SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
SWS Surveys
Leading up to the
May 14, 2001 Elections
1
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Official statistics give the FULL COUNT of
votes, but allow the vote to be related to only
one factor, namely LOCATION of the voter.
Using a STATISTICAL SAMPLE of the voters, a
survey allows votes to be related to as many
factors as are asked, for ex. LOCATION, AGE,
GENDER, RELIGION, SOCIAL CLASS,
ECONOMIC STATUS, OPINIONS ON ISSUES,
VOTING MECHANICS, etc.
2
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Election Research Project I
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey
Sample Size
:
Error margins
Philippines
NCR
North/Central Luzon
South Luzon
Visayas
Mindanao
1,500 registered
voters/300 spots
:
:
:
:
:
:
± 3%
± 6%
± 6%
± 6%
± 6%
± 6%
3
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey (n = 1,500 registered voters)
Sample proportions
Urban
Rural
51%
49
Sample weights
NCR
North/Central Luzon
South Luzon
Visayas
Mindanao
15
22
20
20
23
4
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey (n = 1,500 registered voters)
Sample quota
Sex
Male
Female
Age
50%
50
Sample Proportions
18-24
25-34
35-44
45 & Above
Socioecon. Class
ABC
D
E
12
26
26
36
11
69
20
5
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey (n = 1,500 registered voters)
Sample Proportions
Educational Attainment
Up to elementary
28%
Some/Completed high school 34
Vocational/Some College
19
Completed/Post College
18
No formal education
1
Primary Language Spoken
Tagalog
Cebuano
Ilocano
Aklanon
Bicolano
Kapampangan
Others
39
25
8
7
6
3
13
6
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey (n = 1,500 registered voters)
Sample Proportions
Religion
Roman Catholic
84%
Iglesia ni Cristo
3
Born Again
3
Islam
3
Protestant
2
Seventh Day Adventist
1
Aglipayan
1
Baptist
1
Others
3
7
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey (n = 1,500 registered voters)
Charismatic Group Membership Sample Proportions
Couples for Christ
2%
El Shaddai
1
Charismatic Renewal Movement
0.4
Singles for Christ
0.3
Jesus is Lord
0.3
Prex
0.2
GKK
0.2
Legion of Mary
0.2
Love Flock
0.2
Others
3
None
92
8
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey (n = 1,500 registered voters)
Political Party Identification
PPC
LDP-Puwersa ng Masa
LAKAS-NUCD
Liberal Party
NPC LAKAS
PROMDI
Others
None
Sample Proportions
8%
7
3
1
1
1
4
75
9
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey (n = 1,500 registered voters)
Sample Proportions
Frequency of watching TV
Daily, 3+ hours a day
44%
Daily, 1-2 hours a day
18
Daily, less than an hour a day
6
A few days per week
7
Seldom
24
Never
1
10
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey (n = 1,500 registered voters)
Frequency of listening
Sample Proportions
to the radio
Daily, 3+ hours a day
30%
Daily, 1-2 hours a day
17
Daily, less than an hour a day 7
A few days per week
9
Seldom
33
Never
4
11
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey (n = 1,500 registered voters)
Frequency of reading
newspaper
Daily
A few times a week
Weekly
Not even once a week
Never
Sample Proportions
19%
12
8
52
9
12
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Official votes are not open for research, even
to study the relation of votes for different
positions, like President and Vice-President.
The full raw data of a survey can be electronically stored for research of any kind, including
relations between votes for different positions.
