Top 3 Stocks,
2 Years On
Special report | december 2013
Intelligent Investor
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Important information
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Intelligent Investor
PO Box Q744
Queen Vic. Bldg. NSW 1230
T 1800 620 414
F 02 9387 8674
info@intelligentinvestor.com.au
shares.intelligentinvestor.com.au
Tonny Scenna2
WARNING This publication is
general information only, which
means it does not take into
account your investment objectives,
financial situation or needs. You
should therefore consider whether
a particular recommendation is
appropriate for your needs before
acting on it, seeking advice from a
financial adviser or stockbroker if
necessary. Not all investments are
appropriate for all people.
DISCLAIMER This publication has
been prepared from a wide variety
of sources, which The Intelligent
Investor Publishing Pty Ltd, to the
best of its knowledge and belief,
considers accurate. You should
make your own enquiries about
the investments and we strongly
suggest you seek advice before
acting upon any recommendation.
COPYRIGHT© The Intelligent
Investor Publishing Pty Ltd 2013.
Intelligent Investor and associated
websites and publications are
published by The Intelligent Investor
Publishing Pty Ltd ABN 12 108 915
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DISCLOSURE As at 4 December
2013, in-house staff of Intelligent
Investor held the following listed
securities or managed investment
schemes: ARP, ASX, AWC, AWE,
AZZ, COH, CPU, CRH, CRZ, CSL,
EGG, FKP, ICQ, IFM, JIN, KRM, MAU,
MIX, MQG, NST, PTM, QBE, RMD,
RNY, SLR, SRV, SWK, SYD, TAP, USD,
UXC, VMS, WDC, WES, WRT and
ZGL. This is not a recommendation.
PRICES CORRECT AS AT
29 November 2013
2
Greg Hoffman4
Nathan Bell4
Steve Johnson 5
James Carlisle5
Gareth Brown6
Gaurav Sodhi6
Jason Prowd7
Graham Witcomb7
3
SPECIAL REPORT
Top 3 stocks, 2 years on
BY JAMES CARLISLE
Two years ago we asked our analysts to pick their
top three stocks that couldn’t be sold for three
years. Two years in, here we reveal whether they’re
beating the market and their new top stock for
three years.
They say you should make hay when the sun shines
and, in the second year of our third ‘Top three stocks
for three years’ contest, your analysts have made
enough to fill a farmyard.
A notable lesson
this year is about
the benefits of
diversification, with
the current leader,
Tony Scenna, holding
the worst-performing
stock.
We began the current contest back in 2011 and, at the
one-year mark, our average performance was neck and
neck with the All Ords at 11%. But as of 29 Nov 13 we’ve
added 32% in the second year, compared to the index’s
21%, to give us a two-year return of 46% compared to
the index’s 33%. Chart 1 tells the story so far.
Of course, three years is too short and three stocks too
few to make it much more than a lottery, but it does
at least give us a clue, first about investment strategy
under such restricted conditions, and then about the
stock picks themselves.
Chart 1: Stock performances two years in
WHC
EGG
GOLD
CRH
holding the worst-performing stock. Whitehaven Coal
has lost 63% for Tony, but he’s been able to make that
back and much more with the second and third placed
stocks, Flight Centre (up 155%) and Sirtex Medical (up
153%), to give him an overall return of 82%.
With a lead of 15%, he’ll take some overhauling, but Greg
Hoffman, Nathan Bell and Steve Johnson aren’t far behind
with returns in the mid-60s, waiting to pounce. Let’s see
how they’re performing and get their latest stock picks.
Tony Scenna
Tony Scenna doesn’t let poor-per forming
businesses hang around in his real-life portfolios,
which is why you can almost hear his teeth grinding
as he bemoans his big loser, despite the fact he’s
a big winner (so far).
Tony may be happy leading the competition after two
years but being stuck with Whitehaven Coal (sorry, Tony,
rules is rules) is clearly eating away at him.
‘The advice to cut your losses and run your winners could
so easily be applied to my three picks. Two years into the
competition and both Flight Centre and Sirtex Medical
continue to deliver solid results, while coal producer
Whitehaven Coal is finding conditions tough.’
