'The best book I know on how to make a decision."
—Roger Fisher, Coauthor of the bestseller Getting to YES:
Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In
A Practical
Guide to
Making
Better
Decisions
John S. Hammond
Ralph L. Keeney
Howard Raiffa
Contents
Preface
1
Making Smart Choices
vii
1
How to think about your whole decision problem:
a proactive approach
2
Problem
15
How to define your decision problem to solve the right
problem
3
Objectives
31
How to clarify what you're really trying to achieve with your
decision
4
Alternatives
How to make smarter choices by creating better alternatives
to choose from
47
5
Consequences
How to describe how well each alternative meets your
objectives
65
vi
Contents
6 Tradeoffs
How to make tough compromises when you can't achieve
all your objectives at once
83
7 Uncertainty
109
How to think about and act on uncertainties affecting your
decision
8 Risk Tolerance
How to account for your appetite for risk
135
9 Linked Decisions
163
How to plan ahead by effectively coordinating current and
future decisions
10 Psychological Traps
189
How to avoid some of the tricks your mind can play on you
when you're deciding
11 The Wise Decision Maker
How to make smart choices a way of life
217
A Roadmap to Smart Choices
235
About the Authors
243