.4 and 1.05 m/s to 11.3, 7.2,
and 7.64m/s for the month of March, June and August, respectively. Wind
direction is generally North East.
d.
Tide Data: Measured values for the tides are available for only the month of
August for the year 2000. For the month of March and June, the calculated values
that are available on the web are used. The web address is
(http://www.shom.fr/fr_page/fr_serv_prediction/ann_marees_f.htm).
e.
Water Quality Data: The dilution of a passive tracer was calculated. The
simulated pollutant is Nitrate which is considered as a passive tracer for the
simulated time period. Flow rates of (0.0035m3/s) are imposed at three different
locations: Al-Hafyer Palm district, the hotel zone, and the Orchards.
f.
Measured currents (intensity & direction) at one location during the months of
March (from 06/03 to 31/03), June (from 01/06 to 22/06) and August (from 01/08
to 22/08) of the year 2000. The projected coordinate of that location in UTM is:
X=690861 Y= 3260258.
g.
Measured currents (intensity & direction) at two locations during the month of
March 1999. The projected coordinates of those locations are: X=684850 Y=
3254935 and X= 651992 Y= 3135229. For the first location, the available
measured currents are only for 3 hrs period during the third and fourth day of
March. For the second location, it is for 28 hrs period during the second and third
day of March.
h.
Description of the bottom of the Gulf of Aqaba. It was known from the MSS that
the bottom of the Aqaba Gulf consists of more than 90% Silicate and the
remaining part is Carbonate.
28
Figure 12: Map of the Gulf of Aqaba showing the Bathymetry
29
III. MODELING TOOLS
3.1 Water Resources Management Model (WRM).
The Water Resources Management Model (WRM) is one of the core components of
the WaterWare Modeling System. The application of the WRM is used to describe
water flow and availability, to represent the dynamic of water demand and supply for
each node and to summarize the annual water budget. This is done through node to
node analysis for a branched water supply and demand network. The network can take
the form of a loop or tree setting. The model is based on the continuity equation or
mass balance approach at any nodal point. For flow in natural streams (rivers), channel
routing is considered in the model in the form of Muskingom method while for pipe
network the routing element is ignored.
In order to simulate the behavior of a river basin or a pipe network over time it is
described as a system of nodes and reaches. These nodes represent the different
components of a river system. The nodes are connected by reaches which represent
natural or man-made channels which carry flow through the river system (on line
manual, http://www. ess.co.at/Smart/WaterWware/Manaual Reference). The elements
of the WRM Model are:
1.
2.
3.
4.