Tony’s Top Dogs
QBE
AZZ
SRV
All Ords
Stock Price atPrice at Divs.Value atTotal
15/11/11 29/11/13
29/11/13return
Flight Centre
RMD
CPU
SKI
Sirtex Medical
$20.07 $48.69$2.49 $51.18 155%
$4.75 $11.78$0.22 $12.00 153%
Whitehaven Coal $5.74
$1.62$0.53 $2.15 –63%
II avg
WOW
Average
BRKB
It’s true. The market has happily rewarded Flight Centre
and Sirtex Medical for their achievements thus far, placing
them on hefty multiples. By contrast, Whitehaven Coal has
been discarded, trading at multi-year lows and struggling
to stay in the black. While it’s easy to blame the economic
backdrop when times are hard, this is a situation where
the argument carries some weight.
As Tony says, ‘With falling coal prices, a stubbornly high
exchange rate and a range of production issues, earnings
have collapsed just as the company embarks on a further
expansion of operations. In isolation this might all be
manageable, but the balance sheet is now so stretched
that shareholder dilution remains a distinct possibility.
‘At the other extreme, Flight Centre’s achievements
have been spectacular. The strong local currency has
helped matters but management deserves applause
for redefining this business, achieving success across a
number of areas, particularly the corporate travel segment.
SEK
MQG
SRX
FLT
RNY
–10
–5
Year 1 return
0
Year 2 return
5
10
15
20
%
Total return
Source: Capital IQ, 2013
It also gives our analysts a chance to ‘express their
individuality’, and maybe highlight some stocks that, for
whatever reason, we haven’t formally covered. With a
bit of luck we might also learn something along the way.
And the winner is …
A notable lesson this year is about the benefits of
diversification, with the current leader, Tony Scenna,
82%
Share Advisor
4
Assuming the US
economy doesn’t fall
in a heap, RNY’s share
price should still have
some way to go
‘Lastly, Sirtex Medical continues to provide liver cancer
patients with an alternative treatment path. Achieving
medical acceptance is a long-term process and, while
the signs are good, it is still too early to call.
‘I added NIB Holdings to my list last year and, despite
a host of regulatory changes, management has taken
prudent steps to protect and grow new revenue streams.
The expected listing of Medibank Private will no doubt
shine further light on this sector and lead to further
discussions regarding mergers.’
New selection: Unfortunately, Tony is unable to provide
a new stock this year due to conflicts with his funds
management business.
Tony Scenna is founding director and portfolio manager
of Selector Funds Management.
Disclosure: Portfolios managed by Tony Scenna own shares in
Flight Centre and Sirtex Medical.
Greg Hoffman
QBE profit downgrade
Just as we were about
to go to press, QBE
announced another profit
downgrade and large
write-offs, causing the
share price to fall well
over 20%. You can read
why we’ve upgraded the
stock to Buy here, but the
share price drop is likely
to leave a dent in the
performance of several
of the portfolios in this
report by the time the
contest finishes next year.
Former Intelligent Investor Share Advisor
research director Greg Hoffman has enjoyed the
turnaround from QBE Insurance, which has added
49% over the past year to bring it back into the
black, as well as a continued strong performance
from Macquarie Group.
‘Deeply out of favour with investors this time last year,
QBE Insurance has since found favour and outperformed
the index comfortably. It’s nice to see it now showing a
profit for all of us who selected it in this competition and
I’m happy to hold it going into the final year.
‘Two years ago I noted that there were “many ways
shareholders could win” with Macquarie, and we’re
seeing a few of them. As financial markets have recovered
over the past couple of years, Macquarie’s profits have
followed. And now that floats and other corporate activity
are picking up, there’s plenty of scope for further profit
growth. As with QBE, I’m happy to be holding this into
the competition’s final 12 months.
Hoffman’s Heroes
Stock Price atPrice at Divs.Value atTotal
15/11/11 29/11/13
29/11/13return
QBE Insurance
$14.61 $15.65$0.95 $16.60 14%
Macquarie Grp $24.03 $54.18$3.75 $57.93 141%
Woolworths Average
$24.76 $33.69$2.87 $36.56 48%
67%
‘I included Woolworths for some stability and it’s been
a real surprise packet, delivering impressive returns well
in excess of what I would have expected, despite the
concerns over its Masters home improvement venture.