13
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
SWS CD-ROMs
Available at the SWS Survey Data Library
Filipino Report Card on
Pro-Poor Services
Philippine Round of the
1996 World Values Survey
(March 30 - April 25, 1996)
Data & Documentation
Data & Documentation
SWS CD No. 2000-4
SWS CD No. 2000-9
14
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
SWS CD-ROMs
Available at the SWS Survey Data Library
Philippine Legislators'
Committee on Population
and Development (PLCPD)
Social Attitudes of Filipinos
Towards Family Planning
Interest Groups
SWS June 7 - July 15, 1991
National Survey
Data and Documentation
SWS CD No. 2000-10
15
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
International Social Survey
Programme (ISSP) Modules
ISSP 1999 Module on
Social Inequality III
in the Philippines
ISSP 1998 Module on
Religion II
in the Philippines
Data & Documentation
Data & Documentation
SWS CD No. 2000-2
SWS CD No. 2000-3
16
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
International Social Survey
Programme (ISSP) Modules
ISSP 1997 Module on
Work Orientations II
in the Philippines
ISSP 1996 Module on
Role of Government III
in the Philippines
Data & Documentation
Data & Documentation
SWS CD No. 2000-11
SWS CD No. 2001-3
17
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Surveys on the Situation of
Youth in the Philippines
SWS November 1997 Surveys
on the Situation of Youth
in the Philippines
SWS CD No. 2000-6
SWS April 1996 Surveys
on the Situation of Youth
in the Philippines
SWS CD No. 2000-6
18
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
The timing of surveys about voting behavior
can be PRE-ELECTION, DAY-OF-ELECTION,
or POST-ELECTION.
19
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
DAY-OF-ELECTION SURVEYS (‘exit polls’) are
most accurate since:
(1) pre-election voting intentions can still
change anytime before election day;
(2) memory of the vote is still fresh;
(3) above all, there are still few reports in
mass media about trends in the vote count.
20
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Post-election: SWS/Ateneo May 1986 survey
(n = 2,000) “Who did you vote for in the
Feb 1986 snap election?”
Philippines
Voted for Cory Aquino
64%
Voted for Ferdinand Marcos
27%
No answer
9%
21
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
ABS-CBN/SWS
Day-of-Election Surveys
ABS-CBN/SWS
MAY 11, 1998
DAY-OF-ELECTION SURVEY
ABS-CBN/SWS
MAY 8, 1995
DAY-OF-ELECTION SURVEY
Data & Documentation
Data & Documentation
SWS CD No. 2000-7
n = 6,141 voters
SWS CD No. 2000-8
n = 1,749 voters
22
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count
Philippines, May 11, 1998
Comelec Count*
*
**
SWS Exit Poll**
COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998
Sample Size = 5,538; Error Margin = ±1.3% (top position); excludes Marcos
23
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count
Philippines, May 11, 1998
Comelec Count*
*
**
SWS Exit Poll**
COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998
Sample Size = 5,538; Error Margin = ±1.3% (top position); excludes Marcos
24
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Vice-Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count
Philippines, May 11, 1998
Comelec Count*
*
**
SWS Exit Poll**
COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998.
Sample size= 5,298; error margin= ±1.4% (top position).
25
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Vice-Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count
Philippines, May 11, 1998
Comelec Count*
*
**
SWS Exit Poll**
COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998.
Sample size= 5,298; error margin= ±1.4% (top position).
26
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
The 1998 SWS exit poll showed the high
significance of CLASS and the IGLESIA NI
CRISTO, compared to GENDER or AGE.
27
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
1998 ABS-CBN/SWS Day of Election Poll:
For President
Estrada
De Venecia
Roco
Osmeña
Lim
De Villa
Santiago
Enrile
Dumlao
Morato
RP
39.2%
16.4
13.5
12.2
9.2
4.8
3.1
1.4
0.2
0.05
ABC
23%
12
26
6
20
10
1
0.8
0
0.3
D
38%
16
13
12
9
5
4
2
0.2
0.03
E
48%
18
8
14
6
2
2
1
0.4
0
28
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
1998 ABS-CBN/SWS Day of Election Poll:
For President
Estrada
De Venecia
Roco
Osmeña
Lim
De Villa
Santiago
Enrile
Dumlao
Morato
RP
Catholic
39.2%
16.4
13.5
12.2
9.2
4.8
3.1
1.4
0.2
0.05
37%
15
15
13
10
5
3
1
0.2
0.05
Other
Iglesia
Christian ni Cristo
29%
26
11
16
7
4
3
2
0.4
0
81%
6
3
2
3
2
0
1
0
0
Islam
Aglipayan
63%
25
3
2
4
2
0.5
0
0.6
0
35%
28
5
9
8
0
9
4
0
0
29
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
1998 ABS-CBN/SWS Day of Election Poll:
For President
Estrada
De Venecia
Roco
Osmeña
Lim
De Villa
Santiago
Enrile
Dumlao
Morato
RP
39.2%
16.4
13.5
12.2
9.2
4.8
3.1
1.4
0.2
0.05
Male
40%
16
13
12
8
5
3
1
0.3
0.05
Female
38%
16
14
12
10
5
3
2
0.1
0.03
30
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
1998 ABS-CBN/SWS Day of Election Poll:
For President
Estrada
De Venecia
Roco
Osmeña
Lim
De Villa
Santiago
Enrile
Dumlao
Morato
RP
39.2%
16.4
13.5
12.2
9.2
4.8
3.1
1.4
0.2
0.05
18-24
39%
16
17
11
10
5
2
1
0.3
0.2
25-34
40%
17
14
12
9
4
2
2
0.04
0.1
35-44
39%
16
12
13
8
6
3
1
0.2
0
45+
38%
16
12
13
10
4
4
1
0.3
0
31
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
In the 2001 election race up to Apr 19-23, the
PPC-PnM-ind. score was stable at 8-4-1
nationally, but PPC was gaining momentum in
class ABC and class E.
