IPS Event #3 – Foreign Policy Spotlight:
US Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Ahad Hayaud-Din
Professor of Political Science, Brookhaven College
Country Profile
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Capital: Kabul
Area: 252K square miles (slightly smaller than Texas)
Population: 31 Million (July 2006 estimate)
GDP per capita: purchasing power is $800 per person annually
(2004 estimate) = $2.19 per day.
Economy: Marginalized and underdeveloped, over 80% of the labor
force is employed in agriculture.
Language: Most Afghans are bilingual
 Dari (official language) 50%
 Pashtu (official language) 35%
 Turkic languages 11%
2014 UN HDI Score 0.468 ranks 169 out of 187.
 That means living conditions are #19 on the list of the 20 worst
countries on the planet.
Unique Geography
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Located in
Central Asia,
bordered by six
countries:
 China*
 Iran**
 Pakistan*
 Tajikistan
 Turkmenistan
 Uzbekistan
*Indicates states with nuclear weapons
** Not confirmed
Ethnic Composition
42% Pashtun: largest ethnic
group, mostly farmers and
Sunni Muslims
27% Tajik: live mostly in the
northeast, second largest
ethnic group, mostly Sunni
Muslims
9% Uzbek: live mostly along
the northern border, mostly
Sunni Muslims
9% Hazara: live in the Hindu
Kush mountains, primarily
Shiite Muslims
13% Others:
Aimak: a farming and herding
tribe in the west, mostly Sunni
Muslims
Turkmen and Kirghiz:
nomadic herders and
craftsmen, mostly Sunni
Muslims
Baluchi: nomadic tribe living in
the southern deserts, Sunni
Muslims
Pashtunwali – The Honor Code
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Jirga – Conflict Resolution
Badal - Revenge
Melmastia – Hospitality
Nanawatay - Asylum
Tor – Sexual Deviance
Ancient Political History
 Afghanistan's location along the Silk/Spice Road meant
that it served as an important link between east and
west throughout history.
 This location, however, has meant significant
intervention from outsiders.
 Afghanistan is known as “the Graveyard of Empires.”
The Great Game
Great Britain & Russia fought a series of wars over Afghanistan during the 18th & 19th
centuries as each side wanted to expand its empire.
The Durand Line
Britain determined boundaries that did not take ethnic populations into
account.
 In 1893, the Durand Line cut through Pashtun tribal areas and villages.
The agreement caused disputes between the governments of Afghanistan
and British India and later between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
 In 1947, Britain ended colonial rule in India and formed the country of
Pakistan (with a Muslim majority).
 Border conflicts persist over FATA region of NW Pakistan (AKA: No
Man’s Land).
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th
20
Century Political History
 Afghanistan began trade relationship with the
USSR in the 1940s and viewed the Soviets as
important source of protection.
 Internal conflicts in Afghanistan led to the Soviets’
invasion (1979) both to stabilize Afghanistan
(under the Brezhnev Doctrine) and once again, to
pursue geo-political interests (naval interests).
 From 1979-1989, Afghanistan became a
battleground of the Cold War between the US and
USSR (with the U.S. supporting the Afghan
resistance of the Soviets’ invasion).
Afghan-Soviet War
 The Mujahideen declared a
holy war against the
“godless” Soviet invaders.
 CIA and RDFs trained and
equipped the freedom
fighters (plausible
deniability).
 Soviet occupation took a
heavy toll on Afghans
because of the depopulation
strategy.
 Most civilians fled to
bordering countries (largest
refugee migration in history).
Results of the Soviet Conflict
 Soviet withdrawal
(1989) left country in
a power vacuum.
 Infrastructure,
economy, education,
health systems
totally destroyed.
 Civil war broke out
as rival tribes and
regional groups
fought for power.
The Soviet Army withdrawing from
Afghanistan in 1989 over the Friendship
Bridge. Some experts say this moment was
the end of the Cold War.