5.
6.
Start node which provides the input flow at the beginning of a water course. This
could represent: a spring; an upstream catchments; an inter-basin transfer; or a
major input of groundwater to the water system
Confluence nodes which provide for the joining of several reaches. Is
characterized by more than one inflow
Diversion nodes which represent branching of flow to several channels; it is
characterized by more than one outflow and rules to distribute the flow.
Demand nodes that describe the consumptive use of water. They include:
Municipal node which represents municipal water demand (domestic,
commercial, services and tourism).
Industrial node which represents water demands for industry.
Irrigation node which represents water demands for irrigation.
Geometry nodes do not affect the flow directly, but are used to start a new reach
or serve as a place holder to provide a network structure consistent with other
models.
Terminal nodes which represent outlets from the basin considered in the model,
including outflow to the sea
3.1.1 Model Dynamics
The model operates on a daily time step to represent the dynamics of water demand
and supply, and the routing process if the channel system is employed. This daily time
step can be aggregated, for output and reporting purposes, to a weekly, monthly, and
annual scale.
Start node: This node provides the input flow to the simulation model, which represent
the natural flows. The flow is represented in the following form
Qj = βΙj + QΙj
where
Qj
=
outflow in m3/day from the start node in day j
Ιj
=
inflow in m3/day to a start node in day j
30
QΙj
=
β=0 =
input flow in m3/day to a start node in day j
in case where the start node represents a head water source.
Confluence Node: This node provides the joining of natural tributaries or man-made
conveyance channels. The equation governing the flow at a confluences node is
n
Q j = ∑ Ι ji
i=1
where
Qj
=
outflow in m3/day from a confluence node in day j
i
Ιj
=
i-th channel or pipe inflow in m3/day to a confluence in day j
Diversion Node: This node represents diversions flow to other nodes in the system.
The diversion rule is such that a minimum downstream release is given priority. The
operation rule is described as follows
Qj = Ιj
ADj = 0
when Ιj < DWTj
Qj = DWTj
ADj = Ιj - DWTj when DWTj ≤ Ιj ≤ DWTj + TDj
Qj = Ιj - TDj
ADj = TDj
when Ιj > DWTj + TDj
where
Qj
=
actual downstream flow in m3/day from a diversion node in day j
Ιj
=
inflow in m3/day to a diversion node in day j
ADj
=
actual diversion flow in m3/day in day j
DWTj =
downstream target flow in m3/day in day j
TDj
=
diversion target flow in m3/day in day j
3.1.2 Projection of Future Water Demand
The driving forces for water demand in Aqaba are population growth, socio-economic
development, technological changes and increased industrial and tourism activities.
Demographic changes through natural growth and migration can affect the water
balance by demanding more water than already available. Industrial and tourism
activities will demand more water and will generate more waste while technological
changes might introduce good demand management resulting in water saving At the
present, the water supply for Aqaba depend on the non-renewable ground water of Disi
Aquifers. The precise water demand for the city of Aqaba can not be easily predicted
for a number of reasons, mainly the difficulty in projecting future population. As such, it
is difficult to determine, with confidence, the future growth rate because it is very much
related to political stability of the region. Although historical data on demographic
changes are available, but previous studies have failed in predicting exact percentage
in the rise of population and the growth in tourism. For example, Montogomery-Watson
(2000) has estimated the population of Aqaba till the year 2025.
With the establishment of the free economical zone area, they have predicted the
population of Aqaba to reach 115,608 people in the year 2005 which is an over
estimated figure compared to the actual population of 91,200 according to the recent
census of 2004. They have also projected the total water demand for Aqaba up to year
2025. For the year 2020, the projection ranged from 32 MCM as low projection to 69
MCM at the maximum. Their projection for 2005 was not fulfilled as the water
consumption remained at the level of 2003.
For the purpose of this research, a different approach has been taken by considering
the censuses of 1979, 1994 and 2004 as milestones. In 1979, the population of Aqaba
was 27,000; it was 79,839 in 1994, while the 2004 census recorded Aqaba population
as 88,278 people. Taking that into consideration, the population growth percentage for
the last 30 years was analyzed and new figures were established and constructed as
31
shown in Table 4. The analysis was linked to the economical development associated
with the political situation prevailed during that period. An annual population increase of
7.3 % was estimated for the period of 1974-1984. This period witnessed the
economical jump associated with the increase in oil prices and the political stability
following the 1973 Arab-Israli war. During this period Aqaba port served as an
important export-import hup not only for Jordan but for the neighboring Arab countries.
The economical activities during the period 1984-1994 slowed down due to the first and
second gulf wars but the importance of Aqaba as an outlet to Jordan and Iraq remained
of great significant. The average population growth during this period was estimated at
5.3% reflecting the prevailed conditions in the second decade. An average increase in
population of 3.3% was calculated for the last 10 years based on the census of 1994
and 2004.
Table 4.
Year
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
The Constructed Population Growth for Aqaba City for the Last Three
Decades Based on Analysis of 1979, 1994 and 2004 Census.
Aqaba Population Year
Aqaba Population
18,980
1990
51,500
20,370
1991
54,075
21,855
1992
56,779
23,450
1993
60,100
25,160
1994
63,804
27,000
1995
65,900
28,970
1996
68,050
31,085
1997
70,320
33,355
1998
72,640
35,790
1999
75,040
38,068
2000
77,515
40,350
2001
80, 070
42,370
2002
82,735
44,488
2003
85,460
46,712
2004
88,286
49,050
2005
91,200
These values will be used to project Aqaba population under three growth models. The
first model assumes that the current trend continues i.e. a percentage increase of 3.3
%. The second model assume a 5.3 % annual population increase which is similar to
the period of 1984-1994, while the third model is based on 7.3 % annual increase in
population that duplicates the trend during the period of 1974-1984. To project water
demand, it is necessary to estimate the per capita demand for various uses. The
municipal per capita demand was assumed at 165 lpcd following the analysis of
Montgomery–Watson (2000). They have expected that the residential per capita to be
83 lpcd, an equivalent of 12 lpcd for the commercial sector, the equivalent tourist
consumption is 12 lpcd and the services town consumption is equivalent to 41 lpcd
while the services for the south area consumption is 17 lpcd .
The actual historical industries consumption varied from 4.882 MCM in 1998 to 4.075
MCM in 2003. Future industrial consumption will be calculated different than the
calculation of Montgomery-Watson (2000). Their estimate for 2005 ranged from 7.7 to
8.9 MCM, where in reality; this figure could not be achieved by the end of 2005
because the level of industrial activities remained as it was in 2003. Therefore, the
estimates of Montgomery-Watson for non-industrial purposes will be used for
calculating future water demand while industrial demand will be less than their
estimation. Furthermore, it is assumed that the growth of industrial demand will follow
the same growth trend in population as for the three growth models.
32
On the other hand, many studies (e.g. Wilburt Smith, 2001) estimated the unaccounted
for water (UFW) at 36 % for 2000. They expected that this value could be reduced to
28 % by the year 2003 through the systematic network rehabilitation and improving
management. They have also estimated that UFW can be further reduced to 20 % for
the year 2005 and 15 % for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020. However these estimates
are not achieved and would not be achievable in the near future. Therefore, reasonable
figures are estimated for the purpose of this study so that the UFW could be reduced
from 36 % in 2003 to 30 % in 2010 and 25 % in 2020.
3.1.3 Scenario Development
For the purpose of this study, different scenario will evaluated under different growth
models; namely, low growth model (3.3 % population increase), medium growth model
(5.3 % population increase) and high growth model (7.3 % population increase). The
projected population for the above three growth models as used to predict the future
water demands and are presented in Tables 5, 6 and 7.
Table 5. Population Growth and Future Water Demand (MCM) under Status Quo
Model or Low Growth Model (3.3%).
Year
Population
Sector
2005
91,200
lpcd
Municipal
Services
Tourism
Non Ind.
Industrial
Actual demand
UFW
Total
95
58
12
165
0.36
Demand
3.132
1.931
0.399
5.492
4.071
9.563
5.379
14.942
2010
107,275
lpcd Demand
2015
126,183
lpcd Demand
95
58
12
165
95
58
12
165
0.36
33
3.720
2.271
0.470
6.461
4.789
11.250
6.328
17.578
0.36
4.375
2.671
0.553
7.599
5.633
13.232
7.443
20.675
2020
148,422
lpcd Deman
d
95
5.147
58
3.142
12
0.650
165
8.939
6.625
15.564
0.36 8.755
24.312
Table 6. Population Growth and Future Water Demand under Medium Growth
Model (5.3%).
Year
Population
Sector
2005
91,200
lpcd
Municipal
Services
Tourism
Non Ind.
Industrial
Actual demand
UFW
Total
95
58
12
165
0.36
Demand
3.162
1.930
0.400
5.492
4.071
9.563
5.379
14.942
2010
118,069
lpcd Demand
2015
152,854
lpcd Demand
95
58
12
165
95
58
12
165
0.36
4.094
2.500
0.512
7.111
5.270
12.381
6.964
19.345
0.36
5.300
3.236
0.670
9.206
6.823
16.029
9.016
25.045
2020
197,888
lpcd Deman
d
95
6.862
58
4.189
12
0.867
165
11.918
8.833
20.751
0.36 11.672
32.423
Table 7. Population Growth and Future Water Demand under High Growth Model
(7.3 %).
Year
Population
Sector
2005
91,200
lpcd
Municipal
Services
Tourism
Non Ind.
Industrial
Actual demand
UFW
Total
95
58
12
165
0.36
Demand
3.162
1.930
0.400
5.492
4.071
9.563
5.379
14.942
2010
129,716
lpcd Demand
2015
184,498
lpcd Demand
95
58
12
165
95
58
12
165
0.36
4.498
2.746
0.568
7.812
5.790
13.602
7.651
21.253
0.36
6.397
3.906
0.808
11.111
8.236
19.347
10.883
30.230
2020
262,416
lpcd Deman
d
95
9.099
58
5.555
12
1.149
165
15.804
11.714
27.518
0.36 15.480
43.00
The scenario will be also evaluated under supply and demand management options.
