WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev. 133 Harvard Negotiation Law Review Spring 2003 Articles DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT: PRINCIPLES FOR THE PROBLEM SOLVING ORGANIZATION Khalil Z. Shariffd1 Copyright (c) 2003 Harvard Negotiation Law Review; Khalil Z. Shariff Can institutions be purposefully designed to do a better job at managing conflict? The stakes are high in answering this question since the need for institutions that allow peaceful, pluralist societies to flourish has never been clearer. In an era of failed states, intractable ethnic conflict, and increasingly diverse societies, the design of public institutions that enable people to solve problems collectively is an ever-present challenge. The challenge is equally salient in the context of the international system: globalization demands a whole new set of approaches to international cooperation, where negotiated problem solving is often the only viable option. This is indeed an age of institution building at all levels. Imagine a society emerging from some sort of armed conflict. Though a peace agreement has been negotiated to halt the violence, the more significant challenge is to design a set of institutions that will allow this society to manage peacefully the ongoing conflicts about the shape of political, economic, and social life into the future. The commission charged with designing this set of political institutions quickly realizes that although these institutions must achieve several goals, their principal purpose is to create a permanent institutional capacity for collective problem solving. They turn to the dispute resolution literature to seek advice on the details of institutional design: how should the institutions be structured, who should the *134 members be, what processes should be centralized, how should decisions be made, how should issue areas be disaggregated and assigned? Can they use the fruits of dispute resolution literature to “hardwire” the institution in ways that will maximize its chances for peacefully resolving disputes? A situation such as this was faced by the United Nations negotiators and parties to the December 2001 Bonn Conference that sought to bring an end to years of civil war in Afghanistan. Though a cease-fire had been achieved, the political situation remained fragile. The task of the participants was thus not only to negotiate a settlement to the conflict, but to create an institutional set-up that would allow the various factions to work together in the future. The dispute resolution literature would no doubt have been able to provide much advice to Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi, who chaired the talks, on negotiation strategies to arrive at a settlement acceptable to all parties, but what advice was available on how best to design the institutions that the settlement created to maximize the chances for managing conflict in the future? The purpose of this article is to elaborate an answer to this question. It rests on the premise that managing ongoing conflict peacefully is a task of many social institutions, but that the prescriptions generated by the dispute resolution literature have focused primarily on improving individual behavior. In Section I, I present the case for adding an explicitly institutional focus to the prescriptive agenda of dispute resolution scholarship. Institutions, after all, are an integral part of modern life, and frequently managing conflict is an institution’s principal purpose and raison d’etre. Public institutions, for example, exist in large part to manage conflicts within political communities about the basic issues of political, economic, and social life. These institutions are vehicles for collective decision-making and problem solving, where citizens or their representatives with different interests, preferences, and ideals come together to agree on common solutions that allow them to live together peacefully. In the modern, developed democracies, these institutions take many forms: legislatures, administrative agencies, city councils, and courts are all examples of attempts to create institutional responses to ongoing social conflict. Other institutions-- business firms, for instance--may not be created in response to such social conflict, but must nevertheless manage the inevitable conflicts that emerge from the routine interactions between people carrying out their tasks within the institutional setting. For these institutions too, gleaning advice from the dispute resolution literature about how best to design © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 1 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... institutions *135 to engender conflict-managing tendencies is valuable. But the literature remains largely silent. The silence is not surprising because translating the findings of dispute resolution and negotiation research into prescriptions for institutional design is a challenging task. Section II confronts these challenges by first identifying five key dimensions along which institutional design decisions are made, specifically membership, scope of jurisdiction, centralization of activity, control over decision-making, and flexibility. The second part of Section II then derives a set of design principles along each dimension based on certain findings from the literature. The principles are an attempt at contributing to a general theory of institutional design and so provide broad guides to action rather than specific design solutions. 1 To demonstrate how these general principles might affect design decisions in a concrete case, Section III applies the principles to the design of the institutional settlement of post-Taliban Afghanistan as embedded in the Bonn Agreement of 2001. Both in methodology and in result, the discussion is experimental and tentative: my goal is to demonstrate what conflict management prescriptions aimed at institutions could look like in the hope that it will launch a conversation which in turn will elaborate and refine the principles. To this end, the paper ends with a series of key questions that should guide further work in this area. I. Institutions Matter A. The Institutionalist Posture Scholars in several disciplines have increasingly turned their attention to the role of institutions in modern life. This “new institutionalism” has attracted the attention of scholars in law,2 economics,3 *136 political science,4 international relations,5 management,6 and sociology,7 among others. The central theme of this work--although diverse in its specifics--has been, in short, that institutions matter: aggregations of individuals and groups in formal and informal ways, bound by a set of regulations, norms, and implicit understandings of the world, are a significant constituting social force, affecting and being affected by individual behavior and the whole host of social interactions spawning from that behavior. Thus, in describing social phenomena, institutionalists insist that “relatively enduring structures of human conduct have shaped the existing arrays of resources, rules, and values instead of taking that array as given”8 and in advocating social change, they look to factors such as “which actors are engaged, what kinds of problems are debated, how those problems are defined, and what kind of solutions are considered appropriate.”9 In this way, the institutionalist perspective opens up a level of analysis between the individual and society at large. It focuses on the way society is organized as a point of leverage in understanding and changing social behavior. For dispute resolution and conflict management scholars the opportunity is clear: creating systematic approaches to the study of institutional behavior in managing conflict in the same vein as the vast literature on individual behavior is a potentially powerful avenue to transforming societal approaches to significant conflict. Peter Senge’s analysis provides a lucid elaboration of the power of institutionalist thinking and the potential it holds for improved conflict management. He draws three lessons from the effort to uncover the influence of broader systemic structures in human interactions. The first lesson is summarized in the simple slogan that *137 “structure influences behavior,”10 meaning that different people tend to behave remarkably similarly when embedded in the same structure of institutional relationships. Second, Senge notes that “structure in human systems is subtle”11 so that it incorporates not only explicit rules and organizing principles, but also implicit values, norms and practices, as well as deep cognitive structures that color the way that individuals see and interpret the world. 