climate change vulnerability mapping in selected
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CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAPPING IN SELECTED MUNICIPALITIES IN LAGUNA , PHILIPPINES* *Building Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change in Southeast Asia Vicente G. Ballaran, Jr. Assistant Professor University of the Philippines Los Baños PROJECT DISSEMINATION AND SHARING SEMINAR June 25, 2013 Manila, Philippines INTRODUCTION: SOME OF THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS •could kill people •devastate means of livelihood •wreck houses, building and other structures •destroy natural resources and biodiversity •etc. translate to huge economic losses that can be detrimental to further improvements of food security OVERALL OBJECTIVE: *To build local capacity to adapt to climate change, especially in vulnerability assessment and adaptation analysis SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES: • to measure community’s vulnerability to climate change through research in selected communities • to produce maps of each community’s relative vulnerability to climate change (commune and agriculture) Laguna PHILIPPINES STUDY SITE •Watershed approach •proposed watershed includes municipalities that have experienced flooding and heavy typhoon damages in recent years •chosen watershed will include the agricultural area of Laguna Province of Laguna 30 municipalities 676 barangays 1,760 km2 2007 Population: 2, 473, 530 The Study Site 12 municipalities 274 barangays (194) 568 km2 2007 population: 568, 690 (23% share) Laguna Lake: •largest living lake in Southeast Asia •90,000 ha •serves as a catchment basin for 21 major tributaries with a total catchment area of 45,000 km2 •Seventeen of the tributaries draining to the lake are within Laguna •has only a single outlet into Manila Bay through the Napindan Channel METHODOLOGY: FRAMEWORK: Vulnerability=(Exposure , Sensitivities , and Adaptive Capacity) EXPOSURE / HAZARD • Typhoon • Flood SENSITIVITY • Natural • Human • Infrastructure • Livelihood ADAPTIVE CAPACITY • Infrastructure • Economic • Technology • Social • Human Table 1. Vulnerable areas in terms of exposure to climatic hazards. Barangay Topographic Classification Relative Exposure Vulnerability Index Maitim Coastal 0.618 Tagumpay Coastal 0.544 Magdalena Bucal Lowland 0.504 Majayjay Munting Kawayan Lowland 0.621 Nagcarlan Maravilla Lowland 0.516 Duhat Coastal 0.513 Poblacion V Lowland 0.591 San Pablo Norte Coastal 1.000 Santisima Cruz Coastal 0.609 Municipality Bay Sta. Cruz Table 2. Vulnerable areas in terms of sensitivity determinant. Municipality Bay Calauan Liliw Los Baños Magdalena Majayjay Nagcarlan Pagsanjan Pila Rizal Sta. Cruz Victoria Barangay Topographic Classification Relative Sensitivity Vulnerability Index Bitin San Agustin San Isidro Bangyas Masiit Perez San Isidro Silangan Calumpang Kanlurang Bukal Maslun Oples Pag Asa Maahas Ibabang Butnog Ilayang Atingay Bitaoy Ibabang Banga Olla Panglan Piit San Francisco San Isidro Balimbing Balinacon Banago Cabangan Manaol Palina Poblacion II Sabang Sibulan Silangang Kabubuhayan Buboy Bagong Pook Bukal Concepcion Mojon San Antonio San Miguel Santa Clara Sur Tubuan East Poblacion Entablado Tuy Oogong Pagsawitan Poblacion II San Jose San Juan San Pablo Sur Santo Angel Sur Banca-Banca Daniw Masapang Nanhaya Pagalangan San Francisco Midland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Midland Midland Midland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Midland Midland Lowland Midland Midland Midland Lowland Midland Midland Midland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Midland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Coastal