THE TIOGA GROUP
Project 99-130:
Goods Movement Truck and Rail Study
Executive Summary
Prepared for:
Southern California Association of Governments
January 2003
THE T IOGA GROUP
Contents
Overall Findings and Implications .............................................................................................. 1
Purpose .......................................................................................................................................... 2
Background.................................................................................................................................... 3
Truck Transportation................................................................................................................... 4
Rail Transportation..................................................................................................................... 10
Potential Modal Diversions ....................................................................................................... 24
VMT and Emissions Impacts ..................................................................................................... 29
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Exhibits
Exhibit 1: Average Length of Haul by Mode ............................................................................ 4
Exhibit 2: Modal Shares and Length of Haul............................................................................. 5
Exhibit 3: Average Value by Mode ............................................................................................. 5
Exhibit 4: Truck Segment Length of Haul.................................................................................. 6
Exhibit 5: LA– Bakersfield Trip Impacts ................................................................................... 8
Exhibit 6: LA – Phoenix Trip Impacts ........................................................................................ 8
Exhibit 7: LA – Border Trip Impacts ......................................................................................... 9
Exhibit 8: LA – Barstow Trip Impacts ....................................................................................... 9
Exhibit 9: Major Rail Routes..................................................................................................... 11
Exhibit 10: Rail Market Geography.......................................................................................... 14
Exhibit 11: Rail Miles From Los Angeles ................................................................................. 16
Exhibit 12: Intermodal Service Comparison............................................................................ 19
Exhibit 13: Intermodal Facility Locations ................................................................................ 20
Exhibit 14: Intermodal Facility Coverage ................................................................................ 20
Exhibit 15: Intermodal “Breakeven” Zone .............................................................................. 21
Exhibit 16: Local vs. Intermodal Markets................................................................................ 22
Exhibit 17: Central Intermodal Terminal Locations ............................................................... 23
Exhibit 18: Truck Congestion Taper......................................................................................... 24
Exhibit 19: Internal Trip Centroids .......................................................................................... 25
Exhibit 20: External Trip Centroids ......................................................................................... 25
Exhibit 21: Example of Modal Commodity Shares ................................................................ 26
Exhibit 22: Intermodal Diversion Estimates ............................................................................ 27
Exhibit 23: Rail Transload Diversion Estimates...................................................................... 28
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Exhibit 24: Combined Diversion Estimates.............................................................................. 29
Exhibit 25: Cordon Point Distances .......................................................................................... 29
Exhibit 26: Rail Transloading VMT Impacts........................................................................... 30
Exhibit 27: Intermodal VMT Impacts ...................................................................................... 30
Exhibit 28: Combined VMT Impacts ........................................................................................ 31
Exhibit 29: Combined Emissions Impacts ................................................................................ 31
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Goods Movement Truck and Rail Study
Executive Summary
Overall Findings and Implications
Surface freight transportation via truck and rail will be vital to the SCAG region under any
current or future scenario. The efficiency of freight transportation affects the prospects for
regional job creation and the strength of the local economy. The trucking industry is facing
difficult times in Southern California and elsewhere. Congestion, costs, and periodic driver
shortages are all increasing. Diversion of truckload and LTL traffic to rail carload, transload, or
intermodal service is a logical step to promote long-term efficiency and minimize congestion and
emissions.
•
Increased carload rail service would reduce congestion and emissions, but has
practical access and logistics limits.
•
Truck-rail transloading has significant potential to increase the use of rail carload
service for line-haul freight transportation and decrease truck VMT and emissions
on regional highways. Due to the need for local pick up and delivery, however,
transloading may not reduce the number of local/urban truck trips.
•
Intermodal transportation likewise has significant potential to mitigate emissions
and congestion on major interregional access routes. The intermodal industry has
already been successful in serving the long-haul markets to and from the SCAG
region, and there may be limits to further marker penetration. Again, the need for
local/urban pick up and delivery trips would remain.
•
The regional rail network has reserve capacity at present, but there are limits on
the ability of the rail network to expand service, including the competing needs of
passenger rail systems. Railroads will be reluctant to devote scarce capacity and
capital to shorter-haul traffic.
Diversion of truck traffic to rail, therefore, would be a positive step but not a panacea.
Where the potential for traffic and emissions mitigation is constrained by rail capacity, a case can
be made for public sector support.
•
Truck diversion potential is greatest in “short-haul” rail corridors.
•
The largest volume of inter-regional truck trips are under 500 miles, which is
“short-haul,” low-revenue traffic for the railroads.
The largest potential diversions of SCAG region truck traffic are in the I-5 corridor, where shorthaul rail carload/transload and intermodal traffic has difficulty competing due to geography.
Although the railroads recognize the potential and have taken the initiative to market their
services in the I-5 corridor, market penetration has been small.
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Both intermodal and transloading services require investment in facilities.
•
Existing intermodal facilities are nearing capacity, and their expansion potential at
existing sites is limited.
•
Transloading facilities are primarily private concerns, although their development
has been supported by the railroads to some extent.
Public capital or operating support may be required to realize the potential for short-haul truck
diversions.
•
Railroads cannot be expected to devote scarce line and terminal capacity to shorthaul opportunities without adequate returns.
•
The public benefits of additions to rail line and terminal capacity may be justified
by the potential for truck traffic diversions.
Purpose
Freight transportation is a major U.S. and worldwide industry. Worldwide, industrialized and
developing nations depend on efficient freight transportation for internal distribution of goods
and for growing trade with the rest of the world. Efficient freight transportation is critical to a
healthy regional economy.
•
Freight transportation typically accounts for 12-15% of the value of finished
products.
•
Manufacturers and other shippers rely on efficient freight transportation to obtain
raw materials and to compete in distant markets.
•
Wholesalers, retailers, and other receivers need efficient freight transportation to
obtain and distribute goods economically, on time, and in good condition.
The propose of this study was to provide SCAG with a broad understanding of surface freight
transportation in the region.
•
Determine the potential for movement of freight by train.
•
Determine whether truck or rail infrastructure and operational improvements will
influence future rail and truck volumes.
•
Examine the potential for shorter range freight movements.
•
Establish the energy and environmental impacts within the region for trains and
trucks.
•
Provide guidance to policy makers on investments in truck and rail facilities.
This study is focused on truck, rail, and intermodal freight transportation.
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•
Truck and rail the inland surface modes that carry the vast majority of freight of
concern to the general public.
•
Intermodal, in this study, includes rail/truck movements and the rail and truck
portions of marine/rail/truck movements.
•
Air carriers primarily handle high-priority, lightweight, or very valuable freight in
express or air cargo service, and are not analyzed.
•
Pipelines handle liquid commodities in bulk, mostly petroleum and petroleum
products, and are also not analyzed.
•
Marine carriers handle waterborne shipments, and are only mentioned in
connection with rail and truck modes.
Background
There is no single public source of consolidated, detailed freight data across multiple modes. The
project team acquired and complied the following sources.
•
1999 Carload Waybill Sample (rail)
•
1997 Commodity Flow Survey (all modes)
•
2000 (base year) SCAG Heavy Duty Truck Model
These data sources do not match in the details of methodology, coverage, definitions, or
classification. The analysis conducted for this project is intended, therefore, to inform and
support broad policy decisions rather than to examine individual freight flows.
The data showed that intercity freight transportation is overwhelmingly regional in character.
•
80% of the tonnage originating in Southern California stays within the SCAG
region.
•
90% of the tonnage originating in Southern California stays within the state.
•
77% of the tonnage received in Southern California comes from within the SCAG
region.
•
83% of the tonnage received in Southern California comes from within the state.
Length of haul (Exhibit 1) differs noticeably by mode.
•
Trucking is a regional and local business, with a short average length of haul.
Over 75% of the truck tonnage moves less than 50 miles.
•
Rail and intermodal are primarily long-haul modes, although rail movements
include both short and long hauls.
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Exhibit 1: Average Length of Haul by Mode
1997 Shipments from Southern California:
Average Length of Haul by Mode
2,369
2,500
2,000
1,525
1,500
1,167
1,000
500
288
Truck*
Source: 1997 CFS
Rail
Parcel
Multiple Modes
* For-Hire & Private
Truck Transportation
Truckload carriage dominates SCAG regional freight transportation (Exhibit 2). Trucking is the
default mode, and truck ton-miles are growing faster than other modes. From the customer’s
viewpoint, truck is the default mode due to:
•
pre-bundled truck delivery in terms of sale;
•
lack of knowledge regarding complex alternatives;
•
risk seen in alternatives; and
•
shortage of management time and resources to explore choices.
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Exhibit 2: Modal Shares and Length of Haul
Modal Shares & Length of Haul
1997 CFS Data for Southern California
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
1%
3%
4%
4%
95%
10%
13%
5%
90%
12%
100% 100% 100%
85%
98%
96%
4%
91%
Rail Intermodal
Rail Carload
Truckload
80%
3%
87%
84% 83%
75%
<50
50 to 99
100 to
249
250 to
499
500 to
749
750 to
999
1000 to 1500 to
1499
1999
2000+
Trucks carry the higher-value freight, as shown in Exhibit 3.
Exhibit 3: Average Value by Mode
1997 Shipments from Southern California:
Average Value per Ton by Mode
$1,200
$1,000
$995
$767
$800
$600
$400
$200
$Truck*
Source: 1997 CFS
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Rail
* For-hire & private
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Over-the-road (OTR) trucking includes two major kinds of service relevant to this study.
•
Truckload service (TL) – For-hire or private units moving as a single shipment
directly between origin shipper and consignee.
•
Less-Than-Truckload service (LTL) and Parcel Service – Long-haul trucks
moving multiple shipments between terminals with local pickup and delivery by
smaller trucks.
Most heavy-duty trucks are in private fleets engaged in truckload service for the fleet owner. As
Exhibit 4 shows, most trucks serve local and short-haul markets.
Exhibit 4: Truck Segment Length of Haul
1997 California Shipments: Truck LOH Distribution
90%
80%
For-Hire Truck
Share of Tons
70%
Private Truck
60%
Parcel & USPS
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
<50
50 to 99
Source: 1997 CFS
100 to
249
250 to
499
500 to
749
750 to
999
1000 to
1499
1500 to
1999
2000+
Length of Haul - Miles
Regional Trucking Trends
The trucking industry is facing difficult times in Southern California and elsewhere.
•
A pervasive driver shortage is affecting every segment of the trucking industry.
Wages, training costs, and recruitment expenses are all rising.
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•
Insurance is a hidden cost in trucking, but it is also rising. A serious side issue is
that rising insurance costs tempt marginal firms to skimp on coverage or let it
lapse.
•
Fuel prices have come down a bit in recent months but are still uncomfortably
high.
Against this background of rising costs customers continue to demand better, faster, and cheaper
service.
Environmental restrictions also have an impact on trucking.
•
Stricter current and future environmental standards in Southern California and the
state as a whole raise trucking costs compared to other regions.
•
“Clean” diesel fuel is more costly; truckers avoid filling up their tanks in
California.
•
Older, less costly equipment is less likely to pass inspection in California.
•
Stricter emissions standards may eventually require truckers to operate separate
equipment in California, complicating operations.
The most pervasive trend in Southern California truck transportation is the impact of congestion.
•
Congestion affects operations and cost. Congestion adversely affects average
speed, reliability, and predictability of truck service. By forcing trucking firms
and their drivers to take more time for the same transportation service, congestion
cuts productivity and raises costs. In slower stop-and-go operations trucks are less
efficient and incur higher fuel and maintenance costs for the same trip length. By
lengthening delivery times and diminishing reliability, congestion hurts trucking
service quality.
•
Congestion adversely affects truck drivers. Long-haul drivers are paid by the
mile, and congestion reduces their earning potential. Intermodal drayage drivers
(owner-operators) are paid by the trip, so slower speeds reduce their daily earning
potential as well. Congestion and its adverse impacts exacerbate the truck driver
shortage. Freight movement growth and longer trips times due to congestion
require more truck drivers at the same time the population pool of eligible drivers
is shrinking and better employment options are growing.
•
Congestion exacerbates environmental problems. Congestion increases fuel
use and emissions at the same time diesel trucks are being held to more stringent
emissions standards and fuel prices are increasing.
The four examples below show representative regional trucking movements and illustrate the
impact of congestion and delay. Current costs were estimated at $1.12 per mile. The study team
then developed estimates of driving time and cost under significantly increased highway
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congestion. Note that the cost per mile increases as speed drops to keep driver earnings at an
acceptable level. For illustrative purposes, congestion-related costs were estimated at $1.55 per
mile.
Exhibit 5: LA– Bakersfield Trip Impacts
LA
LA to
to Bakersfield
Bakersfield
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 111.6
111.6 miles
miles
Total
Total travel
travel time:
time: 22 hours,
hours, 18
18 minutes
minutes
Driving
Driving time:
time: 22 hours,
hours, 18
18 minutes
minutes
Cost:
Cost: $124.99
$124.99
LA
LA to
to Bakersfield
Bakersfield
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 111.6
111.6 miles
miles
Base
Base travel
travel time:
time: 22 hours,
hours, 18
18 minutes
minutes
New
New travel
travel time:
time: 44 hours,
hours, 36
36 minutes
minutes
Base
Base Cost:
Cost: $124.99;
$124.99; New
New Cost
Cost $172.98
$172.98
Exhibit 6: LA – Phoenix Trip Impacts
LA
LA to
to Phoenix
Phoenix
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 372.9
372.9miles
miles
Total
Total travel
travel time:
time: 77 hours,
hours, 12
12 minutes
minutes
Driving
Driving time:
time: 7 hours, 12 minutes
Cost:
Cost: $417.67
$417.67
010902 99-130 Ex Summary
LA
LA to
to Phoenix
Phoenix
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 372.9
372.9 miles
Base
Base travel
travel time:
time: 7+
7+ hours
hours
New
New travel
travel time:
time: 14
14 hours,
hours, 30
30 minutes
minutes
Base
Base Cost:$417.67;
Cost:$417.67; New
New Cost
Cost $578.02
$578.02
THE T IOGA GROUP
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Exhibit 7: LA – Border Trip Impacts
LA
LA to
to Border
Border
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 136.2
136.2 miles
miles
Total
Total travel
travel time:
time: 22 hours,
hours, 57
57 minutes
minutes
Driving
time:
2
hours,
57
minutes
Driving time: 2 hours, 57 minutes
Cost:
Cost: $152.52
$152.52
LA
LA to
to Border
Border
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 136.2
136.2 miles
Base
travel
time:
2
Base travel time: 2 hours,
hours, 57
57 minutes
minutes
New
New travel
travel time:
time: 66 hours
hours
Base
Base Cost:
Cost: $152.52;
$152.52; New
New Cost
Cost $211.07
$211.07
Exhibit 8: LA – Barstow Trip Impacts
LA
LA to
to Barstow
Barstow
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 133.7
133.7miles
miles
Total
travel
time:
3
Total travel time: 3 hours,
hours, 44 minutes
minutes
Driving
Driving time:
time: 33 hours,
hours, 44 minutes
minutes
Cost:
Cost: $149.79
$149.79
LA
LA to
to Barstow
Barstow
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 133.7
133.7miles
miles
Base
Base travel
travel time:
time: 33 hours,
hours, 44 minutes
minutes
New
New travel
travel time:
time: 66 hours
hours
Base
Base Cost:
Cost: $149.79;
$149.79; New
New Cost
Cost $207.30
$207.30
Existing plans and programs would not make appreciable improvements in trucking conditions.
•
Major regional truck routes are approaching capacity limits and will require
substantial investments to keep trucks and autos moving at acceptable service
levels.
•
The overall feasibility, cost, and performance of exclusive truck lanes is still open
to question, as analysis has only been completed only one route (SR-60).
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The vast majority of goods-related investments and improvements contemplated in the 2002
SCAG Regional Transportation Improvement Plan are aimed at railroad grade crossings or
conventional highway and street improvements that benefit autos as well as trucks.
Rail Transportation
Rail freight transportation options include carload service, transloading, and intermodal service.
Customers receive service via a company rail siding or must have access to a rail transfer facility
such as an intermodal terminal or a bulk transload site.
Rail Network Overview
The regional rail network has reserve capacity for traffic that might be diverted from the
highway.
•
The major main lines serving the SCAG region are high-capacity routes with
reserve capacity, although prioritization will be necessary.
•
When traffic has grown, railroads have typically invested in higher capacity to
handle it.
•
Railroads ordinarily give priority to long-haul traffic with higher revenue
potential over shorter-haul traffic with lower yield
There are, however, competing uses for that capacity.
•
The growth of the Southern California economy and the portions of that economy
engaged in large-scale manufacturing and processing imply a long-term need for
rail carload service.
•
The existing Southern California domestic intermodal market is growing, with
concomitant demands for both capacity and service.
•
The largest single engine of intermodal growth is international trade though the
San Pedro Bay ports, which could absorb most or all of the existing excess rail
system capacity.
Major Routes
The major routes run generally eastward from Los Angeles, including the ports, to the San
Bernardino area. There are five rail corridors connecting the SCAG region with the rest of the
nation.
•
UP’s Coast Line north through Ventura County to the Bay Area (former SP
route).
•
UP’s Saugus Line via Burbank and Palmdale, connecting with UP’s Central
Valley lines at Mojave (former SP route).
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•
UP’s Palmdale Cutoff between Palmdale and West Colton, allowing UP’s longdistance traffic to bypass the Los Angeles Basin (former SP route).
•
UP’s mainline from Los Angeles via Colton and Beaumont Pass to Yuma and
points east (former SP route).
•
BNSF’s line through Cajon Pass to Barstow and points east (former ATSF route),
which also carries UP’s traffic via trackage rights.
A few major main lines carry most of the traffic, as shown in Exhibit 9.
Exhibit 9: Major Rail Routes
BNSF/UP
BNSF/UP
UP
UP (Ex
(Ex SP)
SP)
UP/BNSF
UP/BNSF
UP
UP (Ex
(Ex SP)
SP)
BNSF
BNSF
Source: U.S. Railroad Traffic Atlas, Ladd Publications, 1997
There are four short lines active in the SCAG Region.
•
Pacific Harbor Line , a subsidiary of Anacostia and Pacific, which handles the
switching and dispatch into and out of the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles.
•
Los Angeles Junction Railway, a subsidiary of the BNSF and managed as part of
the BNSF system, which provides switching services in the Vernon area for both
BNSF and UP.
•
Ventura County Railroad, owned by Rail American Inc., which switches Port
Hueneme and provides a short line connection to the UP.
•
The San Jacinto Branch Line , a BNSF-operated line connecting industries
between Riverside and Hemet to the BNSF and controlled by Riverside County.
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These railroads perform specific local functions, and connect with the trunk-line railroads for
movements to and from the SCAG region. In essence, they serve as feeder lines.
There are numerous industrial switching operations serving individual plants. As these do not
provide common carrier freight transportation, they are not covered by this study.
Passenger Rail Conflicts
The SCAG region is also served by Amtrak and Metrolink, providing intercity and commuter rail
passenger service, respectively. Amtrak uses the lines of the major railroads, and Los Angeles
Union Passenger Terminal. Metrolink primarily uses a network of local lines purchased from the
freight railroads, with other routes shared.
•
The greatly expanded scope of regional rail passenger service limits the
“windows” available for additional freight service.
•
Recent, rapid expansion of regional rail passenger service has pre-empted use of
existing branch lines and main lines.
•
The combination of frequent stops and high running speeds for regional passenger
service is not compatible with efficient, high capacity freight operations or
industrial access.
Railroad Line Capacity
The major factors in railroad line capacity are the following.
•
Number of tracks. Double track generally allows trains to pass in opposite
directions without stopping.
•
Number and length of sidings. Longer sidings on single or multiple track lines
allow for longer trains and increase the likelihood that trains can avoid stopping
when meeting or passing other trains.
•
Number of crossovers and other connections. Crossovers allow trains to use
other tracks but also force trains to slow down.
•
Type of signaling. Centralized Traffic Control is generally expected to yield the
highest capacity but is not justified on low-volume routes. There are many types
and variations of signaling systems.
•
Speed limits. Speed limits are determined both by track and route conditions and
by the environment, including the presence of grade crossings, passenger stations,
etc. Maintaining track standards for higher speeds is costly, and must be justified
by capacity increase and traffic demand.
•
Grade and curvature. To overcome steeper grades and tighter curves, trains
require more power at any given tonnage and speed. As trains must slow down
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around tight curves or when descending steep grades, the number of trains that
can pass through in a given time declines.
•
Traffic mix. Higher speed intermodal traffic will yield more trains, but lower
speed unit trains of bulk commodities will yield more tonnage.
Railroad line and terminal capacity is not an exact science.
•
Different “rules of thumb” result in different capacity estimates.
•
Resourceful, dedicated managers can often operate their facilities at volumes
beyond their estimated capacities.
•
Poorly designed or indifferently managed facilities will become congested before
their estimated capacity is reached.
•
There is no simple measure of capacity, since railroad traffic is a mix of
commodities and train types moving with different speeds and priorities.
There are no public data on the present or expected usage and performance of the private rail
system. The growth in international intermodal traffic will be the major source of pressure on rail
infrastructure, capacity, and operations. It is generally believed that the expected growth in rail
intermodal service, primarily due to the projections for increased imports at the Ports of Los
Angeles and Long Beach, will fill the existing capacity of both railroads within the LA Basin
sometime before 2025.
Rail Geography
Geography imposes some serious limitations on the ability of the rail network to expand service.
•
Rail lines use mountain passes with steep grades and limited right-of-way.
•
Steep grades and tight curves reduce speeds, limit train lengths, and increase
costs.
•
Narrow right-of-way shared with highways makes it difficult and costly for
railroads to increase capacity.
The railroads have invested in capacity improvements, but are constrained by the geography.
Between the SCAG Region and the rest of North America are a series of mountain passes that
constrain railroad capacity and performance.
•
The UP (former SP) Coast Line has steep grades at Cuesta, near San Luis Obispo.
•
The UP and BNSF lines through the Inland Empire pass through Cajon Pass.
•
The UP line to the southeast passes over Beaumont Hill.
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The Alameda Corridor is a major infrastructure project involving consolidation of rail to and
from the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles onto a 20-mile, high-capacity, grade-separated
right of way following Southern Pacific’s former Alameda line. From the rail perspective, the
Alameda Corridor project will have three basic impacts:
•
consolidating the port rail operations of UP/SP and BNSF on a single line;
•
improving intermodal rail efficiency compared to other modes; and
•
facilitating the growth of on-dock transfer of containers between marine and rail
modes.
Rail Carload Service
Rail carload customers are typically moving low value, bulk commodities. Most carload service
consists of individual freight cars moved together in trains between major markets. These are the
common freight trains whose consist of cars is mixed in both type and commodity and changes
from day to day. Rail unit trains are the most economical form of carload service. Unit trains
handle a large number of railcars moving between a specific origin and destination on a
repetitive round-trip basis (e.g., coal moving from a mine to a power generating plant in a 100car train, or grain moving from country to terminal grain elevators).
The pattern of rail carload traffic to and from the greater Los Angeles area is determined
primarily by inalterable facts of geography (Exhibit 10.
Exhibit 10: Rail Market Geography
The major California, Nevada, and Arizona markets are within 250-500 miles (encompassing
Bakersfield to Tucson). National markets begin at about 1200 miles (Portland and beyond).
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There are no large markets between these two groups. A few smaller markets (Salt Lake City, El
Paso, Albuquerque) are in the 700-900 mile range.
Most rail carload traffic originating in Southern California terminates in nearby states. Almost
60% stays in California. Nearly all Southern California rail carload tonnage is heavy bulk
commodities, industrial products, or inputs to manufacturing. Most SCAG region carload traffic
originates in a small number of scattered industrial districts.
Increased carload rail service would reduce congestion and emissions but has practical limits.
Rail carload is already a low-cost mode for line-haul, but is most effective as a specialized
service for appropriate commodities rather than an all-purpose mode.
•
Local switching is costly, time-consuming, and has higher emissions than linehaul service.
•
Access to direct carload service is a major barrier.
•
Current logistics practices also limit the commercial application of carload
service.
Carload Service Diversion Potential
Carload rail service (as opposed to intermodal service) is best suited to:
•
bulk movements of raw materials (coal, grain, aggregates), or
•
routine movement of industrial products (steel, chemicals, lumber).
Direct carload service requires direct rail access, and is largely limited to major manufacturing
and processing plants such as refineries, auto assembly plants, or power plants. Carload service,
and unit train service in particular, will continue to grow with the customer base of heavy
industrial activity, but is unlikely to attract new customers unless new plants are built with rail
access. The potential for diversion of truckload traffic to direct carload service is therefore very
limited, and rests with the initiatives of the railroads and their customers.
Short-Haul And Short-Line Carload Diversion Potential
Well-designed short-haul rail moves can serve niche markets, especially where they can either
justify a new train move or add incremental traffic to an existing train.
•
There are already many rail movements within California.
•
The 500-1000 mile trip range, however, does not include large new freight
markets outside California (Exhibit 11).
•
Typical short-haul rail carload movements include regional transfers of bulk
materials (e.g. sand and gravel, chemicals), and inter-plant moves as part of a
production process.
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Exhibit 11: Rail Miles From Los Angeles
Rail Miles from Los Angeles
0
San Bernardino
San Diego
Barstow
El Centro
Bakersfield
Needles
LasVegas
Fresno
Phoenix
San Francisco
Oakland
Stockton
Tuscon
Sacramento
Redding
Salt Lake City
El Paso
Albuquerque
Portland
Denver
Seattle
Dallas
Oklahoma City
Houston
Kansas City
New Orleans
St Louis
Chicago
Atlanta
Memphis
500
59
94
140
1000
1500
REGIONAL MARKETS
221
279
308
324
377
425
470
487
498
502
542
714
783
874
889
2000
2500
NATIONAL MARKETS
1188
1353
1370
1460
1490
1641
1776
1966
2032
2227
2285
2306
Source: Rand McNalley
There are three major barriers to expanded short-haul carload service.
•
Local switching moves are relatively costly, especially for large, line-haul
railroads with high labor costs. Such moves also generate significantly higher
emissions than line-haul rail trips.
•
Neither the revenue and profit potential for the railroad nor the cost savings
potential for the customer are likely to justify the high cost of new trackage where
rail sidings do not already exist.
•
The lower revenue and profit potential of short-haul movements also make it
difficult for line-haul railroads to devote scarce track capacity or operating “slots”
to such traffic if longer-haul moves are available.
Short-haul diversion potential is also constrained by rail circuity. Rail routes to regional
boundaries (cordon points) are significantly longer than highway routes in many instances. The
largest potential short-haul market is between the SCAG Region and Northern California, along
the I-5 corridor. The primary rail route to the north (paralleling Interstate 5) is through Cajon
Pass, which is an average of 63 miles longer than the highway route to the regional boundary.
The most important part of the SCAG region is Los Angeles County, for which the circuity adds
over 100 miles on trips to Bakersfield and beyond. Since the distances to Northern California
markets are typically 400-600 miles, the rail route is about 20% longer.
010902 99-130 Ex Summary
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Page 16
The lower-cost operations of short-line and switching railroads such as Pacific Harbor Line or
the Ventura County Railway offer a solution to high switching costs, but also require additional
interchange movements and revenue sharing. Rail-truck transloading offers a way around the
access problem. The allocation of scarce track capacity is a tougher problem, and a major longterm public policy issue.
Short-haul rail service may be applicable to niche markets. The potential for short-line operations
in the SCAG region could include:
•
existing short line operations such as PHL, VCY, and Los Angeles Junction;
•
a few existing branch lines, such as the San Jacinto Branch Line; or
•
service to major new industrial parks and plants.
The long-term potential for greater short-line rail service in the SCAG region is limited.
•
UP and BNSF have largely completed their branch line abandonment and
rationalization programs, and there are few branch lines left that would be suitable
for short-line operations.
•
Railroad branch lines and secondary main lines are attractive candidates for highpriority rail passenger and commuter services such as Metrolink.
Rail Transloading
Rail transloading accomplishes one of the same goals as intermodal transportation: using both
rail and truck modes to their best advantage. Transloading consists of transferring freight
between rail cars (for the line haul) and trucks (for pickup or delivery). Commodities are diverse
but have a common characteristic: the use of efficient handling equipment to transfer between
rail and truck. The commodities generally unload from rail into either storage or onto a truck, but
they can load from truck to railcar for outbound movement. The growth of transloading options
and attendant logistics practices creates additional rail opportunities.
Truck-rail transloading has significant potential to increase the use of rail carload service for
line-haul freight transportation.
•
Truck-rail transloading offers the easiest access to rail carload service.
•
Both major railroads see transloading as a business opportunity and a source of
traffic growth. Sometimes railroads use transloading to compete with other
railroads instead of competing with trucks.
•
Short lines such as PHL have developed transloading programs and facilities to
expand their market.
Transloading is not without its limitations, however:
•
Transloading may be seen as an undesirable land use by local communities.
010902 99-130 Ex Summary
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Page 17
•
Truck-rail transloading requires local/regional pick-up and delivery via truck, and
is adversely affected by regional highway congestion.
•
Truck-rail transloading would reduce long-haul truck traffic on major regional
access routes, but would not reduce the number of local truck trips.
A recent private Southern California study ranked commodities as candidates for transloading.
The criteria included revenue potential, employment potential, and environmental “friendliness.”
The top two commodity choices, consumer goods and foods and beverages, are not often
transloaded without intermediate storage in distribution center inventory. Other candidates such
as paper, building materials, and minerals are commonly transloaded in both private and
commercial facilities.
The potential for conversion of truckload movements to rail carload service lies almost
exclusively in transloading rather than direct carload access. It is estimated that rail/truck
transloading could divert on the order of 132,000 annual long-haul trucks from regional
highways and reduce truck VMT by over 23 million annually at year 2000 traffic levels. This
finding is consistent with the commercial initiatives of both railroads, who have increased their
transloading activity and marketing in recent years.
Transloading would have favorable impacts on truck VMT and emissions.