Rise of the Taliban
 In 1996, the Taliban seize
power by capturing Kandahar
and Kabul.
 They were determined to end
lawlessness and restore the
importance of Islam by
imposing a strict interpretation
of Shari’a law.
 Taliban initially well received,
had support of US, Pakistan,
and Saudi Arabia.
 US hoped for construction of
the ARAMCO oil pipeline.
Effects of Taliban Rule
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Limited women's rights, banned
girls from attending school and
committed crimes against
humanity (example: mutilation).
Banned music, sports,
television, movies, dancing,
playing cards, and kite flying.
By 2000, the Taliban were losing
control and forcibly recruiting
young men and forging an
alliance with Al-Queda.
Taliban Attract Global Ire
 Al-Qaeda allowed to freely
operate within the country after
attacking two US Embassies in
Africa and the USS Cole.
 8/20/1998 Pres. Clinton
ordered strikes of 75 cruise
missiles, missed OBL by 1
hour.
 In 2001, the Taliban destroyed
the sacred Buddhas of
Bamiyan (in Afghanistan). The
statues were over 1500 years
old and listed as a World
Heritage Site by the UN.
21st Century and the US Intervention
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US policy shifts to direct intervention after 9/11/2001.
History shows this was not a good idea.
Timeline of events (1999 - Present).
Today it is a NATO operation…why not UN?
NATO - International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
FATA – Federally Administered Tribal Area
AF-PAK Policy Issues
 Pakistani ISI and military forces deeply
involved with Afghan politics.
 “Strategic Depth” is Pakistan’s official nuclear
combat policy. Ironically, it worked the other
way around for Taliban and Al-Queda.
 Nearly half of Afghanistan’s population was
inside of Pakistan.
 FATA border issues have persisted several
generations and will continue.
December 2014 and the
Current US Withdrawal Plan
 2009: New President Obama surges troop level from 36k to
99k.
 2010: London Conference targets 2011 for US withdrawal.
 2012: Chicago and Tokyo Conferences target 2014 for US
withdrawal.
 9/30/2014: new Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) expects
NATO/ISAF will provide artillery and air power until 2017. ISAF
will eventually morph into a counter-terrorism training force with
6 bases (plus 9 secret bases for US Special Operations units).
 1/1/2015, BSA goes into effect and will remain in force "until the
end of 2024 and beyond" unless it is terminated by either side
with two years' notice.
Skepticism from Policy Hawks
• Spring is the fighting season; 2015 will provide a forecast.
Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction
(SIGAR) reports the country is more unstable than ever.
• US Army General John Campell, the top commander of the
international coalition has suggested waiting until 2016 to
continue training the Afghan troops.
• Commander of US Forces, General Joseph Dunford
Interview.
• Several senior government officials and many top experts
went on record to state the current plans will lead to a more
disastrous situation than Iraq.
• What happened to the Neo-Marshall plan? We remain
engaged with England, Germany, Japan, and Korea decades
later.
Conclusions and Future
Considerations
 Afghanistan will face a number of significant challenges
as it tries to rebuild after 3 decades of war. Some of
these challenges include:
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Unstable government and widespread political corruption
Justice, liberty and equality as obstacles toward building a
civic/democratic society, the role of women being critical
Poverty/economic insecurity and proliferation of poppy (opium)
industry “Hungry people don’t care about voting.”
Infrastructure (education, healthcare, electricity, communications,
roads, etc.)
The Taliban and affiliated groups, Wahhabism and now ISIS
ISIS will be the topic of our next foreign policy spotlight on April
22, 2015. I hope to see you then!
Questions?
Contact information:
Ahad Hayaud-Din
Professor and Department Lead, Political Science/Government
Director, Institute for Political Studies (IPS) at Brookhaven College
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/BrookhavenIPS
Twitter: https://twitter.com/IPS_BC
E-mail: adin@dcccd.edu