12 Finally, Senge observes that leverage exists in learning to see and understand how systemic structures affect the everyday behavior around us. 13 Senge’s three lessons are an apt summary of the fundamental institutionalist posture that individual behavior is a result of more than simply initial skills and endowments, and is shaped significantly by the institutional structures in which actors are embedded. If this is indeed the case, then learning how best to shape those structures to invite behavior that promotes healthy conflict management presents a remarkable opportunity for large-scale change toward more peaceful coexistence and collaboration. B. Institutionalism and Dispute Resolution The institutionalist project in dispute resolution is, of course, vast and of long pedigree. In the context of legal disputes, alternate dispute resolution (“ADR”) has been focused on reforms to the structure of legal institutions that incorporate the best understandings of legal conflicts to manage them productively. 14 For instance, the call for a “multi-door courthouse” is a © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 2 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... now familiar vision of legal institutions structured to triage legal disputes and channel them to a form of resolution that is most appropriate to their character.15 This is a classic example of robust institutional analysis and prescription. It *138 begins with an insight from dispute resolution research--that conflicts vary in their character along certain dimensions that suggest the best method of resolving them--and translates it into an institutional implication, namely, to restructure the court system to accommodate this variety in a systematic and deliberate fashion. Since the institutionalist approach does not rely on changing the behavior of individuals through personal training and education, it is able to have long-term, sustained, and widespread impact in the way society organizes itself to manage conflicts. It thus moves the analytic and prescriptive effort from personal development to institutional inno- vation. The dispute systems’ design literature has a similar institutional focus. 16 In some senses, much of this literature extends the ADR approach by applying it to organizations outside of the legal system. 17 For instance, Constantino and Merchant develop a set of principles of design for an ADR system in an organization based on findings of dispute research. One of their principles, by way of example, is to “allow disputants to maintain control over the choice of ADR method and the selection of neutral”18 and is based on the now common understanding that participant control over the process of resolution is highly correlated with satisfaction with the eventual outcome. Other dispute systems’ design efforts are based on intensive empirical investigation of disputes in specific institutional contexts and suggest a series of measures that an organization can take to resolve disputes more effectively.19 This article seeks to build on this existing literature by addressing a broader question of institutional design. Specifically, I am concerned not with how institutions manage conflict per se, but rather with how they organize their work to maximize the chances that actors will be able to work together productively to address problems. It is not, therefore, a question principally of alternative dispute resolution mechanisms applied to organizational conflict, although these *139 methods will undoubtedly be useful. Rather, it is a broader inquiry into the relationship between the substance of design decisions and conflict management. The essence of institutional design is not about choosing from a portfolio of ADR mechanisms, but is instead a process of identifying the purposes of the institutions and then deciding on such issues as membership, jurisdiction, and decision making processes that are most likely to help achieve those purposes. The next section seeks to connect what we know about dispute resolution to these essential questions. II. Principles of Institutional Design to Improve Conflict Management A. A Framework for Design Principles It is useful to begin with a short consideration of the notion of design that is so central to the argument of this article. By “design” I have in mind a process of shaping a given set of resources with a view to achieving specified objectives. Design is, therefore, evaluated on the “goodness of fit” between the stated objectives and the results of the design. 20 On this interpretation, design has certain characteristics worth chronicling. First, it is a deliberate and purposeful process: for something to occur by design is for it to be a product of pragmatic calculation rather than serendipity or chance. Here, our objective is managing social conflict and the resource at our disposal is the capacity to shape the key characteristics of an institution. Therefore, although institutions often grow and are shaped in organic and unplanned ways as well as in a more deliberate manner, such organic processes would not be considered design as understood here. Rather, design refers to the deliberate manipulation of alternative arrangements along key institutional variables and differing combinations across those variables to produce uniquely shaped institutions to manage conflict. Second, purposefulness of design suggests a certain quality of elegance and ingenuity: it is not simply that the resources have been harnessed to meet an objective, but that they have been marshaled with an economy and creativity that render a solution uniquely or particularly well-suited to the task at hand.21 The shaping of social *140 institutions requires both rationality and imagination and the notion of design is meant to capture both the necessary analysis and artistry. To develop a set of principles based on this notion of design requires a framework that identifies those key variables or constituent elements of institutions that the designer can manipulate to shape an institution uniquely suited to managing conflict. The literature in organizational sociology and management contains several such frameworks, but many are too abstract to allow for obvious translations into the practical decisions of institutional design. Scott, for instance, develops a framework that disaggregates institutional characteristics along three “pillars”: a regulatory pillar operating through the coercive mechanisms of laws, rules, and regulations; a normative pillar, operating through persuasive mechanisms of standards, professional obligations, and expertise; and a cognitive pillar, operating through the tacit symbols and cognitive © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 3 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... structures through which we understand the world. 22 While Scott’s analysis is elegantly comprehensive, it remains at a level of generality that is too conceptual for prescriptive design purposes. Nor do other more specific frameworks, such as Mintzberg’s five elements of organization structure (strategic apex, technostructure, support staff, middle line, and operating core)23 or McKinsey’s 7-S model (strategy, shared values, skills, structure, systems, style, and staff) 24 clearly lend themselves to actionable and discrete changes in the contours of an institution’s design. Although not as comprehensive as these other frameworks, Koremenos et al. identify five dimensions of institutional design that are useful for the purposes of deriving principles of design because they are easily observable, lend themselves to discrete design decisions, and have clear impacts on an institution’s behavior. 