For supply management, water supply will be augmented by introducing desalination
plant and reusing treated effluent for industrial and irrigation purposes or recycling
industrial waste water on site. It is assumed that UFW could be reduced to 25 % by the
year 2020 as a demand management intervention. A total of 13 scenarios will be
tested using WRM; these scenarios are:
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
Scenario 4:
Scenario 5:
Scenario 6:
Scenario 7:
responses
Scenario 8:
Scenario 9:
base line scenario for 2003 with current responses
status quo (BAU) scenario with current responses
medium growth (OPT) scenario with current responses
high growth (PESS) scenario with current responses
Status quo (BAU) scenario with water demand management responses
medium growth (OPT) scenario with water demand management
responses
high growth (PESS) scenario with water demand management
Status quo (BAU) scenario with water supply management responses
medium growth (OPT) scenario with water supply management
responses
Scenario 10: high growth (PESS) scenario with water supply management responses
Scenario 11: Status quo (BAU) scenario with water supply and demand management
34
Scenario 12: medium growth (OPT) scenario with water supply and demand
management
Scenario 13: high growth (PESS) scenario with water supply and demand
management
3.1.4 Application of WRM to Aqaba
This section describes the application of the Water Resources Management Model
(WRM) to Aqaba by projecting water demand for the next 15 years and analyzing water
balance at each node and determining the system efficiency and reliability. The model
operates on a daily time series to represent the dynamic of water supply and demand
at each node by routing the flow through the pipe network system. For this purposes,
daily values of the pumping rate (in m3/s as a model requirement) was acquired from
the record of the Ministry of Water and Irrigation. The daily pumping rate of year 1998
was considered to represent supply pattern for other years. A multiplier was used to
scale the data for any other year if pumping rate has been changed from one year to
another.
Demand data for each land use zone was acquired, smoothed and corrected into daily
bases by using a scaling factor (multiplier) for the whole city and for each zone.
After data preparation and processing for WRM operation, the following steps were
performed
1.
Preparation a schematic GIS diagram showing water distribution in Aqaba with
nodal points of supply, demand, diversion, confluence, treatments, and end
nodes.
2.
Storing the daily pumping rate for 1998 in m3/s to be retrieved and scaled for
further uses.
3.
Storing the time series of different demand at the 5 demand nodes; these nodes
are: the terminal reservoir, the high level reservoir, the low level reservoir, the
WAJ reservoir and the main trunk.
Prior to that, the daily values of the pumping rate were calculated for the years 19982003. These data were tabulated in a note pad and entered into the mainframe through
an interactive screen “Scenario editor”. This was used later to provide tools for the
selection, design and maintenance of model scenario, the definition of nodes and
reaches, and the configuration of elements. The data were imported to the time series
model. The screen was hyperlinked with the times series model which covers 365 or
366 days of daily values completed with no missing value. Any missing data was
estimated by taking the average of proceeding and succeeding values and then
recording it at the missing cell. As a model requirement, the flow must be in m 3/s. The
time series were selected at the level of the “node editor” to be associated with respect
to node input data. Some demand nodes needed modification because their input was
a fraction of the time series; therefore, with each time series, a scaling factor or
multiplier was stored. The multiplier can be used to convert unit measurement or to
scale historical time series to a new set of assumptions. The multiplier can be applied
also if the same pattern of time series is reused for different nodes by modifying their
absolute values. Time series were stored and managed in data base.
35
3.1.5 Analysis of Scenario Results.
For the purpose of determine the response to the pressure caused by the driving forces
(population growth and industrial expansion), different scenarios were evaluated under different
growth models:
a.
The Current State Scenario
Year 2003 was considered as a baseline year for further comparison. In this year, the
monthly inflow was evaluated as it varies from month to month as well for the monthly
demand. The maximum monthly flow of 1.50 MCM has been observed in July which is
considered the peak month. The tables displayed on the screen dump of Figure 13 and
14 summarize the annual mass budget and the annual sectorial demand for the year
2003. It can be noticed that the total demand has reached 9.22 MCM, while the
consumption represents only 6.55 MCM indicating that the losses are in the order of 36
% or 5.37 MCM. The supply demand ratio was high (98.75 %) for the domestic and
services sectors while it was relatively less for the industrial sector (89.88 %). This
because the model gives the first priority in water allocation to domestic uses. The
model gave relatively high reliability of 71.73 % with only a 3.2 % shortfall indicating
high model performance which would indicate a reasonable validity. Model calibration
with actual observation indicates that the model performance well for management of
water at the small scale level of Aqaba.
b.
Future Scenario under Current Response
Under the assumption that the UFW will remain at 36%, three runs were performed for
the three growth model (3.3 %, 5.3 % and 7.5 % annual increase in population). For the
first growth model, the annual mass budget for the year 2020 is presented in the table
displayed in Figure 15 while the annual sectoral projection is displayed in Figure 16.
It can be seen that the projected net water demand for 2020 is 8.32 MCM and the
losses are in the order of 6.81 MCM representing about 39% of the total inflow (17.5
MCM). Under this scenario the supply to demand ratio is about 72 % with 58.25 %
reliability and a total shortfall of 4.47 MCM (25.54 %). In evaluating the water sectoral
demand, it can be observed from Figure 10. That S/D ratio is above 90 % for the
domestic and services sectors while it is very low for the industrial sector. This
indicates that the model gives high or first priority in water allocation to the domestic
and services sectors with second priority to the industrial sector. The shortfall of 4.47
MCM has occurred on the expenses of water allocated to industries. This is a major
problem in the model that should be modified to consider all sector of the same
importance or at least give the users the option of determining allocation priority.
For the second growth model with 36 % UFW, supply to demand ratio has dropped to
about 54 % with a total shortfall of 9.67 MCM and a system reliability of 48.44 %.)
However, this would be a major water deficit that will occur by the year 2020 unless
certain supply and demand management measures are taken. Again, low priority was
given to the industrial sector by looking to the sectoral water demand) where the supply
to demand ratio has been calculated as 4 %.
The situation for the high growth model with keeping the UFW as 36 % is more severe.
The supply demand ratio has dropped to 40.69 % with a total shortfall of 16.41 MCM.
The system reliability has also dropped to 32.3 %. For sectoral water demand, S/D
ratio was calculated as 89.83 while it was zero for the industrial sector and 8.33 % for
the services. The same explanation can be given and the same intervention can be
suggested for model development in improving the model performance and reducing
the UFW.
36
Figure 13: Annual Mass Budget Summary for the Base Line Scenario for 2003.
37
Figure 14. Annual Sectoral Demand for the Base Line Scenario for 2003 .
38
Figure 15 : Annual Mass Budget Summary for the Status Quo Scenario for the Year 2020 When the UFW 36 %
39
Figure 16 : Annual Sectoral Demand for the Status Quo Scenario for the Year 2020 When the UFW 36 %.
40
The annual return flow (treated wastewater) that can be generated could reach about
2.5 MCM which could be used for restricted irrigation and landscaping. In additions,
industrial wastewater can be recycled or reused for cooling and washing raw material.
c.
Scenarios using Demand Management Option.
Considering the results of the previous set of scenarios where the current responses
has been kept as it is; i.e continuous assumption of 36 % UFW, the latter could be
reduced to reasonable and achievable figure of 25 %. This can be considered as
demand management option and thus three runs were performed under the three
growth models. The results indicates that the supply to demand ratio has reached
84.10 %, 63.19 % and 47.69 %, respectively under the three growth models indicating
that shortage is increasing. If the medium growth model is adopted, which is more
likely, the water management analysis will be different. In this case, out of 17.5 MCM
as a total supply, only 5.06 MCM or 28.94 % were lost as UFW and other physical
losses. The system reliability was 56.4 % and the total shortfall reached 44.41 MCM.
The mass budget summary results reveal that S/D for domestic sector is 98.59 and for
services, it is 81.23 % while for the industrial sector, the S/D has reached 19.53 %. The
system reliability for the domestic sector is 40.23 % while there is no reliability in the
system for the industrial sectors. The total amount of generated wastewater can reach
2.54 MCM that can be used again for irrigation and landscaping.
d.
Scenario using Supply Management Option
In this case, the UFW was kept at 36 % level but the supplies was augmented through
desalination water considering the shortages that were obtained from the three runs
under the current responses which were 4.47 MCM, 9.67 MCM and 16.41 MCM;
respectively for the three growth models.
Under the low growth model (3.3 %), an additional amount of 5 MCM of desalinized
water is needed to overcome the water shortage. Under this option, the model results)
indicate that the global S/D ratio and the system reliability are 95.17 and 70.74 %
respectively while the shortfall is 0.9 MCM. The annual sectoral demand results show
that the S/D ratio for all sectors were relatively high; they were 98.74 %, 88.20 % and
98.62 % for the domestic, industrial and services sectors respectively. An amount of
2.27 MCM could be generated as wastewater that can also be used for restricted
agriculture use and landscape irrigation.
