Written 5/25/15
Another El Nino? By Michael Palecki
After experiencing the double effects of the 1982/1983 El Nino phenomenon, I acquired a profound
respect for the power of Mother Nature. At first in Malibu, 25-foot waves quickly devoured the beach and
pummeled weekend homes of my property management cliental. And then at the same time, torrential
rains washed out the dirt road at my weekend cabin in Pinon Hills.
In Pinon Hills, the major concern was runoff from the ill-fated White Project where Harry White had
carved home sites into the foothills at the top of Mountain Road, but drainage infrastructure had not been
accomplished when he went bankrupt. That concern remains valid today because the property has never
been stabilized and vegetation is nonexistent on the scarred hillside.
In 1997, the San Bernardino County Department of Public Works used monies from a performance
bond to do some remedial sandbagging at the White Project, and to increase the height of asphalt berms
on Mountain Road. That’s when I moved to the cabin full time to do some sandbagging of my own where
two creek beds on my property crossed the road. With the 1997/1998 El Nino predicted, it made all the
difference to be there with sandbags to keep the western creek from overflowing into my neighbor’s
home, and keep the eastern creek from changing course toward the cabin.
The El Nino anomaly occurs when ocean surface temperatures off the coast of Peru get warmer, trade
winds diminish, and the jet stream shifts to a more southerly location. This perfect combination allows
subtropical storms to replace Alaskan storms and produce heavy rains and mountain snows in California,
while the ocean level actually rises.
The 1982/1983 El Nino was not predicted nor recognized by scientists as ocean surface temperatures
exceeded +3.5 degrees Celsius for three straight months. The 1997/1998 El Nino was the strongest to date
with ocean temperatures rising to +4 degrees Celsius. That produced incredible rainfall hereabouts while
sandbags addressed the ongoing challenge of runoff from the White Project.
On May 22 The Weather Channel predicted, “The emerging El Nino event will be potent this year
possibly rivaling the 1997 event.” With ocean temperatures currently recorded at +2.3 degrees Celsius,
there is a 90 percent chance that the El Nino will continue to develop in the next four to eight weeks.
Keep in mind that an El Nino event-first discovered in 1923 by British scientist Sir Gilbert Thomas
Walker-requires the aforementioned three factors to be significant. The jet stream shift to the south is the
most important factor. Otherwise warmer ocean temperatures and diminished trade winds will simply
produce a much-weakened El Nino with less precipitation.