25 As such, the conflict management implications of each of the Koremenos’ *141 dimensions can be interrogated separately, setting the stage for a series of principles that cover many, although certainly not all, of the most important choices faced by institutional designers. The five design variables are membership, scope, centralization, control, and flexibility. Membership refers to the number and identity of the institution’s constituent parts. 26 All institutions are an aggregation of individual elements-- sometimes those elements are individual people, as in a business firm or a non-profit organization; sometimes they are smaller groups of people, as in a university with a number of schools and faculties; sometimes, they are larger groups, as in an international organization whose membership consists of countries; and sometimes they are a mix of individuals and groups as in the institution of the market economy. The choice of “who’s in and who’s out” is a significant design feature and has important implications for an institution’s effectiveness and behavior. Scope, like membership, is a boundary-defining institutional feature, answering the question of “what?” rather than “who?”27 Specifically, the element of scope refers to the jurisdiction or area of concern of the institution. Scope can be defined in two dimensions: on the one hand, an institution will have jurisdiction over a set of substantive issues (“breadth”), and on the other hand, it will be bounded by what it can do in relation to those activities (“depth”). The U.S. federal courts, for instance, have jurisdiction over a very wide variety of issues, but can only act to decide “cases or controversies” in relation to them. Similarly, a business may confine its activities to a certain area of commerce--high-technology or retail merchandising, for example--but as a private business entity can only do certain types of things--buying and selling products, or manufacturing goods for instance, but not issuing public regulations in that area or even unlawfully colluding with competitors. These boundaries can be a result of preference, expedience, technical necessity, or cognitive association.28 *142 The third variable, centralization, refers to where activities take place in the institution. 29 Institutions that are relatively centralized tend to coordinate activities by delegating them to a single subset within the institution, often prohibiting others from engaging in them. In the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”), for instance, information collection and dissemination about individual members’ balance of payments is centralized in the IMF secretariat so that individual members do not have to duplicate efforts to gather this information from each other; similarly unions centralize the activity of bargaining with employers in the hands of union leadership. Relatively decentralized institutions, on the other hand, allow activities to take place by individual members. The market economy is a paradigmatic example of decentralized activity, where any individual is permitted to engage in economic transactions. The fourth design variable concerns where control over decision-making lies in the institution.30 It could rest in the hands of one member, all members, a subset of members, or even a third-party representing the institution as a whole or another institution altogether. The control variable is often embedded in the institution’s decision rules and voting procedures. In business firms, control often formally rests with the CEO and the Board of Directors, but in practice may actually rest with a smaller or larger group of executives and other managers. Control over decisions made by the United Nations Security Council are heavily weighted in favor of the permanent members because of their veto; in the General Assembly, conversely, all member states have equal votes. Finally, flexibility as a variable points to the way in which the institution allows for change.31 Circumstances may change, the preferences or needs of its members may change, or the purposes for which the institution was created may have been achieved or become irrelevant. Two broad types of flexibility are possible: some maintain the existing institutional framework and create exceptions for exigencies, such as escape clauses or opportunities to withdraw as a member, and others create opportunities for the institutional structure itself to be re-conceived, such as sunset provisions and manda- tory reviews.32 Taken together, these five variables provide a sufficiently broad picture of institutional variation to allow a preliminary investigation *143 into how they might be specifically manipulated to manage conflict more productively in light of the © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 4 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... results of dispute resolution research. The next section develops a series of principles to guide the process of design when institutions have conflict management as their social objective, using the five variables of membership, scope, centralization, control, and flexibility as the raw material for the effort. B. Developing Design Principles Along each of these five variables of institutional design, the dispute resolution literature suggests particular principles that would enhance the problem solving and conflict management character of an institution. In this section, I suggest specific principles for each of the five variables based on dispute resolution findings. Membership. Perhaps the most important insight of dispute resolution literature, implicit in almost the entire corpus, is that resolving conflict in a truly sustainable way requires talking to each other in a fashion that reveals our mutual interests and allows us to find joint solutions to problems.33 The implication is that in order for disputes to be resolved, all parties must be engaged in the process. The membership principle of design can thus be summarized in an intuitive but nonetheless important way: Principle 1: Institutions should strive for inclusiveness by incorporating into their structure all stakeholders likely to be affected by the institution’s work. All other things equal, for an institution to solve problems robustly, it must possess an institutional capacity for involving all stakeholders in its structures. Several reasons for this principle emerge from the literature. First, one institutional implication of the prescription to focus on interests rather than positions is that parties must be willing to exchange information for the purposes of revealing and discovering each other’s interests. Though it is possible to attempt to divine other parties’ interests in their absence, few mechanisms will be as effective or efficient as direct engagement. Second, legitimacy of outcomes in any process of conflict management often turns on the involvement of all parties. Indeed, sometimes, even when parties may be incompletely satisfied with a particular decision, the opportunity to be involved can be a powerful *144 factor mitigating disenchantment.34 Moreover, to the extent that agreements require ongoing support and collaboration from parties, involvement in processes of conflict resolution is often essential. Often, the very involvement of parties in a process can moderate their stance toward an agreement to which they otherwise may be hostile.35 Finally, the principle of inclusiveness can combat some cognitive and psychological barriers to negotiation. Psychological literature has demonstrated convincingly, for instance, the existence of significant egocentrism as a barrier to resolution of conflict.36 An important expression of egocentrism as a cognitive bias in negotiations is that individuals tend to overvalue interpretations of fairness that favor themselves. This self-serving interpretation is not motivated by crass self-interest; on the contrary, what makes it an important barrier to resolving conflict is that it is motivated by a genuine desire to act and appear fair. For instance, negotiators exhibit a tendency to recall facts that favor themselves while systematically de-emphasizing or forgetting facts that favor opponents. This is a cognitive bias rather than a willful omission: all parties sincerely believe they are being