•
Since transloading converts multiple truckloads in to a smaller number of rail
carloads, the impact on VMT and emissions is potentially greater.
•
Transloading is best conducted through numerous local and regional sites, and
does not exhibit the same economies of scale and service that require large
regional intermodal terminals. The requirement for local pick-up and delivery
truck trips and VMT could therefore be lower.
Since the industrial products typically transloaded are less time-sensitive than intermodal
shipments, railroads have additional flexibility in using their line capacity and operating
windows.
Intermodal Freight Transportation
Intermodal is an attempt to combine the best features of multiple modes, using rail for the linehaul and truck for the pickup and delivery. The basic intermodal units are either trailers or
containers moving inland by rail. The key feature of traditional intermodal moves in trailers or
containers is that the unit stays sealed from door to door. “Intermodal” is sometimes used to
describe passenger movements by multiple modes, but as used in this report refers exclusively to
freight.
The Los Angeles area is a major market for domestic intermodal freight transportation. About a
third of total U.S. rail intermodal traffic originates or terminates in the Los Angeles area. Of that
volume roughly a third is domestic.
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Page 18
Intermodal transportation has significant potential to mitigate congestion on major interregional
access routes.
•
Rail-truck intermodal service offers the easiest transition from over-the-highway
truck transportation.
•
Major truckload, less-than-truckload, and parcel motor carriers already use
intermodal service and see it as a growth area.
•
The SCAG region has excellent intermodal service with adequate near-term
capacity.
Intermodal fills a price/service gap between rail carload and truckload transportation (Exhibit
12).
Exhibit 12: Intermodal Service Comparison
High
Conceptual
Conceptual
Small Package Surface/Air
LTL
Truckload
Price
Intermodal
Rail
Carload
Barge/Coastal
Pipeline
Low
Low
Service (Speed/Reliability/Flexibility)
High
Rail intermodal service requires economical trucking (drayage) to a nearby rail intermodal
terminal. Terminal and drayage costs are intermodal overhead that must be offset by a long,
efficient line-haul trip to be time and cost competitive with over-the-road trucking.
•
Drayage typically costs $50 to $250 on each end of the movement, or $100 to
$500 in total.
•
Terminal costs are typically $30 to $50 at each end, or $60 to $100 per move.
•
Drayage and terminal handling add 8-24 hours of time compared to highway
truckload service.
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Page 19
Intermodal terminals (sometimes still called “piggyback ramps”) transfer trailers and containers
between trains and trucks. The SCAG region is served by the second largest intermodal rail
complex in North America. Exhibit 13 shows the locations of rail intermodal facilities in the
study region.
Exhibit 13: Intermodal Facility Locations
UP LATC
UP
City of
Commerce
BNSF San Bernardino
BNSF Hobart
UP
City of Industry
UP ICTF
(International)
Typical intermodal drayage movements cover a 25-mile radius around the intermodal terminal.
As shown in Exhibit 14, this intermodal reach covers most of the SCAG region around the
terminals.
Exhibit 14: Intermodal Facility Coverage
010902 99-130 Ex Summary
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Los Angeles area rail intermodal terminals originate and receive over 250 intermodal trains
every week supporting the region’s congestion management goals and environmental policy.
Together, these rail intermodal terminals handled approximately 3 million trailers and containers
in 1998.
In order to be cost competitive, intermodal needs a long length of haul at low rail linehaul costs
to spread or amortize those local trucking and terminal costs. The result is a strong competitive
position over about 1000 miles and real cost advantages as the distance grows (Exhibit 15).
Intermodal has very little presence in lanes of less than 750 miles, and almost none under 500
miles. If it is managed effectively, intermodal transportation can be successful at distances of
under 300 miles.
Exhibit 15: Intermodal “Breakeven” Zone
$ Cost
Per Ton
Conceptual
Truckload
Intermodal
Rail Carload
Rail Unit
Train
Breakeven Zone
200
400
600
800
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Distance in Miles
From Southern California, intermodal service is typically competitive for traffic moving to or
from points east of the Rockies (Exhibit 16). The busiest intermodal lane is between Los Angeles
and Chicago, about 1800 miles. Reducing the “breakeven” distance from Southern California
does not gain access to any large new markets, but could be the key to diversion of traffic
between Northern and Southern California along I-5.
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Exhibit 16: Local vs. Intermodal Markets
PNW
PNW
UpperMW
UpperMW
LOCAL
LOCAL
Nev
Cal/
Cal/Nev
MidRockies
MidRockies
Neutral
NeutralEast
East
INTERMODAL
INTERMODAL
SoWest
SoWest
South
South
Rail Intermodal Diversion Potential
Diversion of long-haul truckload and LTL traffic to rail intermodal service could divert on the
order of 107,000 annual trucks and over 13 million VMT annually from regional highways at
year 2000 traffic levels.
The long-haul corridors linking the SCAG region with the rest of the nation are already among
the most successful and busiest intermodal routes, with higher intermodal market shares than the
national average.
•
The SCAG region already has some of the nation's busiest intermodal facilities.
The expected growth in rail intermodal traffic generated at San Pedro Bay ports
will tax both intermodal terminals and line-haul capacity on both railroads.
•
Both railroads, and their predecessors, have encouraged diversion of Southern
California truck traffic to intermodal. There is a significant history of marketing
and service initiatives aimed at increasing intermodal market shares in Southern
California.
•
Truckload and LTL motor carriers already use intermodal transportation to an
appreciable extent to serve Southern California.
•
Given the large expected increase in high-revenue, long-haul international
intermodal traffic (imports and exports), railroads will be disinclined to dedicate
or add capacity for low-revenue, short-haul intermodal business.
While both railroads continue to pursue greater domestic intermodal market share, it would be
overly optimistic to expect dramatic increases. Intermodal service requires local/regional pick-up
010902 99-130 Ex Summary
THE T IOGA GROUP
Page 22
and delivery via truck (drayage), and is thus adversely affected by regional highway congestion.
Diversion of freight to intermodal service would reduce long-haul truck traffic on major regional
access routes, but would not reduce local trips.
Congestion Implications for Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal transportation requires drayage for pick-up and delivery. Where drayage moves travel
the same urban freeways as the truck trips they might replace, there is little net saving in either
truck trips or emissions. The major Los Angeles intermodal facilities are centrally located, as
shown in Exhibit 17. While this maximizes their market coverage and concentrates traffic
volume, it also requires drayage trips over some of the most congested regional routes.
Exhibit 17: Central Intermodal Terminal Locations
Creating a series of intermodal facilities in outlying areas might disperse and shorten the drayage
trips. The current BNSF and proposed UP facilities in the Inland Empire are examples. A
balance must be struck, however, between the advantages of dispersed intermodal terminals and
the need to assemble sufficient volume for frequent service.
The “congestion taper” limits the benefits of intermodal diversions. Truck and auto traffic
volumes on regional highways are heaviest near the regions center and “taper” towards the
edges, as illustrated in Exhibit 18.
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Page 23
Exhibit 18: Truck Congestion Taper
Example of Truck Volume “Taper” on I-10
28,000/day
at Fontana
14,000/day
at Beaumont
3,000/day at Blythe
The majority of the truck VMT saved through diversion to intermodal would be in the outlying
areas, since the intermodal option still requires drayage in the central regions.
Potential Modal Diversions
Diversion estimates were based on length of haul and commodity modal shares. Existing modal
shares were used to gauge the probability of diversion in each mileage block.
Length of haul
A truck mileage matrix was developed for internal and external trip “centroids”. Survey data on
intermodal preferences were used to assign divertability indices to distance categories. Length of
haul and commodity indices were combined to estimate diversion percentages by regional pair,
commodity, and mode. Truck mileage distance for each diverted trip was estimated as the
distance from the centroid of each internal region to each external cordon. Employment
centroids (Exhibit 19), rather than geographic centroids, were used to better estimate distances
from truck-generating activities.
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Page 24
Exhibit 19: Internal Trip Centroids
External regions were assigned representative city “centroids”, shown in Exhibit 20.
Exhibit 20: External Trip Centroids
Average distances from rail facilities to cordons were also calculated for each internal region.
Distances were based on existing nearby rail facilities for each internal region. Mileages and
driving times were estimated for each combination.
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THE T IOGA GROUP
Page 25
Previous study results were used to create a divertability index by mileage block. Intermodal
“users” rated intermodal service higher than non-users in each mileage block. Intermodal users
also gave higher market shares to intermodal than the overall average.
Commodity modal shares
Major heavy-duty truck (HDT) commodities were identified, and US and SCAG region modal
shares were compared to create indices for rail and intermodal shares. A sample of the modal
shares is shown in Exhibit 21. The 19 major HDT commodities over 500,000 tons each were
assessed for rail and intermodal divertability. In the absence of the vast resources necessary to
examine even a majority of the individual flows, and acknowledging the fragmentary nature of
the available data, the study team constructed a series of divertability indexes as proxies. A
comparison of Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) national modal shares and estimated SCAG
modal shares was used as a divertability index.
Exhibit 21: Example of Modal Commodity Shares
20 - Food & Kindred Products
100%
90%
80%
78%
84%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
20%
15%
10%
0%
1%
SCAG
Truck
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
1%
CFS IM
•
Where national (CFS) rail or intermodal shares were higher than SCAG region
shares, it was assumed – other things being equal – that there existed the potential
for further diversions of SCAG region flows.
•
Where national rail or intermodal shares were lower, it was assumed – other
things being equal – that the potential for further diversions in the SCAG region
was small.
Separate indexes were compiled for:
010902 99-130 Ex Summary
THE T IOGA GROUP
Page 26
•
Truckload to intermodal;
•
LTL to intermodal; and
•
TL to rail/transload.
The commodity-specific indexes were combined with the mileage-based indexes to yield a
consolidated index of divertability that roughly reflected both commodity and geographic
variables.
Year 2000 Annual Intermodal Diversion Estimates
The study team developed an order-of-magnitude estimate for the potential year 2000 diversion
from trucks to intermodal transportation (Exhibit 22) using the methodology described earlier.
The potential diversion could be on the order of 1.6 million annual tons, the equivalent of
roughly 72,000 annual truckloads.
The largest potential diversions were found in the I-5 corridor, which is by far the most heavily
traveled truck route. Realizing these potential diversions would require successful intermodal
service to Northern California – a relatively short haul – and to the Pacific Northwest.
Exhibit 22: Intermodal Diversion Estimates
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
539,956
272,211
26,790
68,769
56,334
22,983
13,012
1,000,056
Annual Tons Diverted by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
1,620
254,399
99,115
38,760
643
67,028
22,959
8,306
36
11,426
7,295
1,749
127
16,984
7,501
2,961
119
20,794
12,500
3,116
24
8,624
4,375
1,204
147
13,574
3,168
1,165
2,717
392,829
156,913
57,260
Totals
933,850
371,146
47,296
96,343
92,863
37,211
31,066
1,609,774
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
24,201
10,765
1,156
3,255
2,433
988
607
43,406
Annual Trucks Diverted by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
61
11,846
4,491
1,905
23
3,245
1,145
419
1
545
370
84
5
840
375
153
4
994
573
157
1
405
199
59
5
628
150
51
100
18,501
7,303
2,828
Totals
42,503
15,597
2,156
4,629
4,162
1,651
1,441
72,139
The potential intermodal diversions would be the rough equivalent of 230 trucks per day, more
than half of which would come from Interstate 5. While this sounds like a significant body of
traffic, in fact the reduction in truck traffic on major freeways would be relatively small.
010902 99-130 Ex Summary
THE T IOGA GROUP
Page 27
Year 2000 Annual Rail Transload Diversion Estimates
The study team estimated potential rail carload diversions through transloading (Exhibit 23) at
almost 2 million tons annually, or the equivalent of almost 90,000 truckloads. Again, the largest
diversions would come in the I-5 corridor, where UP and its predecessor SP have both
undertaken carload service initiatives designed to encourage such diversions. The estimated,
order-of-magnitude rail/transload diversions would be the equivalent of about 287 daily trucks.
Exhibit 23: Rail Transload Diversion Estimates
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
474,183
207,887
29,523
72,539
61,160
21,057
13,569
879,918
SR14
265
91
6
22
21
3
24
432
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
21,424
8,344
1,293
3,559
2,741
941
655
38,956
SR14
10
3
0
1
1
0
1
16
Annual Tons Diverted by Cordon Point
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
Totals
214,248
424,797
61,829
1,175,322
47,217
84,067
17,701
356,962
11,867
41,633
2,316
85,345
129,299
18,961
33,362
4,415
143,451
20,368
57,365
4,538
51,292
7,938
20,455
1,838
39,107
8,915
14,921
1,677
329,513
676,600
94,314
1,980,778
Annual Trucks Diverted by Cordon Point
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
9,968
19,054
2,948
2,233
3,841
854
575
2,101
112
944
1,565
226
967
2,606
224
376
934
91
413
689
75
15,476
30,789
4,530
Totals
53,403
15,276
4,081
6,295
6,538
2,341
1,833
89,767
Year 2000 Annual Combined Diversion Estimates
The combined intermodal and rail transload diversions (Exhibit 24) could reach roughly 3.6
million tons at year 2000 traffic levels, or the annual equivalent of about 162,000 trucks.
010902 99-130 Ex Summary
THE T IOGA GROUP
Page 28
Exhibit 24: Combined Diversion Estimates
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
1,014,139
480,097
56,313
141,308
117,494
44,041
26,581
1,879,974
Annual Tons Diverted by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
1,885
468,647
523,912
100,589
734
114,244
107,026
26,007
42
23,293
48,928
4,064
149
35,945
40,863
7,376
140
41,162
69,865
7,653
27
16,562
24,830
3,042
171
22,489
18,089
2,842
3,149
722,342
833,513
151,574
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
45,624
19,109
2,448
6,814
5,174
1,929
1,262
82,362
Annual Trucks Diverted by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
71
21,814
23,545
4,853
27
5,478
4,986
1,273
2
1,120
2,471
196
6
1,784
1,940
379
5
1,960
3,179
382
1
780
1,133
149
6
1,041
839
126
117
33,977
38,092
7,358
Totals
2,109,173
728,108
132,641
225,641
236,314
88,502
70,173
3,590,552
Totals
95,907
30,873
6,237
10,923
10,700
3,993
3,274
161,906
VMT and Emissions Impacts
Methodology
The diverted truck VMT and added ton-miles for rail and intermodal shipments were used to
estimate changes in vehicle emissions and fuel consumption. Distances were checked for all the
combinations of SCAG region centroid and regional cordon point for both truck (freeway) and
rail routes. As shown in Exhibit 25, virtually all the rail distances are longer than the truck
distances. (The exceptions are mostly due to UP’s Saugus line, which is little used and would
carry few diverted moves.)
Exhibit 25: Cordon Point Distances
Truck and Rail Cordon Point Distances (Miles)
Los Angeles Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
Orange Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
I-5 North
Truck Rail
71 196
75 272
129 149
107 228
115 138
103
99
254 215
SR14
Truck Rail
81
78
95
96
107 145
118 110
92
86
107 153
157 163
I-15 North
Truck Rail
243 283
278 360
204 236
227 315
194 225
103 159
254 302
I-10
Truck Rail
253 247
299 324
201 200
248 279
200 189
224 293
125 112
I-40
Truck Rail
273
255
322
331
249
208
272
287
238
197
127
149
201
274
The difference is most apparent in the Los Angeles/I-5 North combination, which also accounts
for the largest single body of diverted traffic. There, the railroads must take 196-mile (average)
010902 99-130 Ex Summary
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Page 29
routes out through San Bernardino and Cajon Pass to reach a common point at Mojave, while
trucks climb I-5 over Tejon Pass to reach Gorman in just 71 miles.
The longer rail routes require more ton-miles to achieve the same transportation purpose, and
raise the rail and intermodal emissions estimates accordingly. For example, a San Bernardino Co.
to I-10 Region transloading diversion to rail would save 189 truck miles but incur 200 rail miles,
a net increase in ton-miles. This increase must be offset by significantly lower units emissions
from rail service. Most of the truck VMT saved would be on the less congested portions of I-10
to the east.
Rail Transloading VMT Impacts
VMT reductions were estimated for each combination of SCAG region segment and external
region (Exhibit 26). Each mileage calculation extended only to the regional cordon point.
Exhibit 26: Rail Transloading VMT Impacts
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
2,244,465
1,482,926
147,617
623,832
468,892
210,013
171,788
5,349,534
Annual Truck VMT Reduction by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
1,432
3,470,820
7,164,909 1,125,296
711
714,545
1,389,908
320,978
39
219,931
829,882
49,713
156
257,870
447,056
73,282
127
263,428
764,866
71,999
23
54,399
305,327
15,538
251
150,961
124,343
22,474
2,740
5,131,954
11,026,290 1,679,280
Totals
14,006,923
3,909,069
1,247,181
1,402,196
1,569,312
585,300
469,817
23,189,798
Since the high-volume I-5 corridor also has a shorter cordon distance (e.g. 71 miles from LA
Co.) than the I-15, I-10, or I-40 corridors (ranging from 243 to 273 miles from LA Co.), the
VMT estimates are not as heavily weighted toward I-5 as the truck counts or tonnage estimates.
Intermodal VMT Impacts
The intermodal VMT impacts (Exhibit 27) were adjusted for drayage requirements.
Exhibit 27: Intermodal VMT Impacts
SCAG Region
I-5 North
Los Angeles Co.
1,979,840
Orange Co.
1,446,346
Ventura Co.
20,717
Riverside Co.
481,385
San Bernardino Co.
394,339
Victor Valley
194,746
Coachella Valley
101,494
Total
4,618,867
* Adjusted for drayage requirements
Annual Net* Truck VMT Reduction by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
7,031
3,849,902
1,566,018
664,086
3,865
892,360
337,802
135,498
77
163,472
114,586
30,147
702
203,803
88,511
44,420
656
249,525
147,499
46,736
135
46,168
58,737
8,373
830
163,886
11,004
9,945
13,296
5,569,118
2,324,158
939,205
Totals
8,066,877
2,815,871
329,000
818,821
838,755
308,159
287,159
13,464,643
Combined VMT Impacts
The combined rail transloading/carload and intermodal VMT impacts are shown in Exhibit 28.
010902 99-130 Ex Summary
THE T IOGA GROUP
Page 30
Exhibit 28: Combined VMT Impacts
SCAG Region
I-5 North
Los Angeles Co.
4,224,306
Orange Co.
2,929,272
Ventura Co.
168,335
Riverside Co.
1,105,217
San Bernardino Co.
863,231
Victor Valley
404,759
Coachella Valley
273,281
Total
9,968,401
* Adjusted for drayage requirements
Annual Net* Truck VMT Reduction by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
8,463
4,576
116
858
783
158
1,081
16,036
7,320,723
1,606,906
383,403
461,674
512,953
100,567
314,847
10,701,072
8,730,928
1,727,710
944,468
535,566
912,366
364,063
135,347
13,350,448
1,789,382
456,476
79,860
117,702
118,735
23,911
32,420
2,618,485
Totals
22,073,800
6,724,940
1,576,181
2,221,017
2,408,067
893,459
756,976
36,654,441
Combined Emissions Impacts
The combined rail carload and intermodal diversion VMT and ton-mile changes were used to
estimate the net change in comparable emissions factors. Note that not all of the factors listed
could be estimated for both modes from the available literature.
•
Over-the-road (OTR) truck emissions vary with driving conditions.
•
Line-haul rail emissions are generally much lower than OTR truck, but intermodal
NOx emissions are higher.
•
The longer rail hauls noted earlier reduce rail’s emissions advantage.
Exhibit 29: Combined Emissions Impacts
Truck
Reduction
ROG
CO
NOx
CO2
PM10/PM
HC
93,702
434,817
1,496,531
169,567
64,529
na
1999/2000 Emissions Impacts
Rail
Drayage
Rail IM
Carload
Increase
Increase
Increase
4,930
22,875
78,731
8,921
3,395
na
na
77,892
1,058,154
na
27,189
30,128
na
71,756
994,058
na
25,832
28,702
Net
Change
na
(262,294)
634,412
na
(8,113)
na
The factors located and used for this study, when applied to the diversion estimates, indicate a
net decrease in CO and PM10/PM emissions, but higher NOx emissions.
010902 99-130 Ex Summary
THE T IOGA GROUP
Page 31
Chapter I – Introduction
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
1
Chapter 1 - Introduction
Project Overview: Purpose
•
Determine the potential for movement of freight by train.
•
Ascertain the impact of potential new truck lanes on the transport of goods by rail.
•
Determine whether truck or rail infrastructure and operational improvements will influence future rail and
truck volumes.
•
Examine the potential for shorter range freight movements.
•
Establish the energy and environmental impacts within the region for trains and trucks under base case and
planned improvement scenarios.
•
Provide guidance to policy makers on investments in truck and rail facilities.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
2
Chapter 1 - Introduction
Project Overview: Original Scope
Exhibit 1: Project Flow Chart
Task
Task 1:
1: On-going
On-going Coordination
Coordination
Task
Task 2:
2: Basic
Basic
Parameters
Parameters
Task
Task 9:
9: Energy,
Energy,
Environmental,
Environmental,
&
& Economic
Economic
Impacts
Impacts
Task
Task 3:
3: Energy
Energy &
&
Environmental
Environmental
Tradeoffs
Tradeoffs
Task
Task 4:
4: Regional
Regional
Shipments
Shipments
Task
Task 5:
5: Network
Network
Comparisons
Comparisons
Task
Task 7:
7: Short-haul
Short-haul
Feasibility
Feasibility
Task
Task 6:
6:
Improvements
Improvements
and
and
Impacts
Impacts
Task 11:
Final
Report
Task
Task 8:
8:
Changes
Changes
in
in
Volume
Volume
Task
Task 10:
10: North
North
LA
LA Co.
Co. Service
Service
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
3
Chapter 1 - Introduction
Project Overview: Revised Scope
Exhibit 2: Revised Project Flow Chart
Task
Task 1:
1: On-going
On-going Coordination
Coordination
Task
Task 2:
2: Basic
Basic
Parameters
Parameters
Task
Task 9:
9: Energy
Energy
&
& Environmental
Environmental
Impacts
Impacts
Task
Task 3:
3: Energy
Energy &
&
Environmental
Environmental
Tradeoffs
Tradeoffs
Task
Task 4:
4: Regional
Regional
Shipments
Shipments
Task
Task 5:
5: Network
Network
Comparisons
Comparisons
Task
Task 7:
7: Short-haul
Short-haul
Feasibility
Feasibility
Task
Task 6:
6:
Improvements
Improvements
and
and
Impacts
Impacts
Task 11:
Final
Report
Task
Task 8:
8:
Changes
Changes
in
in
Volume
Volume
Task
Task 10
10 Deleted
Deleted
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
4
Chapter 1 - Introduction
Modal focus: Truck, Rail, and Intermodal
This study is focused on truck, rail, and intermodal freight transportation
§ Truck, Rail, and Marine are “surface” modes and carry the vast majority of freight of concern to the
general public.
§ Intermodal, in this study, includes rail/truck movements and the rail and truck portions of
marine/rail/truck movements.
§ Air carriers primarily handle high-priority, lightweight, or valuable freight in express or air cargo
service, and are not analyzed.
§ Pipelines handle liquid commodities in bulk, mostly petroleum and petroleum products, and are also
not analyzed.
§ Marine carriers handle waterborne shipments, and are only mentioned in connection with rail and
truck modes.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
5
Chapter II – Freight Transportation Overview
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
6
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Freight transportation is a major U.S. and worldwide industry
•
Worldwide, industrialized and developing nations depend on efficient freight transportation for internal
distribution of goods and for growing trade with the rest of the world. Efficient transportation is a critical
ingredient in globalization of the world’s economy.
§ An estimated 10% of the working population is involved in ordering, handling, and moving freight
shipments.
§ Total 1998 freight transportation revenues were about $524 billion.
§ Freight transportation accounted for the equivalent of 6.2% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in
1998.
•
Efficient freight transportation is critical to a healthy economy
§ Freight transportation typically accounts for 12-15% of the value of finished products
§ Manufacturers and other shippers rely on efficient freight transportation to obtain raw materials and to
compete in distant markets
§ Wholesalers, retailers, and other receivers need efficient freight transportation to obtain and distribute
goods economically, on time, and in proper condition
§ Consumers rely on efficient freight transportation for everything from the necessities of life to the
purest luxuries
§ The SCAG Region needs an efficient freight transportation system to compete in North American and
global markets
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
7
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Freight Transportation demand is derived
•
Demand for freight transportation is derived from the requirement of shippers and receivers to move goods
from where they are to where they are needed
§ No one buys or supplies freight transportation except to fulfill a definite need
§ Those who supply freight transportation cannot create a demand for it
§ Those who demand freight transportation define their requirements for speed, reliability, cost, and
other characteristics.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
8
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Freight transportation participants
•
The direct customer of a freight carrier may be a shipper, a consignee, a beneficial owner, an intermediary,
or even another carrier.
§ Shippers (typically manufacturers or other producers and distributors) prepare freight for transport
and originate the movement.
§ Consignees or receivers (typically customers of the shippers) receive the freight at the destination.
§ The shipper or receiver may or may not actually own the goods. The party who owns the goods being
shipped is the beneficial owner.
§ Carriers (transportation service providers) are firms that move freight by one or more mode.
§ Fleet operators operate (and may also own and maintain) the vehicles (usually trucks) used to move
freight.
§ Fleet operators include both commercial carriers (who transport freight for customers as their primary
business) and private operators (who transport their own freight, usually for final delivery to
customers).
§ Intermediaries or third parties (including freight forwarders, shipper’s agents, and brokers) arrange
transportation on behalf of shippers or receivers.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
9
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Freight transportation modes
•
Freight transportation is often categorized by mode:
§ Truck (motor carriers or truckers)
§ Rail (railroads)
§ Marine (ocean or inland waterway)
§ Air (airlines)
§ Pipeline (private or commercial pipelines)
§ Intermodal (using more than one of these modes)
•
This study is focused on truck, rail, and intermodal freight transportation
§ Truck, Rail, and Marine are “surface” modes and carry the vast majority of freight of concern to the
general public.
§ Intermodal, in this study, includes rail/truck movements and the rail and truck portions of
marine/rail/truck movements.
§ Air carriers primarily handle high-priority, lightweight, or valuable freight in express or air cargo
service, and are not analyzed.
§ Pipelines handle liquid commodities in bulk, mostly petroleum and petroleum products, and are also
not analyzed.
§ Marine carriers handle waterborne shipments, and are only mentioned in connection with rail and
truck modes.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
10
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
The surface modes have very different industry characteristics
Exhibit 3: Surface Transport Modes
Industry
Concentration
Size of
Largest
Companies
(Billions)
Typical
Market Area
Economic
Regulation
$10
ModerateIncreasing
$2
National
Deregulated
Rail Carload
$29
High
$5
Regional
Partially
Deregulated
Trucking
$480
Estimated
1997 Size
(Billions)
Intermodal
Mode
Truckload
$200 Low-Increasing
$2.7
LTL & Parcel
$20
High
$2.5
Local Trucking
$140
Very Low
$0.1
Private Trucking
$120
Very Low
$0.4
High
$0.5
Domestic Water
$8
National,
Regional
National,
Regional
Local
Local,
Regional
Coastal/Lake
Deregulated
Deregulated
Deregulated
Unregulated
Mixed
Source: Transportation in America 1998; The Tioga Group
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
11
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Domestic Intercity Ton Miles 1998
•
•
•
The Eno Foundation recently reported that in 1998, truck ton-miles advanced 1.1% from 1997 and
45% from 1989.
Since trucks typically handle low weight, higher value manufactured goods over shorter distances
than rail, trucking’s share of ton-miles are much lower than its percentages for revenue, tonnage and
value of shipments.
According to Commodity Flow survey in 1997. The average length of haul for all trucks was 144 miles
compared with 769 for railroads.
Pipeline
17%
Air
0%
Water
13%
Rail
41%
Truck
29%
Exhibit 4: Domestic Ton-Miles
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
12
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
How does the customer decide between modes?
Supply chain decision: match characteristics with
need
Interplant shipments or Customer Delivery
inbound raw material: multiple modes, ship,
rail, pipeline, truck to factory
Manufacturing to Distribution Centers - o/b
truck and rail
DC to stores - o/b truck and LTL
Air and small package - alternatives for small
or urgent shipments unanticipated
Transit time
Next day delivery
Line shut down loads
Inventory shortage or Stock out situations
End of month sales promotion
Volume purchase
Inventory replenishment movement or Just In
Time
Return merchandise or reverse logistics
Product Characteristics
Bulk vs. packaged
Liquid
Refrigerated
Fragility, packing requirements
Value of product
Control
When your job is dependant upon the
movement of goods
Single accountability
Clear claims responsibility
High visibility,
Type of communication often available
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
13
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Large-scale Influences on Modal Choice
Near Term –
Change in Years
Long Term –
Change in Decades
Changing modal characteristics – cost factors,
service type & quality, reliability.
Geography – size, location, and distances between
major freight markets and sources.
Access – rail access, freeway access, intermodal
ramps, transload points.
Commodity mix – regional production and
consumption patterns and balance.
Logistics practices – shipment size, inventory
preferences, sourcing, distribution patterns.
Goods in transit – the SCAG region's role as an
international gateway and physical distribution center.
Basic modal characteristics – technology, vehicle
type, freight capabilities.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
14
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Regulation and Competition
•
The freight transportation industry is largely deregulated and highly competitive
§ For most of the 20th century, freight transportation was under close federal regulation.
§ Beginning in 1980 Congress dramatically reduced economic regulation of freight transportation
in the U.S.
§ Freed from the restraints of regulation, transportation service providers have competed
vigorously to improve efficiency.
§ Shippers attempt to maximize their choices and to select the best mode or combination of
modes for each shipment.
§ Shippers can easily switch between individual service providers, and do so regularly.