Midland Midland Midland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Coastal Coastal Lowland 0.530 0.554 0.527 0.5114 0.503 0.703 0.766 0.707 0.501 0.873 0.518 0.622 0.599 0.543 0.711 0.657 0.530 0.725 0.685 0.612 0.810 0.857 0.696 0.676 0.843 0.509 0.545 0.580 0.614 0.695 0.518 0.712 0.535 0.598 0.519 0.791 0.518 0.507 0.557 0.722 0.797 0.981 0.802 0.775 0.884 0.517 0.502 0.689 0.652 0.612 0.514 0.626 0.596 0.931 0.522 0.916 0.776 0.676 coastal 0.981 coastal coastal coastal 0.916 0.776 0.820 Table 3. Percentage of vulnerable barangays having a low adaptive capacity Municipality Number of Vulnerable Barangays Percentage Bay 8 out of 14 57% Calauan 14 out of 16 88% Liliw 14 out of 20 70% Los Baños 2 out of 8 25% Magdalena 9 out of 10 90% Majayjay 20 out of 24 83% Nagcarlan 23 out of 30 77% Pagsanjan 5 out of 15 33% Pila 14 out of 17 82% Rizal 6 out of 8 75% Sta. Cruz 12 out of 23 52% Victoria 4 out of 9 44% Table 4. Overall Vulnerable Areas Municipality Bay Calauan Liliw Magdalena Majayjay Nagcarlan Pagsanjan Pila Rizal Sta. Cruz Barangay Topographic Classification Overall Vulnerability Maitim Tagumpay Balayhangin Dayap Mabacan Masiit Perez San Isidro Silangan Ilayang Palina Kanlurang Bukal Tuy-Baanan Bucal Ibabang Butnog Ilayang Atingay Tipunan Munting Kawayan Olla Santa Catalina Maravilla Sabang Anibong Aplaya Bukal Masico Pinagbayanan East Poblacion Tuy Duhat Gatid Poblacion V San Pablo Norte Santisima Cruz Santo Angel Sur Masapang Coastal Coastal Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Midland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Midland Lowland Coastal Lowland Lowland Coastal Midland Midland Coastal Coastal Lowland Coastal Coastal Lowland Lowland 0.530 0.582 0.598 0.770 0.554 0.566 0.535 0.599 0.538 0.502 0.546 0.656 0.563 0.581 0.545 0.531 0.718 0.502 0.549 0.628 0.615 0.634 0.551 0.596 0.659 0.581 0.503 0.561 0.537 0.505 0.612 1.000 0.652 0.577 0.615 Municipality Bay Calauan Liliw Los Baños Magdalena Majayjay Nagcarlan Pagsanjan Pila Rizal Sta. Cruz Barangay Topographic Classification Overall Vulnerability Calo Maitim Paciano Rizal San Isidro Sta. Cruz Sto. Domingo Tagumpay Bangyas Dayap Masiit Perez San Isidro Bongkol Calumpang Ilayang Palina Tuy-Baanan Timugan Tipunan Bitaoy Botocan Ilayang Banga Munting Kawayan Talortor Maravilla Yukos Calusiche Magdapio Maulawin Sampaloc Aplaya Bagong Pook Bulilan Norte Labuin Masico San Antonio Tubuan Talaga Bagumbayan Calios Duhat Gatid Oogong San Pablo Norte Santisima Cruz Masapang Nanhaya Lowland Coastal Lowland Lowland Lowland Coastal Coastal Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Midland Midland Midland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Coastal Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Lowland Coastal Lowland Lowland Coastal Coastal Coastal Lowland Coastal Coastal Lowland Coastal 0.632 0.788 0.513 0.623 0.724 0.619 0.531 0.599 0.735 0.629 0.577 0.585 0.688 0.615 0.568 0.615 0.540 0.519 0.512 0.637 0.523 0.687 0.628 0.617 0.555 0.580 0.544 0.674 0.553 0.747 0.537 0.591 1.000 0.617 0.568 0.578 0.509 0.773 0.705 0.659 0.885 0.539 0.876 0.807 0.686 0.620 SUMMARY: COMMUNE Determinants No. of Vulnerable Municipalities AGRICULTURE No. of Vulnerable Barangays Most Vulnerable Barangay No. of Vulnerable Municipalities No. of Vulnerable Barangays Most Vulnerable Barangay 11 27 Labuin of Pila EXPOSURE 5 9 San Pablo Norte of Sta. Cruz SENSITIVITY 12 59 Tubuan of Pila 11 66 Nanhaya of Victoria 135 Ilayang Atingay of Magdalena 12 98 Talaga of Rizal 37 San Pablo Norte of Sta. Cruz 12 48 Labuin of Pila ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OVERALL 12 11 TYPHOON SENDONG’S (Washi)TRACK – Dec 2011 TYPHOON PABLO’S (Bopha)TRACK – Dec 2012 TYPHOON PABLO