fair, even though each has unwittingly defined fairness in particularly self-serving ways. This posture, in addition to reducing or eliminating any zone of possible agreement, breeds mistrust, ill will, and bad faith between the parties. The result is exacerbated conflict rather than collaborative problem solving.37 Because the finding is one of a systematic cognitive bias of individuals, institutions can expect that individual actors encompassed *145 within the institutional ambit will exhibit this characteristic. An institution designed for better problem solving should attempt, through its design, to mitigate the effects of this egocentrism as it relates to resolving conflict. The literature suggests that improving communication between parties such that gaps between notions of fairness held by different parties are narrowed during the process of negotiation can powerfully mitigate egocentrism.38 Communication, of course, requires the presence of parties, reinforcing the importance of an institutional design principle that emphasizes inclusion. A principle of inclusiveness such as this one raises two caveats which apply, with more or less force, to all the principles. First, it underlines the nature of the relationship between the principles and actual design solutions in specific cases. The principles, because they aim to be general, can only aim to provide a guide and general direction that express in institutional terms certain ideas about how best to manage conflict. To say that all stakeholders must be included says nothing about how they should be included, except that involvement must, of course, be meaningful. When stakeholders are multiple and have varying degrees of interest, or when they are fluid and change over time and vary with issues and problems, institutional designers will need to create mechanisms for appropriate involvement. The principle of inclusiveness, then, is not one of © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 5 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... equal inclusiveness or continuous inclusiveness; rather, it is the institutional implication of the need to uncover parties’ underlying interests, confer legitimacy on outcomes, and combat cognitive biases. Thus, each principle is capacious: there is plenty of room within each principle for a broad portfolio of specific solutions. The application of the principles in Section III illustrates this point more concretely. Second, the principle of inclusiveness is, as all the principles will prove to be, inherently self-limiting. A tension exists between the full application of the principle and the complexity that would be its consequence. If all possible constituents were included in every institution, for example, it is quite possible that the resulting complexity of the conversations would quickly overwhelm the capacity of individual members and the institution as a whole to solve problems productively. This complexity limitation is a feature of all the principles and reinforces the idea of design as some combination of analysis and artistry: a certain measure of ingenuity is required to translate the principle into a response to a specific context. In the case of the membership principle, one can imagine a broad repertoire of alternative *146 forms of membership. At the United Nations, for instance, different states have a different involvement in the work of the institution, even though all are members. All states are members of the General Assembly, five states have permanent memberships on the Security Council with veto power, and then other states have a temporary and rotating non-veto membership on the Security Council.39 Scope. The question of the jurisdiction of an institution, and of internal institutional components, implicates several dispute resolution insights. With respect to the first dimension of an institution’s scope--the breadth of issue coverage--an institutional design principle could be formulated as follows: Principle 2: Institutions should seek broad coverage of many related issues of interest to the institutional membership rather than being limited to a specific or narrow issue area. The support for this principle rests on two dispute resolution findings. The first finding suggests that the simultaneous presence of many issues on the table enlarges the zone of possible agreement by creating possibilities for value-creating trades.40 The intuition behind the insight is simple to elaborate: when negotiations focus on a single issue, it is more likely that impasse will occur because interests may be diametrically opposed on that issue. However, fulfilling parties’ interests on other issues may induce them to accept a lower level of satisfaction on the initial issues. In other words, single-issue negotiations create more possibilities for winners and losers than do multi-issue ones: “single-issue protocols may prove non-negotiable unless they can be combined with agreements on other issues that offset the losses (or at least seem to distribute them fairly). A package deal may offer the possibility of ‘trading’ across issues for joint gain--thus breaking impasses resulting from treating issues separately.”41 *147 Moreover, the psychological literature on egocentrism suggests that another way of mitigating self-serving interpretations of fairness is to reduce or eliminate the potential for asymmetrical payoffs in negotiated outcomes. 42 “When . . . parties face identical payoffs, they tend to share common perceptions of fairness; when payoffs are varied among . . . parties, perceptions of fairness are divergent.”43 One institutional implication of the benefits of avoiding asymmetric outcomes is to create multiple opportunities for mutual benefit by expanding the scope of an institution’s mandate such that there is continually room to compensate losers on one issue with gains on another issue. The knowledge that trades are structurally available across a number of issues can reduce the asymmetry of outcomes of any particular negotiation, thus decreasing actors’ susceptibility to self-serving interpretations of fairness. Presumably, the same rationale holds for the second dimension of an institution’s scope, namely the depth or latitude to act within a particular issue area. The parallel principle may be articulated as follows: Principle 3: Institutions should seek depth of jurisdiction on individual issues areas such that they are empowered to take many kinds of action on issues within their mandate. Building on the same insights, actors within institutions of deep jurisdiction would be able to craft deals that took into account satisfactorily more interests of more parties. The complexity limitation is present here as with all the principles: as the scope of jurisdiction becomes broader, the institution’s cognitive and procedural capacity to deal with the sheer number of possible value creating trades, and the implications for each for different parties and interests, becomes severely strained. As a practical matter of institutional management, therefore, the full application of the principle hinges on the ability to develop methods of dealing with broad © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 6 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... grants of jurisdiction. Moreover, other limits are likely to present themselves, including the political sensitivities--associated principally with public institutions--of charging any one political institution with too sweeping a role in social and economic life. Centralization. The issue of centralization of activity is more complicated because it only makes sense to speak of centralization in *148 terms of particular functions that the institution performs. Accordingly, one can imagine that appropriate design principles concerning centralization would vary depending upon exactly what function was being considered. Again, while this discussion cannot be exhaustive in canvassing all functions, some discrete institutional functions are of particular importance to the practice of dispute resolution and problem solving and can be considered. An important element of any dispute resolution process is gathering relevant facts and information about the problems to