‘Last year my additional selection was Computershare,
which I think still has tremendous potential from here. This
year I’m heading to the more dangerous, but hopefully
lucrative, end of the market with Jumbo Interactive.
I made the case for this growing online lotteries retailer
in our 5 Small stocks set to shine special report a few
months ago and this will be the year when Jumbo proves
whether it can reproduce its domestic success overseas
(always a risk for Aussie companies).’
Greg Hoffman is the former research director of Intelligent
Investor Share Advisor and current board member of
Intelligent Investor.
Disclosure: Portfolios managed by Greg Hoffman own all of these
stocks.
Nathan Bell
Current research director Nathan Bell’s portfolio
also contains QBE and Macquarie, but a slightly
weaker performance from Computershare has him
back in third place.
‘Two years in and Macquarie has done much better than
I expected given its lacklustre results,’ says Nathan, ‘while
QBE Insurance and Computershare have done worse.’
‘Macquarie is no longer cheap so I’m not expecting it to
add much to my returns by the end of the competition.
Nor Computershare, as its earnings are also currently in
limbo given interest rates and corporate activity aren’t
increasing substantially. But QBE still has the potential
to improve my returns if the US division can drastically
improve its performance next year, and claims don’t
blow out.
Bellseye
Stock Price atPrice at Divs.Value atTotal
15/11/11 29/11/13
29/11/13return
Macquarie Grp $24.03 $54.18$3.75 $57.93 141%
QBE Insurance $14.61 $15.65$0.95 $16.60 14%
Computershare $8.16 $10.89$0.56 $11.45 40%
Average
65%
‘It’s still early days for last year’s extra pick RNY Property,
as financing for B grade commercial property is only
just starting to flow in the US. More lending is one
of the first key steps in the sector’s recovery. Assuming
the US economy doesn’t fall in a heap, RNY’s share price
should still have some way to go before it’s delisted
somehow, as it doesn’t make sense for it to remain listed
in Australia.
‘I’m borrowing from Intelligent Investor Funds
Management’s Gareth Brown’s cheeky playbook and
selecting a stock listed in the US as my new pick this year
[Ah, but he picked Berkshire in his main portfolio and I
still don’t know how he got away with it – Ed].
Hospira provides generic drugs chiefly used in hospitals
and is getting closer to restoring production at a bunch of
manufacturing facilities that were shut down due to poor
quality control. It also has an enviable array of growth
opportunities that I recently wrote about in Overseas
stock opportunities 2013 – Pt 2.’
Nathan Bell is research director with Intelligent Investor
Share Advisor.
Disclosure: Nathan Bell owns shares in Computershare, RNY
Property and Hospira.
5
Steve Johnson
James Carlisle
Winner of our previous Top 3 contest, Steve
Johnson of Intelligent Investor Funds Management,
was languishing but is now racing.
James Carlisle’s predilection for quality has served
him well over the past year, but as usual, he’s
worried about the future.
Recent storming performances from Enero and QBE have
powered Steve into a strong position to challenge Tony
Scenna’s leading position in the competition.
‘All three of my stocks have risen significantly in the past
12 months,’ says Steve. ‘In part that’s been justified by
underlying business fundamentals, but I’ve also benefitted
significantly from the general run up in the market.
‘Enero is still my worst performer, although it has almost
doubled since the end of last year. That doesn’t gel with the
underlying business, which has continued to deteriorate,
so the margin of safety has shrunk dramatically.
‘Last year I wrote that with low growth and interest rates,
most of the talk had been about yield, while I felt the
best relative value was in “stocks with strong businesses
and clearly defined growth prospects”.
‘As it turned out, investors haven’t been too fussy either
way. Reliability in both departments has probably been
the order of the day, which has suited my quality-based
approach, but that end of the market is now looking
highly priced.
‘My best performer has been Seek, as the market has
been drawn to its excellent growth prospects, particularly
in emerging markets. There are still risks to its business in
developed markets, notably from LinkedIn, and I lost the
faith with the stock and sold my own holding a couple of
dollars ago – so any returns beyond that are luck more
than anything else, but I’ll take what I can get.
