ГОДИШНИК НА МИННО-ГЕОЛОЖКИЯ УНИВЕРСИТЕТ “СВ. ИВАН РИЛСКИ”, Том 57, Св. II, Добив и преработка на минерални суровини, 2014
ANNUAL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MINING AND GEOLOGY “ST. IVAN RILSKI”, Vol. 57, Part ІI, Mining and Mineral processing, 2014
RISK MANAGEMENT OF DISASTROUS EVENTS ON FLOTATION TAILINGS IN "RTB
BOR" SERBIA
Nenad Živković 1, Emina Mihajlović 2, Ljiljana Živković 3, Aca Božilov 4
1 University
of Niš, Faculty of Occupational Safety of Niš, 18000 Niš, Čarnojevića 10a, nenad.zivkovic @znrfak.ni.ac.rs
of Niš, Faculty of Occupational Safety of Niš, 18000 Niš, Čarnojevića 10a, emina.mihajlovic @znrfak.ni.ac.rs
3University of Niš, Faculty of Occupational Safety of Niš, 18000 Niš, Čarnojevića 10a, ljiljana.zivkovic @znrfak.ni.ac.rs
4University of Niš, Faculty of Occupational Safety of Niš, 18000 Niš, Čarnojevića 10a, aca.bozilov @znrfak.ni.ac.rs
2 University
ABSTRACT. Flotation tailing dams are necessary mining facility from technological point of view, whereas in terms of environmental protection they are a real threat
to humans and the environment, regardless of whether they are operational or the process of disposal has been completed. In southeastern Serbia, on the territory of
Bor municipality, there are two active flotation tailings: Flotation Tailing RTH and Flotation Tailing Veliki Krivelj, which represent a potential threat of accidents.
Occurrence of accidents should be the subject of research with the aim to recognize the mechanism of their generation, range and scope of environmental threat and
risk assessment, in order to initiate the demands for the design and installation of safety systems with reliability that is higher than the total probability of danger.
This article presents a risk management system in emergency situations in Flotation Tailing RTH and Flotation Tailing Veliki Krivelj which are part of the company
"RTB Bor". The organizational structure of the risk management system in emergency situations has been based on the model of an integrated protection and rescue
system in emergency situations. The aim of this paper is to answer the question whether the development of safety in emergency situations in Flotation Tailing RTH
and Flotation Tailing Veliki Krivelj created conditions for the construction of a disaster resistant system.
УПРАВЛЕНИЕ НА РИСКА ОТ СЪБИТИЯ С КАТАСТРОФАЛНИ ПОСЛЕДИЦИ ВЪВ ФЛОТАЦИОННИТЕ
ХВОСТОХРАНИЛИЩА В “РТБ БОР“ СЪРБИЯ
Ненад Живкович 1, Емина Михайлович 2, Лиляна Живкович 3, Аца Божилов 4
1 Университет в Ниш, Факултет по безопасност на труда, 18000 Ниш, Чарнојевића 10a, nenad.zivkovic @znrfak.ni.ac.rs
2 Университет в Ниш, Факултет по безопасност на труда, 18000 Ниш, Чарнојевића 10a, emina.mihajlovic @znrfak.ni.ac.rs
3 Университет в Ниш, Факултет по безопасност на труда, 18000 Ниш, Чарнојевића 10a, ljiljana.zivkovic @znrfak.ni.ac.rs
4 Университет в Ниш, Факултет по безопасност на труда, 18000 Ниш, Чарнојевића 10a, aca.bozilov @znrfak.ni.ac.rs
РЕЗЮМЕ. Флотационните хвостохранилища от аспект на технологията представяват необходим минен обект, а от гледна точка на околната среда те са
реална опасност за хората и околната среда, независимо от това дали са активни или пък процесът на съхраняване е завършен. В югоисточна Сърбия, в
околността на община Бор, съществуват две активни флотационни хвостохранилища: ФХ „РТХ“ и ФХ „Велики Кривел“, които представляват потенциална
опасност от аварии. Възникванията на аварии заслужават да бъдат предмет на изследване с цел да се определи механизма на тяхното образуване, обема
и обхвата на застрашаването на околната среда и да се направи оценка на риска, за да се инициират изискванията за проектиране и изграждане на
защитни системи, чиято надеждност трябва да бъде по-голяма от общата вероятност от опасност.