be discussed and debated. A design principle may be stated as follows: Principle 4: Institutions should seek to build central sources of information gathering and dissemination. The importance of developing a common basis of information and facts as a prerequisite to managing conflicts and solving problems is widely accepted. In the first instance, a common basis of information avoids “needless arguments about basic facts.”44 It is thus a common technique to form joint fact-finding groups in many complex disputes; joint fact-finding has the characteristic of involving all parties to gather all relevant information in a centralized way as a mechanism of developing this common fact base.45 The centralization of the information gathering function has more than an efficiency benefit by reducing duplication; from a dispute resolution perspective, this technique holds benefits that include improving the credibility of ultimate agreements based on this common fact-base, inspiring more creative agreements, strengthening the durability of agreements, and improving commitment to reaching an agreement.46 Moreover, information asymmetry has been found to be a common barrier to resolving conflict between parties.47 Often opposing parties in a negotiation will hold different assessments of the likely *149 costs and benefits of not reaching an agreement based on different sets of information about alternatives. To the extent that these differences can be bridged with a common set of information, agreement becomes more likely. Every negotiation occurs in the shadow of the consequences of a failure to reach an agreement.48 When information about those consequences differs among the parties to a negotiation, agreement is less likely because some parties will see a particular negotiated outcome as desirable given their information about the consequences of not agreeing, and other parties will find it undesirable given their different information about those consequences. Establishing a common understanding of consequences based on common information allows all parties to assess the consequences of a failure to reach agreement in a similar way, thus promoting agreement. Centralizing information collection and dissemination also allows for the development of specialized institutional capacity. A great many barriers to resolving conflict entail the tension between revealing sufficient information to allow for creative, value-enhancing arrangements while still guarding against exploitation by the other side. Generating creative techniques of inviting the disclosure of appropriate information in mutually beneficial ways is a skill that can be developed over time and through experience that can significantly enhance the prospects of efficient and effective dispute resolution. 49 In addition to developing new techniques to generate better information flow between parties, central information functions could gather and report information that parties themselves may not think of, but can nonetheless facilitate agreement. For instance, Raiffa complains that parties often do not spend sufficient time collect- ing information about the uncertainties associated with the deci- sion to negotiate itself, resulting in sub-optimal behavior.50 Moreover, developing pre-negotiation briefing reports or conflict *150 assessments can likewise facilitate more efficient and effective nego- tiation.51 Finally, central information functions hold the prospect for alleviating some psychological barriers to conflict resolution, specifically the phenomenon of reactive devaluation. Reactive devaluation describes the process by which a party evaluates specific package deals and compromises less favorably as a consequence of the knowledge that they have actually been offered, especially if the offers have been made by an adversarial party. 52 The dispute resolution problem is obvious: a concession, even if genuinely made by an opposing party, is immediately discounted by the other party in the negotiation, thus narrowing rather than enhancing any zone of possible agreement. Central information functions can serve to combat reactive devaluation in two ways. First, to the extent that concessions can be “laundered” through a central information function and disseminated to all parties, reactive devaluation can be lessened. Second, a strategy of grounding offers in specific interests or preferences elicited from the other party prior to making the offer can also dampen the effect of reactive devaluation.53 © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 7 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... Another activity that is amenable to the centralization variable is informal discussions and conversations among various institutional members. A principle would be: Principle 5: Institutions should decentralize and proliferate discussions and conversations among institutional members in multiple forums and forms. Whatever formal institutional mechanisms for arriving at decisions and agreements exist, the function of exploratory conversations, discussions, and meetings should be left to institutional sub-units and members to engage in freely and frequently. Having articulated it thus, it sounds almost obvious, but it is a common fact of institutional life that the only forums for interaction among some members and units are formal and central. *151 Proliferating discussions among members as a regular feature of institutional life has many important advantages that create robust conditions for conflict management. First, regular communications across many forums build relationships between members that are a resource for conflict management and dispute resolution. 54 Second, as a technique for resolving disputes, informal discussion among participants outside of the context of formal negotiations has broad support and application. It can be used to allow parties to gather information, generate creative options and approaches to agreement, develop an understanding of what issues are most contentious, and build coalitions. 55 The focus on creating opportunities for building coalitions is a frequent theme in the literature on designing multi-party negotiations.56 The theory is that allowing coalitions to be formed early on facilitates conversations among smaller groups as more formal discussions commence. Moreover, decentralizing conversations may also allow for new and “cross-cutting” coalitions to emerge, ones that transcend typical coalition lines and foster broader support for agreement. 57 Decentralized discussion forums are also a reasonable institutional implication of insights from much ethnic conflict management literature. Research indicates that it is a critical component of preventing violent conflict that the grievances and issues of minority communities be raised and addressed as early as possible. 58 “Ethnic conflict usually begins with limited protests and clashes that only gradually escalate into serious violence. Government responses in the early stages are critical in whether and how escalation occurs.”59 Decentralized discussions over a broad range of issues and with diverse institutional members as an ongoing feature of institutional life hold the prospect for many grievances and issues to be aired, even when only in embryonic form. *152 Moreover, especially when conflicts are widespread--such as in societies embroiled in ethnic conflict--broad societal engagement in the ongoing processes of conflict management is an important ingredient for preventing violence and successfully resolving disputes.60 This idea underlines that broad-based, decentralized conversations among institutional members are significant institutional contributions to conflict management. Control. In the same way that centralization is only pertinent in the context of particular functions, perhaps as well, control over decision-making is only usefully discussed in the context of particular decisions. Nonetheless, as a matter of conflict management, since ultimate decisions seem to be such an integral part of the overall process of dispute resolution, some general institutional principles can be suggested for how best decision-making ought to be structured. Principle 6: Institutions should vest control over decisions in those most interested and affected by them. This principle rests on the common intuition that decisions imposed by those who will not be affected by them possess an illegitimate quality that frequently makes them unacceptable as solutions to disputes. Though in any one circumstance decisions of this nature may be acceptable, if they are a systematic fact of institutional life, conflicts cannot be sustainably managed within the institution. The intuition plays out in other arenas of conflict management. The first is the experience of federalism and power-sharing arrangements to provide robust institutional solutions to ethnic conflict. 