•
Increased competition has encouraged innovation and emergence of new, more efficient transportation
service providers
§ Many firms could not compete under the increased competition that resulted from deregulation
§ Over time however, competitive pressure has resulted in the emergence of new, efficient, and more
specialized transportation service providers
§ These firms are often categorized as follows:
• Asset-based Service Providers are those who own vehicles, terminals, and other physical
assets
• Non-asset-based Service Providers are those who own few if any physical assets; they typically
broker or sub-contract vehicle and terminal operations and emphasize managerial assistance
• Mixed Service Providers may own some assets but contract for services in other areas
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
15
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Shipment Value by Mode
•
Every five years the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the U. S. Census Bureau team up to conduct
the Commodity Flow Survey. The 1999 edition of “Trends” reported preliminary data from the 1997
Commodity Flow Survey.
•
Trucking hauled nearly $5 trillion worth of merchandise , an increase of 13.1% from 1993
Exhibit 5: Shipment Value by Mode
Mode
Value
Percent
Parcel, USPS Courier
$ 855,897
12.3%
Private Truck
$2,036,528
29.3%
For- Hire Truck
$2,901,345
41.8%
Air
$ 229,062
3.3%
Rail
$ 319,629
4.6%
Pipeline
$ 113,497
1.6%
Water
$ 75,840
1.1%
Truck and Rail
$ 75,695
1.1%
Other unknown modes
$ 6,943,988
4.0%
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
16
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Freight Data Issues
•
There is no single public source of consolidated, detailed freight data across multiple modes
§ Data in the possession of individual carriers and customers are confidential, and virtually impossible
to acquire or assemble for the region as a whole.
§ Preliminary Caltrans ITMS data are just now becoming available, with freight modules to be officially
released in November 2002
•
Accordingly, the project team acquired and complied the following sources:
§ 1999 Carload Waybill Sample (rail)
§ 1997 Commodity Flow Survey (all modes)
§ 2000 (base year) SCAG Heavy Duty Truck Model
•
These data sources do not match in the details of methodology, coverage, definitions, or classification. The
analysis conducted for this project is intended, therefore, to inform and support broad policy decisions.
Application of policy to individual movements or flows would require additional, more complete data, and
can only be used for overall volumes and trends
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
17
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Southern California Outbound Freight Destinations
•
80% of the tonnage originating in Southern California stays within the region.
•
90% of the tonnage originating in Southern California stays within the state.
•
Interstate traffic from Southern California is concentrated in a few Western states.
Exhibit 6: Outbound Shipments
1997 S. Calif Outbound Shipments
State
Tons (000)
California
Arizona
Texas
Nevada
Washington
All Others
Total
326,647
7,289
4,767
4,317
2,687
16,205
362,517
Tons %
90%
2%
1%
1%
1%
4%
100%
Source: 1997 CFS
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
18
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Southern California Inbound Freight Origins
•
77% of the tonnage received in Southern California comes from within the region.
•
83% of the tonnage received in Southern California comes from within the state.
•
Interstate traffic to Southern California mostly originates in a few Western states.
Exhibit 7: Inbound Shipments
1997 S. Calif Inbound Shipments
State
California
Texas
Utah
Washington
Oregon
All Others
Total
Tons (000)
315,420
10,276
7,259
5,590
3,903
34,529
379,430
Tons %
83%
3%
2%
1%
1%
9%
100%
Source: 1997 CFS
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
19
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Major Commodities Shipped
•
Major commodities shipped from Southern California include petroleum and petrochemicals, minerals,
metals & machinery, etc.
•
The largest rail tonnage shares are in metals & machinery, grain products, and chemicals.
Exhibit 8: Major Commodities
Commodity Group
Coal and petroleum products
Stone, Nonmetallic minerals, and metallic ores
Base metal and machinery
Grains, alcohol, and tobacco products
Furniture and miscellaneous manufactured products
Wood products, and textiles and leather
Agricultural products and fish
Pharmaceutical and chemical products
Electronics, motorized vehicles, and precision instruments
Total
THE TIOGA GROUP
Tons
(000)
111,922
73,906
50,420
32,992
32,736
23,844
18,977
9,460
5,658
362,517
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Truck
Share
55%
99%
89%
97%
83%
92%
96%
89%
81%
81%
Rail
Share
0%
0%
2%
2%
0%
1%
1%
3%
2%
1%
Other
Share
44%
1%
9%
1%
17%
7%
4%
7%
17%
19%
20
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Southern California Freight Value by Mode
Trucks carry the higher-value freight.
Intermodal can also compete for valuable freight.
Exhibit 9: Outbound Shipment Value
1997 Shipments from Southern California:
Average Value per Ton by Mode
$1,200
$1,000
$995
$767
$800
$600
$400
$200
$Truck*
Source: 1997 CFS
THE TIOGA GROUP
Rail
* For-hire & private
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
21
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Southern California Length of Haul by Mode
Trucking is a regional & local business, with a short average length of haul.
Rail and intermodal are primarily long-haul modes.
Exhibit 10: Outbound Length of Haul
1997 Shipments from Southern California:
Average Length of Haul by Mode
2,369
2,500
2,000
1,525
1,500
1,167
1,000
500
288
Truck*
Source: 1997 CFS
THE TIOGA GROUP
Rail
Parcel
Multiple Modes
* For-Hire & Private
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
22
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Southern California Modal Length of Haul Distribution
Over 75% of the truck tonnage moves less than 50 miles.
Rail movements include both short and long hauls.
Exhibit 11: Length of Haul Distribution
1997 Southern California Shipments: Modal LOH Distribution
(some rail data were estimated)
90%
80%
Truck*
Rail
Share of Tons
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
<50
Source: 1997 CFS
THE TIOGA GROUP
50 to 99
100 to
249
250 to
499
500 to
749
750 to
999
1000 to
1499
Length of Haul - Miles
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
1500 to
1999
2000+
* For-hire & Private
23
Chapter 2 – Freight Transportation Overview
Southern California Modal Shares
Exhibit 12: Southern California Modal Shares
1997 Shipments from S. California (Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange Co.)
Tons
(000)
Mode
Truck
Rail
Parcel, US Postal Service or courier
Other multiple modes
All Other
Total
Source: 1997 CFS
Tons %
294,502
2,904
1,887
984
62,240
362,517
Ton-miles (mil) Ton-miles %
81%
1%
1%
0%
17%
100%
38,437
2,628
2,473
1,968
15,096
60,602
Avg.
miles
63%
4%
4%
3%
25%
100%
288
1,525
1,167
2,369
NA
NA
1997 Shipments to S. California (Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange Co.)
Tons
(000)
Mode
Truck
Rail
Parcel, US Postal Service or courier
Other multiple modes
All Other
Total
Source: 1997 CFS
THE TIOGA GROUP
285,952
24,058
1,075
6,923
61,422
379,430
Tons %
75%
6%
0%
2%
16%
100%
Ton-miles Ton-miles
(mil)
%
57,462
35,837
1,108
19,647
12,066
126,121
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
46%
28%
1%
16%
10%
100%
Avg.
miles
221
1,756
1,235
2,183
NA
740
24
Chapter III – Truck Transportation
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
25
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Truck Transportation Overview
•
In 1998, Trucking was a $486.1 billion industry, accounting for 86.5% of the nation’s freight bill. This
includes both for-hire and private carriage
§ Trucks transported 7.7 billion tons of freight in 1998 (including primary and secondary movements).
This accounts for 63% of all freight moved in the United States
§ Trucking industry represented 5% of US GDP in 1990
Ford’s
Ford’s first
first Trucks
Trucks 1905
1905
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
26
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
When do shippers use trucks?
Trucking is the “default” mode
Pre-bundled truck delivery in terms of sale
Lack of knowledge regarding complex
alternatives
Risk seen in alternatives
Shortage of management time and resources
to explore choices
Truck Freight Characteristics match most
commodities
Low density
Service sensitive
Highly fragmented
High Value
“If
“If you
you got
got it,
it, aa truck
truck brought
brought it”
it”
Farm
Consumer
Manufacturer
Distribution Center
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Retail Outlet
27
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Trucking Dominance
By any measure, trucking is the dominant freight mode
Exhibit 13: Trucking Freight Dominance
Truck Is the Largest Mode by
Tonnage
(Millions of Tons)
Pipeline
10%
Air
0%
Trucking is the Largest Mode by Revenue
(Billions of Dollars)
PipelineAir
Water 3% 2%
1%
Rail
16%
Intermodal
1%
Water
10%
Rail
6%
Intermodal
1%
Truck
63%
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Truck
87%
28
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Mode Participation by Freight Type
•
Trucks have captured tremendous market share because of their flexibility and access to industrial
manufacturers and commercial marketplaces.
•
This ability to handle general freight as well as bulk freight will allow trucks to continue to dominate the
transportation market.
Exhibit 14: Modal Participation by Freight Type
Mode
Volume
General
Bulk
(MM tons)
Freight
Freight
Truck
7688.7
44.71%
55.29%
Rail
1924.6
31.14%
68.86%
Intermodal
148.9
92.29%
7.71%
Air
18
99.5%
.5%
Water
1187.2
13.57%
86.43%
Pipeline
1188.3
0%
100.00%
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
29
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Shipment Value by Mode
•
Every five years the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the U. S. Census Bureau team up to conduct
the Commodity Flow Survey. The 1999 edition of “Trends” reported preliminary data from the 1997
Commodity Flow Survey.
•
Trucking hauled nearly $5 trillion worth of merchandise , an increase of 13.1% from 1993
Exhibit 15: US Shipment Value by Mode
Mode
Value
Percent
Parcel, USPS Courier
$ 855,897
12.3%
Private Truck
$2,036,528
29.3%
For- Hire Truck
$2,901,345
41.8%
Air
$ 229,062
3.3%
Rail
$ 319,629
4.6%
Pipeline
$ 113,497
1.6%
Water
$ 75,840
1.1%
Truck and Rail
$ 75,695
1.1%
$ 6,943,988
4.0%
Other unknown modes
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
30
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Truckload and Less-than-truckload “dry” carriers
•
Over-the-Road (OTR) trucking includes two major kinds of service relevant to this study:
•
Truckload service (TL) – For-hire or private units moved as a single shipment directly between origin
shipper and consignee.
§ Dry van
§ Tank, flatbed, refrigerated, bulk, etc.
•
Less-Than-Truckload service (LTL) and Parcel Service Long-haul trucks move multiple shipment between
terminals with local pickup and delivery by smaller trucks.
.
Exhibit 16: Trucking Industry Segments
Hshd Bulk Reefer
Tank 5% 2%
7% Other
6%
9%
Truckload
29%
LTL
42%
Trucking Industry Segments 1997
Distribution of Carrier Revenues
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
31
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Trucking Length of Haul Distribution
•
•
Exhibit 17: California Trucking Length of Haul
For-hire and private
trucking are concentrated
in the shortest hauls.
1997 California Shipments: Truck LOH Distribution
Parcel & postal service
movements include long
hauls as well.
90%
The “middle ground” is
mostly empty due to
spare markets.
70%
80%
Share of Tons
•
For-Hire Truck
Private Truck
60%
Parcel & USPS
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
<50
Source: 1997 CFS
THE TIOGA GROUP
50 to 99
100 to
249
250 to
499
500 to
749
750 to
999
1000 to
1499
1500 to
1999
2000+
Length of Haul - Miles
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
32
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Trucking is Integral to the Global Supply Chain
•
Trucks have evolved as one of the most critical links in our economy, connecting shippers with
manufactures and manufacturers with customers.
§ The speed and flexibility of the global distribution system is heavily dependant upon trucks.They are
essential to the flow of goods and the reduction of inventories.
§ Trucking employs 9.7 million people. One in every 13 people is involved in a trucking company.
•
Trucking provides the connections between larger more inflexible infrastructure:
§ Shippers and the railroad
§ Rail connections between carriers (Chicago, Memphis, New Orleans)
§ Rail and Port terminals
§ Rail and distribution centers or manufacturers
•
Trucking shuttle service to inland container facilities provides an extended market reach for Ports and
steamship companies.
§ Eastern ports have established off site terminals to meet the needs of a global economy
§ Trucking provides seamless connection between inland industries and water transportation.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
33
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Trucking is Critical to North American Transportation
This chart shows the value of surface trade between the US and Mexico and Canada by mode.
•
Trucks haul 86% of the shipment values into Mexico
•
Trucks haul 81% of the shipment values out of Mexico’
•
Trucks haul 83% of the shipment values into Canada
•
Trucks haul 67% of the shipment values out of Canada
Arguably 100% of off shore shipments move one leg via truck (data expressed in terms of value of shipments)
150000
Exhibit 18: Truck Share of
Transborder Traffic
100000
50000
1995 Truck
1995 Rail
0
Export Import ExportsImports
to Mx from to CN from
MX
CN
1995 Rail
THE TIOGA GROUP
1998 Rail
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
1995 Truck
1998 Truck
34
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Most heavy-duty trucks are in private fleets
Exhibit 19: Distribution of Heavy Trucks
by Major Use 1997
68%
68% of
of the
the heavy
heavy trucks
trucks are
are in
in
private
private fleets
fleets
8%
15%
32%
8%
6%
6%
3%2%
2%
THE TIOGA GROUP
18%
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
For Hire
Construction
Mining
Utilities
Forestry
Manufacturing
Retail
Service
Agriculture
Wholesale
35
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Most trucks serve local and short-haul markets
•
Distribution of Heavy Trucks
Range of Operations 1997
§ 39.5% local (down from 44.6% in 92)
§ 16.7% short range (increase from 15.9% in 92)
§ 16% long range (up from 13.7% in 92)
§ 23% mid range (up from 20% in 92)
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
36
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Size of the US Trucking Industry
20 Million Trucks
§ 2.3 million class 8 trucks
§ 4.4 million commercial trailers
§ Largest number are private fleets
414 billion Miles in 1998
§ Class 8 average 48,000 miles/year
§ Many long haul trucks travel more than 100,000 miles per year
501,744 interstate carriers as of March 2000 (up from 20,000 in 1980)
§ 72.1% operate 6 or fewer trucks
§ 80.3% have 20 or fewer trucks
9.7 million people are employed in trucking (1998)
3 million truck drivers of all types (1999)
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
37
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
New Truck Sales
Sales of new trucks were up in 2000, but are expected to decline in 2001
Light trucks – pickups, vans, SUVs –account for most of the trucks being built.
Exhibit 20: New Truck Sales
2000 9 Mos 1999 9 Mos
Light trucks
Class 1 (0-6000lbs)
Class 2 (6,001–10,000 lbs.)
Medium Duty Trucks
Class 3 (10,001–14,000 lbs.)
Class 4 (14,001–16,000 lbs.)
Class 5 (16,001–19,500 lbs.)
Class 6 (19,501–26,000 lbs.)
Heavy Duty Trucks (Semis)
Class 7 (26,001–33,000 lbs.)
Class 8 (33,001 lbs. +)
Total
Change
5,850,108
3,995,903
1,854,205
190,928
89,786
36,614
22,268
42,260
267,575
97,518
5,531,566
3,774,446
1,757,120
187,966
91,857
37,887
23,362
34,860
293,586
100,070
5.8%
5.9%
5.5%
1.6%
-2.3%
-3.4%
-4.7%
21.2%
-8.9%
-2.6%
170,057
6,308,611
193,516
6,013,118
-12.1%
4.9%
2-yr Share
92%
3%
5%
100%
Source: National Truck Equipment Association
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
38
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Full Truckload Carriers – Plain Vanilla Trucks
•
“For Hire” commercial trucking in full loads from shipper to receiver
§ Primarily 53’ trailers and long-haul Class 8 tractors with single drivers, often with sleeper cabs
§ Names like Swift, MS Carriers, J.B. Hunt and Werner come to mind in this category. The majority of
the “for hire” truckers are in this category. Many of these same companies also offer dedicated
services.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
39
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Full Truckload Carriers
Market Drivers
Carrier’s Perspective
Ease of doing business
Irregular route business
Best fit for short haul movements
Highest driver turnover, irregular hours
Door to door control
450-550 miles per driver/day
No need for intermediaries
28,000 lbs per load
Class 8 tractors
53’ trailer dominates market
Must keep empty miles low
Driver paid per loaded route mile
Rates vary based on market surplus or deficit
Variety of driver work
Up to three trailers to single driver
Non-union operation
Some intermodal lanes may convert business
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
40
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Less Than Truckload (LTL)
and Small Package Carriers
•
Less-than-truckload shipments consolidated at terminals (hubs) into full line-haul truckloads, then
deconsolidated and delivered at origin
•
Includes UPS, FedEx Ground, Postal Service
•
Includes major national LTLs such as Yellow Freight, Consolidated Freightways, and Roadway
•
This type of equipment is used to gather and disperse freight to and from the crossdock where full
truck load shipments are consolidated in dense lane networks.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
41
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Less-than-Truckload
Market Drivers
Carrier’s Perspective
Less than 10,000 lbs per shipment
Union mostly.
No freight to consolidate
Hub and spoke distribution network.
At certain point may be cheaper to ship in full
truckload for improved service.
Rail use limited by union agreement.
Will grow with e-commerce trends.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Longer transit than single truck due to handling at
pick up and delivery nodes.
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
42
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Typical LTL/Parcel (UPS) Shipment Cycle
§
§
§
§
§
A driver picks up a package at 4 p.m. in Montgomery, Ala. It is destined for Greenville S.C. The driver
returns to the Montgomery operating center where the Greenville package is put aboard a tractor trailer that departs by 7 p.m. for a major hub near Atlanta.
There, that package and all others are unloaded and put through the "sort" at the hub. Every
operating center connected to this hub sends its packages in for sorting.
The package destined for Greenville is sorted into the tractor-trailer that comes into the hub from
Greenville. At 2 a.m. when the sort is completed, the Greenville vehicle departs for its operating
center.
When the package arrives in Greenville, it is loaded aboard the delivery vehicle that serves that
address, and will be delivered before noon.
Packages traveling greater distances move from hub to hub. For instance, if a package for Greenville
were to originate in Chicago, it would be loaded aboard a feeder at a Chicago hub and taken to the
hub near Atlanta. From there, it would move to Greenville in the same manner as the Montgomery
package.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
43
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Intermodal Drayage
Market Drivers
Carrier’s Perspective
Local or intercity.
Drayage can be local or regional
Move containers and trailers between ports, railroads,
and customers.
Drivers are home every night
Derived demand from maritime
and rail activity.
Relies heavily on independent owner-operators
Time based rate structure.
Highest stem time.
Many providers in local markets.
High variability in information capabilities and
performance.
Information intense.
Equipment interchanges and damage inspections
critical.
Round trip rates.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
44
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Private Trucking
Non-commercial, not for hire trucking
Operated for the firm’s own business
The majority of trucks on the road are private
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
45
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Dedicated and/or Contract Trucking
For-Hire commercial trucking under contract to a single customer and dedicated to that customer’s business
Commonly replaces private fleets
Examples include Summit (for Safeway) and Marten Brower (for McDonald’s)
It is often hard to distinguish between dedicate and private fleets.
§
In these pictures, note the Pepsi truck has a Pepsi tractor. Pepsi contracted out with a full truckload
carrier to paint and provide dedicated service for this company.
§ The Dupont Tank truck is being pulled by a privately owned tractor. This is an example where Dupont
owns the tank truck and the driver is hired on a contact basis.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
46
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Dedicated or Contract Trucking
Market Drivers
Carrier’s Perspective
Used in closed loop applications
Highest utilization
Gives control of multi-stop scheduling.
Highest driver satisfaction
Lower cost than irregular route truck if route structure
can yield low empty miles.
Predictable routes and mileage
Highest service performance
Often characterized by private fleet of trailers.
Most profitable if empty miles are low.
Often used for intra-company shipments.
Class 8 tractors
Dedicated Trucking is a For Hire carrier’s term for the type of service offered when a “private fleet” is taken
over. There was a significant trend in the middle 90’s to outsource private fleets. The idea was that a full
truckload carrier would have a driver pool which could buffer peaks and valleys in a private fleet’s annual
work pattern. It was also assumed that the full truckload carrier would have the infrastructure to maintain the
equipment and the administration to better track regulatory issues and reporting. Service levels are almost
always higher when a route is “engineered” or dedicated to a closed loop operation.
Large carriers with dedicated fleets are J.B. Hunt, M.S. Carriers, Werner, Schneider and others.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
47
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Bulk/Tank/Specialized Trucking
There are numerous other segments of the trucking
industry.
Wide variety of specialized trailers including
tanks, hoppers, flatbeds, etc.
Markets range from national to local niches
These types of trucking, however, are largely
irrelevant to the potential for shifts between truck and
rail.
These types do become significant, however, in the
pick-up and delivery functions for rail-truck
transloading
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
48
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Trucking Industry Operating Expenses
•
Trucking industry operating costs include numerous overhead categories, notably insurance and
depreciation, as well as the obvious fuel, labor, and equipment expenses.
•
Labor and equipment costs together account for 78% of the total
Exhibit 21: Trucking Cost Shares
8%
3%
Equipment
23%
5%
Wages
3%
Supplies Including
Maintenance
Insurance
13%
Depreciation
Other
45%
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Tax & Lic
49
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Truckload Operating Costs: About $1.12/mile
Exhibit 22: Truck Operating Costs
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
50
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Truck Issues and Outlook
By every indication the trucking industry is in for difficult times.
§
The driver shortage is not going away, and it is affecting every segment of the trucking industry.
Wages, training costs, and recruitment expenses are all rising.
§
Insurance is sort of a hidden cost in trucking, but it is rising too. A serious side issue is that rising
insurance costs tempt marginal firms to skimp on coverage or let it lapse.
§
Fuel prices have come down a bit in recent months but are still uncomfortably high.
§ Environmental restrictions and highway congestion are becoming facts of life, especially here on the
West Coast.
§
Against this background of rising costs customers continue to want better, faster, and cheaper
service.
There are several regulatory and/or legislative issue son the horizon that could increase truck operating costs
§ Hours of Service
§ Electronic logs
§ Repetitive motion injuries
§ Reduction of highway access
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
51
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Distribution Profiles Are Changing
The Economy is Changing
§ Global access has increased accessibility of raw materials
§ Global transportation has enabled us to lower labor costs
Industry is Changing
§ Fewer Distribution Centers
§ More frequent shipments
§ Smaller average load size
§ Faster replenishment cycle
§ Lower inventories
§ Improved information and technology
§ Expanded logistics services
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
52
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Truck Transportation Growth
Truck ton-miles are growing faster than other modes
Factors Which Influence Truck Growth
§ Demographics influence Driver hire statistics
§ Changes in distribution
§ Advances in logistics technology
§ Changes in inventory control methods
§ Availability of competitive transportation services
§ Cost of Capitol
§ Price of fuel
§ Cost of Insurance
§ Hours of Service
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1989
Rail
Truck
Water
1991
1993
1995
1997
Exhibit 23: Modal Ton-mile Growth
Water
Truck
Rail
Source Martin Labbe and Assoc.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
53
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Recent purchases are reducing the average age of the truck fleet
Exhibit 24: Truck Fleet Age
US Class 8 Vehicle Population Age Trends
3000
1-5 years
6-10 years
>10 years
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1998
THE TIOGA GROUP
2000
2004
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
54
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Trucks and the Environment
•
•
Combination trucks consumed less than 30% as much fuel as passenger vehicles did in 1998, only
14% of the total, but traveling only 8 percent as much mileage as passenger cars.
The industry is placing emphasis on fuel efficiency and design and maintenance initiatives. Between
1989 and 1998 combination truck miles rose 42% while the fuel consumption increased only 23%.
Exhibit 25: Trucking Fuel Consumption
1998 Vehicle Miles and Fuel Consumption
Combo Truck
Single Truck
Car
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Fuel Use
Rural Miles
Urban Miles
Source: Highway Statistics 1998. Federal
Highway Admin, US DOT
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
55
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Trucking Safety Is Improving
Exhibit 26: Trucking Safety
Safety – Fatal Crash Rates (per 100 million vehicle miles of travel)
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Source: ATA Safety Department, National Highway Traffic Safety Admin, US DOT
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
56
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Trucking Equipment and Technology Trends
Technology:
Equipment:
Will improve information in the supply chain.
Tri axles will grow to meet heavy payload demand.
While expensive to implement will be necessary to
improve productivity.
57’ trailers not like to grow in the “rust belt states” due
to infrastructure limitations.
More information will lead to improved services and
pricing.
As driver population shrinks truckers will look toward
equipment productivity gains.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
57
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Trucking Industry outlook
Expected Changes
§ Freight growth will slow dramatically.
§ Fuel prices will remain higher than historic averages.
§ Driver availability will cause 25% increase in wages.
§ Insurance increases will average 15% for the next three years.
§ 60% of operating costs will face increases in excess of 15% per year.
§ Hours of Service will be revisited.
§ Environmental concerns and urban congestion will press for more freight options.
The Impact of E - Commerce
§ Electronic posting of loads will increase productivity
§ Length of haul will shrink
§ Frequency of shipments will increase
§ Weight of shipments will decrease
§ Mode of shipment my shift from truckload to LTL
§ Consolidation and Deconsolidation logistics industries will thrive during this transition.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
58
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Truck Forecast
•
Trucks will continue to dominate most commodity groups. Truck will gain share in moving products relative
to other modes. Most o the truck volume growth after 2003 will be attributed to increased output of
manufactured goods and small package deliveries, e-commerce support.
Improvements In the motor carrier market share through 2008 comes primarily at the expense of the rail
industry.
Exhibit 27: Volume & Share by Mode 1998-2008
Mode
1998
2003
2008
1998
2003
2008
Frt. Vol.
Frt. Vol.
Frt. Vol.
Mode Share
Mode Share
Mode Share
Truck
7,688
8,296
9,274
63.3%
63.6%
64.3%
Rail
1,924
2,018
2,199
15.8%
15.5%
15.3%
148
170
207
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
.1%
.2%
.2%
Intermodal
Air
18
23
28
Water
1,187
1,262
1,381
9.8%
9.7%
9.6%
Pipeline
1,188
1,264
1,322
9.8%
9.7%
9.2%
TOTAL
12,155
13,035
THE TIOGA GROUP
14,413
100%
100%
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
100%
59
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Distribution of Motor Carriers
•
•
•
According to the Office of Motor Carriers, in March 2000 there were more than 500,000 motor carriers
in the U.S.
This incorporates all types of fleets, including for-hire, both TL and TLT, private carriers, owner
operators and governments. Compared with December 1998 the total number of carriers rose by
9.3%
The SCAG Region is home to nearly 30,000 motor carriers of all kinds, and is also served by
thousands of carriers located across the nation
Exhibit 28: National Distribution of Motor Carriers
24,568
78,031
85,467
24,963
44,173
61,635
29,528
101,246
52,133
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
60
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
California has a low speed limit for trucks
Exhibit 29: Trucking Speed Limits
60
65
55
75
70
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
61
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
California is a high-cost state for trucking
Exhibit 30: 1998 Commercial Truck State User Taxes
State
Annual
Registration
Fees
Fuel Tax on
14,035
gallons
Total Annual State
Hwy fees
State Ranking
Oregon
$345
0
$11,265
1
New York
$995
$3,937
$8,892
2
Arizona
$3,631
$3,790
$7,420
3
California
$3,850
$3,509
$7,359
4
Colorado
$4,464
$2,877
$7,341
5
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
62
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
Truckload carriage dominates SCAG Regional shipment
Truckload carriers dominate SCAG regional shipments at all lengths of haul
Rail and intermodal competition becomes significant only beyond 500 miles
Exhibit 31: S. Calif. Modal Shares and Length of Haul
Modal Shares & Length of Haul
1997 CFS Data for Southern California
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
1%
3%
4%
4%
95%
10%
13%
5%
90%
12%
100% 100% 100%
85%
98%
96%
Rail Intermodal
Rail Carload
Truckload
80%
3%
4%
91%
87%
84% 83%
75%
<50
THE TIOGA GROUP
50 to 99 100 to
249
250 to
499
500 to
749
750 to
999
1000 to 1500 to
1499
1999
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
2000+
63
Chapter 3 - Truck Transportation
SCAG Region “Long-Haul” Truck Commodities
Exhibit 32: Long-Haul Truck Commodities
Truckload and LTL "Long-Haul" Truck Tonnage
-
5
10
Millions
15
20
Small Packaged Shipments
Food & Kindred Products
Clay, Glass, & Stone Products
Lumber & Wood Products
Field Crops
Chemicals & Products
Petroleum & Coal Products
Pulp & Paper Products
Primary Metal Products
Electrical Equipment
Fabricated Metal Products
Machinery, Etc.