For the medium growth model (5.3 %), the actual demand reached 20.76 MCM and the
losses were 11.82 MCM while the global S/D ratio was 90.86 and a reliability value of
63.59 was obtained. In this case, an additional 10 MCM of desalinated water was
needed to augment the deficit of 9.67 MCM. The results of annual sectoral demand
analysis show that the supply to demand ratio of 98.74 %, 78.62 % and 98.10 % are
obtained for the different sectors, namely domestic, industrial and services,
respectively. An amount of 2.06 MCM can be generated as wastewater.
The total water demand for the high growth model can reach 43.0 MCM by the 2020.
This will require a supply intervention by introducing a desalination plant with a capacity
of 20 MCM while keeping the UFW at the 36 % level.
In doing that the S/D ratio can reach 92.73 % and the reliability would be moderate in
the order of 66.22 %. The total shortfall is relatively small of about 6 % and the total
unallocated water is also small of about 0.24 MCM. In viewing the results of annual
sectoral demand, it can be concluded that S/D ratio for the different sectors are high;
they are 98.74 %, 82.82 % and 98.36 % for the domestic, industrial and services
sectors, respectively. The amount of generated wastewater can reach 2.62 MCM.
e.
Scenario using Demand and Supply Management Options.
In this case, the UFW was reduced from 36 % to 25 % as a demand management
option and supply as increased by adding desalination plants of different capacity
according to deficit. Three runs were made under the three growth model.
41
For the low growth model, an additional water supply of 5 MCM were needed which
can come from a desalination plant which results that the global S/D ratio is 97.94 and
the reliability is 77.23 whereas the total shortfall of 0.48 is recorded and amount of 1.78
MCM has not been allocated. The amount of treated effluent that can be used for
irrigation has been calculated by the model as 4.24 MCM.
The annual sectoral demand; result indicate that the S/D ratio for the domestic,
industrial and services are 98.73 %, 94.01 % and 100 % respectively. Adopting this
option may fulfill the system requirement and any possible shortage.
The annual mass budget summary under the medium growth model which indicates
that the supply to demand ratio is 97.17 % and the reliability is 71.86 %. The total
supply has reached 27.5 MCM with UFW of 7.8 MCM. The generated wastewater
amount of 4.46 MCM can be reused for irrigation and/ or recycled in the industries.
The results of scenario under the high growth indicates a S/D ratio of 97.79 %. This is
achieved by augmenting additional 20 MCM of desalination water to have a total supply
of 37.5 MCM. The amount of shortfall and the unallocated water are minimum with less
than 1 MCM. Sectoral S/D ratios show that their values are above 90 % indicating good
system adequacy and high satisfaction with losses of 10.4 MCM. Significant amount of
treated waste water have been generated, which should be used for irrigation or other
purposes.
f.
Summary of the Conclusion
Table 8 summarizes the results of the 13 model runs in terms of responses under
different WRM indicators for the base line of 2003 and the four management options.
The current water supply from Disi aquifers is 14.85 MCM and it can be increased to a
maximum amount of 17.5 MCM (Aqaba allocation by the MWI). It is clear that Aqaba
city will be under deficit by the 2020 unless certain measures are taken. The model has
examined these options in which the UFW can practically be reduced from 36% (at the
present) to 25% in the future (achievable). The reduction will be gradual so that UFW
can be reduced to 30% in 2010 and further be reduced to 25% by the year 2020.
It is anticipated that future responses will include supply and management measures
and the medium growth model most likely will prevail, and this would be the optimistic
response. As such and in addition to reduction of the UFW to 25%, the supply should
be augment through 10 MCM of desalinated water. Under such conditions, the global
demand to supply ratio would reach 79.17 and the sectoral S/D ratios will be 98.7%,
92.7% and 98.7% for the domestic, industrial and services sectors, respectively. Table
26 shows that the generated effluent varies from 1.62 MCM to 6.88 MCM. The latter
figure agrees with JICA projection (2001) in estimating that the treated effluent can
reach 7 MCM by the year 2020.
It is clear from the analysis of sectoral supply to demand ratio that the model gives high
priority in water allocation to the domestic and services sectors with less priority to the
industrial sector. This would be considered as a major set back to the model and as
such, the model should be modified to allow the users to enter their preferences and
priority in water allocation to different sectors. As the model is under development,
further verification by other users will allow for more flexibility and options to be added.
42
Table 8. Summary of the Results of the 13 Runs under Different Management Option for the Three Growth Models.
Scenarios
Indicators
Supply (MCM)
Population growth (%)
Multiplier
Supply/Demand ratio (%)
Global Efficiency (%)
Reliability (%)
Total Shortfall (%)
Total Unallocated (%)
Flooding Conditions
Sectoral Water Budget (%)
Domestic (S/D)
Industrial (S/D)
Services (S/D)
Domestic (Reliability)
Industrial (Reliability)
Services (Reliability)
Return flow amount (MCM)
Return Flow %
Baseline Current response
Water
supply
and
demand
management response
2003
14.85
3.30
1.00
95.80
63.00
71.73
3.20
0.64
0.00
Water demand
Management
response
BAU OPT PESS BAU OPT PESS
17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50 17.50
3.30
5.30
7.30
3.30
5.30
7.30
1.35
1.80
2.38
1.35
1.80
2.38
71.92 53.93 40.69 84.19 63.19 47.69
60.00 61.57 59.86 70.21 70.15 70.15
58.25 53.93 32.30 60.68 56.25 39.92
25.54 52.27 93.75 14.68 44.41 82.87
0.61
0.66
0.54
0.65
0.78
0.65
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Water supply
management
response
BAU OPT
22.50 27.50
3.30
5.30
1.35
1.80
95.17 90.86
58.78 56.93
70.74 63.59
3.97
7.49
0.69
0.61
0.00
0.00
PESS
37.50
7.30
2.38
92.73
57.39
66.22
5.93
0.64
0.00
BAU
22.50
3.30
1.35
97.94
68.90
77.23
2.14
7.91
0.00
OPT
27.50
5.30
1.80
79.17
70.75
71.86
2.91
0.81
0.00
PESS
37.50
7.30
2.38
97.79
71.48
72.30
2.37
0.79
0.00
98.75
89.88
98.75
51.96
38.63
52.33
2.76
18.61
98.74
36.40
92.01
51.87
0.00
43.84
2.16
12.34
98.74
88.20
98.65
51.87
35.89
52.05
2.27
10.17
98.74
82.82
98.36
51.42
21.92
50.69
2.62
6.97
98.73
94.01
100.00
51.05
41.37
100.00
4.24
18.79
98.73
92.67
98.70
51.05
38.90
51.51
4.46
16.25
98.73
94.11
98.73
51.05
40.55
51.78
6.88
18.33
96.95
3.98
68.03
47.49
0.00
23.29
2.17
12.38
89.83
0.00
8.33
36.90
0.00
0.00
2.15
12.31
98.73
63.07
98.28
51.05
2.19
50.96
2.54
14.55
43
90.59
19.53
81.23
50.23
0.00
39.45
2.54
14.50
94.49
0.25
43.15
44.20
0.00
4.38
2.53
14.44
98.74
78.62
98.10
51.42
13.12
50.14
1.62
5.90
3.2 Land Use Changes
3.2.1 Introduction
Analysis of existing and its change provides an invaluable tool for reform land use policy
and selection of tools for policy-implementation. Rapid land use changes are usually
accelerated by changeable socio-economic factors including rapid population growth,
industrialization, tourism and recreation, urbanization and agricultural intensification
(Millington et al., 1999; Al-Bakri, 2001; Zurayk et al., 2001; Tanrivermis, 2003). For all
groups of planners of Aqaba, a common question is shared: the future of the land and
what are the expected changes. To provide an answer to this question, contemporary tools
of GIS and remote sensing data can be used to analyze historical land use change and to
provide baseline data for spatial models of land use change. By this approach, causes,
locations, consequences and trajectories of land use change can be predicted and
expected outputs from future scenarios can be simulated.
The declaration of Aqaba as a special economic zone in April 2001 resulted in obvious
changes in the socio-economic aspects of the area and expected to have further impacts
on land and its use in the future. Therefore, this component of the project was focused on
mapping land use and its changes in Aqaba between 1990 and 2004. Analysis of land use
change was made for the previous period and results were incorporated within a dynamic
land use change model to predict land use after fourteen-year period.
3.2.2Methodology
a.
Mapping of existing land use
The method of land use mapping was based on the interpretation of multispectral satellite
imagery of SPOT HRV taken on 1990 and 2003 with a spatial resolution of 10m. Both
images were linearly-enhanced to facilitate visual interpretation. An on-screen digitizing
was carried out to delineate land use parcels from the HRV images, following the
classification scheme of CORINE, level 3. Results of interpretation were verified by a
ground survey, carried out in September 2004. Digitized map of the 2003 image was then
updated to represent land use in 2004 by adding changed parcels between 2003 and
2004. All stages of ground survey were carried out with the aid of a GPS unit with
positional error of less than 5m. Land use maps were then analyzed to calculate
percentage land use in the two different periods.
b.
Land use change
Analysis of land use changes was carried out within GIS to calculate percentage land use
in both dates and the percentage land use change for each CORINE class. Both maps
were converted into a raster format (grid) and then were crossed-tabulated to carry out
proportion of land use change for each class between 1990 and 2004. The output table
was then exported to a spreadsheet to calculate percentage land use and its change.
c.
Modeling of land use change
Results from previous phase were used to predict future land use change. This was
carried out by the Markov chain equation, which was constructed and tested for the land-
44
use distributions in 1990 and 2004 (period 1). The same procedure was then followed out
for predicting land use for the second period (period 2, 14-year interval). The matrix model
relates the future state vector of the system Vfut, to the present state vector Vpres (current
land use) by multiplying it by the transition matrix MT (probability matrix) as following:
MT.Vpres = Vfut = Vprest+T
This procedure can be used repeatedly, extending the forecast to distant future states by
step T. However, the model was executed for one step (run) to obtain reliable prediction,
as accuracy usually decreases with time steps (Aaviksoo, 1993; Muller and Middleton,
1994; Pontius and Malanson, 2004).
In order to construct the transition matrix, the total area of each land use where a change
of type i into type j is observed. The set of all possible transitions i to j, divided by the total
