Achieving Wider
Access to Higher
Education
Howard Samuels
Center, CUNY &
Ford Foundation,
New York, New York
February 25, 2010
Presentation by:
David Longanecker
President, Western
Interstate Commission
for Higher Education
(WICHE)
A Perfect Situation for
Widening Participation
and Success
But Is It A Perfect
Storm or Perfect
Opportunity?
The Perfect Storm:
Three Converging Waves
Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness
Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be
Competitive
Wave Three: What We Have in Resources
The Liberal Borrowings
Knocking on the College Door (WICHE)
Beyond Social Justice (WICHE)
National Center for Higher Education
Management Systems (NCHEMS) :
www.higheredinfo.org.
State Higher Education Executive Officers
(SHEEO), SHEF Report, February 2010.
The Converging Waves
Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness
Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be
Competitive
Wave Three: What We Have in Resources
Relationship Between Educational Attainment,
Personal Income, and Economic Strength
$30,000
High Income, Low Educational Attainment
High Income, High Educational Attainment
CT
State New Economy Index (2002)
Top Tier
Personal Income Per Capita, 2000
Middle Tier
NJ
Low Tier
MA
MD
$25,000
NH VA
DE
CA
AK
NV
FL
OH
IN
$20,000
TN
SC
AL
KY
WV
AR
OK
LA
MI
US
WI GA
OR
PA
NC AZ
MO
IA ME
TX
WY
ID
SD
NM
15%
20%
NY MN
WA
HI RI
VT
KS
NE
UT
ND
MS
Low Income, Low Educational Attainment
$15,000
IL
CO
25%
MT
Low Income, High Educational Attainment
30%
35%
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Source: NCHEMS
40%
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Maryland
New Jersey
Colorado
Virginia
Vermont
New Hampshire
New York
Minnesota
Rhode Island
Illinois
Washington
Hawaii
Kansas
California
Nebraska
North Dakota
Oregon
Utah
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Maine
Montana
Wisconsin
Delaware
Florida
South Dakota
North Carolina
Iowa
Missouri
Michigan
Alaska
Texas
Ohio
Arizona
Idaho
New Mexico
South Carolina
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Indiana
Tennessee
Alabama
Nevada
Kentucky
Louisiana
Arkansas
Mississippi
West Virginia
40
35
30
25
20
41.3
45
37.4
37.4
37.0
36.5
35.9
35.4
34.5
34.4
33.6
32.7
32.2
31.7
31.3
31.1
30.7
30.3
29.9
29.8
29.7
29.0
28.9
28.5
28.3
27.7
27.5
27.4
27.3
27.3
27.1
27.0
26.7
26.6
26.3
26.3
26.0
25.8
25.6
24.6
24.3
24.2
23.9
23.5
23.0
22.1
21.7
21.6
20.7
20.2
19.0
Percent of Population Ages 25-64 with a
Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
15
10
5
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey. Via NCHEMS
North Dakota
Hawaii
Wyoming
Iowa
South Dakota
Minnesota
Nebraska
Washington
New Hampshire
Maine
Wisconsin
Utah
Florida
Idaho
Vermont
North Carolina
New York
Alaska
Michigan
South Carolina
Delaware
Oregon
Rhode Island
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Montana
Kansas
Ohio
Mississippi
Connecticut
Indiana
Massachusetts
Colorado
Illinois
New Mexico
California
Nevada
Alabama
Oklahoma
Missouri
Virginia
West Virginia
Kentucky
Maryland
Georgia
New Jersey
Texas
Arkansas
Tennessee
Louisiana
10
8
6
5.1
12
11.9
11.3
11.2
11.0
10.8
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.3
10.2
9.8
9.8
9.7
9.3
9.1
9.1
9.0
9.0
8.9
8.8
8.8
8.7
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.5
8.4
8.3
8.3
8.2
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.0
8.0
7.7
7.6
7.4
7.3
7.2
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.5
14.2
Percent of Population Ages 25-64
with an Associate Degree
16
14
4
2
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey. Via NCHEMS
States Per Capita Income, 2007
Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Via NCHEMS
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher)
Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S. and OECD
Countries, 2005
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2007
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and
Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S.,
2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS
The White Caps on the First Wave
We’ve Been A Leader
But Slip-Sliding Away
Losing Ground:
Mixed Bag Nationally
Falling Internationally
And One Size Doesn’t Fit All
Really Two Stories – The Haves & the Have Nots
And the Perverse Public Policy Response
Question the data
Fight for Immigration Reform (Less and More)
The Converging Waves
Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness
Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be
Competitive
Wave Three: What We Have in Resources
WICHE Projections of High School Grads
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School
Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.