Rubber & Plastic Products
TL
LTL
Transportation Equipment
Printed Matter
Waste & Scrap Materials
All Other
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
64
Chapter IV – Rail Transportation
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
65
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail Transportation Overview
•
Customers receive service via a company rail siding or must have access to a rail transfer facility such as
an intermodal terminal or a bulk transload facility
•
Freight railroads account for a large portion of U.S. freight transportation
§ More than 40% of the nation’s intercity ton miles
§ 11% of the the nation’s freight bill
§ 70% of vehicles from domestic manufacturers
§ 64% of the nation’s coal
§ 40% of the nation’s grain
•
Freight railroads are mostly privately owned and financed
•
The industry is highly capital intensive
§ High barriers to entry
§ High fixed costs relative to variable costs
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
66
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Railroad Development
Railroads were developed in the 1800s and early 1900s
§ Approximately 30,000 miles of railroad line were constructed prior to the Civil War
§ Following the war many thousands of miles were built, much of them in the west
§ The first transcontinental railroad was completed in 1869
§ The peak in railroad building came in the 1880s when over 70,000 miles were constructed
§ The expansion period was practically over by 1916 when the railroad mileage in the United States
was 254,037
Railroads dominated intercity freight transportation through World War II
§ Market dominance and monopoly practices by railroads resulted in a series of regulatory laws being
passed between 1877 and 1920
§ From that time and during the depression, market share remained high but financial performance
declined
§ Railroads survived because of continued high large demand for transportation services and because
of public sector promotional activity during World War I and World War II
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
67
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
By 1970, a heavy regulatory burden had the industry on the brink of
ruin
•
•
•
•
Increasing modal competition, predominately from trucks and barges as the federal highway system
and interstate waterway system were expanded at federal expense post World War II
Extensive rate and service regulation, where rail rates in many cases bore no relation to the
underlying cost structure of providing rail service
Railroads were prohibited from adjusting their physical plant to meet the needs of the changing
transportation marketplace
Railroad market share dropped nearly in half
Exhibit 33: Rail Ton-Mile Shares
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
68
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
The Staggers Act saved the industry
Congress intervened with the passage of the Staggers Rail Act Of 1980
§ Railroads were allowed to set their own rates in response to competition in the transportation
marketplace where such competition existed
§ Railroads were able to differentiate their pricing and service structure on competing routes in
response to demand in each traffic lane
§ Railroads were permitted to enter into confidential contracts specifying price and service levels
§ The process whereby railroads were allowed to abandon or sell under-performing or unutilized rail
lines was streamlined
§ Slow market share recovery up until 1996
§ Improving, although still not impressive, profitability and rates of return in the industry
§ According to the Association of American Railroads the industry Return on Investment (ROI)
increased from 2% in the 1970’s to 7% in the 1990’s
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
69
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Staggers plus new technology resulted in major changes in the rail
industry
•
Line rationalization resulted in the elimination of inefficient routes, strengthening efficient route structures
and driving down costs
§ Plummeting rail rates (down 57% in real terms 1981-1998, per AAR)
§ Significant and continuing gains in railroad productivity
§ The remaining publicly held railroads in North America were privatized
§ Short line and regional railroads proliferated
§ Consolidation among the large railroads accelerated into the late 1990’s
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
70
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Class I rail mileage has declined
Exhibit 34: Class I Rail Mileage
200000
Miles
150000
100000
50000
0
1970
THE TIOGA GROUP
1975
1980
1985
1990
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
1995
1999
71
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Employment has declined dramatically
Exhibit 35: US Railroad Employment
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
1999
Employees (thousands)
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
72
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Performance has improved
Exhibit 36: Rail Industry Performance Measures
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
73
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Operating margins have increased
Exhibit 37: Class I Railroad Operating Margin
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
74
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Unit capital investment increased
Exhibit 38: Rail Industry Capital Expenditures
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
75
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Financial returns have improved
Exhibit 39: Railroad Industry Financial Returns
9
% Return on Investment
8
7
6
5
8.3
4
7.81
6.24
3
5.56
5.25
2
3.02
2.65
1
0
1970
THE TIOGA GROUP
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
1999
76
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Structural Changes
Publicly held North American railroads have been privatized
§ Conrail returned to profitability following Staggers and was privatized in 1987
§ Canadian National was privatized in the early 1990s and is now one of the most efficient railways on
the continent
§ Mexican Railway was divided into five concessions that we auctioned in the late 1990s
Small railroad companies have grown in importance
§ The number of Class II and Class III railroads has grown to over 500 firms
§ $ 3 Billion in revenue from 11 million carloads
§ 29% of the track miles, or about 49,600 miles of track
§ smaller railroads are able to offer custom service at lower cost because of lower overhead and often
non union employees
Large railroads have continued to pursue consolidation
§ Mergers have produced favorable economics – reducing rail costs relative to trucks
§ But, service problems resulting from the restructuring is putting downward pressure on rail market
share
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
77
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail Tonnage is dominated by a few major bulk commodities
Exhibit 40: 1999 Rail Tonnage By Major Commodity Group
1
Coal
751 Million Tons
2
Chemicals
154 Million Tons
3
Farm Products
139 Million Tons
4
Nonmetallic Minerals
125 Million Tons
5
Intermodal
96 Million Tons
6
Food Products
92 Million Tons
7
Primary Metal Products
56 Million Tons
8
Lumber and Wood Products
50 Million Tons
9
All Other
THE TIOGA GROUP
305 Million Tons
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
78
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Coal is the largest revenue source, followed by intermodal
Exhibit 41: 1999 Rail Traffic By Major Commodity Group
1
Coal
$7.7 Billion
2
Intermodal
$4.7 Billion
3
Chemicals
$4.6 Billion
4
Transportation Equipment
$3.6 Billion
5
Farm Products
$2.7 Billion
6
Food Products
$2.4 Billion
7
Lumber and Wood Products
$1.5 Billion
8
Pulp and Paper Products
$1.5 Billion
9
All Other
$6.7 Billion
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
79
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Locomotive fleet age is declining
Locomotives can easily last for 30 years with periodic rebuilding
Aggressive ordering of new locomotives in recent years has resulted in a relatively new fleet
Exhibit 42: Locomotive Fleet Age Distribution 1999
0-4 yrs
20%
25yrs or more
25%
4-9 yrs
13%
20-24 yrs
20%
THE TIOGA GROUP
15-19 yrs
13%
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
10-14 yrs
9%
80
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Types of Freight Cars
•
•
•
The railroad industry as a whole uses over 1.3 million freight cars
The fleet is heavily weighted toward specialized cars for bulk commodities: hoppers and gondolas for
coal, tank cars and cover hoppers for chemicals, covered hoppers for grain, etc.
Many specialized types, notably tank cars, are owned and supplied primarily by customers or leasing
companies
Exhibit 43: Freight Car Types
Covered
Hoppers
29%
Others
1%
Refrigerator
Cars
2%
Tank Cars
18%
Flat Cars
11%
Hoppers
12%
THE TIOGA GROUP
Box Cars
12%
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Gondolas
15%
81
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail carload service profile
Traditional freight trains made up of individual cars
Unit trains made up of identical cars carrying a single commodity
§ Shipments may be one car or several
§ Local trains pick up the cars from a company rail siding
§ Local trains deliver the cars to rail classification yards which build intercity trains
§ Intercity trains deliver the cars to the classification yard in the destination city and the process is
repeated in reverse for the delivery
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
82
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail Carload Service
Rail carload customers typically are moving low value, bulk commodities
§ Less than unit train volumes moving between a variety of origin and destination pairs
§ Low value commodities
§ Low transportation cost is more important that transit time or predictability
§ Long distance movements (1000+ miles) which favor rail economics over truck
Rail Access is Not Automatic
§ Customers ordinarily receive service via a company rail siding
§ Alternatively a customer might have access to a rail transfer or bulk “transload” facility
§ Rail intermodal service requires economical trucking to a nearby rail intermodal terminal (“ramp”)
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
83
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Truck-Rail Transload Service Profile
Rail cars may be loaded at a production plant, rail siding, or a transfer terminal
§ Example: autos moving from a production facility to a terminal in major metropolitan market
§ Example: flour being transferred from rail to truck by conveyor
Trucks deliver cargo to the customers
§ Example: autos moving from terminal to dealers
§ Example: flour moving from the terminal to a bakery
Transload Facility and Commodity Types
§ Commodities are diverse but have a common characteristic: the use of efficient handling equipment
to transfer between rail and truck.
§ The commodities generally unload from rail into either storage or onto a truck, but they can load from
truck to railcar for outbound movement
§ Some sites, particularly those concentrating on a single commodity,can occupy a large area and have
as many as 75-100 loaded cars on hand.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
84
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Transload Facility and Commodity Types
Multi-purpose transload center
Liquid Asphalt
Dry bulk minerals
Wallboard & Building Materials
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
85
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Transload Facility and Commodity Types
Paper & Newsprint
Coil steel
Plastic pellets
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Scrap metal
86
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Transload Facility and Commodity Types
Solid waste containers
Dry bulk cement
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
87
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail unit trains are the lowest cost option
•
Rail unit trains handle a large number of railcars moving between a specific origin and destination on a
repetitive round-trip basis
§ Example: coal moving from the mine to a power generating plant in a 100-car train
§ Example: grain moving from country to terminal grain elevators
•
Because the fixed cost of the “train start” is spread across the large number of carloads on the train, unit
cost and therefore price per carload is typically low
•
Rail unit train customers enjoy the benefits gained in moving large volumes
§ Utilities are the major unit trains customers,hauling coal from mine to generating plant.
§ Large volume, repetitive moves of the same commodity between the same origin and destination
§ No special handling of the product is required
§ Relatively low service sensitivity
§ Relatively low value of commodity being transported dictates low transportation costs
§ Limited number of origin and destination pairs
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
88
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Intermodal is the railroad’s premium service
•
Cargo is loaded in trailers or ocean containers and delivered by draymen to an intermodal terminal located
in a major city
•
The trailers and containers are loaded on rail cars
•
High speed trains move the containers and trailers to terminals in a city close to its ultimate destination,
where they are unloaded
•
Motor carriers deliver the cargo to the shipper’s dock
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
89
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail Industry Outlook
•
Plateauing of productivity and profitability gains that can be achieved through route rationalization, systems
upgrades and consolidation
•
Continuing intense competition for transportation services
•
Shifting consumer purchasing patterns causing shifts in the supply chain toward smaller, faster, and more
reliable transportation services
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
90
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
The fundamental issue for the industry is inadequate financial
performance
RR Cost of Capital
Exhibit 44: Inadequate Rail Industry Financial Performance
13
11
% Return on Investment
9
7
5
3
1
1990
1991 1992
1993 1994
Return
THE TIOGA GROUP
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Capital Cost
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
91
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Significant capital is required to maintain the status quo
Exhibit 45: Rail Industry Capital Needs
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
92
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail Carload Service Potential
•
Increased carload rail service would reduce congestion and emissions but has practical limits.
§ Rail carload is already a low-cost mode for line-haul, but is most effective as a specialized service for
appropriate commodities rather than an all-purpose mode.
§ Local switching is costly,time-consuming, and has higher emissions
§ Access to direct carload service is a major barrier
§ Current logistics practices also limit the commercial application of carload service.
•
Short-haul rail service may be applicable to niche markets
§ Short-line service may be feasible in the SCAG region but faces obstacles
§ Direct carload rail service requires rail access on both ends of the movement.
§ Older, smaller industrial districts with rail access may have difficulty attracting the largest new clients.
§ Sites with rail access most often use rail carload service for bulk or semi-bulk industrial commodities,
not merchandise.
§ Many newer distribution centers and manufacturing plants are built without direct rail access, limiting
their use of rail carload service to transloading.
§ Adding rail access is generally impractical, with new sidings costing at least $750,000 to $1 million.
§ With present logistics practices emphasizing smaller shipment sizes and lower inventories,
opportunities to shift truck trips to rail carload are very limited.
§ Where customers have worked with railroads to design and implement the appropriate service,
results have been very good.
§ As with access, a shift to carload rail service changes logistics on both ends of the movement.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
93
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
California Railroad Infrastructure
Exhibit 46: California Railroad Map
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
94
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Freight Railroad Traffic in California
Exhibit 47: California Rail Traffic
Tons Originated 1999
Mixed Freight
24,311,415
44%
Food Products
5,931,412
11%
Chemicals
3,346,040
6%
Primary Metal Products
3,284,650
6%
Petroleum
2,454,476
4%
All Other
15,920,644
29%
Total
55,248,637
100%
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
95
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Railroad Geography
•
The pattern of rail carload traffic to and from the greater Los Angeles area (BEA 160) is determined
primarily by inalterable facts of geography.
•
The major California, Nevada, and Arizona markets are within 250-500 miles (encompassing Bakersfield to
Tucson).
•
National markets begin at about 1200 miles (Portland and beyond).
•
There are no large markets between these two groups. A few smaller markets (Salt Lake City, El Paso,
Albuquerque) are in the 700-900 mile range.
Exhibit 48: Rail Market Geography
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
96
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail Miles to Major Markets
Exhibit 49: Rail Miles to Major Markets
Rail Miles from Los Angeles
0
San Bernardino
San Diego
Barstow
El Centro
Bakersfield
Needles
LasVegas
Fresno
Phoenix
San Francisco
Oakland
Stockton
Tuscon
Sacramento
Redding
Salt Lake City
El Paso
Albuquerque
Portland
Denver
Seattle
Dallas
Oklahoma City
Houston
Kansas City
New Orleans
St Louis
Chicago
Atlanta
Memphis
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
59
94
140
REGIONAL MARKETS
221
279
308
324
377
425
470
487
498
502
542
714
783
874
889
NATIONAL MARKETS
1188
1353
1370
1460
1490
1641
1776
1966
2032
2227
2285
2306
Source: Rand McNalley
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
97
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail carload service data
•
The Carload Waybill Sample is a statistically sophisticated annual sample of railroad records authorized by
the Surface Transportation Board.
•
Tioga obtained the most recent data (1999) through Caltrans.
•
Data were analyzed to provide an initial profile of rail carload service to and from the Greater Los Angeles
area (BEA 160).
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
98
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Freight Railroad Traffic in California
Exhibit 50: California Rail Tons Terminated ,1999
Mixed Freight
21,102,220 24%
Food Products
8,876,928 10%
Chemicals
8,605,608 10%
Primary Metal Products
8,434,827 10%
Petroleum
6,524,872
All Other
6,524,872 39%
Total
THE TIOGA GROUP
7%
34,023,362 100%
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
99
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Nature of commodities shipped by rail
•
•
•
•
•
Southern California producers cannot easily compete in distant markets, and firms that produce such
goods in more than one region have no need to ship fungible products long distances and are less
likely to be produced elsewhere
Examples could include crude oil production not accessible via pipeline and seasonal movements of
sugar beets or cotton.
Bulk Commodities such as Chemicals, Cement, or Petroleum Products are heavy, produced in
several regions, and transportation is a large part of the total delivered price. Thus, these products
travel relatively short distances to serve nearby markets.
More specialized or valuable commodities such as Steel Products, Mineral Products, and Motor
Vehicles, can support higher transportation costs. These commodities can and do move farther.
Shorter-haul traffic such as Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas and Field Crops are likely to be raw
materials produced within the region and moved to processing facilities in Southern California.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
100
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail carload traffic origin states
Major Origins of So. Calif. Carload Traffic
Over 80% came from west of the Mississippi
24% came from other points in California
Exhibit 51: California Rail Traffic Origins
Origin State
California
Texas
Utah
Missouri
Oregon
Illinois
Nebraska
Louisiana
Washington
Colorado
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
All Others
Total
Reported
Carloads
117,882
53,740
39,541
36,860
31,220
26,932
17,668
15,800
12,912
9,881
8,614
7,140
6,480
96,591
481,261
Reported
Tons
Carload % Cumulative %
10,161,684
4,020,257
4,034,505
1,025,460
2,455,296
1,019,780
1,749,379
1,289,812
1,051,176
978,598
800,363
542,932
215,080
6,815,082
36,159,404
THE TIOGA GROUP
24%
11%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
20%
100%
24%
36%
44%
52%
58%
64%
67%
71%
73%
75%
77%
79%
80%
100%
100%
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
United States
0.25
0.125
0.025
Carload %
United States
by Carload %
0.112 to
0.077 to
0.037 to
0.021 to
0.013 to
101
0.245
0.112
0.077
0.037
0.021
(1)
(2)
(3)
(3)
(4)
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail carload commodities received
Inbound freight is also mostly industrial products and raw materials
Exhibit 52: California Inbound Rail Commodities
Commodity
Steel Products
Coal
Chemicals
Field Crops
Grain Products
Motor Vehicles
Petroleum Products
Lumber
Paperboard
Plastics
Crude Pet. & Natural Gas
Paper
Misc. Wood Products
Beverages
Misc. Foods
Cement
Sand & Gravel
Misc. Mineral Products
All Others
Total
THE TIOGA GROUP
Exp
Carloads
Exp Tons
63,528
37,402
33,876
30,785
20,076
82,000
23,544
20,360
25,880
16,680
16,286
13,944
10,440
11,272
8,332
6,756
5,628
5,856
48,616
481,261
5,503,216
3,985,715
3,241,360
3,042,096
1,823,372
1,809,464
1,762,768
1,741,080
1,700,040
1,559,360
1,440,880
970,396
828,240
788,668
748,332
612,200
567,936
560,248
3,474,033
36,159,404
Avg.
Miles
1,217
950
2,116
2,251
269
1,470
1,600
1,391
2,009
1,872
270
2,168
2,151
289
282
2,527
143
2,049
1,360
1,414
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Tons Cumulative
%
%
15%
11%
9%
8%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
10%
100%
15%
26%
35%
44%
49%
54%
59%
63%
68%
72%
76%
79%
81%
84%
86%
87%
89%
90%
100%
100%
102
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail carload traffic destination states
Major Destination States for So. Calif. Carload Traffic
•
Most rail carload traffic originating in Southern
California terminates in nearby states. Almost 60%
stays in California.
United States
0.59
0.295
0.059
Carload %
United States
Exhibit 53: California Rail Freight Destinations
Destination State
Reported
Carloads
California
Texas
Arizona
Utah
Oregon
Illinois
Colorado
Washington
Missouri
All Other States
Total
THE TIOGA GROUP
Reported
Tons
114,194
20,092
18,688
4,972
4,248
4,052
4,004
3,096
1,984
19,207
194,537
9,986,628
1,122,908
1,495,296
448,200
296,928
335,664
276,804
203,732
98,092
1,314,966
15,579,218
by Carload %
Carload
%
Cumulative %
59%
10%
10%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
10%
100%
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
0.587 to
0.096 to
0.022 to
0.021 to
0.01 to
0.588
0.587
0.096
0.022
0.021
59%
69%
79%
81%
83%
85%
88%
89%
90%
100%
100%
103
(1)
(2)
(1)
(1)
(4)
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
Rail carload commodities shipped
•
Nearly all Southern California rail carload tonnage is heavy bulk commodities, industrial products, or inputs
to manufacturing.
Exhibit 54: Southern California Rail Commodities Shipped
Commodity
Exp Tons
Steel Products
Chemicals
Cement
Petroleum Products
Waste or Scrap
Crude Pet. & Natural Gas
Beverages
Coal & Pet. Products
Field Crops
Misc. Mineral Products
Motor Vehicles
Plastics
All Others
Total
THE TIOGA GROUP
4,001,932
2,711,228
1,583,012
1,333,664
1,116,036
823,716
568,900
529,812
451,568
391,400
261,488
240,688
1,565,774
15,579,218
Avg.
Miles
2,133
544
280
236
1,520
111
520
188
149
1,879
1,451
378
762
990
Tons
%
26%
17%
10%
9%
7%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
10%
100%
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Cumulative
%
26%
43%
53%
62%
69%
74%
78%
81%
84%
87%
88%
90%
100%
100%
104
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
SCAG Region Carload Traffic Origins
Most SCAG region carload traffic originates in a small number of scattered industrial districts.
Exhibit 55: SCAG Region Rail Carload Origins
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
105
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
SCAG Region Carload Traffic Origins
Carload Origins: Central L.A. (90055)
Carload Origins: El Segundo (90245)
Older industrial district with rail sidings
Refineries and liquid bulk
Chevron
Chevron Oil
Oil Refinery
Refinery
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
106
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
SCAG Region Carload Traffic Origins
Carload Origins: Torrance (90510)
Carload Origins: Paramount (90723)
Bulk processing and industrial parks
Mixed industrial district with rail access
Crenshaw Blvd.
E.
Washington
Bandini Blvd
I5
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
107
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
SCAG Region Carload Traffic Origins
Carload Origins: Carson (90745)
Carload Origins: Wilmington (90748)
Large, newer distribution centers and indusial sites
with rail access.
Refineries.
E. Watson Center
Rd.
Wilmington
Ave.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
108
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
SCAG Region Carload Traffic Origins
Carload Origins: Long Beach (90801)
Carload Origins: North Hollywood (91603)
Petroleum products, bulks, autos.
Older industrial area.
Airport
Toyota
Toyota
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
109
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
SCAG Region Carload Traffic Origins
Carload Origins: Walnut (91789)
Carload Origins: Colton (92235)
Major new distribution centers and indusial sites with
rail access.
Outlying industrial area along rail route.
Valley
Blvd.
Business
Pkwy.
THE TIOGA GROUP
W.
W. Rialto
Rialto
Ave.
Ave.
W.
W. Huff
Huff
St.
St.
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
110
Chapter 4 – Rail Transportation
SCAG Region Carload Traffic Origins
Carload Origins: Fontana (92324)
Major Inland Empire industry.
San
San
Bernardino
Bernardino
Ave.
Ave.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
111
Chapter VIII – Potential Modal Diversions
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
217
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Diversion Analysis Methodology
Diversion estimates were based on:
•
Length of haul
§ A truck mileage matrix was developed for internal and external trip “centroids”
§ Survey data on intermodal preferences were used to assign divertability indices to distance
categories
•
Commodity modal shares
§ Major HDT commodities were identified
§ US and SCAG region modal shares were compared to create indices for greater rail and intermodal
shares
•
Length of haul and commodity indices were combined to estimate diversion percentages by regional pair,
commodity, and mode
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
218
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
HDT Truck Data Methodology
Data files from the SCAG Heavy-Duty Truck Model were used to estimate the truck traffic that could be diverted
to rail.
Ideally, the approach to estimating truck VMT would be to identify those commodities that are competitive for rail
service and O-D pairs by Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) Unfortunately, the data in the SCAG files make
this analysis impractical. All of the preparation of truck trip tables in the SCAG input files is done by
spreadsheet. Additionally, there are over 5,000 TAZs in the network, almost 40 commodity groups, and 11
external regions. This yields a 200,000-by-11 matrix that would need to be multiplied cell-by-cell by a 5000-by11 matrix (the TAZ centroid to external cordon values) in order to estimate VMT.
As an alternative to the TAZ-level approach, a simplified approach operating on county-to-county data was
performed. From the SCAG truck model input files, spreadsheets with tonnages and truck trips by commodity to
each external region were created for each of the following internal SCAG regions:
§Los Angeles County
§Orange County
§Ventura County
§the urbanized portion of Riverside County
§the urbanized portion of San Bernardino County
§Coachella Valley
§Victor Valley
Tonnages were further disaggregated into truckload (TL) and less than truckload (LTL) values for each
commodity to external region. From these spreadsheets, commodities that are not likely to ship by rail along
with any external regions that were too close to the SCAG region to represent a viable market for rail hauls were
removed from the spreadsheet.
THE TIOGA GROUP
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219
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Truck Flow Mileage Matrix
•
Truck mileage distance for each diverted trip was estimated as the distance from the centroid of each
internal region to each external cordon. Employment centroids, rather than geographic centroids, were
used to better estimate distances from truck-generating activities.
Exhibit 97: SCAG Region Centroids
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
220
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
External Truck Trips
•
In the truck model, all of the external truck trips are assigned to an external region. External regions are
defined as counties inside California and states outside of California. The rationale for the structure for
these external regions is that all of the components of a region are accessed by the same set of routes
leading out of and into the SCAG region. These external regions are highly aggregated except in the cases
of counties and states that are very close to the SCAG region. There are 11 external regions representing
the entire United States, as shown below.
Exhibit 98: External Truck Trip Regions
In cases where there is a single route
that would be used to access a given
external region, all of the truck trips
generated by the model to and from
that external region are assigned to a
single external cordon (i.e., a
roadway at the boundary of the
region). In cases where multiple
routing options are available, the
truck trips are allocated to each major
route (i.e. external cordon) in
proportion to the amount of truck
traffic carried by each route (from
Caltrans truck count data). This
allocation is accomplished after the
commodity flows are converted to
truck trips.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
221
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Truck Flow Mileage Matrix
External regions were assigned representative city “centroids”
Exhibit 99: External City Centroids
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
222
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Truck Flow Mileage Matrix
•
Average distances from rail facilities to cordons were also calculated for each internal region. Distances
were based on existing nearby rail facilities for each internal region. Mileages and driving times were
obtained for each combination.
Exhibit 100: Truck Flow Mileage Matrix
LocalLocalVery
Very Low
Low
Diversion
Diversion
THE TIOGA GROUP
Short
Short HaulHaulModerate
Moderate
Diversion
Diversion
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Long
Long HaulHaulHigher
Higher
Diversion
Diversion
223
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Intermodal Mileage Diversion Indices
•Intermodal “users” rated intermodal service higher than non-users in each mileage block
•Intermodal users gave higher market shares to intermodal than the overall average
•The two indices were combined to create a divertability index by mileage block
Exhibit 101: Intermodal Usage Indices
Exhibit 102: Intermodal Index Performance Ratios
1993 Intermodal Index Performance Ratios
Mileage
500
1000
2000
Intermodal Usage Index
Weighted Market Share>500 miles
12%
10%
10%
Overall Avg.
User Avg.
8%
7%
6%
6%
IM
Truck
Ratio (IM/Truck)
3%
2%
2%
2%
0%
1-10%
11-20%
THE TIOGA GROUP
IM
Truck
Ratio (IM/Truck)
21-50%
38%
87%
44%
67%
82%
82%
79%
76%
104%
29%
85%
34%
50%
84%
60%
59%
75%
79%
1.37
1.32
Non-Users
4%
4%
2%
Users
51-100%
User/Nonuser Ratio
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
1.28
224
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Transloading Distance Index
Existing modal shares were used to gauge the probability of diversion in each mileage block
Exhibit 103: Modal Shares and Length of Haul
Modal Shares & Length of Haul
1997 CFS Data for Southern California
100%
0%
0%
0%
2%
3%
95%
5%
90%
12%
85%
3%
4%
Rail Intermodal
Rail Carload
Truckload
80%
75%
<50
50 to 99
THE TIOGA GROUP
100 to 249
250 to 499
500 to 749
750 to 999 1000 to 1499 1500 to 1999
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
2000+
225
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
•
The 19 major HDT commodities over 500,000 tons each were assessed for rail and intermodal divertability.
In the absence of the vast resources necessary to examine even a majority of the individual flows, and
acknowledging the fragmentary nature of the available data, the study team constructed a series of
divertability indexes as proxies. A comparison of CFS national modal shares and estimated SCAG modal
shares was used as a divertability index.
§ Where national (CFS) rail or intermodal shares were higher than SCAG region shares, it was
assumed – other things being equal – that there existed the potential for further diversions of SCAG
region flows.
§ Where national rail or intermodal shares were lower, it was assumed – other things being equal – that
the potential for further diversions in the SCAG region was small.
•
Separate indexes were compiled for:
§ Truckload to intermodal
§ LTL to intermodal
§ TL to rail/transload
•
The commodity-specific indexes were combined with the mileage-based indexes to yield a consolidated
index of divertability that roughly reflected both commodity an demographic variables.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
226
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
“Long-Haul” Truck Commodities
The chart below shows the 19 major commodity groups in year 2000 HDT data for the SCAG region
Exhibit 104: Long-Haul Truck Commodities
Truckload and LTL "Long-Haul" Truck Tonnage
-
5
10
Millions
15
20
Small Packaged Shipments
Food & Kindred Products
Clay, Glass, & Stone Products
Lumber & Wood Products
Field Crops
Chemicals & Products
Petroleum & Coal Products
Pulp & Paper Products
Primary Metal Products
Electrical Equipment
Fabricated Metal Products
Machinery, Etc.
Rubber & Plastic Products
Transportation Equipment
TL
LTL
Printed Matter
Waste & Scrap Materials
All Other
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
227
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 105: Diversion Potential, Small Package Shipments
47 - Small Package Shipments
100%
99%
98%
90%
80%
70%
No Rail
Carload
Potential
60%
50%
Small
Intermodal
Potential
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
1%
2%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
228
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 106: Diversion Potential, Food & Kindred Products
20 - Food & Kindred Products
100%
90%
80%
78%
84%
70%
SCAG Rail
Already
High
60%
50%
Some
Intermodal
Potential
40%
30%
20%
20%
15%
10%
1%
1%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
229
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 107: Diversion Potential, Clay, Glass, & Stone
32 - Clay, Glass, & Stone
100%
90%
80%
73%
70%
SCAG Rail
Potential
High
60%
50%
50%
High
Intermodal
Potential
44%
40%
26%
30%
20%
10%
0%
6%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
230
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 108: Diversion Potential, Lumber & Wood Products
24 - Lumber & Wood Products
100%
90%
80%
70%
High Rail
Potential
70%
70%
60%
50%
40%
26%
30%
High
Intermodal
Potential
30%
20%
10%
0%
4%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
231
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 109: Diversion Potential, Field Crops
1 - Field Crops
100%
90%
80%
70%
67%
SCAG Rail
Already
High
67%
60%
50%
40%
32%
31%
30%
Some
Intermodal
Potential
20%
10%
0%
3%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
232
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 110: Diversion Potential, Chemicals & Products
28 - Chemicals & Products
100%
SCAG Rail
Already High
90%
76%
80%
70%
60%
50%
53%
45%
Some
Intermodal
Potential
40%
30%
18%
20%
10%
2%
6%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
233
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 111: Diversion Potential, Petroleum & Coal Products
29 - Petroleum & Coal Products
100%
90%
SCAG Rail
Already
High
82%
80%
70%
60%
50%
52%
47%
No
Intermodal
Potential
40%
30%
18%
20%
10%
0%
0%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
234
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 112: Diversion Potential, Pulp & Paper Products
26 - Pulp & Paper Products
100%
SCAG Rail
Already
High
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
52%
46%
51%
SCAG
Intermodal
Already
High
46%
40%
30%
20%
10%
3%
2%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
235
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 113: Diversion Potential, Metal Products
33 - Metal Products
100%
90%
81%
80%
73%
70%
SCAG Rail
Already
High
60%
Low
Intermodal
Potential
50%
40%
30%
20%
26%
18%
10%
1%
1%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
236
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 114: Diversion Potential, Electrical Equipment
36 - Electrical Equipment
100%
90%
96%
89%
80%
70%
Low Rail
Potential
60%
50%
SCAG
Intermodal
Already High
40%
30%
20%
10%
3%
2%
8%
2%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
237
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 115: Diversion Potential, Fabricated Metal Products
34 - Fabricated Metal Products
100%
96%
90%
83%
80%
70%
60%
SCAG
Intermodal
Already High
High Rail
Potential
50%
40%
30%
16%
20%
10%
3%
1%
1%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
238
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 116: Diversion Potential, Machinery, Etc.
35 - Machinery, Etc.