В тази статия е представена системата за управление на риска в извънредни ситуации във ФХ „РТХ“ и ФХ „Велики Кривел“, които са част от компанията
„РТБ“ Бор. Организационната структура на системата за управление на риска при извънредни ситуации е базирана върху модела на интегрирана защитна
система и спасяване и управление на извънредни ситуации. Целта на статията е да се даде отговор на въпроса дали в „РТБ“ Бор, с развитието на
концепцията на защита от катастрофи във ФХ „РТХ“ и ФХ „Велики Кривель“, са създадени условия за изграждане на система, която да е устойчива на
катастрофи.
of water, soil, plants, destruction of animal habitats, tailing
flows down the residential houses due to the release of
flotation sludge and its effluence in the form of slurry waves in
the downstream areas. Dangerous occurrences can lead to
sudden slides and faults in the drainage system and overflow
points on flotation storages, cracks on the collector due to the
pressures of sedimentary flotation, decay of the collector lining
due to acid environment and destabilization of the entire
flotation system..
Introduction
Flotation tailings dams are natural or artificially reconstructed
spaces for the accumulation of slurry (ground material and
chemically contaminated water). Tailings dams are used for:
tailings deposition, complete clarification of water, and the
accumulation of effluents required in the flotation process.
Safety of tailings dams refers not only to mining and
construction, but also to the safety of people living downstream
from tailing dams and the environment (Carlos and de Leon,
2006).
Flotation tailings "Veliki Krivelj" owned by the company RTB
Bor was built for the disposal of tailings from ore processing in
the plant for copper ore flotation. It was formed in the valley of
the Krivelj river and it consists of three dams constructed from
cycloned sand. It consists of two ponds with a total area of
about 226 ha, of which the field no. 1 occupies about 81 ha,
Tailings dams accidents occur due to the simultaneous
occurrence of hazardous conditions caused by natural
disasters, technical defects and combination of these two
causes. They trigger the environmental risks such as pollution
64
and the field no. 2 about 145 ha (Figure 1). About 190-195 Mt
of tailings have been deposited here. For the purpose of
OTICANJA the Krivelj River, the tunnel and the sewer were
built beneath the tailings dams. Before the dam was
constructed, it was necessary to build the tunnel, 1414 m long,
and the collector, 2075 m long, both 3 m in diameter. During
the exploitation, the there was a structural damage to the
concrete lining of the collector which was primarily caused by
unfavorable water chemistry and other negative influences.
The Bor River was also cut by Bor pit and ancillary facilities
around it, so that this water stream was also converted to the
Krivelj river by the tunnel, 2250 m long and 1.8 m in diameter.
The flow of the Bor River into the Krivelj river was located just
upstream of the intake structure in the tunnel axis of the river.
The tunnel \ sewer under the flotation tailings "Kriveljska reka"
carried waters of both the Krivelj River and the Bor River. So
far, the overhaul of the sewer under the flotation landfills
included cementing the concrete ring inside the sewer pipes,
so that the cross section was reduced from 3.0 m to 2.2 m.
Therefore, it is also significant for future remedial actions on
the tunnel and sewer, that there will be a reduction in sewer
capacity under the flotation tailings (RTB Bor*, 2013).
Downstream of the circuit of the Krivelj, the Bor and the
Ravna River, until the ravine of Rgotsko, the width of the valley
of the Bela River is 500 m. The average gradient of the bottom
of the valley is 0.6%. Along the left bank of the river valley
there are the railway line Bor - Zaječar and the road Donja
Bela Reka. There are no major settlements at this area. At
about 3 km downstream of the ravine, there is a village Rgotina
through which the Bela Reka River flows. Downstream of the
village Rgotina, the largest settlement is Vražogrnac and it is
located about 1.5 km from the confluence of the Bela Reka
River in the Timok River. Flotation tailing "RTH" is located
about 500 m east of Bor (Figure 1). It contains about 50-60 Mt
of tailings and covers an area of 86 h. Dams and peripheral
embankment are constructed from cycloned sand.