61 Where strong institutional structures that devolve control over key decisions to those that are most affected exist, conflict has been managed within the institutional structures, rather than leading to violence.62 It bears repeating that the principle does not dictate a particular form of power sharing or local control. Instead, the principle suggests a justification for a repertoire of different possible ways of sharing power that are most suited to the institution’s work. Federalism, to take one example, can be manifested in a virtually infinite *153 variety of different structures,63 and should be designed with an eye to the situation at hand. Another example is apparent in the area of dispute systems’ design. Constantino and Merchant, for example, describe an © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 8 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... analogous principle of design in constructing dispute systems within organizations, namely, that disputants maintain control over the choice of ADR process and the selection of a neutral.64 In the field of public disputes as well, Susskind and others have persuasively argued that public distributional conflicts should be removed from the normal institutions of representative government and put directly in the hands of those who will be most affected and interested in the decision so that they can come to consensus.65 In addition to these broadly recognized legitimacy benefits of sharing control over decision-making, two effects suggest that significant technical benefits emerge from the principle as well. First, some research has shown that many problems are better solved in the context of devolved control because of the possibility for experimentation within the institution, the results of which can be shared and adopted by the institution as a whole. 66 Second, we would expect better solutions to emerge from difficult conflicts where decisions could be taken by those most familiar with the interests and preferences of the parties involved in the dispute. As a matter of institutional design, delegating decision-making power to interested parties seems to harness the interest-based lessons of all modern negotiation theory in the service of creating environments more conducive to problem solving. To be sure, it may be the case that in some instances devolution of power exacerbates rather than alleviates conflict within an institution. Greater conflict could emerge from one of two sources. First, it *154 could be that proliferating decision-making units within an institution would create opposing and overlapping decisions that generated conflicts between units. Indeed, one could make a similar argument that being inclusive of membership in the institution will increase conflict because more members will be present. However, we are not interested simply in some raw measure of the quantity of conflicts, but are concerned rather with the capacity to manage them sustainably over time. Excluding essential members or concentrating decision-making control may create the appearance of less conflict, but over time, it simply moves conflict outside of institutional barriers making sustained settlements less likely or suppressing conflict for the present, only to have it reappear with increased intensity in the future. Second, it could be the case that devolution creates a situation where individual decision-making units, in optimizing for their own issues, compromise the performance of the institution as a whole, thus creating “vertical” conflicts. While this is an important caution, the problem of coordinating institutional units can be addressed through the form of devolution and the establishment of appropriate boundaries for decision-making given the interests and priorities of the institution as a whole. Indeed, coordinating organic, highly devolved, and fluid institutional forms has been the subject of a great deal of organizational theory and practice.67 Many of these vertical conflicts can thus be overcome by imaginative institutional forms that alleviate the tensions between the conflict management aspirations suggested by the principles and the practical imperatives of institutional management. Flexibility. How institutions change and evolve over time is an important feature of their design, and suggests that design is ongoing rather than definitively concluded at a point in time. A principle might be as follows: Principle 7: Institutions should embed opportunities for regular review of principal design decisions in order to integrate learning from experience. Institutions are complex systems of interacting people, processes, and structures, and the outcome of those interactions is not always *155 predictable and is frequently surprising. A process of design that casts in stone an institutional structure, rendering it impervious to change based on experience, new information, and evolving understanding would run counter to this fundamental fact. This principle of flexibility suggests an alternative posture, one that is based on creating a capacity for learning and evolutionary change in institutional structures. 68 It is a common finding of the dispute resolution literature that openness to changing circumstances is an important part of creative problem solving and conflict management. From one perspective, many dispute resolvers see the negotiation itself as process of personal transformation and learning, where each side is educated about the other side’s interests and ideals leading to collaboration to develop a joint solution. 69 Moreover, the field itself has recognized that in focusing on the actual practice of dispute resolution in real human contexts, “an unending openness to both skepticism and new ideas” is essential to continually improving both theory and practice.70 In addition, several dispute resolution techniques emphasize the benefits of creating opportunities for revision of settlements after formal negotiations are concluded. Raiffa, for example, has pioneered the idea of the “post-settlement settlement” and others have recognized the power of creating opportunities for revision into the future to create value and improve deals.71 © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 9 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... Resolving disputes with the knowledge that opportunities will exist to correct failures, respond to uncertainties, and incorporate experience may also create a willingness among parties to try solutions that otherwise would be too risky. In this sense, it is also an institutional implication of the imperative to create value from differences in predictions about the future or confidence in the effectiveness of particular responses to problems. 