100%
96%
90%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Some
Intermodal
Potential
Some Rail
Potential
30%
20%
10%
2%
5%
2%
5%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
239
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 117: Diversion Potential, Rubber & Plastics
30 - Rubber & Plastics
100%
91%
90%
80%
70%
60%
51%
High
Rail
Potential
SCAG
Intermodal
Already High
45%
50%
40%
30%
20%
8%
10%
2%
3%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
240
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 118: Diversion Potential, Transportation Equipment
37 - Transportation Equipment
100%
SCAG Rail
Already High
90%
80%
70%
56%
60%
50%
40%
49%
40%
39%
Some
Intermodal
Potential
30%
20%
11%
4%
10%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
241
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 119: Diversion Potential, Printed Matter
27 - Printed Matter
100%
99%
96%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Some Rail
Potential
40%
Some
Intermodal
Potential
30%
20%
10%
0%
2%
1%
2%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
242
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Commodity Diversion Potential
Exhibit 120: Diversion Potential, Waste & Scrap Materials
40 - Waste & Scrap Materials
100%
90%
SCAG Rail
Already High
80%
70%
60%
50%
51%
56%
48%
42%
40%
Low
Intermodal
Potential
30%
20%
10%
2%
1%
0%
SCAG
Truck
THE TIOGA GROUP
CFS
Truck
SCAG
Rail
CFS Rail SCAG IM
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
CFS IM
243
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Year 2000 Annual Intermodal Diversion Estimates
•
The study team developed an order-of-magnitude estimate for the potential year 2000 diversion form trucks
to intermodal transportation using the methodology described earlier. The potential diversion could be on
the order of 1.6 million annual tons, the equivalent of roughly 72,00 annual truckloads.
•
The largest potential diversions were found in the I-5 corridor, which is by far the most heavily traveled truck
route. Realizing these potential diversions would require successful intermodal; service to Northern
California – a relatively short haul – and the to the Pacific Northwest.
Exhibit 121: Annual Intermodal Diversion Estimates, Year 2000
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
539,956
272,211
26,790
68,769
56,334
22,983
13,012
1,000,056
Annual Tons Diverted by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
Totals
1,620
254,399
99,115
38,760
933,850
371,146
643
67,028
22,959
8,306
47,296
36
11,426
7,295
1,749
127
16,984
7,501
2,961
96,343
119
20,794
12,500
3,116
92,863
24
8,624
4,375
1,204
37,211
31,066
147
13,574
3,168
1,165
2,717
392,829
156,913
57,260
1,609,774
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
24,201
10,765
1,156
3,255
2,433
988
607
43,406
Annual Trucks Diverted by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
Totals
42,503
61
11,846
4,491
1,905
15,597
23
3,245
1,145
419
1
545
370
84
2,156
5
840
375
153
4,629
4,162
4
994
573
157
1,651
1
405
199
59
1,441
5
628
150
51
100
18,501
7,303
2,828
72,139
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
244
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Year 2000 Daily Intermodal Diversion Estimates
•
The potential intermodal diversions would be the rough equivalent of 230 trucks per day, more than half of
which would come from Interstate 5. While this sounds like a significant body of traffic, in fact the reduction
in truck traffic on major freeways would be barely noticeable.
Exhibit 122: Daily Intermodal Diversion Estimates, Year 2000
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
Average Daily Tons Diverted by Cordon Point
I-5 North
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
Totals
2,984
1,725
5
813
317
124
1,186
870
2
214
73
27
86
0
37
23
6
151
308
220
0
54
24
9
297
180
0
66
40
10
73
0
28
14
4
119
99
42
0
43
10
4
3,195
9
1,255
501
183
5,143
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
Average Daily Trucks Diverted by Cordon Point
I-5 North
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
Totals
77
0
38
14
6
136
50
34
0
10
4
1
7
4
0
2
1
0
10
0
3
1
0
15
13
8
0
3
2
1
3
0
1
1
0
5
2
0
2
0
0
5
139
0
59
23
9
230
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
245
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Year 2000 Annual Rail Diversion Estimates
•
The study team estimated potential rail carload diversions through transloading at almost 2 million tons
annually, or the equivalent of almost 90,000 truckloads.
•
Again, the largest diversions would come in the I-5 corridor, where UP and its predecessor SP have both
had carload service initiatives designed to encourage such diversions.
Exhibit 123: Annual Rail Diversion Estimates, Year 2000
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
474,183
207,887
29,523
72,539
61,160
21,057
13,569
879,918
SR14
265
91
6
22
21
3
24
432
Annual Tons Diverted by Cordon Point
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
214,248
424,797
61,829
47,217
84,067
17,701
11,867
41,633
2,316
18,961
33,362
4,415
20,368
57,365
4,538
7,938
20,455
1,838
8,915
14,921
1,677
329,513
676,600
94,314
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
21,424
8,344
1,293
3,559
2,741
941
655
38,956
SR14
10
3
0
1
1
0
1
16
Annual Trucks Diverted by Cordon Point
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
9,968
19,054
2,948
2,233
3,841
854
575
2,101
112
944
1,565
226
967
2,606
224
376
934
91
413
689
75
15,476
30,789
4,530
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Totals
1,175,322
356,962
85,345
129,299
143,451
51,292
39,107
1,980,778
Totals
53,403
15,276
4,081
6,295
6,538
2,341
1,833
89,767
246
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Year 2000 Daily Rail Diversion Estimates
The estimated, order-of-magnitude rail/transload diversions would be the equivalent of about 287 daily trucks
Exhibit 124: Daily Rail Diversion Estimates, Year 2000
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
Average Daily Tons Diverted by Cordon Point
I-5 North
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
Totals
3,755
1,515
1
684
1,357
198
1,140
664
0
151
269
57
273
94
0
38
133
7
232
0
61
107
14
413
458
195
0
65
183
14
164
67
0
25
65
6
125
43
0
28
48
5
2,811
1
1,053
2,162
301
6,328
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
Average Daily Trucks Diverted by Cordon Point
I-5 North
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
Totals
68
0
32
61
9
171
49
27
0
7
12
3
13
4
0
2
7
0
11
0
3
5
1
20
9
0
3
8
1
21
7
3
0
1
3
0
6
2
0
1
2
0
124
0
49
98
14
287
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
247
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Year 2000 Annual Combined Diversion Estimates
•
The combined intermodal and rail transload diversions could reach roughly 3.6 million tons at year 2000
traffic levels, or the annual equivalent of about 162,000 trucks.
Exhibit 125: Annual Combined Diversion Estimates, Year 2000
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
1,014,139
480,097
56,313
141,308
117,494
44,041
26,581
1,879,974
Annual Tons Diverted by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
1,885
468,647
523,912
100,589
734
114,244
107,026
26,007
42
23,293
48,928
4,064
149
35,945
40,863
7,376
140
41,162
69,865
7,653
27
16,562
24,830
3,042
171
22,489
18,089
2,842
3,149
722,342
833,513
151,574
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
45,624
19,109
2,448
6,814
5,174
1,929
1,262
82,362
Annual Trucks Diverted by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
71
21,814
23,545
4,853
27
5,478
4,986
1,273
2
1,120
2,471
196
6
1,784
1,940
379
5
1,960
3,179
382
1
780
1,133
149
6
1,041
839
126
117
33,977
38,092
7,358
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Totals
2,109,173
728,108
132,641
225,641
236,314
88,502
70,173
3,590,552
Totals
95,907
30,873
6,237
10,923
10,700
3,993
3,274
161,906
248
Chapter 8 – Potential Modal Diversions
Year 2000 Daily Combined Diversion Estimates
The daily combined equivalent would be about 517 trucks across all cordon points.
Exhibit 126: Daily Combined Diversion Estimates, Year 2000
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
3,240
1,534
180
451
375
141
85
6,006
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
I-5 North
146
61
8
22
17
6
4
263
THE TIOGA GROUP
Average Daily Tons Diverted by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
6
1,497
1,674
321
2
365
342
83
0
74
156
13
0
115
131
24
0
132
223
24
0
53
79
10
1
72
58
9
10
2,308
2,663
484
Totals
6,739
2,326
424
721
755
283
224
11,471
Average Daily Trucks Diverted by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
Totals
306
0
70
75
16
99
0
18
16
4
0
4
8
1
20
35
0
6
6
1
0
6
10
1
34
13
0
2
4
0
0
3
3
0
10
0
109
122
24
517
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
249
Chapter IX – VMT and Emissions Impacts
THE TIOGA GROUP
Chapter 9 – VMT & Emissions Impacts
VMT and Emissions Methodology
•
The diverted truck VMT and added ton-miles for rail and intermodal shipments were used to estimate
changes in vehicle emissions and fuel consumption.
§ Emissions reductions for trucks were calculated for reactive organic gases, carbon monoxide,
nitrogen oxide, particulate matter (particles greater than 10 microns), hydrocarbons and nitrogen
oxides. Rates from the Air Resources Board (ARB) were applied to the reduction in annual truck
miles to develop gross emissions reductions for the entire region.
§
Rates for rail emissions were also taken from ARB data. Emissions categories for rail include carbon
monoxide, particulate matter, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides. Rail emissions rates are provided
on a per ton-mile basis, and can be directly applied to the ton-mile estimates developed in the
previous section.
§
Calculations for fuel consumption were developed based on 2000 ARB estimates. It was assumed
that all diverted trucks were diesel-powered heavy-heavy or super-heavy duty trucks. This is the
truck class that carries virtually all long haul freight. The diesel miles per gallon in the 2000 ARB
report were multiplied by the truck VMT to estimate the amount of diesel fuel saved by the reduction
in truck mileage.
§
For rail fuel consumption calculations, a report from the Energy Information Administration titled ‘Rail
Freight Transportation Energy Use’ were used as the source for estimates of fuel consumption for
added rail ton-miles. Fuel consumption estimates for rail are made in ton-miles and can be applied
directly to the additional ton-miles to estimate additional fuel used by rail.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
251
Chapter 9 – VMT & Emissions Impacts
Distances to Truck and Rail Cordons
•
Distances were checked for all the combinations of SCAG region centroid and regional cordon point for
both truck (freeway) and rail routes.
§ As shown below, virtually all the rail distances are longer than the truck distances (the exceptions are
mostly due to UP’s Saugus line, which is little used and would carry few diverted moves).
§ The difference is most apparent in the Los Angeles/I-5 North combination, which also accounts for the
largest single body of diverted traffic. There, the railroads must take 196-mile (average) routes out
through San Bernardino and Cajon Pass to reach a common point at Mojave while trucks climb I-5
over Tejon Pass to reach Gorman in just 71 miles.
•
The longer rail routes require more ton-miles to achieve the same transportation purpose, and raise the rail
and intermodal emissions estimates accordingly.
Exhibit 127: Truck and Rail Cordon Distances
Truck and Rail Cordon Point Distances (Miles)
Los Angeles Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
Orange Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
THE TIOGA GROUP
I-5 North
Truck Rail
71 196
75 272
129 149
107 228
115 138
103
99
254 215
SR14
Truck Rail
81
78
95
96
107 145
118 110
92
86
107 153
157 163
I-15 North
Truck Rail
243 283
278 360
204 236
227 315
194 225
103 159
254 302
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
I-10
Truck Rail
253 247
299 324
201 200
248 279
200 189
224 293
125 112
I-40
Truck Rail
273
255
322
331
249
208
272
287
238
197
127
149
201
274
252
Chapter 9 – VMT & Emissions Impacts
Rail Transloading VMT Reduction Example
•
A San Bernardino Co.to I-10 Region transloading diversion to rail would save 189 truck miles but incur 200
rail miles, a net increase in ton-miles. This increase must be offset by significantly lower units emissions
from rail service..
•
Most of the truck VMT saved would be on the less congested portions of I-10 to the east.
Exhibit 128: Rail Transloading VMT Reduction Example
189 highway
miles from San
Bernardino Co.
centroid to I-10
cordon point
200 miles form San
Bernardino to the I10 rail cordon
point at Yuma
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
253
Chapter 9 – VMT & Emissions Impacts
Rail Transloading VMT Impacts
•
VMT reductions were estimated for each combination of SCAG region segment and external region. Each
mileage calculation extended only to the regional cordon.
•
Since the high-volume I-5 corridor also has a shorter cordon distance (e.g. 71 miles from LA Co.) than I-15,
I-10, or I-40 corridors (ranging from 243-273 miles from LA Co.), the VMT estimates are not as heavily
weighted toward I-5 as the truck counts or tonnage estimates.
Exhibit 129: Rail Transloading VMT Impacts
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
THE TIOGA GROUP
I-5 North
2,244,465
1,482,926
147,617
623,832
468,892
210,013
171,788
5,349,534
I-5 North
7,171
4,738
472
1,993
1,498
671
549
17,091
Annual Truck VMT Reduction by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
1,432
3,470,820
7,164,909 1,125,296
711
714,545
1,389,908
320,978
39
219,931
829,882
49,713
156
257,870
447,056
73,282
127
263,428
764,866
71,999
23
54,399
305,327
15,538
251
150,961
124,343
22,474
2,740
5,131,954
11,026,290 1,679,280
Average Daily Truck VMT Reduction by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
5
11,089
22,891
3,595
2
2,283
4,441
1,025
0
703
2,651
159
0
824
1,428
234
0
842
2,444
230
0
174
975
50
1
482
397
72
9
16,396
35,228
5,365
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Totals
14,006,923
3,909,069
1,247,181
1,402,196
1,569,312
585,300
469,817
23,189,798
Totals
44,751
12,489
3,985
4,480
5,014
1,870
1,501
74,089
254
Chapter 9 – VMT & Emissions Impacts
Intermodal VMT Reduction Example
•
An intermodal diversion from San Bernardino Co. to I-40 Region would reduce truck VMT by 228 miles (238
miles less 10 miles for drayage).
•
Note, however, that the 10-mile “overlap” between over-the-road trucking and drayage is in the more
congested urban portion while much of the VMT savings is in the less congested highway mileage to the
northeast.
Exhibit 130: Intermodal VMT Reduction Example
10 miles from
Fontana to
Intermodal
Ramp
THE TIOGA GROUP
238 miles from
Fontana to I-40
cordon point
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
255
Chapter 9 – VMT & Emissions Impacts
Intermodal VMT Impacts
•
The intermodal VMT impacts were adjusted for drayage requirements.
Exhibit 131: Intermodal VMT Impacts
SCAG Region
I-5 North
Los Angeles Co.
1,979,840
Orange Co.
1,446,346
Ventura Co.
20,717
Riverside Co.
481,385
San Bernardino Co.
394,339
Victor Valley
194,746
Coachella Valley
101,494
Total
4,618,867
* Adjusted for drayage requirements
SCAG Region
I-5 North
Los Angeles Co.
6,325
Orange Co.
4,621
Ventura Co.
66
Riverside Co.
1,538
San Bernardino Co.
1,260
Victor Valley
622
Coachella Valley
324
Total
14,757
* Adjusted for drayage requirements
THE TIOGA GROUP
Annual Net* Truck VMT Reduction by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
7,031
3,849,902
1,566,018
664,086
3,865
892,360
337,802
135,498
77
163,472
114,586
30,147
702
203,803
88,511
44,420
656
249,525
147,499
46,736
135
46,168
58,737
8,373
830
163,886
11,004
9,945
13,296
5,569,118
2,324,158
939,205
Average Daily Truck VMT Reduction by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
22
12,300
5,003
2,122
12
2,851
1,079
433
0
522
366
96
2
651
283
142
2
797
471
149
0
148
188
27
3
524
35
32
42
17,793
7,425
3,001
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Totals
8,066,877
2,815,871
329,000
818,821
838,755
308,159
287,159
13,464,643
Totals
25,773
8,996
1,051
2,616
2,680
985
917
43,018
256
Chapter 9 – VMT & Emissions Impacts
Combined VMT Impacts
•
The combined rail transloading/carload and intermodal VMT impacts are shown below.
Exhibit 132: Combined VMT Impacts
SCAG Region
I-5 North
Los Angeles Co.
4,224,306
Orange Co.
2,929,272
Ventura Co.
168,335
Riverside Co.
1,105,217
San Bernardino Co.
863,231
Victor Valley
404,759
Coachella Valley
273,281
Total
9,968,401
* Adjusted for drayage requirements
SCAG Region
I-5 North
Los Angeles Co.
13,496
Orange Co.
9,359
Ventura Co.
538
Riverside Co.
3,531
San Bernardino Co.
2,758
Victor Valley
1,293
Coachella Valley
873
Total
31,848
* Adjusted for drayage requirements
THE TIOGA GROUP
Annual Net* Truck VMT Reduction by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
8,463
7,320,723
8,730,928
1,789,382
4,576
1,606,906
1,727,710
456,476
116
383,403
944,468
79,860
858
461,674
535,566
117,702
783
512,953
912,366
118,735
158
100,567
364,063
23,911
1,081
314,847
135,347
32,420
16,036
10,701,072
13,350,448
2,618,485
Average Daily Net* Truck VMT Reduction by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
27
23,389
27,894
5,717
15
5,134
5,520
1,458
0
1,225
3,017
255
3
1,475
1,711
376
3
1,639
2,915
379
1
321
1,163
76
3
1,006
432
104
51
34,189
42,653
8,366
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Totals
22,073,800
6,724,940
1,576,181
2,221,017
2,408,067
893,459
756,976
36,654,441
Totals
70,523
21,485
5,036
7,096
7,694
2,855
2,418
117,107
257
Chapter 9 – VMT & Emissions Impacts
Emissions Parameters
•
OTR truck emissions vary with driving conditions
•
Line-haul rail emissions are generally much lower than OTR truck, but intermodal NOx emissions are higher
•
The longer rail hauls noted earlier reduce rail’s emissions advantage.
Exhibit 133: Emissions Parameters
Sample Emissions Comparison: Grams per Net Ton-Mile
1999
CO
NOx
Truck*
Los Angeles
0.392
1.278
Orange
0.304
1.204
Riverside
0.324
1.236
San Bernardino
0.344
1.253
Average
0.366
1.259
* example at 15 net tons per vehicle
2020
CO2
PM10
CO
NOx
CO2
PM10
0.143
0.143
0.141
0.142
0.143
0.057
0.049
0.050
0.053
0.054
0.143
0.141
0.146
0.142
0.143
0.498
0.503
0.504
0.504
0.499
0.144
0.144
0.142
0.143
0.144
0.031
0.029
0.019
0.030
0.030
HC
0.018
0.025
0.047
PM
0.016
0.022
0.036
1999
Rail
Carload
Intermodal
Local
CO
0.075
0.106
0.195
THE TIOGA GROUP
NOx
1.039
1.44
2.45
2020
HC
0.03
0.041
0.078
PM
0.027
0.037
0.062
CO
0.061
0.086
0.158
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
NOx
0.427
0.591
1.006
258
Chapter 9 – VMT & Emissions Impacts
Combined Emissions Impacts
•
The combined rail carload and intermodal diversion VMT and ton-mile changes were used to estimate the
net change in comparable emissions factors. Note that not all of the factors listed could be estimated for
both modes from the available literature.
•
The factors located and used for this study, when applied to the diversion estimates, indicate a net
decrease in CO and PM10/PM emissions, but higher NOx emissions.
Exhibit 134: Combined Emissions Impacts
1999/2000 Emissions Impacts
Rail
Drayage
Rail IM
Carload
Increase
Increase
Increase
Truck
Reduction
ROG
CO
NOx
CO2
PM10/PM
HC
93,702
434,817
1,496,531
169,567
64,529
na
THE TIOGA GROUP
4,930
22,875
78,731
8,921
3,395
na
na
77,892
1,058,154
na
27,189
30,128
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
na
71,756
994,058
na
25,832
28,702
Net
Change
na
(262,294)
634,412
na
(8,113)
na
259
Chapter X - Findings and Implications
THE TIOGA GROUP
Chapter 10 – Findings and Implications
Summary Findings
Surface freight transportation via truck and rail will be vital to the SCAG region under any current and future
scenario. The efficiency of freight transportation affects the prospects for regional job creation, the strength of
the local economy,
The trucking industry is facing difficult times in Southern California and elsewhere. Congestion, costs, and
periodic driver shortages are all increasing.
Diversion of truckload and LTL traffic to rail carload, transload, or intermodal service is a logical step to promote
long-term efficiency and minimize congestion and emissions.
§ Increased carload rail service would reduce congestion and emissions, but has practical access and
logistics limits
§ Truck-rail transloading has significant potential to increase the use of rail carload service for line-haul
freight transportation and decrease truck VMT and emissions on regional highways. Due to the need for
local pick up and delivery, however, transloading may not reduce the number of local/urban truck trips.
§ Intermodal transportation likewise has significant potential to mitigate emissions and congestion on major
interregional access routes. The intermodal industry has already been successful in serving the long-haul
markets to and from the SCAG region, and there may be limits to further marker penetration. Again, the
need for local/urban pick up and delivery trips would remain.
§ The regional rail network has reserve capacity at present, but there are limits on the ability of the rail
network to expand service. Railroads will be reluctant to devote scarce capacity and capital to shorterhaul traffic.
Diversion of truck traffic to rail, therefore, is a positive step but not a cure-all.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
261
Chapter 10 – Findings and Implications
Regional Trucking Outlook
The trucking industry is facing difficult times in Southern California and elsewhere.
Increased congestion is a double-edged sword:
§ By forcing trucking firms and their drivers to take more time for the same transportation service,
congestion cuts productivity and raises costs.
§ By lengthening delivery times and diminishing reliability, congestion hurts trucking service quality at
the same time customers are demanding “better, faster, and cheaper” service.
§ Freight movement growth and longer trips times due to congestion require more truck drivers at the
same time the population pool of eligible drivers is shrinking and better employment options are
growing.
§ Congestion increases fuel use and emissions at the same time diesel trucks are being held to more
stringent emissions standards and fuel prices are increasing
Existing plans and programs would not make appreciable improvements in trucking conditions.
§ Major regional truck routes are approaching capacity limits and will require substantial investments to
keep trucks and autos moving at acceptable service levels.
§ The overall feasibility, cost, and performance of exclusive truck lanes is still open to question, as
analysis has only been completed one one route.
§ The vast majority of goods-related investments and improvements contemplated in the 2002 SCAG
Regional Transportation Improvement Plan are aimed at railroad grade crossings or conventional
highway and street improvements that benefit autos as well as trucks.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
262
Chapter 10 – Findings and Implications
Carload Service Potential
•
Carload rail service (as opposed to intermodal service) is best suited to:
§ Bulk movements of raw materials (coal, grain, aggregates)
§ “Pipeline” movement of industrial products (steel, chemicals, lumber)
•
Direct carload service requires direct rail access, and is largely limited to major manufacturing and
processing plants such as refineries, auto assembly plants, power plants, etc.
•
Carload service, and unit train service in particular, will continue to grow with the customer base of heavy
industrial activity, but is unlikely to attract new customers unless new plants are built with rail access
•
The potential for diversion of truckload traffic to direct carload service is therefore very limited, and rests
with the initiatives of the railroads and their customers.
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
263
Chapter 10 – Findings and Implications
Rail/Truck Transloading Potential
•
It is estimated that rail/truck transloading could divert on the order of 132,000 annual long-haul trucks from
regional highways and reduce truck VMT by over 23 million at year 2000 traffic levels.
§ The potential for conversion of truckload movements to rail carload service lies almost exclusively in
transloading rather than direct carload access.
§ This finding is consistent with the commercial initiatives of both railroads, who have increased their
transloading activity and marketing in recent years.
•
Transloading would have favorable impacts on truck VMT and emissions
§ Since transloading converts multiple truckloads in to a smaller number of rail carloads, the impact on
VMT and emissions is potentially greater.
§ Transloading is best conducted through numerous local and regional sites, and does not exhibit the
same economies of scale and service that require large regional intermodal terminals. The
requirement for local pick-up and delivery truck trips could therefore be lower.
•
Since the industrial products typically transloaded are less time-sensitive than intermodal shipments,
railroads have additional flexibility in using their line capacity and operating windows.
Exhibit 135: Rail/Truck Transloading Potential
SCAG Region
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Total
THE TIOGA GROUP
I-5 North
2,244,465
1,482,926
147,617
623,832
468,892
210,013
171,788
5,349,534
Annual Truck VMT Reduction by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
1,432
3,470,820
7,164,909 1,125,296
711
714,545
1,389,908
320,978
39
219,931
829,882
49,713
156
257,870
447,056
73,282
127
263,428
764,866
71,999
23
54,399
305,327
15,538
251
150,961
124,343
22,474
2,740
5,131,954
11,026,290 1,679,280
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Totals
14,006,923
3,909,069
1,247,181
1,402,196
1,569,312
585,300
469,817
23,189,798
264
Chapter 10 – Findings and Implications
Rail Intermodal Potential
•
Diversion of long-haul truckload and LTL traffic to rail intermodal service could divert on the order of
107,000 annual trucks and over 13 million VMT from regional highways at year 2000 traffic levels.
•
The long-haul corridors linking the SCAG region with the rest of the nation are already among the most
successful and busiest intermodal routes, with higher intermodal market shares than the national average.
§ The SCAG region already has some of the nation's busiest intermodal facilities. The expected growth
in rail intermodal traffic generated at San Pedro Bay ports will tax both intermodal terminals and
linehaul capacity on both railroads.
§ Both railroads, and their predecessors, have encouraged diversion of Southern California truck traffic
to intermodal. There is a significant history of marketing and service initiatives aimed at increasing
intermodal market share sin Southern California.
§ Truckload and LTL motor carriers already use intermodal transportation to an appreciable extent to
serve Southern California
§ Given the large expected increase in high-revenue, long-haul international traffic, railroads will be
disinclined to dedicate or add capacity for low-revenue, short-haul intermodal business.
•
While both railroads continue to pursue greater domestic intermodal market share, it would be overly
optimistic to expect dramatic increases.
Exhibit 136: Rail Intermodal Potential
SCAG Region
Annual Net* Truck VMT Reduction by Cordon Point
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
I-5 North
Los Angeles Co.
1,979,840
Orange Co.
1,446,346
Ventura Co.
20,717
Riverside Co.
481,385
San Bernardino Co.
394,339
Victor Valley
194,746
Coachella Valley
101,494
Total
4,618,867
* Adjusted for drayage requirements
THE TIOGA GROUP
7,031
3,865
77
702
656
135
830
13,296
3,849,902
892,360
163,472
203,803
249,525
46,168
163,886
5,569,118
1,566,018
337,802
114,586
88,511
147,499
58,737
11,004
2,324,158
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
664,086
135,498
30,147
44,420
46,736
8,373
9,945
939,205
Totals
8,066,877
2,815,871
329,000
818,821
838,755
308,159
287,159
13,464,643
265
Chapter 10 – Findings and Implications
Congestion Implications for Intermodal Transportation
•
Intermodal transportation requires drayage for pick-up and delivery. Where drayage moves travel the same
urban freeways as the truck trips they might replace, there is little net savings in either truck trips or
emissions.
•
The major Los Angeles intermodal facilities are centrally located, as shown below. While this maximizes
their market coverage and concentrates traffic volume, it also requires drayage trips over some of the most
congested regional routes.
•
Creating a series of intermodal facilities in outlying areas might disperse and shorten the drayage trips. The
current BNSF and proposed UP facilities in the Inland Empire are examples. A balance must be struck,
however, between the advantages of dispersed intermodal terminals and the need to assemble sufficient
volume for frequent service.
Exhibit 137: Intermodal Congestion Implications
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
266
Chapter 10 – Findings and Implications
The congestion “taper” limits the benefits of intermodal diversions
•
Truck and auto traffic volumes on regional highways are heaviest near the regions center and “taper”
towards the edges, as illustrated below.
•
The majority of the truck VMT saved through diversion to intermodal would be in the outlying areas, since
the intermodal options still requires drayage in the central regions.
•
For example, on an intermodal trip between Fontana and the I-10 cordon point, most of the VMT saved
would be east of Beaumont, where there is much less truck traffic to begin with.
Exhibit 138: Truck Volume “Taper” on I-10
28,000/day
at Fontana
14,000/day
at Beaumont
3,000/day at Blythe
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
267
Chapter 10 – Findings and Implications
Short-Haul diversion potential is constrained by rail circuity
•
Rail routes to regional boundaries (cordon points) are significantly longer than highway routes in many
instances
•
The largest potential short-haul market is between the SCAG Region and Northern California, along the I-5
corridor. The primary rail route to the north, paralleling Interstate 5, is through Cajon Pass, which is an
average of 63 miles longer than the highway route to the regional boundary. The most important part of the
SCAG region is Los Angeles County, for which the circuitry adds over 100 miles on trips to Bakersfield and
beyond. Since the distances to Northern California markets are typically 400-600 miles, the rail route is
about 20% longer.
•
The other routes have less circuity, both as an absolute distance and as a percentage.
§ The rail route (UP’s Saugus line) to the SR14 market in Lancaster/Palmdale is only slightly longer
than the highway, but the total distance is too short to make rail advantageous without very special
circumstances.
§ For the I-15 corridor the largest short-haul market is almost certainly Las Vegas, which is 285 miles
from Los Angeles by highway but 315 miles by rail. The difference makes it difficult for rail or
intermodal options to be fully competitive on both cost and service.
§ The I-10 and I-40 corridors have relatively little rail circuity, and in some combinations rail is shorter.
Exhibit 139: Truck and Rail Cordon Point Miles
Truck and Rail Cordon Point Distances (Miles)
Los Angeles Co.
Ventura Co.
Riverside Co.
Orange Co.
San Bernardino Co.
Victor Valley
Coachella Valley
Avg. Rail Circuity
Avg. % Circuity
THE TIOGA GROUP
I-5 North
SR14
I-15 North
I-10
I-40
Truck Rail Truck Rail Truck Rail Truck Rail Truck Rail
71 196
81
78
243 283
253 247
273 255
75 272
95
96
278 360
299 324
322 331
129 149
107 145
204 236
201 200
249 208
107 228
118 110
227 315
248 279
272 287
115 138
92
86
194 225
200 189
238 197
103
99
107 153
103 159
224 293
127 149
254 215
157 163
254 302
125 112
201 274
63
11
54
13
3
52%
10%
25%
6%
1%
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
268
Chapter 10 – Findings and Implications
Regional Railroad Capacity
•
The regional rail network has reserve capacity for traffic that might be diverted from the highway, but there
are competing uses for that capacity
•
High Capacity Lines
§ The major main lines serving the SCAG region are high-capacity routes with reserve capacity,
although prioritization will be necessary.