area of type i in the initial state, constitutes the probability pij of the changing type i into
type j over the time period separating the two maps. Computation of state vector and
transition matrix was done in spreadsheets for all CORINE classes.
Detailed calculations of land use change of 1990-2004 (period 1) and 2004-2018 (period
2) is shown Table 9 an 10.
3.2.2 Results and discussion
Existing land use map of 2004 (Figure 17) showed an intensive activity around the
shoreline and city centre. Other areas were mainly area open spaces with little or no
vegetation extending from the Gulf of Aaba to Wadi Araba in the north. Other areas were
mainly dominated by bare rock in the east and east north. Compared with the total area of
Aqaba, urbanized and industrial areas formed a considerable proportion of the area and
reflected the rapid growth and development of the area. Analysis of land use maps of 1990
(Figure 17) and 2004 (Figure 18) showed obvious changes between the two dates. An
incremental change was observed for most classes of land use. Land use maps were also
analyzed in terms change-type.
The major trends of change observed between 1990 and 2004 were as following:
1.
2.
Expansion of the urbanized areas: continuous urban fabric was obviously expanding
and at the same time 46 % of discontinuous urban fabric was changing into
continuous urbanized area. Some buildings and a considerable fenced area was
added to the east of the airport. All other urbanized classes and facilities were also
increased, particularly around the eastern shoreline of Aqaba. Expansion of streets
and road networks was also indicated in the study area.
Small irrigated areas started to appear in the area with treated wastewater for
irrigation.
Results from the previous stage were incorporated in the land use change model to predict
future land use of Aqaba. Results showed that similar trends of land use change will take
place in the future. The most obvious changes are urbanization and considerable increase
of the industrial and commercial areas. These changes are expected to be around the Gulf
area and in the north. Expansion of some industrial and port areas is also expected in the
southern parts of Aqaba. Less activity is expected in the east and north east of Aqaba as
the area is mountainous. However, some of the land is expected to be utilized as a storage
area, as shown in the land use map of 2004.
45
Application of the model for longer period was not carried out as its reliability would
decrease, particularly for anthropogenous areas were development and laws might
change. A yearly prediction of land use was also not carried out, as no time-series data
was available for the area. This was proved by running the model with a linear trend for
yearly changes between 1990 and 2004. Results of yearly changes between 1990 and
2004 deviated from the actual land use of 2004 and therefore the analysis was limited for
one period of fourteen years (Table 11). The use of the Markov chain model, however, is
highly recommended for land use scenarios suggested by the ASEZA. This can be done
using decision rules suggested by the Land Use Change (LUC) model developed by the
“Environmental Systems and Software (http://www.ess.co.at/) “after finalizing the LUC
model. The expected advantage of the LUC model over using the spreadsheets is the
output maps that shows the expected spatial distribution of land use.
46
Table 9:
Code
111
112
121
123
124
131
141
142
212
332
333
512
523
Percentage land use of Aqaba in 1990 and 2004 and expected land use of 2018 (calculations are shown in
table 10).
Land Use
Year 1990
Year 2004
Year 2018
2.43
Continuous urban fabric
0.81
1.49
Discontinuous urban fabric
1.13
1.75
2.02
3.52
Industrial or commercial
1.35
2.60
0.95
Port areas
0.39
0.61
2.27
Airport
0.70
1.52
0.23
Mineral extraction sites/Quarries
0.25
0.25
Green urban areas
0.11
0.13
0.15
1.37
Sport and leisure facilities/Parks and recreations
0.85
1.10
0.85
Permanently irrigated land
0.19
0.54
32.08
Bare rock
39.13
37.78
36.41
Open spaces with little or no vegetation / Bare soil
37.42
34.54
0.12
Water bodies/treatments
0.07
0.09
17.59
Red Sea/Gulf of Aqaba
17.58
17.60
Land use in 1990
Table 10: Percentage land use change between 1990 (row map) and 2004 (column map).
Land use in 2004
Class* 111
112
121
123
124
131
141
142
212
333
111
53.36 ------1.04
-0.02
112
34.84 33.20 ----4.98
1.75
-0.01
121
-1.70
41.36 22.28 --2.14
8.83
-0.04
123
--0.11
62.81 ---0.64
--124
----46.49 -----131
--4.11
--51.02 ---0.06
141
-0.19
-2.96
--64.86 ---142
0.19
-2.17
6.49
--6.41
55.68 -0.32
212
--------33.42 0.02
333
11.61 61.73 47.28 -42.97 36.06 21.62 29.61 66.10 95.44
332
-3.18
4.93
2.16
10.55 12.92 -2.14
-4.09
512
--------0.49
0.01
523
--0.06
3.31
---0.30
---
47
332
-------0.01
-1.17
98.82
---
512
--------4.62
30.33
-65.05
--
523
---0.02
--0.03
0.10
----99.86
Figure 17: Land use map of 1990.
48
Figure 18: Land use map of 2004.
49
Figure 19: Map of roads in 1990 and 2004
50
Table 11: Calculation of expected land use change between 2004 and 2018 using Markov chain.
Class
111
112
121
123
124
131
141
142
212
330
332
512
523
111
0.977
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.014
0.000
0.009
0.000
0.000
0.000
112
0.459
0.515
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.006
0.017
0.000
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
121
0.000
0.022
0.796
0.100
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.072
0.000
0.009
0.000
0.000
0.000
123
0.000
0.000
0.007
0.967
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.018
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.008
124
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
131
0.000
0.000
0.423
0.000
0.000
0.496
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.081
0.000
0.000
0.000
141
0.000
0.030
0.000
0.159
0.000
0.000
0.761
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.050
142
0.003
0.000
0.066
0.046
0.000
0.000
0.010
0.720
0.000
0.129
0.005
0.000
0.020
51
212
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.950
0.027
0.000
0.022
0.000
330
0.005
0.029
0.033
0.000
0.017
0.002
0.001
0.009
0.010
0.882
0.012
0.001
0.000
332
0.000
0.001
0.003
0.000
0.004
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.036
0.953
0.000
0.000
512
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.040
0.048
0.000
0.912
0.000
523
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.999
X
2004
1.49
1.76
2.60
0.61
1.52
0.25
0.13
1.10
0.54
34.58
37.76
0.09
17.59
=
2018
2.43
2.02
3.52
0.95
2.27
0.23
0.15
1.37
0.85
32.08
36.41
0.12
17.59
3.3
TELEMAC Model
3.3.1 Introduction
TELEMAC-2d solves the equations of Barré de Saint-Venant in the two horizontal space
co-ordinates U(x, y). The main results are the mean vertical velocity and water height.
The model is applied to the Gulf of Aqaba which is surrounded by major cities of
concentrated urban population, tourist and industrial activities, and heavy land and sea
transport activities.
The purpose of this work is to compute the free surface flow in the Gulf of Aqaba using
the TELEMAC-2D model of the TELEMAC software. The Model will be used to compute
the field currents generated in the Gulf under
the influence of two forcing parameters: Tide and Wind. The pollution evolution in the
Gulf has been be simulated using SUBIEF-2D from the
TELEMAC system. The dilution of a passive tracer
caused by currents generated in the Gulf is also simulated.
3.3.2Characteristics of the Gulf of Aqaba
The Gulf of Aqaba has steep walls dropping to a maximum depth of 1800 m in some
places. The climate in the Gulf region is arid with an annual rainfall of about 35 mm and
a mean daily air temperature ranges from 14 oC in January to 32 oC in August. The
average annual evaporation rate is 3500 m/year. As a result, the salinity is extremely
high ranging from 41.2 to 49.9 oC.
Water temperature at the surface varies seasonally from 22 oC in January to 32 oC in
August. While below at about 250-300m, it maintains a constant temperature of about
21.5 oC. At depths greater than 300m, the water is homogenous and has a constant a
temperature in the range of 21-22 oC.
Tides in the Gulf of Aqaba are oscillatory, semi-diurnal with an average spring range of
0.5 m and with a mean sea level up to 1m higher in winter. Maximum observed currents
in the Gulf of Aqaba are Low. The direction of the wind in the Gulf is slightly east to north
with maximum speeds of less than 20 m/sec. The average monthly speeds range
between 4.6 to 7.5 m/s. Occasional winter storms that do not exceed two to four times
per year occur from the south and may last for one to two days each time at the
maximum.
3.3.3Water Quality Issues
The major threats to the marine environment of the Gulf of Aqaba are related to urban,
tourism, and industrial development. The industrial and tourism activities have been
associated by different kind of pollution ranging from air and dust pollution to seepage
and return flow causing negative impact on the ecosystem of the Gulf.
Industrialization contributes significantly to the pollution of marine environment. The
principle industries include the thermal power plant, the fertilizer factory, and the cement
factory. These factories discharge heated cooling water into the Gulf of Aqaba at a rate
of 5.56 m3/sec which. has a temperature (3 oC) above marine water temperature at the
discharge point. Moreover, there are three major ports operating to import and export
52
various products including phosphate, potash, fertilizers, oils and some dangerous
industrial chemicals. The chronic environment problem in Aqaba is the phosphate dust
emerging during loading/ unloading of raw material.
Large areas of the Gulf of Aqaba coast have been developed into beach resorts.
Uncontrolled tourist activities have caused damage to coral reefs by anchors, tourist’s
boats. Corals breakage by divers constitute a serious threat to the marine environment.
A thorough understanding of the sources of pollution across the Aqaba Gulf, including
urbanization, tourism, industrialization, and oil pollution and how all these forms of
pollution affect the marine environment in the Aqaba Gulf is required in order to
implement appropriate remedial and preventive measures to protect the delicate
ecosystem of the Aqaba Gulf.
3.3.4 Objectives for TELEMAC Modeling
1. Compute the current fields in the Gulf of Aqaba that are generated by;
a. Tide.
b. Tide and Wind.
2. Underline the influence of tide and wind on the local hydrodynamic (scalar velocity
and water depth).
3. Compute the pollutant evolution in the Gulf of Aqaba. The dilution of a passive tracer
under the influence of currents generated by tide and wind is to be simulated.
3.3.5 Model Construction
a.