72 *156 Finally, the principle of openness to changing fundamental design decisions in the face of new information and experience also pays respect to fundamental commitments to the ideas of inclusiveness and party control articulated in previous principles. In this sense, developing institutional frameworks that ensure their own revision and evolution through clear opportunities for institutional members to be involved in continual redesign recognizes that design and re-design are simply extensions of the same process. *** Thus, the marriage of five variables with insights from the dispute resolution literature has yielded seven preliminary principles for the design of institutions faced with managing conflict. Table 1, below, summarizes them in preparation for their elaboration in the context of a particular case. Table 1: Summary of Design Principles Variable Membership Scope Centralization Control Flexibility Principle Principle 1: Institutions should strive for inclusiveness by incorporating into their structure all stakeholders likely to be affected by the institution’s work. Principle 2: Institutions should seek broad coverage of many related issues of interest to the institutional membership rather than being limited to a specific or narrow issue area. Principle 3: Institutions should seek depth of jurisdiction on individual issues areas such that they are empowered to take many kinds of action on issues within their mandate. Principle 4: Institutions should seek to build central sources of information gathering and dissemination. Principle 5: Institutions should decentralize and proliferate discussions and conversations among institutional members in multiple forums and forms. Principle 6: Institutions should vest control over decisions in those most interested and affected by them. Principle 7: Institutions should embed opportunities for regular review of principal design decisions in order to integrate learning from experience. III. Institutional Design of the Interim Administration in Post-Taliban Afghanistan Having described a set of principles of institutional design that would create an organizational arrangement structurally biased toward managing conflict, in this section I turn to elaborating the principles in the context of a concrete situation. My aim here is a precise one: I hope to fill in the content of the principles more fully by providing an example of what they may look like when applied in the context of a specific moment of institutional design. I cannot claim to offer proof of their efficacy; that is the task of detailed empirical analysis with clear methodologies for establishing causality, well beyond the scope of this preliminary foray into developing principles. What the example can offer, however, is a fuller illustration of what the above principles might mean in practice, what guidance they might offer to institutional designers, and how they might change conventional or intuitive approaches. Post-Taliban Afghanistan seems an appropriate case for several reasons. First, its salience as a conflict management challenge is highlighted by its currency and the political attention which it is receiving internationally. Moreover, it presents an instance of the design of a de novo institutional arrangement with the explicit aim of managing internal societal conflicts with the hopes of bringing peace. This offers an ideal laboratory for the principles developed here. Finally, the actual design is unusually accessible through the relatively *157 short text of the Bonn Agreement, negotiated by the Special © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 10 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... Representative of the UN Secretary-General, Lakhdar Brahimi in December 2001.73 In applying the principles, two cautions are in order. First, as has been indicated earlier, the principles are not meant to take the place of the detailed decisions of institutional design, but rather to guide them in particular directions. Each principle lends itself to a wide repertory of institutional techniques, structures, and forms that must be developed so as to fit the unique circumstances of each context. The principles cannot alleviate the need for imaginative design; *158 they can only inspire and steward them in ways consistent with our collective wisdom about conflict management. The intent here is to illustrate design principles rather than design solutions. Second, conflict management is rarely the only purpose of an institution and even when it is the predominant goal, the design project faces constraints posed by political practicality, time limits, and other substantive and policy goals. 74 One can imagine very good reasons why, in a particular situation, a designer may trade-off adherence to one of these design principles for other advantages. Design is always a matter of judgment. For the purposes of this example, however, since my interest is in elaborating the principles, I assess the design in light of the principles as if none of these constraints existed. What would the solution have looked like if we had been able to apply the principles unfettered? A. The Design Solution: The Bonn Agreement and the Interim Administration The Bonn Agreement was signed on December 5, 2001 after nine days of talks.75 One can understand its institutional arrangement on two levels: it sets up both an Interim Administration to govern Afghanistan for six months as well as a process for political developments over approximately the next 30 months, as follows: • 22 Dec 2001: Interim Administration inaugurated. 76 • By 22 Jun 2002: Emergency Loya Jirga convened; must decide on a ‘Transitional Authority‘ to lead Afghanistan ‘until such time as a fully representative government can be elected through free and fair elections.‘ The Interim Administration ceases to exist once the Transitional Authority has been established. 77 • Within 2 months of establishment of Transitional Authority: Constitutional Commission convened to prepare for Constitutional Loya Jirga.78 *159 • Within 18 months of establishment of Transitional Authority: Constitutional Loya Jirga convened to prepare new constitution.79 • No later than 22 Jun 2004: elections for a national government. 80 The focus of this analysis will be on the initial Interim Administration (“IA”), as an attempt at confronting the detailed decisions of institutional design in an environment of severe conflict. However, since the Interim Administration was conceived and designed as part of a broader process (indeed, designed in the shadow of that process, as it were), this process becomes an indispensable institutional feature of the Interim Administration itself. B. Assessing the Design in Light of the Principles Membership. The first institutional feature to note would be membership. The IA is composed of 30 members, including a chair and five vice-chairs.81 The Bonn Agreement states that the selection of the individuals was made “on the basis of professional competence and personal integrity from lists submitted by the participants in the UN Talks, with due regard to the ethnic, geographic, and religious composition of Afghanistan and to the importance of the participation of women.”82 Of course, ultimately, the actual selection of the individuals was a process of political negotiation and bargaining. In the end, the four groups represented at the Bonn Conference all found representation, in varying degrees, in the IA. Inclusiveness was the design principle developed in the last section as it related to ensuring an institutional capacity for conflict management. While the eventual IA was inclusive of all the parties participating in the Bonn Conference, significant interests were excluded. First, many internal constituencies were not invited to the talks. 83 The most obvious omission were the Taliban: no Taliban *160 representatives were invited to the conference, and no Taliban representatives were included in the IA. Although this decision was likely driven by a set of political imperatives, it raises significant questions from the perspective of conflict management. The Taliban, after all, were a powerful force in the country and continue to command support among some sectors of the population. 84 Evidence that they are regrouping to challenge the current political settlement itself may vindicate the principle that incorporating them into the institutional framework for political negotiation is an important ingredient for programming the institution for dispute resolution.85 Incorporating politically distasteful but powerful factions in peace agreements to assure the stability of future institutional arrangements is not a novel suggestion; the © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 11 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, for example, despite their horrific human rights record were incorporated into the UN-sponsored Paris Peace Accords out of a recognition that excluding them, while politically expedient, would not allow for an institutional arrangement that would be able to manage Cambodian political conflicts into the future. 