§ When traffic has grown, railroads have typically invested in higher capacity to handle it.
§ Railroads ordinarily give priority to long-haul traffic with higher revenue potential over shorter-haul
traffic with lower yield
•
Competing Demand
§ The growth of the Southern California economy and the portions of that economy engaged in largescale manufacturing and processing imply a long-term need for rail carload service.
§ The existing Southern California domestic intermodal market is growing, with concomitant demands
for both capacity and service
§ The largest single engine of intermodal growth is international trade though the San Pedro Bay ports,
which could absorb most or all of the existing excess rail system capacity
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
269
Chapter 10 – Findings and Implications
Public Support for Rail Capacity and Facilities
•
Where the potential for traffic and emissions mitigation is constrained by rail capacity, a case can be made
for public sector support.
•
Truck diversion potential is greatest in “short-haul” rail corridors
§ The largest volume of “long-haul” trucks are in trips under 500 miles, which is “short-haul” lowrevenue traffic for the railroads.
§ The largest potential diversions of SCAG region truck traffic are in the I-5 corridor, where short-haul
rail carload/transload and intermodal traffic has difficulty competing due to geography.
§ Although the railroads recognize the potential and have taken the initiative to market their services in
the I-5 corridor, market penetration has been small.
•
Both intermodal and transloading services require investment in facilities
§ Existing intermodal facilities are nearing capacity, and their expansion potential in existing sites is
limited.
§ Transloading facilities are primarily private concerns, but their development has been supported by
the railroads to some extent
•
Public capital or operating support may be required to realize the potential for short-haul truck diversions.
§ Railroads cannot be expected to devote scarce line and terminal capacity to short-haul opportunities
without adequate returns.
§ The public benefits of additions to rail line and terminal capacity may be justified by the potential for
truck traffic diversions.
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Chapter V – Intermodal Freight Transportation
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal Transportation Overview
•
Intermodal is an attempt to combine the best features of multiple modes, using rail for the linehaul and truck
for the pickup and delivery. The truckers define intermodal as “truck and something else”, and they are not
far wrong.
§ Railroads have traditionally dominated long-haul transportation of heavy freight.
§ Trucks handle shorter hauls and more valuable or time-sensitive freight.
§ Air freight carries the smallest, most valuable, and most urgent freight.
§ “Intermodal” transportation uses multiple modes and attempts to combine their advantages.
§ Railroads are the most efficient long-haul mode over land.
§ Ocean carriers move containers efficiently between ports.
§ Trucks provide the most efficient pick-up and delivery system.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal technology and operations blend rail, marine, and truck
modes
•
Containerization revolutionized marine transport starting in the
late 1950s. Containerizing cargo and handling full containers
instead of boxes, crates, and barrels led to dramatic increases in
vessel and port productivity and reduced loss and damage. The
change on the rails was earlier and less dramatic, but intermodal
has effectively replaced most of the merchandise traffic formerly
carried in box cars and express equipment.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal Service Types
•
The basic intermodal units are either trailers or containers moving inland by rail. The intermodal label can
also be applied to transloading operations shifting freight from one mode to another.The key feature of
traditional intermodal moves in trailers or containers is that the unit stays sealed from door to door.
•
“Intermodal” is sometimes used to describe passenger movements by multiple modes, but as used in this
report refers exclusively to freight.
A
A domestic
domestic trailer
trailer or
or container
container that
that
moves
partly
by
rail
moves partly by rail
An
An international
international container
container that
that
moves
inland
by
rail
moves inland by rail
US
US Public
Public Policy
Policy
Passengers
Passengers or
or freight
freight moving
moving by
by
more
more than
than one
one mode
mode
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Railroads move intermodal trailers and containers on specialized
railcars
Containers are the most efficient units because they can leave the wheels behind.
§ Light-weight, high-capacity “double-stack” cars move most international and domestic containers.
Two-man crews can move over two hundred forty-foot containers in a single train at 40-06 mph with a
very smooth ride.
§ Double-stack cars are the most efficient way to carry intermodal freight. Containers can be stacked
two-high to create a train that is almost all payload.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Railroads move intermodal trailers and containers on specialized
railcars
•
Trailers move on light-weight “spine cars” or older style flatcars. The industry has been predicting the
demise of “piggyback” trailers for years, but they are still in use. They now move more and more often on
lightweight articulated cars that improve both efficiency and ride quality. Spine cars are more efficient than
flatcars, but not as efficient as double-stacks.
•
Fifteen years ago, damage due to rough riding and rough handing in freight yards was a major problem for
intermodal shippers. With both containers and trailers moving primarily on these articulated cars and
staying out of freight yards, the damage problems have been drastically reduced and damage is no longer
an issue for most intermodal shippers.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal “Overhead”
•
Terminal and drayage costs are intermodal “overhead” that must be offset by a long efficient linehaul trip to be time and cost competitive with over-the-road trucking. In order to be cost competitive,
intermodal needs a long length of haul at low rail linehaul costs to spread or amortize those local trucking
and terminal costs. The result is a strong competitive position over about 1000 miles and real cost
advantages as the distance grows.
•
Line-haul rail intermodal service is very efficient compared to over-the-road( OTR) trucking:
•
Reduced friction and lower fuel use per ton-mile
•
Lower labor cost per ton-mile
•
Line-haul average speeds are similar, about 40 MPH
•
Truck-rail intermodal options, however, require drayage and terminal services at both ends of the move.
•
Drayage costs $50 to $250 on each end, or $100 to $500 in total
•
Terminal costs are typically $30 to $50 at each end, or $60 to $100 per move.
•
Drayage and terminal handling add 8-24 hours of time compared to OTR truckload service.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal “drayage” firms pick up and deliver trailers and
containers
•
Intermodal shipments move from city to city by rail, but the initial pickup and final delivery are truck move.
The local or regional truckers who handle this business are called drayage or cartage firms.
§ The best of these firms are professional truckers in business for the long term.
§ Most drayage firms use owner-operators who supply tractors and drivers.
§ Many drayage firms offer contract trucking, warehousing, and other ancillary services.
§ Drayage is highly competitive, and customers tend to choose drayman based on price.
§ The drayage industry is fragmented, and vulnerable to outside pressure.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Trailers and containers are transferred between modes at intermodal
terminals
•
Intermodal terminals (sometimes still called “piggyback
ramps”) transfer trailers and containers between trains and
trucks.
§ There were formerly over a thousand primitive
“piggyback ramps” all over the country. Now there are
about 250 mechanized terminals in major hub cities.
§ Most of the terminals are actually operated by
specialized contractors. The equipment they use can
unload a container or trailer from a rail car in about two
minutes.
§ Terminal operators use gantry cranes and side-loaders
to load and unload trains.
•
Intermodal terminals must be efficient to compete. Over-theroad truckload carriers do not need terminals, so every dollar
of terminal cost and every hour of terminal time is a handicap
that intermodal must overcome to compete with truckload
carriers
THE TIOGA GROUP
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal has only a small share of U.S. intercity commercial freight
revenue
•
In the huge mass of U.S. freight movements intermodal pays a relative small part, about 3% of commercial
intercity freight. In movements of less than 750 miles intermodal has almost no presence.The share is much
higher at longer hauls, being closer to about 15% at 1000-1500 miles.
Domestic Water
Pipeline
3%
3%
Truckload
12%
61%
11%
Small Package
Surface/Air
Rail Carload
Exhibit 56: Intermodal
Market Share
7%
Source: Transportation in America 1998
3%
Intermodal
LTL Trucking
Total Freight Bill (1997) - $328 Billion
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Where does intermodal fit in the supply chain?
•
Intermodal transportation bridges the gap between rail carload service and over-the-road trucking,a and that
it can offer an attractive alternative for many kinds of freight in many kinds of businesses.
•
On both the cost scale and the service spectrum intermodal lies between rail carload service and long-haul
truckload service. It is faster and more expensive than a boxcar, but slower and cheaper than a truck.
§ Intermodal transportation occupies a gap between rail carload service and long-haul trucking.
§ Intermodal is a long-haul mode with moderate speed and reliability.
§ Intermodal can provide competitive alternatives to long-haul rail carload and motor carrier services.
§ Intermodal is best suited for intermediate products, inventory replenishment, and business-tobusiness shipments.
§ Terminal location and performance is critical on both ends of the move.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal fills a price/service gap between rail carload and truckload
transportation
Exhibit 57: Intermodal Service Comparison
High
Conceptual
Conceptual
Small Package Surface/Air
LTL
Truckload
Price
Intermodal
Rail
Carload
Barge/Coastal
Pipeline
Low
Low
THE TIOGA GROUP
Service (Speed/Reliability/Flexibility)
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
High
123
Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal transportation is a long-haul business
•
Intermodal has very little presence in lanes of less than 750miles, and almost none under 500 miles. The
busiest intermodal lane in between Los Angeles and Chicago, about 2000 miles. From Southern California,
intermodal is typically competitive for traffic moving to or from points East of the Rockies.
Exhibit 58: Local and Intermodal Markets
PNW
PNW
UpperMW
UpperMW
UpperMW
UpperMW
LOCAL
LOCAL
Nev
Cal/
Cal/
Nev
MidRockies
MidRockies
Neutral
NeutralEast
East
INTERMODAL
INTERMODAL
SoWest
SoWest
South
South
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
The “breakeven” mileage for intermodal vs. truck is 700-1000 miles
A cost analysis verifies the impact of distance.
§ Intermodal has relatively high pickup and delivery costs and has terminal costs that truckload carriers
do not have to pay at all.
§ In order to be cost competitive, intermodal needs a long length of haul at low rail linehaul costs to
spread or amortize those local trucking and terminal costs.
§ The result is a strong competitive position over about 1000 miles and real cost advantages as the
distance grows.
Exhibit 59: Intermodal Breakeven Zone
$ Cost
Per Ton
Conceptual
Conceptual
Truckload
Intermodal
Rail Carload
Rail Unit
Train
Breakeven Zone
200
THE TIOGA GROUP
400
600
800
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Distance in Miles
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
125
Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal’s Role in the Supply Chain
•
Customers use intermodal for..
Intermediate industrial products
§ “Dry” freight
§ Durable, non-fragile freight (e.g. appliances, canned goods)
§ Industrial materials and supplies (e.g. wire, fasteners, auto parts)
Inventory replenishment
§ Factory-to-distribution center shipments
§ Repetitive “pipeline” freight flows
Business-to-business shipments
•
Customers typically do not use intermodal for…
§ Short hauls
§ Claims-prone freight: fragile or temperature-sensitive freight, or high-value merchandise
§ Time-sensitive loads: seasonal or fashion merchandise, or “shut-down” loads
§ Retail or consumer shipments
•
A large portion of consumer shipments generated in e-commerce, however, will travel via intermodal. UPS
is the biggest intermodal customer, and the US Postal Service is another major user, especially through its
contractors. To the extent that UPS Ground and the Postal Service deliver what is ordered over the
internet, much of it will move via intermodal.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal speed and reliability can vary
•
Intermodal is at its best:
§ In single-line lanes, where there is no potential for delays or errors making connections
§ Where lane volumes justify multiple daily departures
§ Between terminals that are efficient and responsive.
•
Intermodal service failures, however, often result in a long delay rather than a matter of a few minutes.
§ Trains can be delayed by anywhere form a few minutes to several hours
§ Connections between railroads can be inconsistent
§ Terminals can fail to get the train unloaded in time, fail to load the desired unit on the first train, or
they can misplace the unit in the parking lot.
§ Careless handling can put the unit out of service until a tire is replaced or a light fixed, and the
drayage driver will have to wait.
•
For these reasons, many experienced intermodal customers build in an extra day in the schedule and let
the unit sit at the destination terminal if need be. This practice congests the terminals, but too often the
slack is needed to provide consistent delivery.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Drayage and Terminals can make or break intermodal’s advantages
•
The location and quality of the local intermodal terminal has a substantial impact on intermodal economics
and service quality.
§ Drayage and terminal costs are a large part of the total intermodal cost.
§ Terminal delays, rough handling, and mistakes are a major cause of unreliability and claims.
§ Drayage distance (“stem time”) to and from terminals determines where intermodal can compete.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal is more competitive with truck when drayage distances
are short
•
The total cost of intermodal includes a large portion of drayage expense, and if it is too far to the nearest
terminal the economics become unfavorable.
§ In the diagram, Shipper A is 1800 miles from the consignee and truckload service would cost about
$1800. With a $100 dray at origin, a $1300 linehaul, and a $150 dray at destination, intermodal would
cost only $1550.
§ Shipper B, also 1800 miles from the consignee, is 100 miles from the origin intermodal terminal. The
higher drayage cost at origin pushes the intermodal cost to $1750, nearly the same as the $1800
trucking cost.
Shipper A
25
25 miles
miles
$100
$100
1700
1700 miles
miles
$1300
$1300
Origin
Intermodal
Terminal
100
100 miles
miles
$300
$300
Receiver
1800
1800 miles
miles
$1800
$1800
Destination
Intermodal
Terminal
50
50 miles
miles
$150
$150
Exhibit 60: Drayage Cost Impacts
1800
1800 miles
miles
$1800
$1800
Shipper B
THE TIOGA GROUP
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Direct truck, 1800 miles =
$1800
Rail linehaul, 1700 miles
= $1300
Local Drayage
25 miles $100
50 miles $150
100 miles $300
129
Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
At longer drayage distances, intermodal is less competitive
•
Shipper C would pay substantially more for intermodal than for truck.
§ For Shipper C, direct truck is $2000 but intermodal is uncompetitive at $1300+$650+$150=$2100 due
to very long drayage at origin.
§ A 400-mile dray for a 1700 mile line-haul is not economical.
Origin
Intermodal
Terminal
1700
1700 miles
miles
$1300
$1300
400
400 miles
miles
$650
$650
Receiver
Destination
Intermodal
Terminal
50
50 miles
miles
$150
$150
Exhibit 61: Drayage Cost Impacts
2000
2000 miles
miles
$2000
$2000
Direct truck, 2000 miles = $2000
Rail linehaul, 1700 miles = $1300
Local Drayage
50 miles $150
400 miles $650
Shipper C
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal terminals are concentrated in major metropolitan markets
and “gateway” states
•
The map below indicates which markets are most accessible. Intermodal facilities are clustered in the major
metropolitan areas, and at the traditional rail gateways of Chicago, St Louis, Kansas City, Memphis, and
New Orleans.
Exhibit 62: US Intermodal Terminals
7
2
4
1
4
1
5
1
3
Eastern Canada - 5
Eastern Canada - 5
Central Canada - 8
Central Canada - 8
Western
WesternCanada
Canada- -24
24
1
2
2
2
1
15
8
2
7
2
3
8
24
3
18
4
5
5
2
7
7
2
3
7
3
3
1
5
4
7
Mexico - 15
Mexico - 15
11
Source: 1998 Official Intermodal Guide, IANA, TMM
THE TIOGA GROUP
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal Terminals and Service
•
The growth of intermodal traffic, the enormous influx of double-stack trains and marine containers, and the
even more recent entry and rapid growth of rail-truckload initiatives all raise questions about the adequacy
of intermodal terminals to handle traffic increases, and to do so efficiently.
•
In the 1980s railroads consolidated their intermodal service networks into fewer, larger hub terminals.
§ Railroads saw an opportunity to consolidate facilities duplicated in mergers, a need to consolidate
enough volume in one location to justify lift machines, and a tendency for smaller facilities to be
unbalanced and therefore unprofitable.
§
Most terminals handling less than 1000-1500 lifts per month were closed, and the capital spending
which increased hub terminal capacity in the 1980s was justified by operational advantages
associated with mechanization and consolidation.
•
The issues now facing railroads are different, and the challenge facing the industry is to find capacity for
future dramatic growth. It is not clear that indefinite expansion of large hubs is optimal, or even reasonable.
The alternatives include increasing productivity at existing ramps, building new facilities, and rationalizing
the use of terminals.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal is composed of several distinct market segments
•
Almost none of the traffic is tendered directly by the beneficial owners of the goods. Virtually all intermodal
traffic is tendered by either other carriers, such as steamship lines or truckers, or by intermediaries.
§ The largest single customer is UPS, and has been for many years. A very large share of all longdistance UPS ground shipments move via intermodal.
§ The Postal Service, directly and through its contractors, is also a major intermodal customer.
Exhibit 63: Intermodal Participants
International
Containers
Domestic Third-party
37%
39%
Note
Notethat
thatall
allthese
these
are
intermediaries,
are intermediaries,
not
notthe
theowners
ownersofofthe
the
goods
goods
Domestic Specialty
LTL Motor Carriers
2%
4%
4%
US Postal Service
10%
4%
Domestic Truckload
Carriers
United Parcel
Service (UPS)
Source: Mercer 1992
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal transportation involves many players in complex
combinations
•
There is a very good reason why all the traffic comes from carriers or intermediaries rather than from actual
shippers and receivers: complexity
Exhibit 64: Complex Intermodal Transactions
Receiver
Receiver
Shipper
Shipper
Third
Third Party
Party Retailer
Retailer
Sales and
Customer
Service
Transportation
Stack
Stack Train
Train Operator
Operator
Railroad
Railroad
Origin
Origin
Drayage
Drayage
Companies
Companies
Terminal
Terminal
Operators
Operators
Linehaul
Linehaul
Terminal
Terminal
Operators
Operators
Destination
Destination
Drayage
Drayage
Companies
Companies
Equipment
Rail
Rail Equipment
Equipment
Suppliers
Suppliers
Key:
Key:
Day-to-day
Day-to-day
operational relationship
operational relationship
Commercial relationship
Commercial relationship
•• Conventional
Conventional TOFC
TOFC
•• Stack
Stack Cars
Cars
•• RoadRailers
RoadRailers
THE TIOGA GROUP
Highway
Highway
Equipment
Equipment
Suppliers
Suppliers
Terminal
Terminal
Equipment
Equipment
Suppliers
Suppliers
•• Trailers
Trailers
•• Lift
Lift Equipment
Equipment
•• Containers
Containers
•• Chassis
Chassis
•• Hostler
Hostler tractors
tractors
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
134
Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
“Third parties” arrange intermodal transportation on behalf of the
customers
•
Intermodal intermediaries are known generically as third parties, but most of the are IMCs. IMCs are the
most common avenue into intermodal transportation ,and are the best bet for a domestic shipper learning
the business.
§ Many customers use a “third party” (neither shipper nor receiver) to arrange complex equipment
supply, origin and destination drayage, and rail service combinations.
§ Such agents have included freight forwarders, shipper’s agents, shipping associations, and brokers of
various kinds.
§ The third-party business is currently dominated by “intermodal marketing companies” (IMCs) who
combine the functions of many previous firms under one roof.
§ Major IMCs include Hub City, Alliance Shippers, Mark VII, Rail-Van, Riss Intermodal, GST, C.H.
Robinson, and Matson Intermodal.
•
Intermodal Marketing Companies offer multiple services
§ Intermodal marketing companies (IMCs) handle about 40% of the intermodal traffic, including most of
the domestic traffic.
§ Intermodal marketing companies manage the “package” of equipment supply, rail service, and
drayage for their customers
§ Some IMCs have taken charge of equipment supply and manage their own fleets.
§ IMCs increasingly provide truck brokerage for over-the-road loads.
§ The largest IMCs now also offer logistics services.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal customers use a mix of equipment types
Exhibit 65: Intermodal Equipment Mix
48/53' TL Trailers
7%
28' Pups
4%
28' Boxes
3%
40/45/48' Pigs
16%
20/40/45' ISO Boxes
49%
48/53' Domestic Boxes
21%
Type
20/40/45' ISO Boxes
48/53' Domestic Boxes
40/45/48' Pigs
48/53' TL Trailers
28' LCL Pups
28' LCL Boxes
Other
Total
THE TIOGA GROUP
Other
0%
1Q99
1Q00
1,088,911 1,226,019
446,653
529,871
431,906
395,950
163,104
182,142
110,331
95,885
47,906
70,847
6,205
5,211
2,295,016 2,505,925
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
Share
49%
21%
16%
7%
4%
3%
0%
100%
Growth
13%
19%
-8%
12%
-13%
48%
-16%
9%
136
Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal customers use a mix of equipment types
Exhibit 66: Intermodal Trailers
Most piggyback loads travel in private or leased trailers
1Q 2000 Intermodal Trailer Mix
§ The 40-footer is almost extinct
RailPrivate &
§ Rail and rail-controlled leased equipment is mostly 45’ and 48’
Length Controlled Leased
Total
Private and non-rail leased equipment is:
20'
0%
0%
0%
§ 28’ (LTL truckers)
28'
0%
14%
14%
§ 45’ (third parties using leasing company trailers)
40'
0%
2%
2%
45'
24%
11%
35%
§ 48’ (IMCs and some truckload carriers)
48'
21%
9%
30%
§ 53’ (most truckload carriers)
53'
0%
18%
18%
Total
45%
55%
100%
Most containers are international “ISO” boxes
Source: IANA Rail Report
§ 20’, 40’, and 45’ dry vans (plain boxes) predominate
§ “Specials” include reefers, flats, tanks, bulkheads, and open-tops, but only reefers are common on
intermodal trains
Domestic containers were introduced in 1986
§ 48’ and 53’ sizes predominate
§ 28’ boxes are used by UPS
§ UP and BNSF (ATSF) have small domestic tank fleets
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Changing Intermodal Equipment Mix
•
•
Intermodal growth is almost all containers
Older 40ft and 45ft trailers are disappearing
“Piggyback” growth, if any, is in 28’ pups from
LCL truckers and 48’/53’ trailers from
truckload truckers
Domestic truckload intermodal growth is
dominated by 48ft and 53ft containers
There is also a significant volume of domestic
freight moving as backhauls in international
containers
Equipment Size & Type
All
28' Trailers and Containers
40-45' Trailers
48-53' Trailers
20/40/45' Containers (ISO)
48-53' Containers (Domestic)
Est. 1Q99-00 Growth
9.2%
4.9%
-13.3%
7.1%
12.5%
18.6%
Exhibit 67: Changing Intermodal Equipment Mix
U.S. Domestic Intermodal Traffic
Domestic Trailers
Domestic Containers
Domestic Loads in Intl Containers
5,500,000
Domestic "Backhauls" in
International Containers
5,000,000
Introduction of Domestic 48'
& 53' Containers
4,500,000
Units
•
•
•
4,000,000
Traditonal "Piggyback"
Trailers
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1980
1981
THE TIOGA GROUP
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
138
Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Changing Intermodal Equipment Mix
Exhibit 68: Changing Intermodal Equipment Mix
3,000,000
2,500,000
48/53' Domestic Boxes
2,000,000
28' Trailers & Containers
1,500,000
20/40/45' ISO Boxes
1,000,000
500,000
48/53' Trailers
40/45' Piggyback
-
2Q98
THE TIOGA GROUP
2Q99
2Q00
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
2Q01
139
Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal Outlook
•
•
In the early 1990s intermodal was a booming business, but the growth has slowed and the outlook is mixed.
§ Recent intermodal growth has been slow due to rail service problems.
§ The near future holds both plusses and minuses for intermodal.
§ Intermodal has not penetrated short-haul or specialty markets.
§ Longer and heavier trucks are a major threat.
For domestic traffic in particular, the future of intermodal will be determined by the interplay of opposing
forces.
§ The upward pressure on truck rates exerted by fuel prices will work in intermodal’s advantage, as will
the ongoing driver shortage.
§ Probably the biggest single hurdle facing domestic intermodal is the customer “turnoff” from industry
difficulties in the late 1990s.
§ Another problem, however, is that railroads have backed out of some low-volume traffic lanes,
reducing choices for their customers.
§ The driver shortage is beginning to hit drayage firms as well as long-haul truckers.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal transportation is growing
•
Intermodal has grown and will continue to grow. As the graph suggests, the volume of trailers being carried
is essentially flat, with the growth coming in containers.
•
More than anything else, it is international containerized trade that is driving intermodal traffic growth.
Exhibit 69: US Intermodal Traffic Growth
US Rail Intermodal Traffic
10,000,000
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
Units
6,000,000
Containers
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
Trailers
2,000,000
1,000,000
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
75
19
73
19
71
19
69
19
67
19
65
-
Source: AAR. Container volume estimated prior to 1988
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
1999 intermodal growth was only moderate
•
There was only moderate growth in 1999, and there has been less in 2000 to date.
§ Domestic movements in trailers declined and domestic containers grew.
§ LTL/parcel business expanded at 3% while traditional truckload “piggyback” declined.
§ Domestic container business grew strongly.
§ Business in international containers – including domestic backhauls and empties – grew moderately.
Exhibit 70: Recent US Intermodal Traffic
1998-1999 Rail Intermodal Traffic
1998
Domestic Trailers & Containers
Domestic LTL/Parcel Trailers
Domestic Truckload Trailers
Domestic Containers
International Containers
Total Intermodal
4,973,830
654,905
2,517,423
1,801,502
4,564,997
9,538,827
1999
5,117,242
677,326
2,391,099
2,048,817
4,799,930
9,917,172
1999
Share
52%
7%
24%
21%
48%
100%
98-99
Growth
3%
3%
-5%
14%
5%
4%
Source: IANA
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal transportation competes head-to-head with long-haul
trucking
•
The basis for customer comparisons is long-haul trucking. The advantages and disadvantages of trucking
vary by lane and location.
•
Truck rates vary as conditions change
§ The rate per mile goes down as the length of haul (mileage) goes up.
§ The rate goes up when it is hard to get a return load (e.g. Denver to Los Angeles) or when the driver
has to “deadhead” a long way.
§ The cost goes down when the trucker has excess capacity (e.g. Monday afternoon in Los Angeles
with 10 tractor/trailer/drivers but only 2 loads).
•
Intermodal has to be price competitive. In Southern California, for example:
§ Westbound truckload rates are higher (due to high demand) and it is easier for intermodal to
compete.
§ Eastbound truckload rates are lower (due to excess capacity) and it is harder for intermodal to
compete.
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Some motor carriers use intermodal as part of their own operating
strategy
The truckers themselves use intermodal in some case, but for their own reasons
Exhibit 71: Motor Carriers and Intermodal
TL
TL
Embracers
• J.B. Hunt
• Schneider
• Swift
Parcel
Parcel
/Mail
/Mail
• UPS
• USPS
Specialized
Specialized
• Small Tank
Containers
• Yellow
• Roadway
• Consolidated
• ABF
Backpedalers
Ignorers
LTL
LTL
• Werner
THE TIOGA GROUP
• RPS
• Fedex
• Airborne
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
• Refrigerated
• Flatbed
• Haulaway
144
Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Total US intermodal volume will grow by an average of about 4%
annually between 2000 and 2010
Tioga expects relatively slow growth in the years to come as intermodal maintains its present market share.
§ Domestic traffic will grow with the economy and international traffic will grow with foreign trade.
§ Domestic traffic will grow at about 2%, similar to a conservative view of US economic growth.
§ International traffic will grow at about 6%, keeping pace with US containerized foreign trade.
Exhibit 72: Intermodal Growth Forecast
Preliminary US Intermodal Forecast
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
Units
International
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
Domestic
2,000,000
History
Forecast
1995
THE TIOGA GROUP
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Goods Movement Truck & Rail Study
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
145
Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
The intermodal industry faces serious challenges
•
To grow share, the intermodal industry has a long “to-do” list of improvements, the first of which is
improving service consistency. The industry lost ground in the last three years. On-time performance and
end-to-end consistency is only now recovering to pre-1997 levels on some carriers, although BNSF never
dropped as far as the other major railroads.
•
The demands customers place on carriers are constantly increasing, and intermodal carriers have to meet
tougher standards in areas such as customer service and claims handling.
§ Improving rail intermodal service consistency
§ Attracting more TL motor carriers, specialized business, NAFTA shipments, and medium haul traffic
§ Managing customer service and relationships
§ Improving equipment utilization
§ Achieving adequate profitability
§ Exploiting new technology
§ Avoiding or surviving increased truck sizes and weights
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Domestic intermodal traffic growth will balance pluses and minuses
Pluses
Minuses
Higher fuel prices favoring most efficient mode
Customer “turn-off” from merger problems
Continued economic growth
Slower economic growth
Long-haul truck driver shortage
Railroad withdrawal from some minor lanes
Public policy support and TEA-21 funding
Drayage driver shortage
Increased insurance, compliance, and tax costs for truckers
Ultimate LTL teamster limits
Improved post-merger service levels
Slim profitability for railroads
Advantages of domestic containers
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
“Alternative technologies” have held promise for years with only
minor impact
•
There have been any number of efforts at new intermodal systems, the most successful of which has been
the carless RoadRailer, a specially fitted trailer that can travel directly on railroad wheel sets. RoadRailer
service is offered by Triple Crown, a Norfolk Southern subsidiary,a and by Amtrak in some corridors. Rail
Runners are similar, and there was a pilot application in California. The Iron Highway is a continuous rail
platform that is being used in Eastern Canada.
•
RoadRailer and Iron Highway were considered to be strong contenders for short-haul markets.
RoadRailer (bimodal trailer)
§ 3,000 units in service (1993)
§ Triple Crown Services (NS) and Schneider
§ Active on six railroads and Amtrak
Rail Runner
§ Like RoadRailer, but works for containers on chassis
§ First application in July 1999 in California to carry solid waste
Iron Highway (continuous platform)
§ Handles any equipment of any length
§ CSX piloted it in 1995 in Detroit-Chicago lane (discontinued)
§ CP successful in Montreal-Toronto-Detroit lane (ordered more)
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal is facing both limitations and new competition
Service to specialty markets has been disappointing
•
Intermodal’s strength has always been in dry freight
§ International containers include several specialty types, but they only occasionally move via
intermodal.