Definition of the disastrous event
The greatest danger on flotation tailings, with disastrous
consequences, is a potential dam breach and release of
tailings. This is how large overflow wave that moves
downstream of the tailings occurs (RTB Bor*, 2013). Tailings
related disastrous events took place in many countries around
the world: in the former Soviet Union, Chile (in 1967, when
more than 200 people were killed); in the USA; in Germany (in
Saxony in the 1960ies, 250 000 t of tailings flowed into the
river; in Romania (Baia Mare on January 30th 2000, the Mura,
the Tisa and the Danube River were poisoned with cyanides);
in Macedonia (in a copper mine Bučim and lead and zinc mine
Sasa in September 2003, the crater of 120-160 m appeared in
the tailing dump at a depth of 30-40 m; over 1.000.000 tonnes
of tailings spilled into the Kamenica river and lake Kalimanci,
the Bragalnica river and the surrounding area (UNISDR,
2002)).
The environment of the tailings is s as follows: Upstream the
Krivelj valley along the dam no.1 there are no settlements
except the mine facilities "Veliki Krivelj" and Flotation tailings
"Veliki Krivelj", all the way to the village of Veiliki Krivelj. Veliki
Krivelj village is located 4.4 km (in direct line). The width of the
valley upstream of the tailings dam no. 1 is 300-400 m. The
valley is covered with lush vegetation. Downstream of the dam
no.3 in the flotation pond no. 2, there is the village of Oštrelj
(about 1.5 km away), production facilities of the quarry (about
7.5 km away), and the village Rgotina about 11.8 km away.
The valley of the Krivelj River downstream of the dam no.3 to
the confluence of the Bor River and Ravna River is
straightforward, with a width of 200-300 m. The average
gradient of the bottom of the valley is 0.7%. Along the right
bank of the valley there are local roads. The largest settlement
in the area is Oštrelj.
Disaster is a sudden accident or extreme calamitous event
that causes great damage to the people and the environment.
Disasters happen quickly, with great intensity of impact,
randomly, not choosing the time, the place and the size of the
consequences in the affected area, and to the extent to which
local and regional resources cannot meet the needs of
vulnerable people in terms of eliminating the consequences
(USAID, 2008). They are the result of hazard, the vulnerability
of the affected territory (casualties and disruption of normal
activity) and a lack of ability or lack of adequate measures to
reduce the potential risk. The analyses of disasters often only
focus on risk and not on the community. It is important to
realize that the disaster itself may be caused by social, political
and economic environment. In most cases, the disaster is not
individual and isolated occurrence. Every disaster is further
complicated by human actions to mitigate the consequences.
Risk largely depends on the social system and relations of
power that affect different social groups. It is not enough just to
know the types of risk in order to understand the disaster, but
also a different level of vulnerability of different groups of
people, which is best understood in the context of the political
and economic systems that operate on a national and
international level.
Hazard can be defined as a dangerous condition or a
dangerous event that poses a potential threat and can be
harmful to people, property or the environment. Hazards can
be classified into two categories: natural hazards and hazards
caused by human activities. Natural hazards are those that are
caused by natural phenomena (meteorological, geological or
Fig 1. Layout view of the flotation tailings and environment (RTB Bor,
2013)
65
even biological origin). The examples of natural hazards are
cyclones, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that are
exclusively of natural origin. Landslides, floods, droughts and
fires are socio - natural hazards, since they are incurred by
both natural and human activities. For example, floods can
occur due to heavy rainfall, landslides or due to obstructions in
the drainage systems caused by municipal waste. Hazards
caused by human activities mainly occur due to human
negligence. They are associated with industrial facilities and
power plants, and they involve fire, explosion, release of
hazardous waste, dam breach or burst, etc. Every disaster
begins with a threat regardless of the fact it is known in
advance or not. Any threat, whether it is a natural, technical or
nuclear has the potential to cause serious adverse effects
rooted in every unwanted event. Event itself is not a threat,
hazard is threat; it is manifested in an actual harmful event and
has specific scenarios by where it happens.
uninhabited area cannot be considered a disaster, regardless
of its size. The flood is considered a disaster only when it has a
negative impact on humans, their activities and material assets
(property). Therefore, a disaster occurs only when hazard and
vulnerability encounter. It should also be noted that the risk
decreases with increasing capabilities and preparedness of
society and the environment to cope with the disaster.