32
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
LEADERS IN THE SENATORIAL RACE, BY COALITION
April 19-23, 2001
PPC PnM
Ind
April 1-4 , 2001
PPC PnM
Ind
Philippines
8
4
1
8
4
1
NCR
N/C Luzon
South Luzon
Visayas
Mindanao
9
8
8
9
6
3
4
4
3
6
1
1
1
1
1
9
8
8
9
6
3
4
4
3
6
1
1
1
1
1
ABC
D
E
12
8
8
0
4
4
1
1
1
11
8
6
1
4
6
1
1
1
33
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
VOTER PREFERENCES, PHILIPPINES
Apr 19-23
DE CASTRO
FLAVIER
ARROYO
DRILON
OSMEÑA
MAGSAYSAY
VILLAR
PANGILINAN
RECTO
Rank
1
2
3-5
3-5
3-5
6-7
6-7
8
9
Apr 1-4
% Rank
63
1
45
2
41 4-5
41
3
41
6
40 7-8
40
9
39 4-5
38 7-8
Mar 5-18
% Rank
61
1
45
2
41
6
43 3-4
40
5
39 3-4
36 7-8
41
9
39 10
%
59
46
41
44
43
44
40
39
35
34
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
VOTER PREFERENCES, PHILIPPINES
Apr 19-23
Rank
HONASAN
10
ENRILE
11
ANGARA
12
DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO 13
MERCADO
14-16
LACSON
14-16
PUNO
14-16
HERRERA
17-18
EJERCITO ESTRADA 17-18
%
32
31
30
28
27
27
27
24
24
Apr 1-4
Rank
15-16
12-14
11
12-14
10
12-14
15-16
17
18
Mar 5-18
% Rank
27 11-12
29 14
31 11-12
29 13
33 7-8
29 15
27 16
26 17
22 18
%
33
30
33
31
40
28
26
21
19
35
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
VOTER PREFERENCES, PHILIPPINES
Apr 19-23
TAÑADA
PAGDANGANAN
MONSOD
YASAY
RASUL
CHATO
CANOY
MADRIGAL
ADAZA
TAMANO
Rank
19
20
21
22
23-24
23-24
25
26
27-28
27-28
%
22
20
19
15
12
12
10
8
6
6
Apr 1-4
Rank
19
20-21
20-21
22
23
24
25
26-29
30
26-29
%
21
20
20
14
13
12
11
7
5
7
Mar 5-18
Rank
19-20
21
19-20
22
23
26-27
n.l.
26-27
24-25
28-30
%
16
15
16
14
13
7
n.l.
7
8
5
36
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
VOTER PREFERENCES, PHILIPPINES
Apr 19-23
NAVARRO
MORATO
LOZANO
CHAVEZ
SABIO
BAJUNAID
CASIL
NUEVA
Undecided/None
Rank
29
30
31
32-33
32-33
34-35
34-35
36
%
5
4
3
2
2
1
1
0.4
8
Apr 1-4
Rank
26-29
26-29
31-32
31-32
33
n.l.
35
34
%
7
7
4
4
3
n.l.
1
2
7
Mar 5-18
Rank
28-30
24-25
31
28-30
32-34
n.l.
32-34
32-34
%
5
8
3
5
1
n.l.