Mesh Description
Criteria used in generating the Mesh : 3000 m, 1000 m, 200 m and 20 m (Figure 20).
Number of Elements: 24532
Number of Nodes: 12754
Maximum Elevation: 1600 m
Minimum Elevation: 0 m
53
Figure 20: Refined Mesh for the modeled section of the Gulf of Aqaba. Criteria used are
3000 m, 1000 m, 200 m and 20 m.
b.
Boundary Condition

Upstream Boundary: Begins at boundary point number 1 (Global Number 24) and
coordinates (X= 642127.0, Y= 3110380), and ends at boundary point number 7
(Global Number 24) and coordinates (X= 659332.0 Y= 3113890).
Depth condition (open boundary with prescribed depth,5)
Velocity condition (open boundary with free velocity,4)
Coastline: Begins at boundary point number 7 (Global Number 65) and coordinates
(X= 659332.0, Y= 3113890.), and ends at boundary point number 1 (Global
Number 24) and coordinates (X= 642127.0, Y= 3110380).
Depth condition (closed boundary ”wall”,2)




54
3.3.6Model Calibration and Validation:
a.
Hydrodynamic Model Validation
Comparisons between measured and simulated currents during the month of March,
June and August were performed. An example of simulated Vs measured parameters
for the month of March, 2000 are presented in Figure 21.
magnitude (m/s)
(a)
0.2
0.18
Measured
0.16
Simulated
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
Time (sec)
(b) 400
Measured
Simulated
Direction (Degree)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0
Figure 21:
100000
200000
300000
Time (sec)
400000
500000
Comparison between the measured and simulated currents for the
month of August (a) intensity (b) direction.
55
b.
Calibration
Calibration was performed by applying a new friction coefficient (f = 40), and a new
simulation was performed for the month of June. The old simullation with f=20 deviate
significantly from the measured value of velocity and direction. The new simulated
currents were compared to the measured ones to see if the model performance had
improved (Figure 22). It can be noted that even with modifying the friction factor, the
simulated values for velocity did not match very well. The observed value. May be the
model is good for open sea conditions.
(a)
0.06
Simulated
Velocity (m/s)
0.05
Measured
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Time (sec)
(b)
350
Simulated
Measured
300
Direction (degree)
250
200
150
100
50
0
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Tim e (sec)
Figure 22: Comparison between the measured and simulated currents for the month
of June 2000 for a new friction coefficient (a) intensity (b) direction.
3.3.7 Description of Scenarios Simulated
56
a.
Tide Scenario
The first computation involves studying the effect of tides only on the free water surface,
velocity and on the depth of water. The simulations performed for three periods: March
June and August. Tide and wind data used in TELEMAC computation are for the year
2000. The simulations were performed for 3 days corresponding to six tides in each
month (Figure 23).
0.8
JUNE
MARCH
AUGUST
0.6
Tide elevation (m)
0.4
0.2
0
0
12
24
36
48
60
72
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Time (Hr)
Figure 23: Tide data versus time used in the simulations for the month of March,
June and August.
57
b.
Tide and Wind Scenario
In these simulations, the wind effect is activated by assigning the value YES to the
keyword WIND in the steering file. The wind speed and direction for three days during
the month of March, June and August are shown in Figure 24. The duration of
hydrodynamic computation is three days (259200sec) in all the performed simulations.
8
March
June
August
(a)
7
Wind Speed (m/s)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
50000
100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
Time (sec)
400
(b)
June
March
August
350
Wind Direction ( o )
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Time (sec)
Figure 24: Wind data versus time used in the simulations for the month of March, June
and August: (a Magnitude, b Direction).
58
c.
Water Quality Conditions
Two water quality simulations were performed using SUBIF-2D. In both simulations, the
dilution of a passive tracer is calculated. The pollutant to be simulated is Nitrate.
However, the first simulation involves studying the dilution of a passive tracer under the
influence of currents generated by only tide, whereas, the second computation simulate
the dilution under the influence of currents generated by tide and wind. Each water
quality simulation was performed for 4 days; in each one the computation starts after
86400 seconds and ends after 345600 seconds.
The hydrodynamic results resulting from TELEMAC computation in the tide and wind
scenarios during the month of March, 2000 were exploited by the two SUBIEF-2D
computations respectively. A flow rate of 0.0035m3/s is imposed at three different
locations: orchards, hotel zone and palm district (Figure 25).
Figure 25: Locations of the discharge points imposed in Gulf of Aqaba for water
quality simulation
This amount of flow rate has been estimated based on the fact that the effluent from
Aqaba wastewater treatment plant ranges from 750 m3 to 1500 m3 in summer and winter
respectively. These amounts are used for irrigation of plant trees, forage crops,
59
landscape, palm orchards and the potential golf courses. It is expected with the best
irrigation management and systems, the losses can reach 20 to 25%. These amounts
will percolate to shallow groundwater and eventually will reach the Gulf of Aqaba. Figure
26 shows the tracer evaluation and the plume of pollutant after four days under the
influence of wind and tide.
For the purpose of our simulation, the amount of nitrate that reached the Gulf of Aqaba
is calculated as follow:


