THE INDEPENDENT AND NONP,'\RTIS,'\!\J ':~iiFJ,\I[Y
OF PUBLIC OPINiON ESTABLlSHf:1J iN:'),"
AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL FJY MERVIN FIELD
550 Kearny Street, SUite <=:iOO
San FrancIsco, C/I (J·1j1Ji32;;~ .
(415) 78149;;1 F/IX
J"!i;
COPYRIGHT 1994 BY THE FIELD INSTIIUIE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.
Release #1732
Release Date: Wednesday, September 28,1994
MAJORITIES FAVOR PROP. 184
(THREE STRIKES), BUT 'OPPOSE
PROP. 186 (SINGLE PAYER HEALTH).
OPINIONS OF PROP. 188 (SMOKING)
ARE EVENLY SPLIT.
IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is
suhject to revocation if publication or broadcast
takes place before release date or if contents are
divUlged to persons outside of subscriber staff
prior to release time. aSSN 0195-4520)
by Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field
•
Three controversial initiatives which will appear on the November general election ballot
are Prop. 184, the so-called '''Three Strikes and You're Out" initiative having to do with
criminal sentencing, Prop. 186, the single payer health reform initiative, and Prop. 188, the
statewide smoking regulations initiative.
In a statewide surv~y completed September 13-18, The Field Poll obtained voter
awareness and preferences regarding each of these initiatives. The results show that voters
are currently aligning themselves in support of Prop. 184 (Three Strikes), opposed to Prop.
186 (Single Payer Health) and are closely divided on Prop. 188 (Smoking Regulations).
Awareness and predispositions
Nearly all voters (90%) say they have seen or heard something about Prop. 184, the ''Three
Strikes ~md You're Out" criminal sentencing initiative. When voters who are aware of the
initiative are asked their predispositions prior to reading them a summary of the ballot
description, supporters outnumber opponents nearly three to one (59% to 21 %, with 10%
undecided).
A majority of voters (58%) now reports some awareness of Prop. 186, the single payer
health initiative. This is up from 38% awareness in July. The predispositions of those
who have heard of the initiative are 28% No to 20% Yes and 10% undecided.
•
Fewer than half of all voters (47%) are currently aware of Prop. 188, the statewide
smoking regulations initiative. Among those with some prior awareness opinions are
about even!y split - 19% Yes, 17% No and 6% undecided.
The Fieid (California) Po!! has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent and impartial public opinion news service The Pol!
is one of the services proVided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan orgar'i1zatron devoted to the study of public opinion and
behavior on social and politlca! Issues, The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of its survey
findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives support from academiC. government. media, and private sources.
The Field Poll
Wednesday, September 28, 1994
•
#1732
Page 2
Table 1
Voter awareness and predispositions on Props. 184, 186 and 188
(among registered voters)
Prop. 184
Prop. 186
Prop. 188
(Three Strikes
(Single
(Smoking
and You're QuO
Payer Health)
Regulations)
Smt
.My
Smt
.My
Smt.
.lDh
10%
14%
42%
62%
53%
59%
Have not seenlheard
Have seenlheard
~
41
.2Q
.8Q.
~
Jli
59%
49%
20%
13%
19%
18%
Inclined to vote Yes
21
19
28
16
17
17
Inclined to vote No
11
6
10
18
10
9
Undecided
How voters divide after ballot descriptions are read
All voters regardless of prior awareness or predispositions were then read a summary of
each initiative's official ballot label and asked how they would vote if the election were
being held today. The results reveal that voters favor Prop. 184 (Three Strikes) by a greater
than two to one margin - 61% Yes, 25% No and 14% undecided. These fmdings are
similar to those found two months ago.
•
Conversely, opposition is growing against the single payer"health initiative, Prop. 186.
Currently 53% of voters say they would vote No, 30% would vote Yes and 17% are
undecided after the ~allot initiative and its fiscal impact are described. This 23 point No
vote plurality is up from a 6 point deficit in a mid-July Field Poll survey.
Voter sentiment regarding Prop. 188, the statewide smoking regulations initiative, is
currently evenly split with 45% opposed, 42% in favor and 13% undecided after the ballot
description and fISCal impact are read. However, this represents a decline in support for the
initiative compared to July when it was favored 52% to 38%.
Voter preferences regarding each of these initiatives among likely voters are not
significantly different than the registered voter distributions.
•
Table 2
How voters divide after ballot summaries of Props. 184, 186 and 188
(among registered voters)
Prop. 184
Prop. 186
Prop. 188
(Three Strikes
(Single
(Smoking
and You're QuO
Payer Health)
Regulations)
Sept.
.My
Sept.
.My
Sept.
.My
Yes
42%
52%
61%
64%
30%
36%
No
25
24
53
42
45
38
Undecided
14
12
17
22
13
10
-30­
#1732
The Field Poll
Wednesday, September 28, 1994
•
Page 3
Information About the Survey
Sample Details
The results in this report are based on a telephone survey of 855 Californians conducted September
13-18, 1994, including a representative statewide sample of 574 registered voters. The survey was
completed by telephone in either English or Spanish using random digit dialing methods.
Estimates of sampling error relate to sample size. According to statistical theory, 95% of the time
findings from the overall registered voter sample have a sampling error range of +/- 4.2 percentage
points.
There are many possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability. Different
results could occur because of differences in question wording, sequencing or through undetected
errors or omission in sampling, interviewing or data processing. Every effort was made to
minimize such errors.
Questions Asked
•
Have you seen, read or heard anything about Proposition 184, a statewide proposition about
criminal sentencing referred to as the 'Three Strikes and You're Out" initiative that will appear on
the November general election ballot?
IF YES: From what you have seen, read or heard, are you inclined to vote YES or NO on
Proposition 184 if the election were being held today?
(As you know) Proposition 184 would increase the sentences for convicted felons who have
previous convictions for serious or violent felonies. It includes as prior convictions certain felonies
committed by older juveniles. Fiscal impact: Reaffirms existing law, which results in annual state
costs initially of hundreds of millions increasing to multi-billion dollars. If the election were being
held today, would you be inclined to vote YES or NO on Proposition 184?
Have you seen, read or heard anything about Proposition 186, a statewide proposition to establish a
single payer health care system in California that will appear on the November general election
ballot?
IF YES: From what you have seen, read or heard, are you inclined to vote YES or NO on
Proposition 186 if the election were being held today?
(As you know) Proposition 186 establishes a health services system and defines benefits for
California residents to replace existing health insurance, premiums and programs. Costs and
provider payments would be funded by employer, individual and tobacco taxes. An elected Health
Commissioner administers the Fund and the system. Fiscal impact: Potentially over 75 billion
dollars in government funds to provide health insurance. Costs could be greater or less than the
funds. Potential government savings over time. If the election were being held today, would you
be inclined to vote YES or NO on Proposition 186 ?
Have you seen, read or heard anything about Proposition 188, a statewide proposition about
smoking and tobacco products that will appear on the November general election ballot?
From what you have seen, read or heard, are you inclined to vote YES or NO on Proposition 188
if the election were being held today?
(As you know) Proposition 188 preempts local smoking laws and replaces existing regulations
with a limited public smoking ban. It permits regulated smoking in most public places and
penalizes tobacco purchases made by a minor. Fiscal impact: Likely, but unknown, annual
increase in state and local government health care costs and state tobacco tax revenues. State
enforcement costs ofless than 1 million dollars annually. If the election were being held today,
would you be inclined to vote YES or NO on Proposition 188?