Npower
Npower Ltd.
Atlantic Business Centre
Broadheath, Altrincham
Cheshire WA14 5NQ, UK
Telephone: +44 (0) 161 929 9899
Fax:
+44 (0) 161 926 9520
http://www.npower.co.uk
http://www.n-power.net
FUZZY LOGIC PREDICTS AIRCRAFT FLIGHT PATHS
Research at National Air Traffic Services (NATS) in London, has demonstrated that fuzzy
logic can accurately predict aircraft flight paths.
Using fuzzyTECH fuzzy logic software Manchester-based consultants Npower and NATS
were able to compare flight path predictions generated by fuzzy logic against those
produced by conventional linear extrapolation. For the flights considered, fuzzy logic
proved to give more accurate predictions of aircraft position 88 seconds into the future.
"Fuzzy logic is proving to be one of the more useful techniques that we're
evaluating to predict flight paths," says Julia Sonander, Research Manager, Research and
Development Group, NATS. "We are looking into other data mining techniques, but fuzzy
logic has a number of attractions. For example, fuzzy logic generates a set of rules for
prediction rather than giving a 'black box' solution. These rules could be validated and
implemented in conventional software"
A number of Air Traffic Control(ATC) tools, including current collision avoidance
systems, incorporate flight path prediction, of which aircraft height is a particularly
important element. Generally, such tools predict the height of an aircraft by extrapolating
from its current height and assuming it will continue to climb at its current rate. Fuzzy
logic uses a set of 'rules' to predict the outcome of a climb, for example, an aircraft
levelling off at a particular height, based on an analysis of the historical flight data held
by NATS. If fuzzy logic proves to provide significant improvements in track prediction it
could be used as a component in future ATC tools.
Initial research results have been promising. Further research is now required to see how
fuzzy logic predictors can be developed and to assess their performance for a larger data
set. NATS is currently undertaking an extended trial of fuzzyTECH.
NATS undertook the initial evaluation of FuzzyTECH with consultancy support from
Npower, under the DTI's Smart Software for Decision Makers programme. "We are
delighted that fuzzy logic was able to demonstrate real improvements in flight path
prediction," said Bill Edisbury, chairman, Npower. "Many companies are now finding that
fuzzy logic has a great deal to offer when trying to make sense of a mass of data that on
the surface may look pretty meaningless, for example, in analysing customers spending
patterns."
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Registered in the UK 3159235
VAT Number 679 076 8 78
Diretors: Bill Edisbury, Roger England, Stewart Hanson
Editor's Note
NPOWER
Based in Manchester, Npower offers both software and consultancy to exploit the power
of business intelligence tools such as fuzzy logic or neural networks, case based reasoning
and knowledge management.
Npower's customers include Abbey National, UBS, Barclays, the Dental Practice Board,
Cranfield, British Steel, UKAEA and Zeneca.
DTI SMART SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MAKERS
Npower is a technology provider to the Department of Trade and Industry's Smart
Software for Decision Makers (SSDM) Programme. This three-year initiative aims to
help UK businesses become more aware of the commercial benefits of adopting emerging
intelligent software technologies for converting raw data into business intelligence.
Programme material available to businesses ranges from comprehensive "how to" guides
including business and technology briefs, to a getting started guide, case studies and
directories of product and service suppliers, as well as user clubs that assist members in
developing demonstrator projects.
For further information about the Smart Software for Decision Makers programme please
contact Ray Browne, Smart Software for Decision Makers, DTI, Tel: 0171 215 1287, Fax:
0171 215 1966 or John Davies on 07803 393479.
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