20
1d
1500m 3 / d *
100
86400 sec
3
Q  0.0035m / s
Q
Four additional scenarios were used:
1. Current condition of 2003 where
Q= 0.0035 m3/s with N concentration of 30 ppm
2. BAU scenario where
Q


20
1d
6000m3 / d *
100
86400 sec
= 0.0138 m3/s with N = 30 ppm
3. OPT scenario where Q 


20
1d
6900m3 / d *
100
86400 sec
= 0.0161 with N = 30 ppm
4. PESS scenario where Q 


20
1d
18850m3 / d *
100
86400 sec
= 0.2181 m3/s with N = 30 ppm
60
Figure 26: Tracer evolution in the Gulf of Aqaba at the end of the fourth day of March
under the influence of tide and wind.
61
3.3.8 Summary and Conclusion:
TELEMAC model was calibrated and executed to achieve the objectives of the
hydrodynamic and water quality study. The main steps involved in operating the model
are: construction setup, calibration/validation setup, mesh construction, bathymetry and
determination of boundary conditions. For model calibration and validation, comparison
between measured and simulation currents during three different months were
performed. Also three scenarios were simulated under hydrodynamic conditions; tide
scenario, tide and wind scenario and water quality simulation. For the water quality, two
simulations were performed using SUBEIF -2D model for passive tracers. They are
source points pollution which have been selected along the coast of Aqaba; the hotel
zone, the orchards area and palm farms. Nitrate as the main pollutant was studied at a
discharge rate of 0.0035 m3/s. Also nitrate generated by return flow and seepage was
submitted under four responses of future scenarios, namely management option under
three models. The discharge rates are 0.0138, 0.0161 and 0.2181 m3/s for the BAU,
OPT and PESS scenarios using all responses for the year 2020. Simulations with
TELEMAC-2D and SUBIEF–2D reveal the following:

The currents in the Gulf of Aqaba are not strong.

Currents resulted from the tide scenario ranged from 0 to 7 cm/s, 3 cm/s and 2
cm/s for the months of August, June and March, respectively.

When the wind effect is taken into account, the currents ranged from 0 to 10 cm/s
and 25 cm/s during March, June and August, respectively .

Changes in the directions of the currents with tide period were underlined. Rising
and crest tides produce flood currents while falling tides produce ebb currents.

For shallow waters, results show that the wind has more effect on current direction
and intensity than tides effects.

Eddy currents are observed at different location in the Gulf of Aqaba.

SUBIEF-2D was used to compute the dispersion of pollutants by currents
generated in the Gulf of Aqaba. Hydrodynamic dispersion of pollution at the three
locations is significant because of the currents generated either by tide alone or
wind .

Simulations show that dispersion of pollutants caused by currents generated under
the influence of wind was greater than the dispersion resulted from the currents
generated by tide only.

Results show that the greatest evolution of tracer under the tide and wind effect is
occurred at location No.1 (near hotels) and this can be attributed to the nature of
the flow direction in the Gulf that causes mixing of the tracer at that location with
the tracer concentration at the other two locations.
62

The highest dilution of the tracer was at location No.3 (palm farms). This is
because the currents generated under the influence of tide and wind was the
highest at this location.

Iit can be concluded from all the simulations performed in this study that the semi
enclosed configuration of the Aqaba Gulf has affected the hydrodynamic and water
quality behavior in the Gulf and makes it more susceptible to pollution.