1
1
10
37
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
VOTER PREFERENCES IN CLASS ABC
Apr 19-23
FLAVIER
ARROYO
DRILON
OSMEÑA
MAGSAYSAY
PANGILINAN
VILLAR
DE CASTRO
RECTO
Rank
1
2
3
4
5-6
5-6
7
8
9
Apr 1-4
% Rank
65
1
63
3
61
2
56
8
53
9
53
5
52
7
50
4
48
6
Mar 5-18
% Rank
63
1
56 3-4
59 3-4
45 9-10
44
5
50
7
48
6
54
2
49
8
%
65
58
58
42
53
49
51
59
46
38
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
VOTER PREFERENCES IN CLASS ABC
Apr 19-23
MONSOD
TAÑADA
HERRERA
PAGDANGANAN
PUNO
CHATO
MERCADO
ENRILE
ANGARA
Rank
10
11
12
13
14
15-16
15-16
17
18
Apr 1-4
% Rank
45 10
41 11
34 13
32 20-22
29 14
26 23
26 12
25 17
24 15
%
40
35
30
21
27
17
33
24
26
Mar 5-18
Rank
11-13
19-20
19-20
21
14
23
9-10
16-17
11-13
%
36
26
26
21
34
17
42
28
36
39
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
VOTER PREFERENCES IN CLASS E
Apr 19-23
DE CASTRO
OSMEÑA
MAGSAYSAY
HONASAN
VILLAR
ARROYO
FLAVIER
ENRILE
RECTO
Rank
1
2-3
2-3
4
5
6
7-8
7-8
9
Apr 1-4
% Rank
57
1
41
2
41
3
38 13-14
35 9-12
34 7-8
33 13-14
33
6
32 15
Mar 5-18
% Rank
57
1
39 2-3
38 2-3
29
5
32 7-9
33 7-9
29
6
34 14
29 12-13
%
60
44
44
37
34
34
36
31
32
40
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
VOTER PREFERENCES IN CLASS E
Apr 19-23
Rank
PANGILINAN
10
ANGARA
11
DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO 12
DRILON
13
LACSON
14
MERCADO
15
EJERCITO ESTRADA
16
PUNO
17-18
HERRERA
17-18
Apr 1-4
% Rank
31 9-12
30 7-8
29 9-12
28
4
27 9-12
26
5
24 16-17
20 18
20 16-17
%
32
33
32
37
32
37
24
23
24
Mar 5-18
Rank
12-13
10-11
7-9
10-11
15
4
17
16
18
%
32
33
34
33
25
41
19
21
18
41
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
In the party-list race, there appear to be 4 clear
winners, 4 probable winners, and 8 more
possible winners on statistical chance alone.
42
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
PROPORTION OF INTENDED VOTES FOR PARTY LIST
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey (n = 1,500 registered voters)
LAKAS-NUCD-UMDP
BAYAN
MAD
AKBAYAN
ABA
ANAKBAYAN
Partido Manggagawa
AKO
PWP
ABANSE PINAY
VFP
KAMPIL
PROMDI
COCOFED
5.9%
5.6
5.1
5.0
2.8
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
PDP-LABAN
PEOPLE POWER
BANTAY BAYAN
LDP
ELDERLY
GABAY OFW PARTY
PPC
ABAKADA
AASENSO KA
DWP
KABAYAN
OFW
ALAGAD
1.5%
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
Note Figures below 0.8% not included.
43
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
At the local level, neither of the two major
political coalitions is dominant.
44
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
VOTING PREFERENCE FOR MAYOR
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey
Q: Among the mayoral candidates of your own town,
are you going to vote for a candidate affiliated with the
PPC, one affiliated with the PnM, or one affiliated with
neither?
Affiliated with PPC
29%
Neither PPC nor PnM
47
Affiliated with PnM
20
Note: Don’t Know and Refused responses (volunteered) not shown.
45
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
TRUST IN POLITICAL COALITIONS
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey (Row percentages)
Aware
Much
Little
trust Undecided trust
Net*
PPC
97%
45%
31%
22%
+23
PnM
96
42
32
24
+18
*Net ratings (% much trust minus % little trust) are first computed
before figures are rounded off.
46
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Voters tend to be mature:
* Few go for bandwagon voting,
command voting, or tactical voting.
• Fewer yet are affected by election surveys.
• Most say church people should not support
any candidate.
* Very many believe in the efficacy of their
individual votes.