Therefore, we must consider three main components in
accident management: hazard, vulnerability and disaster
preparedness. Disaster preparedness and response
capabilities are the strength (capacity) of a company, individual
or community to cope with, or prepare for prevention,
mitigation, or a quick recovery after the accident.
Risk is a measure of the expected losses due to hazards
that occurred in a given area during a specified time interval.
The risk of hazard is the function of that specific hazard and
losses that it could inflict. The degree of risk depends on: the
nature of hazards, vulnerability of affected elements, and the
economic value of these elements. Risk indicates the degree
of possible losses in urban areas depending on their exposure
to hazards and can be seen as the product of the probability of
risk and vulnerability. Risk assessment of hazardous activities
is a process, which determines the risk based on the
assessment of the probability of an accident and the possible
consequences on the life, health and the environment. Based
on risk assessment, it can be concluded whether the risk of
dangerous activities in a particular area is acceptable. It is
believed that the acceptable risk is the one that can be
controlled under certain conditions prescribed by the
regulations. If the risk cannot be controlled under certain
conditions, the risk can not be accepted. In order to determine
the levels and dimensions of risk, it is necessary to define risk
in terms of time and its stages, as precisely as possible. The
risk involves the following stages (USAID, 2008):
 Identification of accident risk;
 Modeling the development of an accident and
consequences;
 Vulnerability Analysis (qualitatively - the degree of
strength, and quantitative ranking);
 The method of response (response to the accident);
 Post-accident monitoring;
 Measures to eliminate the consequences of the
accident (recovery).
These stages indicate what can be done and what is
necessary to be done to avoid the accident.
Vulnerability can be defined as the degree to which a
particular society, system, service or geographic area may
withstand a specific hazard on account of its nature and
characteristics, as well as the distance from hazard-prone
areas. Vulnerability is defined as “the exposure to the cases,
stress and difficulties that a community is affected by”.
Chambers discusses the external and internal side of
vulnerability. The exterior side is related to external shocks and
stresses and internal side is associated with defenselessness,
incapacity to cope without damaging losses. Different views on
the vulnerability reveal that the term has been used in many
different contexts by many different authors, such as property
of an element, a system or a community to be influenced upon
or to be subject to damage, or the impact of unforeseen events
and stress on the communities. In the context of risk,
vulnerability is defined as an internal risk factor, opposite to
danger which is defined as an external risk factor. According to
Cardona (USAID, 2008) vulnerability is the result of three
factors:
 Physical fragility or exposure, linked to the
susceptibility of human settlements to be affected by
natural or social phenomena due to their location in
hazard-prone areas;
 Socio-economic fragility, linked with the predisposition
to suffer harm due to marginalization, social
segregation in human settlements, and due to poverty
and similar factors; and.
 Lack of resilience, related to the limitations of access
and mobilization of resources, and incapacity to
respond when it comes to absorbing the impact of a
disaster. It may be associated with underdevelopment
and the lack of risk management strategy.
Accidental risk management cycle
Accidental risk management cycle (Figure 2) implies the
sum of all activities, measures and programmes to be taken
before, during and after the accident in order to avoid
accidents, reduce its impact and recover from the damage
incurred. There are three key stages in the management of
accidental risks:
Vulnerability is characterized by the following factors: coping
capacity, robustness, resilience, exposure, sensitivity or
susceptibility. General characteristic of vulnerability is the fact
that the degree of vulnerability of infrastructure, community,
society, or process is associated with the size of a given
hazard. For example, in the case of earthquakes, majority of
the buildings is not vulnerable to tremors, while the majority of
buildings are vulnerable to strong earthquake. In that case, this
dependence of vulnerability could be explained by the strength
of hypothetical events. Each hazard is so-called trigger event,
which in combination with high levels of vulnerability
(inaccessibility, old and sick people, lack of awareness and
information, etc.) leads to disaster and the human and material
losses. For example, in case of tailings dams breach in an
1. Pre-accident stage: The activities undertaken in this
phase are aimed at reducing the potential financial loss in the
case of an accident. They can include for example, early
warning campaigns, strengthening the existing weak
structures, preparing plans for risk management in the
households and community, etc. The actions taken at this
stage are called preparedness and mitigation measures.