Steve’s Stars
Stock Price atPrice at Divs.Value atTotal
15/11/11 29/11/13
29/11/13return
QBE Insurance $14.61 $15.65$0.95 $16.60 14%
Enero Group $1.13 $0.73
– $0.73–36%
RNY Prop. Trust $0.10 $0.32
– $0.32215%
Average
With the US
employment situation
slowly improving (all
of RNY’s assets are US
office properties) and
a tsunami of capital
looking for a home
in the sector, there is
plenty of potential
for further gains
in the stock
Special report
64%
‘QBE’s share price has also appreciated markedly and, again,
my estimate of the business value has declined. Higher
interest rates and a lower Australian dollar should both help
QBE’s profit. But the performance of the core insurance
business has been disappointing, with claims blowouts and
weaker premium growth than I was expecting.
A year ago the potential benefits of a weaker Aussie
dollar and higher interest rates were free options, but to
justify the current price you’ll need at least one of those
factors working for you.
‘RNY Property Trust has been my saviour and there has been
plenty of good news to justify the unit price appreciation.
The net tangible asset backing has increased from $0.30 two
years ago to $0.54 at the latest reporting date.
‘The trust’s balance sheet repairs are now complete
and RNY’s management is focused on increasing
the occupancy in its office properties. With the US
employment situation slowly improving (all of RNY’s
assets are US office properties) and a tsunami of capital
looking for a home in the sector, there is plenty of
potential for further gains in the stock.
‘Instead of nominating a new stock, I’ll just reiterate this
one. It’s still cheap and is the largest holding in the Value
Fund by some margin. [Not sure if that’s allowed, but
I’ll let it go – Ed]
‘Finally, last year’s new addition, Vision Eye Institute, has
been a good performer but its share price has appreciated
much more than the underlying business value. It still looks
cheap to me but obviously not as cheap as it was a year ago.’
Steve Johnson is Chief Investment Officer of Intelligent
Investor Funds Management.
Carlisle’s Crackers
Stock Price atPrice at Divs.Value atTotal
13/11/11 29/11/13
29/11/13return
Servcorp $3.42 $3.90$0.15 $4.05 18%
ResMed $3.94 $5.35$0.07 $5.42 38%
Seek $7.05 $13.37$0.22 $13.59 93%
Average
50%
‘I still have great faith in ResMed, however. There can be
few companies that offer such reliable growth prospects.
Not only is its core sleep apnea business doing well
in an underpenetrated market, but the company has
recently announced a new machine to help with chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease and is trialing a machine to
help with heart failure. The market is concerned about the
US Medicare’s move to competitive bidding for medical
devices, but transparent pricing shouldn’t be feared by
companies with leading market positions.
‘Servcorp has also had the odd hiccup, with growth
coming through more slowly than hoped following the
company’s major expansion a few years ago. That’s been
due to market conditions as well as a few mistakes. But
the company has earned the right to make a few of those
and with $100m in the bank (about quarter of its market
cap) it can get over them very easily. The fruits of the
company’s expansion may have been delayed, but I’m
confident that they’re on their way.
‘For my new pick, I’ll go for Carsales. Sentiment has been
against the stock lately, due mainly to some car makers
preventing dealers from listing new cars. This clearly isn’t
great news, but new car listings are a relatively small part
of revenue and the fall in price offers a good opportunity.’
James Carlisle is an analyst with Intelligent Investor Share
Advisor.
Disclosure: Portfolios managed by Steve Johnson own shares in RNY
Disclosure: James Carlisle owns shares in ResMed, Servcorp and
Property Trust, QBE Insurance, Enero Group and Vision Eye Institute.
Carsales.
Share Advisor
6
Gareth Brown
Gaurav Sodhi
Now working with the funds management business,
Gareth took a different strategy to other analysts,
picking tortoises rather than hares.
[ALE Property Group
is]one of the few
stocks where I can
say that the odds of a
negative return over
the next 20 years are
almost zero.
‘I put my 2011 picks together with two things in mind –
tortoises and greenbacks,’ writes Gareth Brown.
‘Firstly, I wanted a defensive portfolio: tortoises not hares.
That wasn’t made with a market forecast in mind, rather
in the knowledge that many other analysts were likely
to include their best but riskier ideas and I wanted to
give my portfolio the chance to ‘do a Bradbury’ should
the world collapse. So far, the market isn’t helping at all!
‘Secondly, I was (and remain) concerned about the
Australian dollar. I wanted a portfolio that would do well
if the local currency crashed, meaning companies with
significant offshore earnings were given preference.