WICHE Projections of High School Grads
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School
Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.
High School Graduation Rates - Public High
School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four
Years Earlier, 2006
Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity Via NCHEMS
College-Going Rates – First-Time Freshmen
Directly Out of High School as a Percent of
Recent High School Graduates, 2006
Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity Via NCHEMS
Difference in Education Attainment
Between Whites and Hispanics (2006, Percent)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File. Via NCHEMS
Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/
Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with
an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census), Via NCHEMS
Patterns of U.S. High School and College Participation
and Completion by Age (Average Annual from 2005 to 2007)
100%
Not Much Happens After the Age of 24
80%
High School Participation
Earn High School Diploma or Equivalent – Levels off at Age 21
We are left with 13 percent of adults
with no high school diploma, and 60
percent with no college degree.
60%
Undergraduate College Participation – Peaks at Age 19,
Levels off at Age 30
40%
Complete Undergraduate College Degree – Peaks
and Levels off at Age 31
20%
0%
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Note: Includes associate and bachelor’s degrees, but not certificates.
AGE
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-07 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Sample)
The White Caps on the Second Wave
Those with whom we have succeeded are
declining
Those with whom we have not succeeded
are increasing
“Average” won’t sustain us, and may not
even be achievable
And, And One Size Doesn’t Fit All
Really Two Stories – The Haves & the Have
Nots
The White Caps on the Second Wave
And the Perverse Public Policy Response
Mission Creep
More focus on research
More focus on the highest achieving
Merit aid (institutional and state policy)
Enrolment caps, allowing creaming
Challenges to affirmative action
Relative comfort with the status quo
Including whining – it’s all their fault
Students for not being white
States for not being supportive
Feds for not willing to give lots with nothing in return
The Converging Waves
Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness
Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be
Competitive
Wave Three: What We Have in Resources
Source: SHEEO, SHEF 2008
Educational appropriations per FTE (constant $)
Net tuition revenue per FTE (constant $)
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
4
$7,044
$7,003
$6,760
$6,438
$6,533
$6,994
$7,544
$7,819
$7,814
$7,744
$7,558
$7,341
$7,109
$7,028
$6,801
$6,720
$6,975
$7,397
$7,608
$7,653
$7,767
$7,771
$7,635
$7,269
$6,517
$12,000
10
$10,000
$3,993
$3,936
$3,839
$3,673
$3,468
$3,302
$3,233
$3,223
$3,245
$3,335
$3,337
$3,325
$3,293
$3,181
$3,098
$2,997
$2,824
$2,617
$2,536
$2,480
$2,367
$2,304
$2,210
$2,113
$1,986
$6,477
8
$6,477
12
$8,000
6
$6,000
Public FTE enrollment (millions)
$4,000
2
$2,000
0
$0
Dollars per FTE
1983
Public FTE Enrollment
Life could have been worse
Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriations
and Total Educational Revenue per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1983-2008
Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition,
State, & Local Appropriations Public Research
Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final
Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS
Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State,
& Local Appropriations Public Masters and Baccalaureate
Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final
Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS
Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition,
State, & Local Appropriations Public 2-Year
Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final
Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS
Projected State and Local Budget Surplus
(Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016
Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009 Via NCHEMS
The White Caps on the Third Wave
Prospects look bleak for much more in the
short term
New Normal suggests a very different
future than past.
Triage often sacrifices the most vulnerable
The White Caps on the Third Wave
q
And the Perverse Public Policy Response
A stimulus package that discouraged
innovation and change
q A funding structure that inadequately supports
equity oriented institutions
q Mission creep, which reduces teaching
productivity
q A few cuts in need-based aid (Illinois)
q Tax cuts
q
The U.S. story – Three Huge
Converging Waves
Demographics present a challenge, all else being equal
The finances are perilous
We have been educationally competitive, which has
made us economically competitive and comparative
just, but:
Were slipping
And the good life has not been equitably distribute
Public Policy inconsistent with the times or their
needs
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity One: Our Economic
Competitiveness
Opportunity Two: Our Changing
Demographics
Opportunity Three: Our Revenue Base
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity One: Our Economic
Competitiveness
We remain the wealthiest country in the World.