Preparedness - prevention includes protection and
66
precautionary measures to prevent the effects of the disaster.
This includes political and legislative measures related to
urban planning, that are not harmful to human well-being and
the ecosystem. In most cases, it is difficult to completely
prevent the natural disaster, and therefore, the following two
steps are very important. Mitigation reduces the risk of
disaster. The examples of mitigation may be the division into
zones, the appropriate land use, the objects with support in the
coastal areas or retention of vegetation on muddy terrains that
make firmer foundation, as well as education and
consciousness awareness. Preparedness is a state that aims
to reduce the casualties and damage to buildings and
infrastructure through rapid and efficient actions. Properly
implemented preparedness measures allow communities and
institutions to respond to disastrous situations in a quick an
organized way. Preparedness measures also include early
warning systems, plans and evacuation routes, and similar.
Accidental risk management on flotation tailings
“RTB BOR”
Accidental risk management cycle (Figure 2) implies the
Risk management includes a set of management methods and
techniques used to reduce the possibility of unwanted harmful
events and consequences, and to increase the likelihood of
achieving the intended results. As there is no single definition
of risk, there is also no single definition of risk management. It
is often defined as - a systematic process that includes
identifying and measuring the risks at which the objects and
the individuals are exposed to, as well as the selection and
implementation of the most appropriate methods to manage
these risks. The process of risk management is essentially a
multidisciplinary process which embodies various disciplines
and methods to solve risk related problems. In fact, it is a
systematic process of identification, examination and
evaluation of the possibility of damage in an organization or
individual; also, it can be seen as a systematic process for
selecting the best way to handle all the possible risks which is
consistent with the goals of the an organization or an
individual. The basic concept of risk management tends to shift
the risk from the framework of uncertainties and unknowns in
the framework of knowledge and probability. This process is
facilitated by gathering, processing and storing information
needed to understand the possible positive and negative
aspects of all the factors that may affect the realization of an
event. This process increases the likelihood of success, and
reduces both the probability of failure, as well as uncertainty
about achieving the overall goals of the organization. The
stages in risk management are presented in Figure 3.
Fig 2. Accidental risk management cycle (Khan et al., 2008)
2. The stage during the accident: It implies steps to be taken
for more effective care for the victims and reducing the harm
suffered. The actions taken at this stage are called measures
of current response to the accident.
3. Post-accident phase: It involves initiative to respond to the
accident with the aim to quicken the recover of the affected
population immediately after the accident occurred. These
activities are referred to as the measures of rapid - emergency
response and recovery. This goal can be achieved only after
the disaster took place. Response (immediate mitigation), the
return to normal conditions and rebuilding now became the
primary goal. Response (immediate mitigation) is a set of
actions taken immediately after the disaster in order to reduce
the number of human victims, provide assistance and mitigate
suffering, as well as to reduce the economic loss. Some of the
examples of this stage are the following: placing people in a
safe location and providing assistance in terms of food,
clothing and life essentials. Recovery (the return to normal
state) includes the activities undertaken at this stage to ensure
at least minimum human activities and the functioning of the
important facilities, as well as setting the guidelines for
normalization of the standard of living after the disaster. This
includes the construction of temporary housing and achieving a
certain standard of living. Reconstruction is a long-term
response to the effects of the disaster. At this stage, the
infrastructure, ecosystems and living conditions are being
renewed.
