February 2003
Dear friends and colleagues,
The soldiers' votes, which were not counted when I wrote my last report, increased the
power of the right by two seats: one seat to the Likud, at the expense of One Nation; and
another seat to the National Religious Party, Mafdal, at the expense of the Communist party
Hadash. The final results of the election accordingly are:
Likud to the right:
Likud 38 seats
National Unity (Ivet Libermann) 7
Israel Baaliya 2
Israel Baaliya merged with Likud, total 40 seats.
Religious parties:
Shas 11
Mafdal 6
Jewish Torah 5
Right + religious: 69
Accordingly, if Sharon wishes he could easily comprise a right wing coalition. At present,
Sharon declared this is not his wish. He even said that he will not invite Libermann to sit in
his government.
Center:
Shinuy 15
Labour to the left:
Labour 19
Meretz 6
Hadash 3
One Nation (Amir Peretz) 3
Arab/Palestinian parties
Balad (Azmi Bshara) 3
Raam (Muslim) 2
Labour + left + Arabs: 36
Mitzna declared that he won't join a coalition headed by the Likud prior elections. Last week
he negotiated entry with Sharon. I hope these are just noises, so as to say that he did not
turn his back without first exploring the situation. If he will join the coalition, then he will give
up on himself as a credible leader and immediately transform from a decent politician to just
one more liar.
Sharon could still comprise a coalition with Shinuy, One Nation and Mafdal:
Likud 40
Shinuy 15
Mafdal 6
One Nation 3
Total: 64.
This might not be sufficient if he intends to make some significant steps to increase our
security in the region, either by even more radical steps to eradicate Hamas and the Islamic
Jihad, or by evacuating settlements and withdrawing IDF troops from the occupied
territories.
The keys are therefore with Mitzna, which means that he will be under mounting pressure
during the next few weeks. Time will tell if he is able to cope with pressure and to present
himself as a leader of some stature.
People in Israel are living under the shadow of the upcoming war. I think it would be very
difficult to turn the wheels back. When one sends 150,000 soldiers to fight and is riding a
tiger, it is quite difficult to halt the tiger and return him into the cage. Attached please find a
psychological profile of Saddam Hussein. The insightful profile was prepared by Dr. Jerrold
Post for a conference on Key Adversaries sponsored by the U.S. Air Force
Counterproliferation Center.
Dr. Post has devoted his entire career to the field of political psychology. Dr. Post came to
George Washington after a 21 year career with the Central Intelligence Agency where he
founded and directed the Center for the Analysis of Personality and Political Behavior, an
interdisciplinary behavioral science unit which provided assessments of foreign leadership
and decision making for the President and other senior officials to prepare for Summit
meetings and other high level negotiations and for use in crisis situations. He played the lead
role in developing the "Camp David profiles" of Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat for
President Jimmy Carter and initiated the U.S. government program in understanding the
psychology of terrorism. He served as expert witness in the trial in the Spring of 2001 for the
al Qaeda terrorists responsible for the bombing of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and
Tanzania, and, since 9/11, has testified before the Senate, the House of Representatives,
and the United Nations. I think you may find interest in his analysis.
One fact that I wish to bring to your attention that is missing in the profile: In the mid-1980s
the then Iraqi Minister of Defence who was also Saddam's brother in law was killed in a
helicopter accident. There were strong allegations, affirmed by Iraqi sources, that Saddam
was behind that accident. There are rumours that the current Minister of Defence is out of
favour.
Shabbat Shalom, with my very best wishes,
Rafi