Gareth’s Greatest
Stock Price atPrice at Divs.Value atTotal
15/11/11 29/11/13
29/11/13return
QBE Insurance $14.61 $15.65$0.95 $16.60 14%
Finding little affiliation with hares or far slower
creatures, what really sets Gaurav’s pulse racing is
cheap gold stocks.
‘With regulatory changes affecting Spark Infrastructure
(see Storm brews for Spark Infrastructure (Hold – $1.60)),’
writes Gaurav Sodhi, ‘I would, if the rules permitted, sell
the stock and pocket the 44% gain. Forced inertia is
always the problem with this kind of competition but we
all know the rules going in.’
‘Antares has announced that it will sell all its assets for
$300m. After paying tax, the company should have about
$0.75 cash by early next year so I’m happy to hold at
current prices but am a bit perplexed about the discount
implied by today’s price.
‘And then there’s gold. My ETF selection has been costly,
dropping 8% in the competition’s first year and 15% in
the second, but it has fared far better than any miner.
Gold miners are universally unloved but they are not
universally cheap. I’m tempted to add a gold miner as
my new pick but would feel more comfortable with a
portfolio of miners. Again, I’m foiled by the rules [moan,
moan. Why not just bend them like everyone else? – Ed]
Computershare $8.16 $10.89$0.56 $11.45 40%
Berkshire
Hathaway Average
$73.77 $127.91
–$127.91 73%
42%
‘While I’m no longer following Australian stocks closely
[Gareth set to work with the Intelligent Investor International
Fund earlier this year – Ed], QBE seems to be struggling
through. The latest results weren’t great, but turnarounds
take time. Clearly, the stock hasn’t lived up to our original
expectations, but it hasn’t been a disaster either.
‘I think Computershare is one of the finest large
businesses listed in Australia, one of our few global market
leaders. The stock still looks reasonably priced against
fairly depressed earnings, and will benefit significantly
when global merger and acquisition activity recovers. It’s
a business with a wide and defendable moat.
‘The bending of the rules to include international stock
Berkshire Hathaway in my portfolio caused uproar
among other participants – mere jealousy of original
thought [cough, splutter – Ed]. The stock has had a good
year and I wouldn’t rush out to buy it today, but keeping
my portfolio’s aims in mind – tortoises and greenbacks
– it’s fulfilling its role perfectly.
‘My additional selection this year is ALE Property Group.
This stock will probably underperform if the bull market
continues to rage, but that’s not why I’ve chosen it. It’s
one of the few stocks where I can say that the odds of a
negative return over the next 20 years are almost zero.
Offering a decent yield with attractive inflation protection,
which is unusual for such a safe investment, ALE is an
anomaly in a world gone mad reaching for yield. It’s also
my tortoise-like pick for this year.’
Gareth Brown is an analyst with Intelligent Investor Funds
Management.
Disclosure: Gareth Brown owns shares in QBE Insurance and
Computershare.
Sodhi’s Stockpile
Stock Price atPrice at Divs.Value atTotal
15/11/11 29/11/13
29/11/13return
Spark Infra.
$1.28 $1.63$0.21 $1.84 44%
Antares Energy $0.43 $0.51
–$0.5117%
Physical Gold $168.74 $131.60
–$131.60 –22%
Average
13%
‘Buy ideas are hard to come by. Last year I picked
Aristocrat Leisure as my addition for its explosive
potential. Another contender is Echo Entertainment,
a mismanaged and out of favour casino operator which
should deliver improvements under new management.
Caltex and News Corp were also on my short list, each
with specific reasons for undervaluation.
‘In the end, though, I can’t resist the temptation offered
by the gold miners. It’s not the most sensible decision
but, then again, this isn’t the most sensible competition.
Yes, I’m sulking. Kingsrose get the nod for its low costs
and improving production.’
Gaurav Sodhi is an analyst with Intelligent Investor
Share Advisor.
Disclosure: Gaurav Sodhi owns shares in Antares Energy and
Kingsrose Mining.
7
Special report
Jason Prowd
Graham Witcomb
It’s fair to say Jason hasn’t had a great year, but he
isn’t losing hope, or sleep, even though he didn’t
pick Village Roadshow.