Fig 3. Risk Management Stages (Avdalovic et al., 2008)
The risk of dam failure or breach on the flotation tailings RTB
Bor arises from a number of circumstances:
 construction technology is such that new layers are
fully or partially based on a relatively weak loadbearing layers from the previous cycle of filling, which
reduces the overall stability of the structure;
 the dams are formed of a material without a clay core,
so that the level of incoming water is rather high, and
insufficient drainage may be the cause of the dam
damage or failure;
 poorly sized or neglected derivative facilities can cause
the dam breach during the intense rainfall;
 due to liquefaction, stronger earthquake would be
devastating for the flotation tailing dams;
67
Propagation speed of the front wave is 3.6 m/s. After that, the
speed of the front wave decreases and it is 2.2 m/s, so that it
arrives in the village Rgotina in 73 min, and in Vražogrnac in
170 min. The width of the flood zone ranges from 200 d0 300
m all the way to the ravine of Rgotinsko, and then expands to
reach 400 m near Rgotina, and 800 m near Vržognac. In
settlements Rgotina and Vražornac all the dwellings are
threatened. It is concluded that the maximum vulnerable zone
in the worst scenario of dam breach in the case of “Veliki
Krivelj" is 28 km. In the case of this scenario, the possible level
of accident is level 4, which is the regional level (RTB Bor*,
2013). The measures for the recovery of the tailings dams
"Veliki Krivelj" (RTB Bor*, 2013), under the control of RTB Bor
and the Government of the Republic of Serbia, indicate that the
likelihood of the occurrence of the worst scenario is considered
as unlikely. The evaluation of consequence, in these
conditions, ranges from significant to catastrophic. Therefore,
the consequences are severe and the risk is medium.
 the downstream slopes of the dam are not protected
against erosion;
 observation is not followed by the possibility of
automated warning.
The objectives of managing accidental risks – disasters on
flotation tailings rtb bor are the following:
 to provide conducting activities within the limits of
acceptable risk;
 to reduce or to avoid potential losses from hazards;
 to provide prompt and the appropriate assistance to
victims of disasters;
 to achieve rapid and efficient recovery.
Efficient risk management involves proper design, testing
and evaluation of risk exposure. A number of methods have
been developed for this aim and they are becoming more and
more sophisticated. Qualitative methods of "risk matrix" (SER
2010) will be applied in this case, Figure 4 and 5.
According to the defined scenarios, the simulation of two
typical scenarios was performed in the case of flotation tailings
RTH: Risk assessment of dam breach on the north side is the
scenario no. 1, and risk assessment of the dam breach on the
south side is the scenario no. 2 (RTB Bor, 2013). Slurry wave
in the scenario no.1 covers the area of about 1 km, starting
from the tailings and the pit of the old open pit mine. This area
is characterized by a dump of retention capacity in the central
part, while the parts immediately downstream the dam and
upstream of the entrance to the old open pit are extremely
steep. The time of from wave movement from the dam to the
entrance to the open pit is about 4 min. The average speed of
the waves is 17 km/h. The timing of the highest flow at the
entrance to the old open pit is approximately 13 min. Such a
short period severely limits the possibility of early warning and
completely prevents timely measures to protect property in the
affected area. In this area, there are no significant housing and
infrastructure facilities, there are only industrial buildings of
Mining and Smelting Plant Bor. However, water from the
tailings pond (containing a certain amount of tailings) could end
up in the pit of the old open pit mine, which would cause the
adverse economic and environmental consequences.
Calculations for Scenario 2 were done in 0 two cases: in the
case of the wave of “clean"water and the wave containing a
mixture of water and tailings. Slurry wave created by the dam
failure on the western part of the tailings RTH would endanger
the road and the railroad tracks right next to the tailings pond.
According to the predicted scenario, the wave would end in a
dump south of the tailings.
Fig 4. Matrix of the consequence indicators
Fig 5. Matrix of the risk assessment
According to the Regulation on content of Policy for accident
prevention and content and methodology for development of
safety report and Accident prevention policy (Official Gazette of
RS, No. 41/10), the analysis and modeling effects define the
potential scope of the accident and the consequences for
human life, health and the environment (SER 2010).