We have “the financial capacity”
v Some Positive Policy Trends
v
v
Benchmarking to Global Indexes
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity Two: Our Changing
Demographics
We start from a reasonably successful base,
over all
Improvements in serving students of color,
particularly Hispanic students, will reap huge
benefits
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity Two: Our Changing
Demographics
v
Positive Policy Trends
v
Pay for Outcomes
v
v
v
Evidence based
Many focused on reducing the Gaps
Renewed focus on smart need-based student
financial aid
v
v
Preservation
New Initiatives
Less is More in the Curriculum
v Reinvention of Remediation (CAT)
v Broader adoption of the Equity Scorecard
v Federal Initiatives – SAFRA & AGI
v
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity Two: Our Changing
Demographics
v
Positive Policy Trends
For Adult Students
v More flexible financing
v
v
v
v
v
Amnesty
Payment plans
Tailored financial aid (Arkansas)
Concierge Service
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity Three: Our revenue base
Seems Dire
v And Is Daunting
v But reason for optimism
v
v
Room for improvement in productivity
Productivity: Total Funding per
Degree/Certificate (Weighted*, 2006-2007)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
29,075
30,619
33,273
33,756
34,330
34,594
36,498
37,823
38,364
38,365
39,516
39,516
39,918
42,177
42,198
42,408
42,693
42,847
42,873
42,948
43,820
44,272
44,371
45,833
45,904
46,522
46,880
47,453
47,672
47,749
48,611
49,894
52,491
52,572
52,888
53,535
54,553
56,090
56,280
56,888
56,960
59,420
59,465
63,822
64,934
65,975
66,623
72,846
75,744
79,794
86,009
100,000
Tuition and Fees
State and Local
20,000
10,000
-
Alaska
Wyoming
Delaware
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Vermont
Maryland
Nevada
New York
Alabama
Pennsylvania
Maine
California
New Mexico
Tennessee
Michigan
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Nebraska
Indiana
Ohio
Nation
Missouri
Virginia
Iowa
Kentucky
Oregon
Minnesota
Arkansas
Arizona
Mississippi
Illinois
New Hampshire
Idaho
Wisconsin
Louisiana
Georgia
Kansas
South Dakota
Montana
West Virginia
Oklahoma
North Dakota
Utah
Washington
Colorado
Florida
*Adjusted for value of degrees in the state employment market (median earnings by degree type and level)
Sources: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008; NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity Three: Our revenue base
Seems Dire
v And Is Daunting
v But reason for optimism
v
Room for improvement in productivity
v Capacity in many states
v
State Tax Capacity & Effort
Indexed to U.S. Average
State Tax Capacity (Total Taxable Resources Per Capita)
1.7
DE
1.6
1.5
1.4
CT
NJ
1.3
MA
AK
1.2
NH
1.1
1.0
WY
MD
VA
CO
NV
IL
WA
NY
MN
CA
USNE
PA
SD
0.9
TN
0.8
RI
WI
NC
KS
GA
HI
MOFL IN IA
OH
VT
OR TX
AZ ND
MI
UT KY
SC
ID
NM
LA
AL
OK
WV
MT
AR
0.7
ME
MS
0.6
0.6
0.8
1.0
State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate)
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO)
1.2
1.4
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity Three: Our revenue base
Seems Dire
v And Is Daunting
v But reason for optimism
v
Room for improvement in productivity
v Capacity in many states
v And only way to progress is to embrace the
equity agenda – Beyond Social Justice
v
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Opportunity One: Our Economic Competitiveness
Opportunity Two: Our Changing Demographics
We start from a reasonably successful base,
over all
Improvements in serving Hispanic students will
reap huge benefits
Opportunity Three: Our Revenue Base
q Productivity enhancements will be key to
equity enhancements
q Many States & Feds have the capacity if it can
develop the Will
q Feds will need to target funding to help those
at capacity today.
The Colorado Story – Three Real
Opportunities
Enough Already