47
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
LIMITED BANDWAGON VOTING
Q: Which is nearer to your opinion?
Apr 1923, 2001
Apr 816, 1998
Mar 25Apr 10,
1992
“Vote according to
one’s conscience”
82%
85%
86%
“Vote for the one you
think will win”
18
15
14
48
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
LIMITED COMMAND VOTING
Q: Which is more applicable to this barangay?
Apr 19- Mar 723, 2001 16, 1998
“Most people decide
for themselves on
whom to vote”
89%
82%
“Most of the people here
are just told by the
leaders for whom to vote”
11
15
49
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
LIMITED TACTICAL VOTING
Q: Which is closer to your situation at present?
Apr 1923, 2001
“Whether or not he/ she
is popular, I will vote for
the candidate with views
closest to mine”
87%
“Because the candidate I
like best is not too popular, 13
I will vote for another just
to help defeat a candidate
I dislike”
Apr 816, 1998
Mar 1621, 1998
90%
90%
10
10
50
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Limited effect of survey-news in 1998 senatorial election:
December 8-17, 2000 Social Weather Survey, Philippines, n = 1,200 adults
Rs (Respondents) of voting age in 1998
Rs who voted for Senator in 1998
Rs who got survey-news prior to
the 1998 election
Effect of the survey-news on R’s
sense of who would win the election:
No effect
Sense became clearer
Sense became confused
Switched vote to a stronger candidate
Switched vote to a weaker candidate
100%
88% 100%
39%
44% 100%
17%
12%
10%
19%
13%
12%
8.3%
6.3%
44%
30%
26%
9.5% 21%
7.2% 16%
51
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Test statement: “Personnel of any church should not
support any candidate in an election.”
Feb 2226, 2001
Apr 816, 1998
Nov 7Dec 1
1994
Agree (A)
50%
58%
50%
Undecided
16
14
24
Disagree (B)
32
28
26
+ 18
+31
+ 24
Net Agree (A-B)
52
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Test statement: “Together with the votes of other
citizens, my vote has a big influence in determining
what kind of government Filipinos will have.”
Apr 1923, 2001
Nov 21Dec 18,
1998
Mar 18Apr 11,
1998
Agree (A)
72%
82%
71%
Undecided
19
---
19
9
17
8
+63
+65
+63
Disagree (B)
Net Agree (A-B)
53
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Voters tend to be cynical:
* Majority consider vote-selling excusable.
* Not many give competence a chance
against money or influence.
* Significant numbers expect voting
irregularities to happen.
54
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Test statement: “In an election, it is not bad to
accept money provided one votes according to
one’s conscience.”
Apr 1923, 2001
Apr 816, 1998
Mar 25Apr 10,
1992
Agree (A)
58%
50%
39%
Undecided
14
10
24
Disagree (B)
28
39
36
+30
+11
+3
Net Agree (A-B)
55
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Test statement: “In the coming elections, candidates
with money and influence will most probably win over
candidates who are competent but without money and
influence.”
Apr 19Apr 8Mar 1623, 2001 16, 1998 21, 1998
Agree (A)
42%
44%
42%
Undecided
24
16
18
Disagree (B)
33
40
40
+9
+4
+2
Net Agree (A-B)
56
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
EXPECTED / WITNESSED ELECTION IRREGULARITIES
Apr 1923, 2001:
“Will
happen”
in the next
election
Jun 27Mar 25Jul 14, 1998: Apr 10, 1992:
“Personally
“Will
witnessed”
happen”
in the last
in the next
election
election
Vote-buying
48%
17%
57%
Cheating in counting
—
5
46
“Dagdag-Bawas”
29
—
—
Flying voters
26
4
41
Harassment
16
5
36
57
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Voters could stand more assistance:
* One-half use a sample ballot.
* One-fifth decide their vote on the last day.
• Very many know little or nothing about the
party-list system.
• Most find political ads helpful.
* They are more likely to add, than to
subtract, senatorial names.
58
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
UNDERSTANDING THE PARTY LIST SYSTEM
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey
Q: Every citizen has two votes for the House of
Representatives: one for a representative of his/her
district and another one for a party. How much is your
understanding about the party list system?
Very much
15%
A little
46
Almost nothing
18
Just heard of it now
20
Note: Don’t Know and Refused responses (volunteered) not shown.
