Global Economic Briefing:
Central Bank Balance Sheets
Yardeni Research, Inc.
March 4, 2016
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
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Mali Quintana
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aquintana@yardeni.com
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Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Total Assets of Major Central Banks
Fed Balance Sheet
Fed Assets
Fed Bond Purchases
Federal Reserve Repo Balances
ECB Balance Sheet
Bank of Japan
PBOC Balance Sheet
US Treasuries & Agencies Held by Central Banks
March 4, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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Total Assets of Major Central Banks
Figure 1.
17
16
13
TOTAL ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS
Jan
(all in trillions of US dollars)
12
Feb
15
14
10
Total
Excluding
PBOC (11.1)
Total
Assets* (16.0)
13
12
11
9
8
11
7
10
6
9
8
5
7
4
6
3
2008
5.0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
FED
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
4.3
ECB
4.6
Feb
4.0
4.2
3.7
3.8
Total (4.5)
3.4
Total (3.2)
3.4
3.0
Feb
3.1
2.6
2.8
2.2
1.8
2.5
1.4
2.2
1.0
.6
1.9
2008
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
BOJ
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
5.7
PBOC
Feb
Jan
Total (3.5)
5.2
4.7
Total (5.1)
4.2
3.7
3.2
2.7
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2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.2
2016
* Includes US, ECB, Bank of Japan, and PBOC.
Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 1 / March 4, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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Fed Balance Sheet
Figure 2.
4.5
4.0
FED’S ASSETS*
3/2
(trillion dollars)
5.0
FED’S LIABILITIES*
(trillion dollars)
3/2
4.5
3.5
4.0
3.0
3.5
2.5
3.0
US Treasuries +
Agency Debt +
MBS
2.0
1.5
2.5
2.0
Total
Liquidity Facilities
1.0
1.5
.5
1.0
.0
.5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2.7
3.0
3/2
2.4
2.7
3/2
2.1
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
.9
US Treasury Securities
.6
.9
Reserve Balances
with Fed
(Depository Institutions’
Deposits at Fed)
Agency Debt + MBS
.3
.6
.3
.0
.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
.8
2016
3/2
.6
.4
Central Bank
Liquidity Swaps
Other Loans
.2
Federal Reserve Notes
3/2
.0
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
*Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesdays.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
2016
2008
2009
2010
Page 2 / March 4, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1.40
1.36
1.32
1.28
1.24
1.20
1.16
1.12
1.08
1.04
1.00
.96
.92
.88
.84
.80
.76
2016
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Fed Assets
Figure 3.
4.8
4.4
FED’S
ASSETS*
(trillion dollars)
4.8
QE1
QE2
QE3 & QE4
3/2
4.4
4.0
4.0
3.6
3.6
3.2
3.2
2.8
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.0
2.0
Total Assets
1.6
1.6
US Treasuries
+ Agency Debt
+ MBS
1.2
1.2
.8
.8
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.4
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
.4
2016
* Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday.
Note: QE1 (announced 11/25/08) = Fed buys $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE2 (announced 11/3/10) = Fed buys $600bn in Treasuries.
QE3 (announced 9/13/12) = Fed buys $40bn/month in mortgage securities (to infinity and beyond). QE4 (announced 12/12/12) = Fed buys $45bn/month
in Treasuries.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Figure 4.
2.6
2.4
FED’S
ASSETS*
(trillion dollars)
2.6
QE1
QE2
3/2
QE3 & QE4
2.2
2.4
2.2
US Treasury
Securities
2.0
1.8
2.0
1.8
Agency Debt +
MBS
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
.8
.8
.6
.6
.4
.4
.2
.2
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.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
.0
2016
* Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday.
Note: QE1 (announced 11/25/08) = Fed buys $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE2 (announced 11/3/10) = Fed buys $600bn in Treasuries.
QE3 (announced 9/13/12) = Fed buys $40bn/month in mortgage securities (to infinity and beyond). QE4 (announced 12/12/12) = Fed buys $45bn/month
in Treasuries.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Page 3 / March 4, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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Fed Bond Purchases
Figure 5.
