Perception of Risk in Promoting Social
Policies for Resilience
Chad J. McGuire
Associate Professor and Chair
Department of Public Policy
Risk Perception
• Risk perception is a function of both
objective and subjective factors.
• People discount the future in favor of
the present (temporal discounting).
• Changes in background conditions
can influence risk perception.
Preferences and Perceptions
We tend to think of the future in positive
terms, regardless of past experiences
(evidence to the contrary).
(Urminksy & Zaumerman, 2014)
Blue: Bad
Yellow: Good
Dan Gilbert, Harvard
Preferences and Perceptions
We tend to devalue the future in favor of
present utility.
(Spangenberg, 2004)
Blue: Bad
Yellow: Good
The future is at least as good
as today, and today is not that
bad.
Preferences and Perceptions
We tend to support our past decisions
(choice-supportive bias).
(Gordon et al.,
2005)
Glad we
bought on
the coast!
Best decision
we’ve ever
made!
Summary
• The future is better than today.
• I can make decisions about tomorrow
based on what I see today.
• I am biased towards reinforcing past
decisions I deem “good.”
Risk Perception and Climate Change
• People perceive the risk differently because of
bias.
• Government actions can help support bias, or
work to remove that bias.
• Trick is establishing policies that help the
public match perceived risk to actual risk.
Actual Risk
Perceived Risk
Actual risks are clearly
understood and
communicated
Actual risks are unclear and poorly
communicated
(McGuire, 2014)
Why This Matters
We are predisposed
to support our past
choices
Mass CZM & Mass GIS, 2012
Scituate, MA
Winter Storm 2015
Concluding Thoughts
• Actual risks are increasing.
• Our perception of risk plays
“catch-up” to actual risks.
• Actions require matching
perceived and actual risks.
• Government must take the lead.