Y7
SUPPORT
SUMMER TERM
UNIT: Statistics 3 - Probability.
TIME ALLOCATION: 8 Hours
PRIOR KNOWLEDGE
 To be able to use language of
probability to describe events,
and place on a probability line,
giving reasons. Say whether an
everyday event is likely or
unlikely to happen.
 To be able to complete a
simple experiment (collecting
& tabulating) and draw simple
inferences.
KEY WORDS
dice, outcome, probability,
likelihood, probability scale,
fair, random, likely, equally
likely, experiment, tally,
frequency, estimate, spin,
spinner
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
LEVEL 4
 Use vocabulary and ideas of
probability, drawing on experience.

STARTER
Understand and use the probability
scale from 0 to 1; find and justify
probabilities based on equally likely
outcomes in simple contexts; identify
all the possible mutually exclusive
outcomes of a single event.

Collect data from a simple experiment
and record in a frequency table;
estimate probabilities based on this
data.

Compare experimental and theoretical
probabilities in simple contexts.
Higher/Lower game with cards
LEARNING OUTCOMES
Say whether an everyday event is likely or unlikely
to happen, e.g. match one of the words Likely,
Unlikely, Certain or Uncertain to statements such
as:



It will snow next Christmas.
I will watch television tonight.
It will get dark tonight.
To be able to use a probability scale from 0 –1.
To be able to use the language of probability
to describe events (certain, impossible, even
chance …) and place on a probability line, giving
reasons. Eg: Probability of a) throwing a 9 on a
1-6 die; b) a coin landing on Heads.
To be able to describe a probability based on
equally likely outcomes using a fraction:
Probability of an event =
Number of events favourable to the outcome
Total number of possible events
Eg: 1 – 99 bingo game: What fraction
would you use to describe these events: a)
picking 44? b) a number greater than 60?
d) an odd number?
Express probabilities as fraction, decimal or
percentage.
To be able to identify all the possible
outcomes of a single event.
To be able to collect data from a simple
experiment and work out estimated
(experimental) probabilities and draw simple
inferences.
Eg: A fairground spinner is marked 1 – 6.
3 is a win. Predict how often this should occur.
Check by conducting an experiment (with a 1 –
6 die). Why are the 2 two probabilities
different?
ACTIVITIES
ICT
Carry out an experiment, e.g.
coloured counters taken from a
bag. Do the experiment twice to
demonstrate the difference in
the results but take out a counter
as many as fifty times in each
experiment to demonstrate
similarities. Use the results to
give experimental probabilities.
Indicate these on a 0 to 1 line.
Y7 Bring on the Maths
Probability: v1, v2
KS3 Top-up Bring on the
Maths
Probability: v1
ATM Mathematical
problem solving
~ Dice file questions
MyMaths – Game
Probability/Play Your Cards
Right.
RESOURCES
FUNCTIONAL SKILLS and MPA OPPORTUNITIES
PLENARIES AND KEY QUESTIONS
Am I more likely to roll a 2 than a 6? Can I expect to roll more even numbers or more odd numbers?
Which number do you think will occur most frequently?
Where on the line would you put the event ... ?
Is ... more likely than ... ?
The probability it will rain tomorrow is ½ - True or False? Why?
If I flip a coin 1000 times will I get 500 heads?
If you repeat an experiment, will you always / sometimes / never get the same result?
When you spin a coin, the probability of getting a head is ½. So if you spin a coin ten times you
would get exactly five heads. Is this statement true or false? Why?
You toss a coin 100 times and count the number of times you get a head. A robot is
programmed to toss a coin 1000 times. Who is most likely to be closer to getting equal
numbers of heads and tails? Why?
Make up examples of equally likely outcomes with given probabilities, e.g. 0.5, 1/6, 0.2, etc.
Justify your answers.