Finally, the results of the 2-D model did not produce enough results for tracer
pollution, estimating scalar velocity and magnitude. Therefore, it is recommended
to use 3-D model under the conditions of the Gulf of Aqaba.
63
IV.
DISSEMINATION AND EXPLOITATIONS
The dissemination plan that was prepared in the second year was followed to expose
the project activities to as many audiences as possible to involve the stakeholder of the
project activities. In this regards, several presentation were made in national and
international conference explaining how the project is contributing to the sustainable use
of natural resources in Aqaba area. Now, involved stakeholders in Aqaba in specific and
the country in general are aware of the problem of scarcity of water resources and the
future risk of environment pollution. For the purpose of dissemination and exploration,
the following tasks were performed.
1.
Representative of different stakeholders from Aqaba Governorate attended the
workshop which was held in parallel to the third board meeting in Aqaba. The
following agencies were represented: Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority,
Aqaba Water Authority, Jordan Environmental Society/Aqaba Branch, Friends of
the Earth/Med East (NGO), and the Marine Science Station.
2.
A special one day seminar will be organized by ASEZA to discuss the result of
Jordan Case Study and the findings of the Ph.D dissertation. Participants from the
following organization will attend this seminar: ASEZA, different NGO’s, Ministry of
Environmental, Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Water and
irrigation, Marine Science Stations and the other local agencies from the city of
Aqaba.
3.
The project activities were presented in the following conferences:
Shatanawi, M., Naber, G., and Naber, S. “Management of Future Water Supply
and Demand for Aqaba City in Jordan. To be presented at the 7th International
Water Symposium in Cannes, France June 26-July 1, 2005).
Shatanawi, M. Z. Al-houri , C. Freissinet, Y. Mensencal, M. Badran and R.
Manasrah “Tidal Force and Wind Effect on the Hydrodynamics of the Gulf of Aqaba
Using Telemac-2D”. Presented at the INCO-MED Conference, Amman, June 14,
2004.
Freissinet, C. , al-Houri, Z., Mensencal, Y., Shatanawi, M. “ Gestion Durable des
ressources en Eau en zone Cotier – SMART” Paper presented at the 6th Cannes
Water Symposium, Cannes, June 2004.
4. A Ph.D student has completed her study on the application of WRM model to Aqaba.
The reference and the title of her work: Al-Naber, Ghada. (2005) “Policy Guidelines
For Sustainable Water Resources Management In Aqaba Governorate Catchment
Areas Using Decision Support System (DSS). A Ph.D. dissertation submitted to the
University of Jordan as a partial requirements for the Ph.D. degree.
64
V. CONCLUSION
Most of the coastal cities in arid areas are confronted with insufficient water supply or
they are the most downstream users of the already exploited water resources. Thus,
they have to obtain their water at very high cost by relying on water importation from
other basin or using other expensive alternatives such desalination. On the other hand,
the expansion of coastal cities are usually associated with high water demanding
activities such as increased industrial and tourism development as well as other
economic activities. The above conditions will result into immediate threats to the
environment and marine ecosystem caused by upstream pollution, wastes generated by
people, municipal and industrial effluent, oil spills, erosion, and discharge from thermal
power plants and air pollution. These problems and threats require an integrated coastal
zone management (ICZM) and holistic water resources management approaches.
The city of Aqaba is no exception to that, water resources are imported from the nonrenewable aquifer of Disi; industrial activities are increasing; tourism is expanding;
transportation from and into the city is increasing; port loading and unloading is
expanding; and finally, the population will grow at high rate. These are the expected
results of policy oriented decision of converting Aqaba into a free zone area. The
activities associated with that decision will put high pressure on the natural resources by
affecting the environmental setting and the ecosystem. Therefore, an integrated
approach is needed to take into consideration all challenges of maintaining a healthy
ecosystem, improving the quality of water, associating land use in planning, shifting to
demand oriented water resources management, and incorporation the socio-economical
dimension into planning process.
The case study of Aqaba is different from other case studies as it is located on narrow
Gulf while other case studies and basins are located on the open seas. Water resources
in Aqaba area are scare and therefore, water supplies are transported from other basins.
The demographic change are more or less associated to industrial, tourist and transport
activities, and therefore is different from the rest of Jordan. Population growth is also
linked to the political stability in the region and to the growth of economical development
in the city. The rise in population was due to natural growth and the internal migration of
people attracted by job and investment opportunity in the city.
The socio-economical analysis and the demographic changes reveal that Aqaba has
passed into three different growth rates for the last thirty decades. During the first
decade (1974 – 1984) the rise in population was 7.3%; the second decade (1984 –
1994), witnessed a 5.3% increase in population, while the population increase during the
last ten years (1994 – 2004) had slowed down to 3.3%. These different growth
percentages were considered in building the future growth models; normally the status
quo model (3.3%) the medium growth model (5.3%) and the high growth model. In
scenario analysis for projection of water demand, these models were taken as BAU,
OPT and PESS scenarios. The projected water demand along with water supply, were
used as input to the WRM.
Within the socio-economical framework, the institutional development was evaluated
showing the importance and the significant of Aqaba to the country. The Aqaba Special
65
Economic Zone Authority was given the opportunity to take the responsibility of many
local agencies in developing the city as a major duty free economic development node
for tourism, recreation, services, professional services, multi-nodal transportation and
value added industries in the Middle East. After 5 years of practices, the results were not
to the expectation. The goals that were set for 2005 by different consulting companies in
terms of population growth and economical development were not achieved. For
example, it was estimated in 1999 by different studies that the population of 2005 would
reached 115,000. The results of 2004 census have showed that the population of 2004
was recorded as 89,000 while the population of 2005 could be estimated of 91.200.
Also, the slow down of population increase to 3.3% is another indicator. Therefore, it
was recommended that ASEZA should revisit its policy and planning taken the results of
this study into account.
The water resources model was used to evaluate the dynamic of water supply and
developmental and provides a set of management responses for sustainable use of
scare water resources. The model shows that Aqaba will suffer in the near future
shortages of water supply that has to be overcome by supply and demand management
options. The demand management responses would include reducing the unaccounted
for water from a current figure of 36% to 30% by 2020 and further reduction to 25% by
the year 2020.
The demand management option will not be enough to reduce the gab between supply
and demand and therefore, supply has to be augmented. Since current supplies from
Disi aquifers are limited to 17.5 MCM at the maximum, new supplies would depend on
the desalinated sea water. The model evaluates the effect of introducing different
capacity of desalination plants, on the various indicators such as supply demand ratio. A
significant amount of 7 MCM of return flow is projected for 2020 by the WRM if the high
growth model was adopted. The amount of return flow (reclaimed waste water from
municipal or industrial) that have been estimated by the model should be used for
restricted irrigation of forest and palm orchard or landscaping. Industrial waste can be
used on site or recycled for cooling or washing of raw material.
The land use changes were evaluated for ASEZA area of about 375km2 by acquiring two
satellite images for 1990 and 2004. Land use changes were determined during the 14
years period, and were linked to the water use pattern. For example, continuous urban
fabric was expanding and about 46% of discontinuous urban fabric has changed to
urbanized areas. The areas have witnessed another urbanized classes and facilities
especially around the eastern shoreline. Streets and road network were also expanded
significantly. Small irrigated areas started to appear in the areas which have been
irrigated by treated waste water. Assuming that similar trend of land use changes will
take place in the future, Markov series were used to predict the land use in 2018. The
most obvious changes are urbanization and considerable increase of the industrial and
commercial areas.
TELEMAC–2D model were applied to study the hydrodynamic of Aqaba Gulf in term of
the effect of tide and wind on the scalar velocity and the direction of the current. Also
SUBEIF-2D model was applied to simulate water quality for passive traces. They are
source points pollution that have been selected at three locations. Nitrate as a main
polluted was studied at different discharge rate simulating the current status and future
responses in 2020 under BAU, OPT and PESS scenario. The polluted plumes at
different concentration were simulated. Simulations and water quality indicators with
TELEMAD-2D and SUBIEF-2D reveal the following:
66






The current in the Gulf of Aqaba are not strong.
In shallow water areas, the wind has more effect on current direction and intensity
than tide effect.
Eddy currents are observed in many locations in the Gulf.
The hydrodynamic dispersion of pollution of three locations is significant either by
tide alone or by tide and wind.
The semi-enclosed configuration of the Gulf
of Aqaba has affected the
hydrodynamic and water quality behavior in the Gulf and makes it more susceptible
to pollution
For better simulation of hydrodynamic and passive trace, it is recommended to use
TELEMAD-3D and SUBIEF-3D models.
67
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70
VII. APPENDICES
LOCAL NETWORKS AND USER GROUPS
Key Stakeholders: Institutions who are involved in water management and who will
participate in the project
Institutional Stakeholders
MSS
Marine Science Station
AQWA
Aqaba Water Authority
MWI
Ministry of Water and Irrigation
JES
Jordan Environmental Society
ASEZA
Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority
FoEME
Friends of the Earth, Middle East
Phone Number and Address
P.O.
Box:
195
77110-Aqaba
JORDAN
Tel.:
+962
(3)
2015
144
Fax: +962 (3) 2013 674
Tel + 962 3 2014390
P.O. Box: 2412
11183
–Amman
JORDAN
Tel.: +962 (6) 5680100 OR 5683100
Fax: +962 (6) 5679143
P.O.Box 922821
Abdel Hameed Badies st.
Al Shumesani, Amman
Tel: 962 6 5699844
Fax: 962 6 5695857
P.O. Box: 2565
77110
Aqaba
Jordan
Tel.: +962 (3) 20357/8
Fax: +962 (3) 2034720
P.O. Box 9341
11191 Amman Jordan
71