§ Repeated efforts at refrigerated service have been only partly successful.
§ Tank containers for bulk liquids (e.g. food products, chemicals) have only gained a small
domestic niche.
§ Flatbed domestic containers for lumber, etc. have not caught on in significant numbers.
§ Auto-loading equipment (e.g. AutoStack) has had limited application.
Amtrak is competing for intermodal business
•
Amtrak’s aggressively expanding express business is offering many of the same features as
intermodal. It provides an alternative for small shipments up to carload lots.
§ Amtrak is expanding its Mail & Express equipment fleet of RoadRailers and conventional
boxcars.
§ Amtrak is entering the California refrigerated market by offering fast transcontinental transit
times of 3 days and refrigerated cars that can carry 2-3 truckloads each.
§ Amtrak has alliances with BNSF and two IMCs to boost its Mail & Express sales volume and
carry intermodal freight (including UPS).
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal Transportation In The SCAG Region
The SCAG region is served by the second largest intermodal rail complex in North America
§ Rail intermodal terminals in the Los Angeles basin are second only to those in the Chicago area in
total capacity and throughput
§ The Union Pacific Railroad (UP) maintains four intermodal facilities, including the Intermodal
Container Transfer Facility (ICTF) serving the ports
§ Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) maintains one major facility, the largest on their system, and a
second large facility in the Inland Empire
§ There are eight on-dock intermodal terminals in the region
§ Together, these rail intermodal terminals handled approximately 3 million trailers and containers in
1998
The Los Angeles basin is a major market for domestic intermodal freight transportation
§ About a third of total U.S. rail intermodal traffic originates or terminates in the Los Angeles basin
§ Of that volume roughly a third is domestic
§ Los Angeles area shippers and receivers rely on the efficiency and service quality of domestic
intermodal freight transportation to obtain timely delivery of goods at minimum cost
§ Los Angeles area rail intermodal terminals originate and receive over 250 intermodal trains every
week supporting the region’s congestion management goals and environmental policy
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
Intermodal Transportation In The SCAG Region
•
Rail served land-bridge cargo is of critical important to the ports
§ Generally speaking, Los Angeles rail intermodal services are competitive for points east of the Rocky
Mountains
§ As of 1996, the available statistics indicate that land-bridge traffic (international cargo moving
between the West Coast and cities in the East and Midwest) was about half the total container
business at these ports.
§ The New York-Chicago-Los Angeles corridor is considered the nation’s premier intermodal route
•
Capital investments have reduced the region’s reliance on drayage services
•
Drayage is expensive (relative to long haul rail and ocean trips), so large capital investments have
been made to reduce the reliance on marine-to-rail drayage services in the L.A. basin
§ In 1987, the Southern Pacific opened the Intermodal Container Transfer Facility (ICTF), a rail
terminal approximately 16 miles closer to the ports than its other railhead in downtown Los
Angeles
§ The two ports have added specialized rail loading facilities eight marine terminals (on-dock rail
intermodal terminals)
§ Construction has started on the $2.4 Billion Alameda Corridor Project, which will dramatically
improve direct railroad service to the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
SCAG Region Intermodal Traffic Origin States
•
Most inbound rail intermodal traffic comes from a few major states.
•
The Illinois total is inflated due to interchange in Chicago.
Exhibit 73: Inbound Intermodal Traffic
1999 Inbound Intermodal Traffic
Origin State
IL
TX
LA
AR
KS
TN
OR
MO
GA
All Others
Total
THE TIOGA GROUP
Units
604,000
302,388
105,280
70,880
64,120
43,400
27,291
22,480
16,040
105,280
1,361,159
Share
44%
22%
8%
5%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
8%
100%
Cumulative Share
44%
67%
74%
80%
84%
87%
89%
91%
92%
100%
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Chapter 5 – Intermodal Transportation
SCAG Region Intermodal Traffic Destination States
•
Likewise, most outbound rail intermodal traffic is destined for a few major states.
•
A small amount moves within California.
•
The Illinois total is inflated due to interchange in Chicago.
Exhibit 74: Outbound Intermodal Traffic
1999 Outbound Intermodal Traffic
Destination State
IL
TX
LA
AR
TN
KS
GA
MO
CA
All Others
Total
THE TIOGA GROUP
Units
438,240
183,240
133,280
48,000
46,440
39,560
18,560
16,400
15,480
86,696
1,025,896
Share
Cumulative Share
43%
43%
18%
61%
13%
74%
5%
78%
5%
83%
4%
87%
2%
88%
2%
90%
2%
92%
8%
100%
100%
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Chapter VI – Network Comparisons
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Rail Network Overview
•
The regional rail network has reserve capacity for traffic that might be diverted from the highway.
§ High Capacity Lines: The major main lines serving the SCAG region are high-capacity routes with
reserve capacity, although prioritization will be necessary.
§ Resources for Improvements: When traffic has grown, railroads have typically invested in higher
capacity to handle it.
§ Transloading Options: The growth of transloading options and attendant logistics practices creates
additional rail opportunities.
•
There are a few serious limitations on the ability of the rail network to expand service.
§ Geography: Rail lines use mountain passes with steep grades and limited right-of-way.
§ Regional Network Age: The rail network pre-dates most of the regional industrial expansion, and can
be adapted or extended only with great difficulty.
§ Regional Network Reductions: While many main lines and branches are still in place, others have
been sold for passenger service or dismantled
§ Passenger Service Conflicts: The greatly expanded scope of regional rail passenger service limits the
“windows” available for additional freight service.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
California Rail Infrastructure
•
The SCAG Region rail network is part of a larger California, national, and North American network
•
The major routes run generally eastward from Los Angeles, including the ports, to the San Bernardino
area. From here one major route goes north to the Bay area, another runs to the east, ultimately to Chicago
and the east coast, and a third runs via El Paso to the East and Southeast. All of these lines are high
capacity lines and have significant grades both in and out of the region. The map below shows how the
major Southern California routes are linked to the state and national networks.
Exhibit 75: SCAG Rail Network Connections
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Regional Rail Network Changes
•
Regional Network Age: The rail network pre-dates most of the regional industrial expansion, and can be
adapted or extended only with great difficulty. Exhibit 5 compares the 1965 and 1982 networks.
•
Regional Network Reductions: While many main lines and branches are still in place, others have been sold
for passenger service or dismantled .
1965
1965
Exhibit 76:
Regional Rail
Network
Changes
Santa
SantaFe
Fe
Branch
BranchLine
Line
Abandoned
Abandoned
SP
SPPalmdale
Palmdale
Cutoff
CutoffBuilt
Built
Former
FormerPacific
Pacific
Electric
ElectricLines
Lines
Abandoned
Abandoned
1982
1982
Changes
Changes have
have been
been gradual
gradual
Old
Old lines
lines have
have been
been abandoned
abandoned
SP’s
SP’s Palmdale
Palmdale Cutoff
Cutoff was
was the
the last
last
major
major addition
addition before
before completion
completion of
of
the
Alameda
Corridor
the Alameda Corridor
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Current SCAG Region Rail Network
Several lines are controlled and heavily used by Metrolink.
Many branch lines have been truncated.
Other branch lines abandoned or no longer served.
Exhibit 77: SCAG Regional Rail Network
Metrolink
Metrolink Lines
Lines
Metrolink
Metrolink Lines
Lines
BNSF
BNSF (ATSF)
(ATSF) Lines
Lines
Metrolink
Metrolink Lines
Lines
UP
UP (SP)
(SP) Lines
Lines
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
BNSF and UP Corridors
•
There are five rail corridors connecting the SCAG region with the rest of the nation:
§ UP’s Coast Line north through Ventura County to the Bay Area (former SP route)
§ UP’s Saugus Line via Burbank and Palmdale, connecting with UP’s Central Valley lines at Mojave
(former SP route)
§ UP’s Palmdale Cutoff between Palmdale and West Colton, allowing UP’s long-distance traffic to
bypass the Los Angeles Basin (former SP route)
§ UP’s mainline from Los Angeles via Colton and Beaumont Pass to Yuma and points east (former SP
route)
§ BNSF’s line through Cajon Pass to Barstow and points east (former ATSF route), which also carries
UP’s traffic via trackage rights
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Railroad Line Density
•
The freight railroads carry three major types of traffic:
§ Unit trains of bulk commodities. These consist of complete trains of a single commodity such as coal
or grain in a regular movement between a fixed origin and a fixed destination.
§ Intermodal trains. These consist of conventional, spine, or double-stack cars carrying intermodal
trailers and/or containers between intermodal facilities or on-dock port facilities.
§ Carload freight trains. These are the common freight trains whose consist of cars is mixed in both
type and commodity and which changes from day to day.
•
A few major main lines carry most of the traffic
Exhibit 78:
Railroad Line
Density
BNSF/UP
BNSF/UP
UP
UP (Ex
(Ex SP)
SP)
UP/BNSF
UP/BNSF
UP
UP (Ex
(Ex SP)
SP)
BNSF
BNSF
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Rail Facilities
•
The freight railroads have several types of facilities in the SCAG region:
§ trackage and right-of-way, including line-haul routes to, from, and through the region, and a network
of local trackage serving industrial customers
§ classification yards, where line-haul trains are made up and broken down, freight cars are classified
into groups, and local trains arrive and depart
§ local or industrial yards, serving similar functions as classification yards but on a smaller scale
§ intermodal facilities (“piggyback ramps”), where intermodal trailers and containers are loaded and
unloaded from trains, and interchanged with motor carriers
§ auto-loading facilities (“auto ramps”) where automobiles and light trucks are loaded and unloaded
from specialized freight cars
§ transload facilities where bulk or other commodities are transferred between freight cars and trucks,
and may also be stored or processed (most are privately owned and operated)
§ maintenance facilities, where locomotives and freight cars are serviced and maintained, and light
repairs are made (none of the railroads have major shops for heavy repairs in the SCAG region)
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
BNSF Network
•
Burlington Northern Santa Fe, headquartered in Fort Worth, TX, is one of the six major North American
railroads. It serves 28 states and two Canadian provinces with some 33,500 miles of track.
•
The Southern California Division is headquartered in San Bernardino; its territory extending from Needles to
Redondo Junction in Los Angeles, a distance of about 320 miles. It is comprised of three mainline
subdivisions, and several lines either owned, such as the Hesperia branch or the San Diego line where
BNSF provides freight service. The map below shows this operating division.
Exhibit 79: BNSF Regional Network
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
BNSF Facilities
•
BNSF maintains major facilities in the SCAG region, including:
§ Intermodal facilities in Commerce (Hobart) and San Bernardino
§ Rail-truck transload and warehousing facilities (Quality Distribution Centers, associated or owned) in
Bakersfield, Glendale, Fontana, Pomona, Los Angeles, Long Beach, Wilmington, and Commerce
§ A major freight classification yard in Barstow
•
BNSF employs about 1500 people in the SCAG region.
•
The BNSF operation in Southern California is under the control of two divisions, the Southern California
Division and the Los Angeles Terminal Division.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
BNSF Southern California Subdivisions
•
BNSF’s Southern California Division is divided into three subdivisions, shown below and described on the
next pages
Exhibit 80: BNSF Subdivisions
Needles
NeedlesSub
Subto
toEast
East
Double-track
Double-track
Via
ViaTehachapi
Tehachapi(UP)
(UP)
to
toNorth
North
30
30Trains/day
Trains/day
Cajon
CajonSub
Sub
to
toNorth
North&&East
East
70
70Trains/Day
Trains/Day
w/
w/Amtrak
Amtrak&&UP
UP
San
SanBernardino
BernardinoSub
Subto
to
LA
LA
Double-track
Double-track
w/Commuters
w/Commuters
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
BNSF Southern California Subdivisions
Needles Subdivision
•
This subdivision extends 168 miles from Needles to Barstow. It is a double tracked, high capacity line
with fairly heavy grades both east and westbound. Westbound grades of 1.4% extend 30 miles from
Needles to Goffs, and from approximately Amboy, MP 66o, to Ash Hill, about 28 miles at maximum
1.42%. Grades notwithstanding, freight train maximum speeds for much of the distance are 55 mph.
Eastbound, the major grade extents 42 miles from MP 660 to Goffs, with a maximum gradient of
1.28%.
Cajon Subdivision
•
This subdivision extends 81 miles from Barstow to San Bernardino. It is also a double tracked railroad
with very heavy grades both east and west. It is also host to UPRR trackage rights on the entire
route, adding to train volume. (The UP trackage rights continue east from Barstow a short distance to
Daggett on the Needles sub, where UP’s own line continues on to Salt Lake).
•
The westbound grade extends all the way from Barstow, 56 miles, with the heaviest portion of the
grade from approximately Frost, MP38 to Summit, at 1.6%. the eastbound grade is significantly more
severe at 2.2% much of the distance (22 of 26 miles) from summit to San Bernardino. Most trains
require helper or pusher engines to surmount the grade. Many westbound trains also require
assistance. When these helper units are cut off (removed) from the train and return to their starting
points (to help another train), this adds additional moves to the traffic on the line. About 90 to 95
trains are operated over this route on a daily basis, including 20-22 UP trains and a couple of Amtrak
trains.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
BNSF Southern California Subdivisions
San Bernardino Subdivision
•
This is BNSF’s main line between Barstow and Los Angeles. The line extends from San Bernardino to
Redondo Junction in LA where it connects with the LA Terminal Division a distance of 68 miles. This
railroad is also double tracked and with much of the distance having a 50 MPH speed limit.
Westbound is down, approximately 800’ elevation decrease. Eastbound is mostly 1.0% grade with
several segments of slightly greater gradient. East of San Bernardino a number of passenger trains
operate but not on the freight line. However, from Fullerton to LA, about 20 miles a large number of
passenger trains operate on the freight line adding to the complexity of operations, as these trains
make many station stops, interfering with the freight trains.
•
This is a heavily used, high-speed line with numerous train operations daily in both directions. The
heaviest single traffic source may be intermodal (piggyback and container) traffic to and from BNSF’s
Hobart intermodal terminal on Washington Boulevard in the City of Commerce and the Port of Long
Beach.
•
Traffic on this line will be affected by long-term goods movement growth in Southern California,
including any impact of the Alameda Corridor and increased traffic due to NAFTA. (BNSF connects
with Mexican railroads at Calexico and points east.)
•
BNSF also operates a significant number of trains via the UP’s (former SP) Mohave Subdivision. This route
provides BNSF with access to northern California. BNSF trains operate from Barstow to Mohave on their
own trackage, thence north via trackage on UP over the Tehachapi grade. Much of this line is single
tracked. About 30 trains operate on this route daily.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
BNSF Los Angeles Terminal Division
•
This Division and its principal operating component, the Harbor Subdivision, extends in a somewhat
roundabout way some 28 miles between Redondo Junction in downtown LA to West Thenard, where
connection is made with the Pacific Harbor Line. This line is essentially flat, single track with many grade
crossings and corresponding speed restrictions. Maximum speed is 20 MPH, with much of the line lower
than that. Nonetheless all of BNSF’s port traffic moves via this line. With completion of the Alameda
Corridor, this line will likely no longer be retained as a through route, but only to serve industrial customers.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Union Pacific Network
•
Union Pacific, headquartered in Omaha, is currently the largest railroad in the western United States. The
UP system covers roughly 38,6500 actual miles of track. UP’s network in the SCAG Region incorporates
the original UP routes as well as the former Southern Pacific network. From the SCAG region, UP’s original
route extends northwest to Salt Lake City, (Ogden) where it joins routes from the Bay Area and the Pacific
Northwest. UP’s extremely busy east-west route connects Utah with Omaha and Kansas City, where a
network of lines extends to Chicago, St Louis, Memphis, and points south. UP has a major connection to
Mexico at Laredo.
Exhibit 81: UP Regional Network
Via
ViaBNSF
BNSF(UP)
(UP)
East
Eastto
toLas
LasVegas
Vegas
20-22
Trains/day
20-22 Trains/day
Mohave
MohaveSub
Sub
to
toNorth
North
12
12
Trains/Day
Trains/Day
Yuma
YumaSub
Sub(SP)
(SP)
Double-track
Double-track
East
to
Yuma
East to Yuma
60
60Trains/day
Trains/day
Alhambra
AlhambraSub
Sub
(SP)
(SP)
Double-track
Double-track
w/Commuters
w/Commuters
THE TIOGA GROUP
LA
LASub
Sub(UP)
(UP)
to
toColton
Colton
Double-track
Double-track
w/Commuter
w/Commuter
ss
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
UP Route Structure
Exhibit 82: UP Route Structure
•
•
Former Southern Pacific routes now part of
Union Pacific include:
§ the “Central Corridor” over Donner Pass
connects Northern California with points
east through Salt Lake City, Denver, and
Kansas City
§ the “I-5 Corridor ” connects the SCAG
region with northern California and
Oregon
§ the “Golden State Route” connects the
SCAG region with southwestern and
Midwest states via El Paso and Kansas
City
§ the “Sunset Route” connects the SCAG
region with Texas and Louisiana via El
Paso, Houston, and New Orleans
§ the “Mid-America” corridor runs northsouth between Houston and Chicago via
St Louis.
SP also had several connections to Mexico
which are now part of UP.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
UP Trackage and Facilities
•
•
UP’s SCAG-area trackage system has been altered through sales to local transit agencies and sale of the
Alameda Corridor trackage. SP previously listed several other local branches or industrial spurs as subject
to eventual abandonment, including the Santa Paula Branch, Canoga Park to Tarzana, portions of the
Burbank, Baldwin Park, and Santa Monica Branches, the State Street Line, and a portion of the San
Bernardino Branch.
UP’s facilities in the SCAG region now include:
§
Intermodal facilities in Los Angeles (LATC) and Long Beach (ICTF)
§
A major intermodal facility at City of Industry
§ A major freight classification yard in East Los Angeles.
§ A major freight classification yard at West Colton
Exhibit 83: UP
Trackage and
Facilities
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
UP Operations
•
The UP’s operation in southern California is organized into a number of subdivisions, the most important of
which will be addressed. These are made up of parts of both the UP and the former SP.
§ Los Angeles Subdivision This line extends from Yermo, near Riverside and the junction with BNSF,
west to the East LA area, a distance of 60 miles. This is double tracked high speed railroad. Most UP
trains from the ports operate via this route. In addition a number of commuter trains operate on this
line into LA.
§ Yuma subdivision This is the former SP mainline to the east (“East Line”), and extends approximately
202 miles from West Colton, near San Bernardino, to Yuma. The portion in the LA basin that is of
importance here is the segment from West Colton to Beaumont, about 37 miles. There are about 60
train moves a day on this double tracked railroad, plus anywhere from 6 to 12 helper locomotive
moves.
§ Alhambra Subdivision This is the former SP’s main entry into LA, extending west from West Colton. A
number of commuter trains plus Amtrak operate on this line as well.
§ Mohave subdivision This line extends northward from West Colton up through the Cajon Pass,
paralleling the BNSF line much of the way to Summit where it continues northward to Mohave, thence
over the Tehachapi grades to Bakersfield. Approximately 12 trains a day operate via this route. In
addition, from Mohave north about 30 BNSF trains operate on this line.
§ Los Nietos Subdivision. This important unit provides access to the port area, via connection with the
PHL. A large number of industrial tracks are served by this subdivision.
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Short Lines
•
•
•
The short lines active in the SCAG Region are:
§ Pacific Harbor Line, a subsidiary of Anacostia and Pacific, which handles the switching and dispatch
into and out of the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles
§ Los Angeles Junction Railway, a subsidiary of the BNSF and managed as part of the BNSF system,
which provides switching services in the Vernon area for both BNSF and UP
§ Ventura County Railroad, owned by Rail American Inc,. which switches Port Hueneme and provides a
short line connection to the UP
§ The San Jacinto Branch Line, a Riverside County-controlled line connecting industries between
Riverside and Hemet to the BNSF and operated by BNSF
These railroads perform specific local functions, and connect with the trunk-line railroads for movements to
and from the SCAG region. In essence, they serve as feeder lines.
There are numerous industrial switching operations serving individual plants. As these do not provide
common carrier freight transportation, they are not covered by this study.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Pacific Harbor Line
•
Pacific Harbor Line (PHL) is the successor to previous “belt line” switching operations in the San Pedro and
Long Beach areas. PHL provides access to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and serves
numerous carload customers and transloading facilities in the vicinity. With the exception of one UP yard,
all service in the port area is provided by PHL. This includes BNSF and UP trains operating under PHL
control to the numerous on-dock rail intermodal facilities. PHL interchanges with BNSF and UP at West
Thenard, and with UP at Manuel Yard.
Exhibit 84: Pacific Harbor Line Map
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Pacific Harbor Line Operations
•
•
•
•
PHL consists of five subdivisions all operating within the port areas and the City of Wilmington. PHL
has about 75 employees and operates about 40 miles of track (actually owned by the ports).
PHL currently moves about 30,000 carloads of freight annually and dispatches and controls about 20
intermodal trains per day. The vast majority of trains operated by PHL are intermodal (container)
trains but there are other trains as well: automobile, coal, and merchandise
Because of the high number of trains operated and consequent congestion maximum track speed is
10 MPH. In part this is a result of BNSF and UP congestion on their own lines into the area. It is
anticipated that when operation commences on the Alameda Corridor, PHL will be able to increase
train speeds to 25 MPH.
PHL operates its own locomotive fleet to provide service within the port area, with close to one
hundred switching assignments operating each week. These provide, for example, ancillary switching
services at the various container terminals such as assembling and blocking trains.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Pacific Harbor Line Traffic
•
•
•
Conceptually, PHL’s operations can be divided into three parts:
§ Intermodal service to and from marine container terminals
§ Carload service to and from other port facilities
§ Carload service to and from non-port customers on PHL lines
Port Container Traffic
§ PHL serves all marine terminals, many of which have on-dock rail intermodal capabilities.
§ In recent years significant capital has been invested in the various container terminals and rail
infrastructure. This has included construction of large staging yards as well as removing the PHL
access trackage so as not to require passing through one terminal to access another, with the delays
and complications that entails.
Non-container Port Traffic
§ The ports have extensive rail served facilities for handling bulk commodities, with an annual
throughput capacity of in excess of 15 million tons (although in recent years actual tonnage has been
considerably less).
§ Non-container port facilities include:
§ Autos: Auto Warehousing (Honda), Lexus, Distribution Auto Service (Nissan)
§ Cotton: Prime West, Crescent Warehouse , California Cartage
§ Any significant growth in this traffic would have an impact on rail transportation; each million tons
represents approximately 200 train movements (loaded train in, empty out for exports, and the
reverse for imports).
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
PHL Non-port and transload traffic
•
•
Non-port customers on PHL lines include:
§ Refineries such as Tosco and Equilon
§ Carload customers such as Genstar Roofing Materials, DiCarlo bakery, Union Ice, Heinz Pet Food,
etc.
§ Transloading facilities such as the Avalon Team Track, California Cartage Company, and San Pedro
Forklift
§ Bulk transfer facilities such as Pak tank, Amerigas, Pacific Coast Recycling, Baker Commodities
PHL is a critical resource for the potential growth of truck-rail transloading, as explained in greater depth in
the diversion analysis PHL has rail transfer facilities in Wilmington (shown below) and serves multiple public
warehouse and bulk transfer facilities.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Los Angeles Junction Railway Company
•
•
The Los Angeles Junction Railway Company is owned by BNSF and offers neutral switching to customers
in the Los Angeles industrial area with connections to BNSF and UP. It maintains an office in Vernon. It
operates approximately 63 miles of trackage with a fleet of four locomotives and 48 employees.
Like PHL, the Los Angeles Junction Railway is a potential asset to the region for encouraging rail-truck
transfers and transloading
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Ventura County Railroad
•
The Ventura County Railroad (VCRR), operated by Rail America, Inc., connects Port Hueneme with the
Union Pacific line at Oxnard. (Below) It also serves industrial customers over approximately 13 miles of
track, and maintains offices in Port Hueneme. VCRR moves about 3,100 annual carloads of finished
automobiles, chemicals, plastics, and paper products.
Exhibit 85: Ventura Co. Railroad
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
San Jacinto Branch Line
•
•
•
•
The San Jacinto Branch Line is currently an active freight-only line between Riverside and Hemet, roughly
following I-215 and SR 74 (below).
The line is owned by Riverside County and administered by the Riverside County Transportation
Commission (RCTC). RCTC purchased the route from the ATSF in 1992 using local and state bond funds.
ATSF retained freight operating rights. Its successor railroad, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, continues to
operate freight service and maintain the line under agreements with RCTC.
The line between Riverside and Hemet/San Jacinto was reportedly considered in the original planning for
Metrolink. Lack of funding until recently prevented upgrades to the branch line and it is now reportedly only
suitable for slow-speed freight service.
RCTC is proposing to implement rail passenger service on the entire 38-mile line between the communities
of Riverside/Highgrove and San Jacinto. The proposed project is included in the 2001 Regional
Transportation Plan. Upgrading the line for passenger service may encourage additional freight traffic or
may lead to complete cessation of freight activity.
Exhibit 86: San Jacinto
Branch Line
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Intermodal Facilities
•
Intermodal terminals are critical to the success of intermodal services. Terminals are the starting and
ending points for trains, and the sites of crucial hand-offs between modes. Terminals also function as
equipment storage, maintenance, and dispatching centers, and focal points for the flow of information.
Terminals vary widely in configuration, capacity, and operations, and only a few have been built from the
ground up as modern intermodal facilities.The map below shows the locations of rail intermodal facilities in
the study region.
Exhibit 87: SCAG Region Intermodal Facilities
UP
UP
LATC
LATC
BNSF
BNSF
San
San
Bernardino
Bernardino
BNSF
BNSF
Hobart
Hobart
UP
UP
City
Cityof
of
Commerce
Commerce
THE TIOGA GROUP
UP
UP
City
Cityof
of
Industry
Industry
UP
UP
ICTF
ICTF
(International)
(International)
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Intermodal Terminal Coverage
•
Since trailers or containers must be trucked to and from intermodal facilities, their location relative to
shippers and receivers is a major consideration. The map below shows the coverage of existing intermodal
facilities within a 25-mile trucking radius. As the map shows, virtually all of the study area is within 25 miles
of an intermodal terminal.
Exhibit 88: Intermodal Terminal Coverage
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Intermodal Market Distances
•
•
Typical “breakeven” mileage for intermodal is 600-900 miles.
Reducing the “breakeven” distance from Southern California does not gain access to any large markets
unless service can be competitive at about 200 mile or under for intra-state moves.
Exhibit 89: Intermodal Market Distances
Conceptual
Conceptual
Truckload
Intermodal
Rail Carload
Rail Unit Train
Breakeven Zone for Intermodal
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Distance in Miles
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Passenger Rail Conflicts
•
•
•
•
The SCAG region is also served by Amtrak and Metrolink, providing intercity and commuter rail passenger
service, respectively. Amtrak uses the lines of the major railroads, and Los Angeles Union Passenger
Terminal. Metrolink primarily uses a network of local lines purchased from the freight railroads, with other
routes shared.
The greatly expanded scope of regional rail passenger service limits the “windows” available for additional
freight service
Recent, rapid expansion of regional rail passenger service has pre-empted use of existing branch lines and
main lines.
§ Metrolink now runs 128 trains per day covering 49 stations on six routes
§ Amtrak runs about 26 trains per day on three routes
§ BNSF and UP have limited access for freight trains and industrial switching.
The combination of frequent stops and high running speeds for regional passenger service is not
compatible with efficient, high capacity freight operations or industrial access.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Commuter Rail
•
•
The current regional commuter rail operation dates approximately from 1990, when the California
Legislature passed legislation requiring preparation of a plan for regional transit service. The following year
a plan was developed which called for a 412 mile, five county, seven route system. To accomplish this, the
counties of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura established a Joint Powers
Authority, the Southern California Regional Rail Authority (SCRRA), to design, construct and manage the
Metrolink system.
In the ensuing years, SCRRA acquired several then-SP lines, as well as eventually several miles of UP
trackage, in addition to acquiring trackage rights on some 57 miles of UP lines. Other routes on the former
ATSF were also acquired either in the form of purchase or trackage rights. This ultimately encompassed a
total of about 340 miles, including the Santa Fe line between Fullerton Junction and San Diego. This line
was purchased jointly with the North San Diego County Transit Development Board.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Metrolink Operations
•
•
Metrolink commenced service on three former SP lines in October 1992. Initial service was limited to
morning and evening commuter service. Service expansion continued to the point that by mid-1998 the
daily passenger count was nearly 26,000 on 107 trips over a 416 route mile system.
Metrolink has continued to expand service and as of September 2001 is operating 128 daily trips, plus 22
Amtrak trips. Daily passenger trips average 33,000. Most service is designed for people working in
downtown Los Angeles, where service terminates at Los Angeles Union Station (Los Angeles Union
Passenger Terminal, or LAUPT), at which point connection can be made to the extensive light rail system.
Exhibit 90: Metrolink Lines
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Metrolink Operations
•
•
•
•
SCRRA has contracted out its train operations, with Amtrak being responsible for operations and
dispatching. Maintenance and other servicing functions have been contracted to other firms.
SCRRA is experiencing both line and terminal capacity problems:
§ Plans are currently proceeding to construct third and fourth main tracks on the heavily used BNSF
main line between the LAUPT access connection and Fullerton Junction, with an expected completion
date in early 2003. This will reduce conflicts with the freight operations and allow additional train
service and station stops. There are operational issues to be worked out with BNSF.
§ A recently completed connection at the south end of the LAUPT access line has eased train
movements at that location. This construction is associated with the Alameda Corridor project.
The other capacity issue is with LAUPT itself. The terminal is approaching capacity, and possible solutions
are being studied. A partial solution will be improving track access to the terminal from the south, however
the major problem will be to increase trackage in the terminal itself.