300
250
300
FED NET PURCHASES OF US TREASURY & US AGENCY BONDS + MBS
(monthly change, billion dollars)
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
Feb
0
-50
-50
2009
150
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
150
FED NET PURCHASES OF US TREASURY BONDS
100
100
50
50
Feb
0
-50
-50
2009
200
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
200
FED NET PURCHASES OF US AGENCY BONDS + MBS
150
150
100
100
50
50
Feb
0
yardeni.com
-50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
-50
2016
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Page 4 / March 4, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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Federal Reserve Repo Balances
Figure 6.
800
800
FEDERAL RESERVE REPO BALANCES
(monthly change, thousands, sa)
600
600
400
400
Feb
200
200
yardeni.com
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
2016
Source: Federal Reserve.
Page 5 / March 4, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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ECB Balance Sheet
Figure 7.
3200
3000
2800
TOTAL ASSETS
1400
SELECTED LIABILITIES
(billion euros)
2/26
(billion euros)
1200
Euro Area Credit
Institutions in Euro
Deposit Facility
2600
2400
1000
2/26
800
2200
600
2000
400
1800
200
1600
0
1400
1200
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1350
Liabilities to Other
Euro Area
Residents
in Euro
1250
1150
1050
950
Lending to Euro Area
Credit Institutions in Euro
2/26
850
750
650
550
2/26
450
350
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
2016
1500
1200
Securities of Euro Area
Residents in Euro
2/26
1000
500
Bank Notes
in Circulation
2/26
1000
800
General Govt Debt
Denominated in Euro
0
600
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
800
1100
Foreign Reserves
Including Gold
600
Miscellaneous
Liabilities*
2/26
1000
900
2/26
400
800
700
Claims on Euro Area
Residents in
Foreign Currency
200
600
500
yardeni.com
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
400
2016
* Total liabilities minus sum of lending to euro area credit institutions in euro, liabilities to other euro area residents in euro, and bank notes in circulation.
Source: European Central Bank.
Page 6 / March 4, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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Bank of Japan
Figure 8.
300
300
JAPAN: RESERVE BALANCES
AT BOJ
Z
(trillion yen, reserve adjusted)
Feb
200
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200
100
100
0
0
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy.
Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.
Source: Bank of Japan.
Figure 9.
10
10
JAPAN: INTEREST RATES
Z
(percent)
10-Year
Government
Bond Yield
8
8
Bank of Japan
Overnight Rate
6
6
4
4
2
2
3/4
0
-2
0
yardeni.com
89
90
91
-2
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy.
Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.
Source: Bank of Japan.
Page 7 / March 4, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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PBOC Balance Sheet
Figure 10.
6.2
5.7
5.2
4.7
4.2
3.7
3.2
PBOC ASSETS
6.2
5.7
5.2
4.7
4.2
3.7
3.2
Jan
(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)
2.7
2.7
2.2
2.2
1.7
1.7
1.2
1.2
.7
.7
Total Assets (5.1)
Foreign Exchange Assets (3.7)
Nongold International Reserves
Held by China (IMF data) (3.2)
yardeni.com
.2
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
.2
2017
Source: People’s Bank of China and IMF.
Figure 11.
85
80
85
PBOC ASSETS
(percent)
80
Foreign Exchange Held/Total PBOC Assets
75
75
Jan
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
yardeni.com
2002
2003
35
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: People’s Bank of China and IMF.
Page 8 / March 4, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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US Treasuries & Agencies Held by Central Banks
Figure 12.
3400
3200
3400
US TREASURIES HELD BY FED & FOREIGN OFFICIAL ACCOUNTS
(billion dollars)
3200
3000
3/2
2800
3000
2800
2600
Held by Fed
2600
2400
Foreign Official
Dollar Reserves*
2400
2200
2200
2000
2000
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
yardeni.com
400
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
400
2016
* Held by foreign official institutions at the Fed. Average of week ending Wednesday.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1.
Figure 13.
2005
2005
US AGENCIES HELD BY FED & FOREIGN OFFICIAL ACCOUNTS
(billion dollars)
Held by Fed (1788.3)
1505
1505
Foreign Official Dollar Reserves* (273.3)
1005
1005
505
505
11/25
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5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5
2016
* Held by foreign official institutions at the Fed. Average of week ending Wednesday.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1.
Page 9 / March 4, 2016 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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