Graham joined our research team earlier this year
with an interest in microcaps but his first selection
needs no introduction.
‘One year in QBE Insurance and Enero Group were the
major drags on my performance,’ laments Jason Prowd,
‘but they’ve both enjoyed major recoveries in the second
year, while my third pick Crowe Horwath (formerly WHK
Group) has been in the doghouse.’
‘QBE’s 49% return in year two gives it an overall gain of
14%, but it remains a business that can earn significantly
more assuming new chief John Neal can refocus the culture
on writing profitable policies and it’s not hit with excessive
unexpected claims. The US exposure remains attractive
and I’m more than happy to hold at current prices.
Graham isn’t part of the competition but he does have
a few interesting stocks for your consideration up his
sleeve; one conventional and two that you may not have
even heard of.
‘First up, it’s hard to go past Computershare. It has
so much going for it and looks inexpensive based on
depressed earnings. We’ve written plenty about the stock,
so I won’t add to that here.
‘My favourite microcap is Zicom: a Singaporean
manufacturer of deck machinery, biomedical equipment
and automated production lines. Zicom maintained
profitability even when its primary market – marine
construction – practically went to zero in the global
financial crisis. Demand for the company’s machinery
lags shipbuilding and, if that sector continues to recover,
the worst will be over. Zicom is earning about $6.2m a
year on $64m of net tangible assets (of which $18m is
cash) and has a market cap of $52m. That looks like good
value to me, especially while the Australian dollar is high.
Jason’s Slackpot
Stock Price atPrice at Divs.Value atTotal
15/11/11 29/11/13
29/11/13return
Crowe Horwath $0.87 $0.60$0.12 $0.72 –17%
QBE Insurance $14.61 $15.65$0.95 $16.60 14%
Enero Group Average
$1.13 $0.73
– $0.73–36%
–13%
Witcomb’s Winners
Not much has to go
right for [Enero’s]
stock price to
respond.
‘Although Enero’s share price has nearly doubled over the
past year, it remains underwater from the entry price. The
price rise is a function of extremely low expectations being
exceeded rather than dramatically improved performance.
Indeed performance is still poor. Revenue from continuing
operations fell again this year and the company failed to
even turn an underlying profit.
‘Here I agree with the Intelligent Investor Funds
Management team; this business still has cash on the
balance sheet and the potential to turn a decent profit.
Not much has to go right for the stock price to respond.
‘It’s been a lousy year for my second pick, accountants
Crowe Horwarth. A takeover bid amounted to nothing
when it admitted earnings weren’t going to meet
expectations. Since then the chief executive has been
replaced and the business faces a much more uncertain
future. Higher margin consulting work has dried up,
although there remains a stable compliance driven
business underneath. Indeed, we’ve recommended
selling the stock (see WHK takes the ostrich approach
on 8 May 13 (Sell – $0.68)). Although the business has
proved weaker than expected, I’m a bit more sanguine
than the wider team about its future.
‘Given the opportunity to pick a new stock today I’d opt
for M2 Telecommunications. M2 is cheap on a forecast
earnings multiple of less than 11. Better still it has the
potential to grow nicely over the next year or so. Let’s hope
it does a tad better than last year’s new pick Billabong
International (I should have picked Village Roadshow!).’
Jason Prowd is an analyst with Intelligent Investor
Share Advisor.
Disclosure: Jason Prowd owns shares in QBE Insurance, Enero
Group and Crowe Horwath.
StockPrice at 29/11/13
Computershare
$10.89
Zicom Group
$0.25
Saferoads
$0.17
‘My last pick is Saferoads, which makes road safety
products. The company was a mess so the founder
returned to save it. His shareholder letters show plenty of
honesty and, while it’s still loss-making, he has improved
Saferoads’ fundamentals. I sold out personally when the
stock hit a recent high, but it wouldn’t surprise me if I
regret doing so.’
Graham Witcomb is a junior analyst with Intelligent
Investor Share Advisor.
Disclosure: Graham Witcomb owns shares in Zicom Group.
Note: Our model Growth and Income portfolios own
many of the stocks mentioned in this article.
Intelligent Investor
PO Box Q744
Queen Vic. Bldg NSW 1230
T02 8305 6000
F02 9387 8674
info@intelligentinvestor.com.au
shares.intelligentinvestor.com.au
8