Water pressure can cause the demolition of road-railway
embankment which borders the above mentioned dump, road
and railway cutoff and the runoff of water from the dump to the
valley of the Bor river, where the village Slatina would be
endangered. Bor River valley is approximately constant in
width and it has a uniform longitudinal gradient. The level of
vegetation spread (which affects the propagation of the wave)
is moderate. The results of calculations for "clean" water and
the mixture show differences only at a relatively short distance
from the dam; downstream, these differences become less
noticeable. To the entrance to the affected village Slatina, the
largest flow is about 720 m3/s for the mixture, and about 550
m3/s for water, while at the exit of the village, in both cases,
the largest flow is about 300 m3/s. In the village Slatina, the
front wave arrives in about 6 min from dam failure, while the
peak wave arrives 10 min. The front part of the wave is out of
Following the above mentioned scenarios, we carried out the
simulation of risk assessments in the case of breach of dam
no.1, 2 and 3 in the flotation tailings "Veliki Krivelj". Risk
assessment of the dam no.1 breach shows that the zone of
vulnerability lies about 4 km upstream from the tailings dam
no.1, without threatening the settlement Krivelj (RTB Bor*,
2013). Likelihood of this scenario is low, and the
consequences range from insignificant to severe, and therefore
this is insignificant risk. Assessment risk of breach in the dam
no. 2 and no. 3 shows that the vulnerability area extends
downstream of the tailings dam to the confluence of the White
and the Timok River. The slurry wave ends up behind the
village Vražogrnac. The front wave reaches the ravine of
Rgotinsko, 10.3 km downstream from the dam in only 50 min.
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the village of Slatina in 18 min, and the peak wave in 25 min.
The flood wave reaches the confluence of the Bor and the
Krivelj River in 36 min, and the peak wave in 47 min. The
likelihood of accident in the worst case of dam breach scenario
in flotation tailings "RTH" is unlikely. The assessment of
consequences, in these cases, range from significant to
catastrophic. Unlikelihood of the dam breach accident
generates medium risk in the risk matrix.
References
Avdalovc. V., D. Cosic, S. Avdalovic. 2008. Risk management
in insurance. Faculty of Technical Sciences, Novi Sad, 188
p. (in Serbian)
Carlos, J., V. de Leon. 2006. Vulnerability. A Conceptual and
Methodological Review, Source, 4/2006, UNU-EHS, Bonn,
64 p.
Khan, H., L.G. Vasilescu, A. Khan. 2008. Disaster
Management CYCLE – a theoretical approach,
Management and Marketing Journal, 6, issue 1, 43-50.
RTB Bor. 2013. Safety report for the fotation tailing “Bor” (in
Serbian)
RTB Bor*. 2013. Safety report for the fotation tailing “Veliki
Krivelj” (in Serbian)
SER 2010 Regulation on content of accident prevention policy
and the content and methodology of Safety report and
Accident
protection
plan.
(in
Serbian)
http://www.merz.gov.rs/sites/default/files/Правилник%20о
%20садржини%20политике%20превенције%20удеса.pdf
UNISDR. 2002. Guidelines for reducing flood losses. United
Nations. http://www.unisdr.org/files/558_7639.pdf
USAID. 2008. Emergency management and vulnerability
assessment on a local level. (in Serbian)
Conclusion
Knowing the risk of disastrous events on flotation tailings is
necessary because it provides information that is needed to
improve prevention and preparedness and to create effective
early warning systems for disasters.
Apart from hazard and vulnerability, it is very important to
include another component in the accidental risk management
process: the ability and preparedness of the system to cope
with the disaster, in other words the strength of the society,
individual or community to resist or prepare for the prevention,
mitigation or a fast recovery after the accident.
Risk assessment of the dam FJ RTB Bor breach presented
in this paper, and carried out according to the methodology for
the development of the Safety report and Accident prevention
policy, where the modeling and analysis of their effects
demonstrated the possible scope of the accident and
consequences to the life and health of people and the
environment, shows that the risk of hazardous activities in the
analyzed area is acceptable and that it can be managed under
certain conditions prescribed by the regulations.
The article has been reviewed by prof. M. Michaylov.
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