Metrolink (SCAX) Orange and Olive Subdivisions
§ These are former Santa Fe lines connecting BNSF’s San Bernardino Subdivision with San Diego. In
Orange county they form a “Y” shape, connecting to BNSF at Fullerton and Atwood, joining at
Control Point Maple (CP Maple), and running south to the county line near San Clemente before
continuing to San Diego. This line is heavily used by Metrolink and Amtrak for passenger service,
and more lightly used by BNSF for freight.
§ Freight traffic on this line is unlikely to be affected by the Alameda Corridor. San Pedro Bay port
traffic will not ordinarily use this line, and this line does not connect to the Mexican railroads. San
Diego is a satellite intermodal terminal for BNSF, served by highway from Los Angeles rather than by
rail.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Amtrak
•
•
•
Amtrak (officially the National Rail Passenger Corp.) operates an average of about 26 passenger trains
daily in the SCAG Region:
§ Daily Coast Starlights northbound and southbound between LAUPT and points along UP’s Coast Line
§ Daily Southwest Chiefs between LAUPT and points east via the former ATSF route through San
Bernardino and Barstow
§ Thrice-weekly Sunset Limiteds between LAUPT and points east via the former SP line through
Pomona, Ontario, and Palm Springs.
§ 20-22 daily Pacific Surfliners (formerly the San Diegans) between LAUPT and San Diego on the
former ATSF line through Fullerton, Anaheim, Santa Ana, and Irvine. Some of these trains operate
north of LAUPT on the former SP line to Santa Barbara.
The long-distance Coast Starlights, Southwest Chiefs, and Sunset Limteds require one operating “slot” daily
in each direction on their respective routes, and there are no announced plans to increase their frequency.
While these trains do take up some of the total capacity on each route, they cannot be regarded as
significant operating obstacles for future expansion of freight operations on the long-haul routes. In the
vicinity of LAUPT, however, the impact is significantly greater, and is combined with the impact of the much
more frequent Surfliners.
The great frequency of the Surfliners, the possibility of expansion, and the wide operating windows required
to keep them on schedule doe significantly limit the use of their route for rail freight service. BNSF operates
several trains per day between Los Angeles and San Diego on the former ATSF route used by the
Surfliners, and there is some reserve capacity.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Railroad Line Capacity
The major factors of railroad line capacity are the following:
§ Number of tracks – double track generally allows trains to pass in opposite directions without
stopping.
§ Number and length of sidings – longer sidings on single or multiple track lines allow for longer
trains and increase the likelihood that trains can avoid stopping when meeting or passing other trains.
§ Number of crossovers and other connections – crossovers allow trains to use other tracks but
also force trains to slow down.
§ Type of signaling – Centralized Traffic Control is generally expected to yield the highest capacity but
is not justified on low-volume routes. There are many types and variations of signaling systems.
§ Speed limits – speed limits are determined both by track and route conditions and by the
environment, including the presence of grade crossings, passenger stations, etc. Maintaining track
standards for higher speeds is costly, and must be justified by capacity increase and traffic demand.
§ Grade and curvature – to overcome steeper grades and tighter curves, trains require more power at
any given tonnage and speed. As trains must slow down around tight curves or when descending
steep grades, the number of trains that can pass through in a given time declines.
§ Traffic mix – higher speed intermodal traffic will yield more trains, but lower speed unit trains of bulk
commodities will yield more tonnage.
Railroad line capacity is not an exact science:
§ Different “rules of thumb” result in different capacity estimates.
§ Resourceful, dedicated managers can often operate their facilities at volumes beyond their estimated
capacities.
§ Poorly designed or indifferently managed facilities will become congested before their estimated
capacity is reached.
§ There is no simple measure of capacity, since railroads traffic is a mix of commodities and train types
moving with different speeds and priorities.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Major Corridor Capacity
•
There are no public data on the present or expected usage and performance of the private rail system.
That is confidential to the two owners of the primary freight rail systems in the SCAG region, Burlington
Northern Santa Fe and Union Pacific. Further the expected usage and performance is dependent on the
commercial decisions made by the two companies. It is generally believed that the expected growth in rail
intermodal service, primarily due to the projections for increased imports at the Ports of Los Angeles and
Long Beach, will fill the existing capacity of both railroads within the LA Basin sometime before 2025.
Hence, both companies face major decisions about the nature of the shipments that they will attempt to
secure based on their individual service design plans and ability to raise capital to expand capacity.
•
The high-capacity main routes leading to and from the SCAG region generally have the following
characteristics:
§ Double track or long, frequent sidings.
§ Centralized Traffic Control
§ Well-spaced crossovers
§ Steep, twisting grades over mountain passes
•
The railroads have invested in capacity-enhancing improvements, but are constrained by the geography:
between the SCAG Region and the rest of North America are a series of mountain passes that constrain
railroad capacity and performance.
§ The UP (former SP) Coast Line has steep grades at Cuesta, near San Luis Obispo.
§ The UP and BNSF lines through the Inland Empire pass through Cajon Pass.
§ The UP line to the southeast passes over Beaumont Hill.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Rail Network Limitations
•
Geography imposes some serious limitations
on the ability of the rail network to expand
service.
§ Rail lines use mountain passes with
steep grades and limited right-of-way.
§ Lines to the north and east cross Cajon
and Beaumont Passes
§ Steep grades and tight curves reduce
speeds, limit train lengths, and increase
costs.
§ Narrow right-of-way shared with
highways makes it difficult and costly for
railroads to increase capacity.
Cajon Pass
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Capacity and Traffic Growth
•
In general the routes in the LA basin used by both services are 40 to 50 MPH tracks for freight, and higher
for passenger. What may be required on these heavy service routes is construction of additional main
tracks in order to increase capacity. In part this is already being planned for the segment of the BNSF
between the LAUPT connection and Fullerton Junction, with new third and fourth main tracks to be added
with construction completion scheduled for early 2003.
•
For example currently the BNSF Cajon route east from San Bernardino hosts 90-95 train movements daily.
If continued annual growth is conservatively estimated at three percent annually for the next five years,
about three trains a day will be added on this route alone each year, or upwards of 110-115 a day or more ,
in the out years. While railroad personnel have reportedly operated as many as 115 trains a day, this has
been in emergencies or under short term conditions. Capacity can do some extent be created by operating
longer trains. This can be the case on the lower grade portions, however on the heavy mountain grades this
is a more limited option.
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Chapter 6 – Network Comparisons
Alameda Corridor
•
The Alameda Corridor is a major infrastructure project involving consolidation of rail and truck traffic to and
from the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles onto a high-capacity right of way following Southern
Pacific’s former Alameda line. The Alameda Corridor itself is a 20-mile rail and truck corridor from the ports
of Long Beach and Los Angeles to downtown Los Angeles. The railroad component involves consolidating
the movements of Union Pacific, Southern Pacific (now part of Union Pacific), and Burlington Northern
Santa Fe (the new entity formed by the BN-ATSF merger) onto an improved right of way parallel to
Alameda Street purchased from Southern Pacific by the Alameda Corridor Transportation Authority (ACTA).
•
The Alameda Corridor replaces three separate rail routes presently serving the Ports of Long Beach and
Los Angeles. The Alameda Corridor project also includes widening and other improvements on the parallel
highway and grade separations.
•
From the rail perspective, the Alameda Corridor project will have three basic impacts:
§ Consolidating the port rail operations of UP/SP and BNSF on a single line
§ Improving intermodal rail efficiency compared to other modes
§ Facilitating the growth of on-dock transfer of containers between marine and rail modes
•
The corridor will also stimulate increased port activity. Development of the Alameda Corridor is expected to
encourage and facilitate the development of “on-dock” container transfer facilities at the ports, thereby
reducing the need to dray containers over city streets and freeways (particularly Interstate 710) to and from
rail intermodal terminals as much as twenty miles away.
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Chapter VII – Regional Trends and Changes
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Chapter 7 – Regional Trends & Challenges
Regional Trucking Trends
•
Congestion affects operations and cost
§ Congestion adversely affects average speed, reliability, and predictability of truck service
§ In slower stop-and-go operations trucks are less efficient and incur higher fuel and maintenance costs
for the same trip length
•
Congestion adversely affects truck drivers
§ Long-haul drivers are paid by the mile, and congestion reduces their earnings potential
§ Intermodal drayage divers (owner-operators) are paid by the trip, so slower speeds reduce their daily
earnings potential as well
§ Congestion and its adverse impacts exacerbate the truck driver shortage
•
Environmental restrictions
§ Stricter current and future environmental standards in Southern California and the state as a whole
raise trucking costs compared to other regions
§ “Clean” diesel fuel is more costly; truckers avoid filling up their tanks in California
§ Older, less costly equipment is less likely to pass inspection in California
§ Stricter emissions standards may eventually require truckers to operate separate equipment in
California, complicating operations
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Chapter 7 – Regional Trends & Challenges
Current Regional Trucking Costs
•
The four examples here show representative regional trucking movements.
Costs are estimated at $1.12 per mile, which is the rough current level.
LA
LA to
to Bakersfield
Bakersfield
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 111.6
111.6 miles
miles
Total
travel
time:
2
hours,
Total travel time: 2 hours, 18
18 minutes
minutes
Driving
Driving time:
time: 22 hours,
hours, 18
18 minutes
minutes
Cost:
Cost: $124.99
$124.99
LA
LA to
to Phoenix
Phoenix
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 372.9
372.9 miles
miles
Total
Total travel
travel time:
time: 77 hours,
hours, 12
12 minutes
minutes
Driving
time:
7
hours,
12
minutes
Driving time: 7 hours, 12 minutes
Cost:
Cost: $417.67
$417.67
LA
LA to
to Border
Border
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 136.2
136.2 miles
miles
Total
travel
time:
2
hours,
Total travel time: 2 hours, 57
57 minutes
minutes
Driving
Driving time:
time: 22 hours,
hours, 57
57 minutes
minutes
Cost:
Cost: $152.52
$152.52
LA
LA to
to Barstow
Barstow
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 133.7
133.7 miles
miles
Total
travel
time:
3
hours,
Total travel time: 3 hours, 44 minutes
minutes
Driving
Driving time:
time: 33 hours,
hours, 44 minutes
minutes
Cost:
Cost: $149.79
$149.79
Exhibit 91: Current Regional Truck Cost Examples
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Chapter 7 – Regional Trends & Challenges
Potential Congestion Impacts on Regional Trucking
•
The study team developed estimates of driving time and cost under significantly
increased highway congestion. Note that the cost per mile increase as speed
drops to keep driver earnings at an acceptable level. For illustrative purposes
costs were estimated at $1.55 per mile.
LA
LA to
to Bakersfield
Bakersfield
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 111.6
111.6 miles
miles
Base
travel
time:
2
hours,
Base travel time: 2 hours, 18
18 minutes
minutes
New
New travel
travel time:
time: 44 hours,
hours, 36
36 minutes
minutes
Base
Base Cost:
Cost: $124.99;
$124.99; New
New Cost
Cost $172.98
$172.98
LA
LA to
to Phoenix
Phoenix
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 372.9
372.9 miles
miles
Base
travel
time:
7+
hours
Base travel time: 7+ hours
New
New travel
travel time:
time: 14
14 hours,
hours, 30
30 minutes
minutes
Base
Cost:$417.67;
New
Cost
Base Cost:$417.67; New Cost $578.02
$578.02
LA
LA to
to Border
Border
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 136.2
136.2 miles
miles
Base
Base travel
travel time:
time: 22 hours,
hours, 57
57 minutes
minutes
New
travel
time:
6
hours
New travel time: 6 hours
Base
Base Cost:
Cost: $152.52;
$152.52; New
New Cost
Cost $211.07
$211.07
LA
LA to
to Barstow
Barstow
Driving
Driving distance:
distance: 133.7
133.7 miles
miles
Base
Base travel
travel time:
time: 33 hours,
hours, 44 minutes
minutes
New
travel
time:
6
hours
New travel time: 6 hours
Base
Base Cost:
Cost: $149.79;
$149.79; New
New Cost
Cost $207.30
$207.30
Exhibit 92: Impacts of Congestion
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Chapter 7 – Regional Trends & Challenges
Rail Business Development
Both BNSF and UP have strict operating and economic criteria for commencing new local service, continuing
existing local service, and abandoning local service to local industry on their main and branch lines.
§ Railroads are profit-motivated, as are all commercial carriers. They will seek and encourage shorthaul or local traffic that seems likely to generate and adequate return on investment and on the
marketing and management efforts involved. At a minimum, they seek a positive “contribution” –
operating revenue above incremental operating expense.
§ Railroads look at length of haul as a proxy for profitability: the longer the potential trip on their lines,
the more likely they will be to pursue the opportunity.
§ Railroads, with some justification, view the start-up of new services as much more costly, and
therefore a higher threshold to pass, than adding traffic to existing services. Thus, they are more
likely to seek additional traffic within their current operations plan than encourage traffic growth that
will require new “train starts”.
What service a railroad elects to provide is the single most critical aspect of understanding the potential for
modal shift from truck to rail service. This is a complex issue. It varies with each railroad, each commercial
opportunity, and over time as opportunities evolve.
§ Long-haul moves are the preferred shipments for railroads, particularly if some other party will provide
capital for the necessary attendant terminal/transload facilities and the fleet of cars in the unit train.
§ Railroads favor long haul traffic, traffic moving in unit train service (including intermodal), and mixed
trains providing inbound carload service of selected commodities susceptible to transloading from rail
car to truck for final delivery.
§ There is a willingness to handle miscellaneous carload traffic as long as it moves within the confines
of the local service and does not require either incremental investments or changes in other services.
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Relevant Rail Industry Trends
Use of contractors
§ Both BNSF and UP recognize an opportunity to subcontract for local service to industry on branch
lines and mainlines when the expected cost is high to the Class I but potentially attractive to a
contractor with a different operating model.
§ Some contracting is occurring on both systems, and regional operating personnel are alert to further
opportunities. To combine such subcontracting with an opportunity to provide a new local, short-haul
service, however, is an extension of the concept not yet commonly implemented.
§ To the extent that acceptance and accommodation could be encouraged would open an opportunity
for a new type of local rail service not available in the SCAG region, particularly in the inner core of
the LA Basin.
Sales and abandonment of rights of way
§ Both the BNSF and the UP have completed their planned sales of lines.
§ It is believed that there are few if any lines in the LA Basin that are candidates for voluntary sale or
abandonment.
§
Neither railroad tends to retain rights to abandoned rights of way for possible, future expansion of rail
service.
Cooperation with short line railroads
§ Both the BNSF and the UP have a history of favorable relationships with shortline companies.
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Passenger Rail “Conflicts”
•
In addition to the freight operations a large number of daily passenger trains are operated in the region by
Metrolink on a combination of tracks owned by the Southern California Regional Rail Authority (SCRRA) or
on the freight railroads under trackage rights arrangements. While these passenger trains operate primarily
during the morning and evening commuter hours they compete for available track space. This additional
passenger traffic limits the ability of the rail infrastructure to host increasing numbers of freight trains in the
future.
•
Part of the problem is that freight and passenger operations may not easily be integrated. Passenger
service is designed to move large numbers of people and trains on tightly controlled schedules during
specific time periods, primarily the commuting hours. This usually entails a number of stops and starts at a
number of intermediate stations along a given route.
•
Freight service, on the other hand, generally operates nonstop from the origin point to destination, or an
intermediate destination, but in any event, without the starts and stops associated with the commuter
operation and on the same tracks. A second aspect of the freight operation and service is that some of it
may also be scheduled, in particular the intermodal traffic. This service is usually long haul, between LA
and Chicago for example, where customers require their shipments to be delivered by a specific time.
Hence departure times are to a large extent determined by the delivery requirements, e.g. UPS. Service
schedules cannot be easily changed to accommodate the passenger operation.
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Capacity and Traffic Growth
•
There are no detailed public data on the present or expected usage and performance of the private rail
system. Further the expected usage and performance is dependent on the commercial decisions made by
the two companies.
•
It is generally believed that the expected growth in rail intermodal service, primarily due to the projections
for increased imports at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, will fill the existing capacity of both
railroads within the LA Basin sometime before 2025. Hence, both companies face major decisions about
the nature of the shipments that they will attempt to secure based on their individual service design plans
and ability to raise capital to expand capacity.
•
In general the routes in the LA basin used by both services are 40 to 50 MPH tracks for freight, and higher
for passenger. What may be required on these heavy service routes is construction of additional main
tracks in order to increase capacity. In part this is already being planned for the segment of the BNSF
between the LAUPT connection and Fullerton Junction, with new third and fourth main tracks to be added
with construction completion scheduled for early 2003.
•
For example, the BNSF Cajon route east from San Bernardino currently hosts 90-95 train movements daily.
If continued annual growth is conservatively estimated at three percent annually for the next five years,
about three trains a day will be added on this route alone each year, or upwards of 110-115 a day or more,
in the out years. While the railroad personnel say that they have operated as many as 115 trains a day this
has been in emergencies or under short term conditions. They also say that capacity can do some extent
be created by operating longer trains. This can be the case on the lower grade portions. On the heavy
mountain grades, however, this is a more limited option.
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International Traffic Growth
•
The ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles are very dependent on landside intermodal connectors. Both are
immediately contiguous to major freeways with substantial congestion. Both are in and near areas in the LA
Basin that have projections for substantial increases in population, employment and land use in trade and
transportation industries.
§ Cargo volumes are forecast to triple by 2025
§ The effect of “on-dock” rail facilities and their direct connection to the Alameda Corridor will mature.
§ The Ports will spend $6 billion on their facilities including the portion of the rail and highway access
that they control.
•
The growth in international intermodal traffic will be the major source of pressure on rail infrastructure,
capacity, and operations.
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Capital for expansion
•
Railroad rights of way are private property usually owned by the railroad that operates on the line. In a few
instances, the rights of way are owned by other entities. In the case of the SCAG region, Metrolink owns
some right of way, as does the San Jacinto Branch Line, which is owned by Riverside County.
•
As private property, the capital necessary to maintain, expand or contract the system is discretionary with
the owner. In the SCAG region, due to economic growth, particularly imports through the Ports of Los
Angeles and Long Beach, the BNSF and the UP have a history of keeping the mainline in excellent
condition, slowly abandoning many branch and local service lines, rapidly expanding intermodal facilities,
and encouraging private capital investments in transload facilities on the mainlines. These decisions are
driven by commercial considerations and corporate capital allocation processes. Both of these are outside
of the control of SCAG.
•
The Alameda Corridor and the Alameda Corridor East projects included in the 2001 RTP are two of the
most significant current investments of public-private capital to improve rail right of way in the U.S. Both
projects have very attractive characteristics for improving mobility on arterials and local streets crossed by
the rail lines. There are possibilities for additional cooperative efforts in the SCAG region, but none are
included in the 2001 RTP. There is one additional study just commencing that proposes to study the
need/opportunity to reserve additional lands for expansion purposes through Cajon Pass on I-15 and the
mainlines of both the BNSF and the UP.
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Corridor designation and preservation
The 2001 RTP introduced a powerful concept – that of corridor preservation.
§ There is an opportunity to identify and catalog all prior and existing railroad rights of way and to
preserve them for future expansion of services requiring some kind of right of way, including heavy
freight rail.
§ Of particular interest would be two types of freight rail rights of way. The first is existing branch and
local service lines. The second is previous branch and local service lines that have been abandoned
but are in position to be reactivated. Future usage of these could be controlled to allow restoration to
rail service.
§ Subject to the final physical layout of the Alameda Corridor and the Alameda Corridor East, there is
an opportunity to preserve for local rail service the surface level local rail and sidings that parallel
these projects so that local industry continues to be able to access rail service. These routes are
particularly important to any future diversion of shipments from truck to rail, as they are in the heart of
the geographical area where the greatest congestion is expected on the highway system and where
the land use is already zoned for industrial and commercial usage.
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Modal Diversion Potential
•
The trucking industry is facing difficult times in Southern California and elsewhere.
•
Increased carload rail service would reduce congestion but has practical limits.
§ Well-designed short-haul rail moves can serve niche markets.
§ “Short-line” rail operators are sometimes, but not always, successful in increasing carload traffic on
the lines they operate.
•
Truck-rail transloading has significant potential to increase the use of rail carload service for line-haul freight
transportation.
•
Intermodal transportation also has significant potential to mitigate congestion on major interregional access
routes, but would not reduce local trips in the central region.
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Short-haul rail carload service potential
•
Well-designed short-haul rail moves can serve niche markets, especially where they can either justify a new
train move or add incremental traffic to an existing train.
§ There are already many rail movements within California.
§ The 500-1000 mile trip range, however, does not include large new freight markets outside
California.
•
Typical short-haul rail carload movements include regional transfers of bulk materials (e.g. sand & gravel,
chemicals), and inter-plant moves as part of a production process.
•
There are three major barriers to expanded short-haul carload service:
§ Local switching moves are relatively costly, especially for large, line-haul railroads with high labor
costs. Such moves also generate significantly higher emissions than line-haul rail trips.
§ Neither the revenue and profit potential for the railroad nor the cost savings potential for the customer
are likely to justify the high cost of new trackage where sidings do not exist.
§ The lower revenue and profit potential of short-haul movements also make it difficult for line-haul
railroads to devote scarce track capacity or operating “slots” to such traffic if longer-haul moves are
available.
•
The lower-cost operations of short-line and switching railroads such as Pacific Harbor Line or the Ventura
County Railway offer a solution to high switching costs, but also require an additional interchange
movement and revenue sharing.
•
Rail-truck transloading, discussed extensively elsewhere in this report, offers a way around the access
problem.
•
The allocation of scarce track capacity is a tougher problem, and a major long-term public policy issue.
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Rail Miles to Major Markets
Exhibit 93: Rail Miles to Major Markets
Rail Miles from Los Angeles
0
San Bernardino
San Diego
Barstow
El Centro
Bakersfield
Needles
LasVegas
Fresno
Phoenix
San Francisco
Oakland
Stockton
Tuscon
Sacramento
Redding
Salt Lake City
El Paso
Albuquerque
Portland
Denver
Seattle
Dallas
Oklahoma City
Houston
Kansas City
New Orleans
St Louis
Chicago
Atlanta
Memphis
500
59
94
140
1000
1500
REGIONAL MARKETS
221
279
308
324
377
425
470
487
498
502
542
714
783
874
889
2000
2500
NATIONAL MARKETS
1188
1353
1370
1460
1490
1641
1776
1966
2032
2227
2285
2306
Source: Rand McNalley
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Rail Miles to Major Markets
Exhibit 94: Rail Miles From Los Angeles
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Short-line rail potential
•
Short-line operators can often provide local switching and industrial service at lower costs than line-haul
carriers.
•
“Short-line” rail operators are often successful in increasing carload traffic on the lines they operate. Key
factors in short-line success include:
§ Creative use of rail assets and infrastructure, such as transloading operations
§ Realistic market assessment and adequate long-term traffic potential
§ Good working relationships with line-haul railroad connections
§ Responsiveness to customers
•
The potential for short-line operations in the SCAG region could include:
§ Existing short line operations such as PHL, VCY, and Los Angeles Junction
§ A few existing branch lines, such as the San Jacinto Brach Line
§ Service to major new industrial parks and plants
•
The long-term potential for greater short-line rail service in the SCAG region is limited:
§ UP and BNSF have largely completed their branch line abandonment and rationalization programs,
and there are few branch lines left that would be suitable for short-line operations
§ Railroad branch lines and secondary main lines are attractive candidates for high-priority rail
passenger and commuter services such as Metrolink.
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Truck- rail transload potential
•
Truck-rail transloading has significant potential to increase the use of rail carload service for line-haul freight
transportation.
§ Truck-rail transloading offers the easiest access to rail carload service.
§ Both major railroads see transloading as a business opportunity and a source of traffic growth.
Sometimes railroads use transloading to compete with other railroads instead of with trucks.
§ Short lines such as PHL have developed transloading programs and facilities to expand their market
•
Transloading is not without its limitations, however:
§ Transloading may be seen as an undesirable land use by local communities.
§ Truck-rail transloading requires local/regional pick-up and delivery via truck, and is adversely affected
by regional highway congestion.
§ Truck-rail transloading would reduce long-haul truck traffic on major regional access routes, but would
not reduce the number of local truck trips.
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Candidate Transload Commodities
•
A recent private Southern California study ranked commodities as candidates for transloading with the
results shown below. The criteria included revenue potential, employment potential, and environmental
“friendliness.” The top two commodity choices, consumer goods and foods and beverages, are not so often
transloaded without intermediate storage in distribution center inventory. Other candidates such as paper,
building materials, and minerals are commonly transloaded in both private and commercial facilities.
Exhibit 95: Candidate Transload Commodities
Candidate Commodity Ranking
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
ND Consumer Goods
Food & Bev
Paper
Building Materials
Autos
Consumer Durables
Unit. Industrial Goods
Trucks
Industrial Durables
Industrial Supplies
Dry Minerals
Dry Food & Ag
Metals
Heavy Equip
Dry Chemicals
Liq. Food & Ag
Liq. Chemicals
Liq. Petro Prod
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Intermodal Potential
•
Intermodal transportation has significant potential to mitigate congestion on major interregional access
routes.
§ Rail-truck intermodal service offers the easiest transition from over-the-highway truck transportation.
§ Major truckload, less-than-truckload,a and parcel motor carriers already use intermodal service and
see it as a growth area.
§ The SCAG region has excellent intermodal service with adequate near-term capacity.
•
Intermodal service, however, requires local/regional pick-up and delivery via truck (drayage), and is
adversely affected by regional highway congestion.
•
Diversion of freight to intermodal service would reduce long-haul truck traffic on major regional access
routes, but would not reduce local trips.
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Shorter Intermodal Markets
•
Typical “breakeven” mileage for intermodal is 600-900 miles.
•
Reducing the “breakeven” distance from Southern California does not gain access to any large new
markets, but could be the key to diversion of traffic between Northern and Southern California along I-5.
Exhibit 96: Intermodal Market Reach
Conceptual
Conceptual
Truckload
Intermodal
Rail Carload
Rail Unit Train
Breakeven Zone for Intermodal
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Distance in Miles
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Short-Haul Intermodal Potential
•
If it is managed effectively, intermodal transportation can be successful at distances of under 300 miles.
•
Tioga facilitated a panel discussion on short-haul intermodal operations at a recent industry conference.
Three successful case studies were examined.
§ CH Robinson Rail Division. Intermodal operations on regional railroad Iowa Interstate managed by
IRG Transportation, a division of CH Robinson Worldwide (a major Intermodal Marketing Company).
§ Triple Crown. Triple Crown is a subsidiary of Norfolk Southern that operates a RoadRailer network in
the eastern states
§ CP Expressway. CP Expressway is a part of Canadian Pacific (CP North America) that operates “Iron
Highway” cars between Montreal, Toronto, and Detroit
§ Amtrak Mail and Express. Amtrak’s Mail and Express division handles postal services, small package,
and express freight shipments using baggage cars, special boxcars,a and RoadRailers on Amtrak
passenger trains.
CH
CH Robinson
Robinson Rail
Rail Division
Division
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CP
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Short-Haul Intermodal Potential
Conventional Wisdom
•
The conventional wisdom in the intermodal industry is that the break even distance between truckload
motor carrier services and rail intermodal services is 500-750 miles. This view is held so strongly that it
could be described as an article of faith for many in the industry.
Vision
•
A successful short-haul intermodal operation requires a non-traditional vision aimed at freight moving over
the road. Short-haul intermodal is an entirely different service than the transcontinental, lane-oriented
double-stack service Short-haul advocates are working against traditional railroad culture, much in the
same way as the founders of intermodal rail services were
Economics
•
As short haul margins are relatively small, volume must be correspondingly large in order to make the
enterprise financially rewarding. There is much more freight in the short haul market, however, than in the
traditional long haul rail intermodal market. Margins are smaller, so assets must be intensely managed to
produce a satisfactory return
§ Marketing plan is smart and focused
§ Operation/Equipment utilization is managed as network
§ Terminals are smaller, cheaper, faster, and well located
§ Drayage is minimized
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Short-Haul Intermodal Terminal and Drayage Requirements
•
Fast terminals (turn time 15 min or less) are characteristic of successful short-haul intermodal operations. In
general this means that:
§ The short haul business can not tolerate the large, congested, slow, and expensive terminals
presently serving the transcontinental unit trains
§ Terminals are relatively faster, smaller, and lower volume operations (100,000 units or less)
§ Terminals are simpler, cheaper, less environmentally intrusive, and more likely to qualify for public
investment
•
Drayage costs must be minimized
§ Drayage is relatively more expensive than rail line haul in general
§ In the the short haul market where rail line haul miles are low, drayage becomes a more significant
cost element
§ The fast terminal turn time for draymen keeps cost low
§ The smaller, less costly terminals associated with the short haul business can be located near
customer clusters to keep drayage distances low
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Short-Haul Intermodal Operations and Marketing
Each successful case study involved managing networks rather than lanes.
§Network operations and profitability rather than lane by lane operations and profitability
§Triangulation to achieve balance
§Mutually supporting terminal points
In each case, intense equipment management was viewed as both cost effective and essential. There was no
single approach to equipment technology.
§C.H. Robinson is using 53’ trailers on conventional rail cars
§Amtrak is using RoadRailers and special box cars
§Triple Crown is using RoadRailers
§CP Expressway is using a special, efficient circus-loading flat car and highway standard, non-reinforced
trailers
Each successful operation had a clearly defined, specific market focus
§AMTRAK -- Premium service at a premium price for USPS and Perishable shippers
§C.H. Robinson -- Geographical focus on shippers in central Iowa along Route I-80
§Triple Crown -- Initially focused on the Midwest market for the auto industry, now expanding and
broadening its truckload motor carrier market.
§CP Expressway -- Exclusively truckload motor carriers in the Montreal/Toronto/Detroit corridor
High frequency is not currently a part of any of these operations. CP Expressway, however, ultimately plans to
increase frequency up to one train per hour in the Chicago, Detroit, Toronto, Montreal, New York market.
Value added services contribute to the successful operations.
§Amtrak provides logistics services to the Post Office up to and including sorting mail on the train
§CP Expressway and Triple Crown use their data systems to differentiate
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