59
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
POLITICAL ADS
SWS April 19-23, 2001 National Survey
Q: It is now legal to place political ads in TV, radio and
newspapers. How much have political ads helped you to
decide your vote for senators?
Helped a lot
Helped somewhat
Helped a little
Did not help at all
Did not pay attention to these
Have not seen, heard or read
any political ad
38%
30
18
6
8
1
Note: Don’t Know and Refused responses (volunteered) not shown.
60
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Q: Is there DEFINITELY NO POSSIBILITY, SOME POSSIBILITY,
or a BIG POSSIBILITY that you will ADD MORE / DROP SOME
[Senatorial choices]?
Apr 1923, 2001
Apr 14, 2001
Feb 2227, 1998
Add more names?
Definitely no possibility 35%
Some possibility
33
Big possibility
30
33%
30
33
27%
31
39
Drop some names?
Definitely no possibility 57
Some possibility
32
Big possibility
9
58
28
10
49
33
14
61
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Definitely, the voters are eager to participate in
the coming election.
62
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
INTENTION TO VOTE IN THE NEXT ELECTIONS
Nov 21Dec 18
1997
Mar 18Apr 11,
1995
94%
94%
93%
4
3
6
Definitely will not be
able to go to the precinct 1
3
0
Apr 1923, 2001
Will surely vote
Possibly will be doing
something else
Note: Don’t Know and Refused responses (volunteered) not shown.
63
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
What is the election outlook as of today?
64
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
2001 senatorial prospects, prior to “PP3”:
* de CASTRO is the likely topnotcher.
* Ranks 2-9 have been solid for the same 8
PPCs — FLAVIER, ARROYO,DRILON,
OSMEñA, MAGSAYSAY, VILLAR,
PANGILINAN, and RECTO.
* The same 7 PnMs have been struggling for
the last 4 slots — ANGARA, ENRILE,
HONASAN, LACSON, MERCADO, PUNO,
and SANTIAGO (alphabetical order, none
statistically safe).
65
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Will the May 1 drama benefit PPC enough?
* Can Herrera, Tañada, Pagdanganan, and
Monsod make up deficits of 4, 6, 8, and 9
points respectively as of Apr 19-23?
* (Fernan gained 10 points between Apr 17-24
& May 8, 1995, to go from No. 17 to No. 10.)
66
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
From Supreme Court en banc Decision,
G.R.147571, May 5, 2001, that the Fair Election
Act’s (R.A. 9006) Sec. 5.4 banning publication of
election surveys, even for a limited period, is
unconstitutional:
“To sustain the ban on survey results would
Sanction the censorship of all speaking by
Candidates in an election on the ground that the
Usual bombasts and hyperbolic claims made
during the campaign can confuse the voters and
Thus debase the electoral process.”
67
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
May 5, 2001 Supreme Court decision that banning
election survey publication is unconstitutional:
Pro-survey-freedom
C.J. Hilario Davide Jr.
J. Vicente Mendoza, ponente
J. Minerva Gonzaga-Reyes
J. Jose Melo
J. Artemio Panganiban
J. Reynato Puno
J. Jose Vitug
Anti-survey-freedom
J. Santiago Kapunan
J. Josue Bellosillo
J. Bernardo Pardo
J. Angelina Sandoval-Gutierrez
J. Consuelo Ynares-Santiago
On leave:
J. Arturo Buena, J. Sabino de Leon,
J. Leonardo Quisumbing
68
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
The Supreme Court’s decisions of January
2000 on exit polling and May 2001 on preelection polling have affirmed that Filipinos
have constitutional rights to express their
collective voice and also to listen to it, by
means of statistical surveys, at all stages of an
electoral exercise.
69
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
Watch for the SWS
Final Pre-Election-2001 Survey
and the
ABS-CBN/SWS 2001 Day-of-Election Survey
70
SWS Surveys for the May 14, 2001 Elections
the Philippines’ leading survey
research institute on quality of life,
public opinion, and governance
Address:
Tel. Nos:
#52 Malingap Street
Sikatuna Village,
Quezon City
926-4308; 924-4456;
924-4458; 924-4465
E-mail:
Homepage:
sws_info@sws.org.ph;
sws885@mozcom.com
www.sws.org.ph
71