86 Nor are the Taliban alone as an excluded faction: other internal constituencies that have been allegedly excluded include the generation of Afghans who fought against the Soviet invasion87 and some ethnic groups in the country.88 *161 A second category of stakeholders with no institutional role, yet critical to the future of peace in Afghanistan, is other countries, especially neighbors. The history of Afghanistan is replete with intervention by foreign powers, seeking to conquer the territory to vindicate certain geostrategic ambitions. 89 Even in the last two decades, the involvement of other countries in Afghanistan has served to fuel conflict, whether it is the Soviet Union; the USA through the CIA; or neighbors such as Pakistan, Iran, and Uzbekistan.90 Plenty of evidence exists that leaving these countries outside of the institutional settlement could destabilize the prospects for peace.91 There are practical objections that can be raised against the notion that all these various stakeholders ought to have been included in some kind of institutional arrangement. A cabinet of 30 members may seem unwieldy enough that the prospect of adding further representation may appear more like a recipe for gridlock and more conflict rather than less. Setting aside any number of political objectives that may be achieved through exclusion of one group or another, from the perspective of creating an institution effective at managing conflict, this objection seems spurious. A large cabinet may well lead to more conflict, but the difference is that the conflict would be contained within the institutional setting, rather than being waged outside of it, where violence or other less productive mechanisms *162 would be deployed. Moreover, it is not the case that greater inclusiveness necessarily means a larger cabinet. How best to include members in an appropriate way is an arena for imaginative responses, not dictated by the principle itself. Indeed, alternative representation mechanisms had been suggested for some groups.92 One can imagine a whole repertoire of alternatives that could provide some form of inclusive representation without unduly encumbering the practical operations of the IA. Another way to understand the membership issue is to place the IA in the context of the broader political process of which it is a part. While the IA itself may not be inclusive of all these actors, perhaps the aspiration for the Loya Jirga and the future Transitional Administration was to be more inclusive. Understanding the “institution” in this broader way in fact is an example of different tiers of institutional membership: some groups’ membership within the IA itself, others through the Loya Jirga process, and still others through the Transitional Administration. Scope. The second and third principles spoke to an institution’s jurisdictional scope, and enunciated a principle of breadth in order to accommodate many deal making possibilities. The Bonn Agreement stipulates that the IA “shall be entrusted with the day-to-day conduct of the affairs of state, and shall have the right to issue decrees for the peace, order, and good government of Afghanistan.”93 In this sense, the IA seems to have adhered to the principle of breadth of jurisdiction. Presumably, all issues of Afghan governance are on the table and negotiable by the IA membership. However, it is insufficient to simply look at the scope of the IA as a whole. To understand the capacity for conflict management, it is important to look at how the IA is internally organized. The IA has been divided up into 29 separate ministries, each with its own minister. Since the ministers appear to be in control of much of the country’s resources, many decisions are made at the level of ministries rather than at the level of the IA cabinet. 94 Powerful ministers will invariably seek to advance the causes of their own narrowly defined ministries and are therefore bound to come into conflict with opposed *163 parties in the country. However, they will be unable to seek concessions from opponents in exchange for other issues because their power is so substantively delimited. An example may clarify this abstract idea. One of the ministries the Bonn Agreement creates is a Ministry of Women’s Affairs. 95 Politically, this was an important imperative, both because of the tragedies against Afghan women during the war, as well as because much of the Western liberation rhetoric used to justify the Afghan intervention was couched in terms of combating the oppression of women. 96 Women’s issues, however, continue to be deeply controversial in Afghanistan. Cultural and traditional practices continue to sit uncomfortably, not only with international norms, but more importantly with the aspirations of many Afghan women themselves.97 Creating a ministry solely concerned with an issue of such controversy in the country seems to contravene the principle of breadth, because it creates a situation where the Minister of Women’s Affairs will have to advance ostensibly controversial measures for women’s development to remain faithful to her mandate, while simultaneously robbing her of the power to negotiate concessions with opponents in exchange for their gain on other issues. Perhaps a particular community will be more open to the establishment of co-educational or girls’ schools if the IA simultaneously upgrades the community’s © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 12 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... irrigation or power systems. Isolating controversial issues such as this, however, creates the opportunity for conflict to be concentrated in win-lose, distributive bargaining, without creating natural opportunities for broad package deals that could satisfy many parties simultaneously. Another example with slightly different dimensions would be security. Recent conversations with Afghan civil society leaders in the region suggest that the problems of physical insecurity (that is, threats to person and property) are the result of much deeper economic, social, and environmental vulnerabilities.98 In essence, many *164 of the warlords and factional interests perpetuating armed violence are preying on the economic vulnerabilities of local populations. The IA creates a Department of the Interior99 to deal with internal security issues. But the Minister, Muhammad Qanooni, will be left with fighting security with security forces, rather than having the natural opportunity to make broader deals with warlords and others that put economic, development, and reconstruction incentives on the table. Again, practical and political imperatives may require that governance areas be disaggregated in some way to make their administration manageable. However, in deciding how to divide up substantive duties at the highest levels, such as the cabinet where ministers will be powerful decision makers, the principle of broad scope can be applied to ensure that highly controversial and disputed issues are placed within jurisdictions that give them wide latitude to make deals with opponents. From a dispute resolution perspective, perhaps a Ministry of Women’s Affairs could be part of a larger department looking at social development more broadly. Another model would do away with functional ministries altogether and divide responsibilities by region instead: the result would be multi-functional teams for regions or communities that could bring to bear the entire scope of governance issues to manage policy development and administration for a particular sub-population. Centralization. The first design principle in this area was to centralize the information collection and dissemination function. The Bonn Agreement, unsurprisingly, is silent on this, just as it is largely silent on the functioning of the IA more generally. Nonetheless, a quick glance ahead at the substantive agenda that the IA faced in its first few months suggests the central role that information will play in generating agreement among various parties. For instance, the disbursement of development aid across the country will likely be deeply contentious;100 common information about needs and current resources will not only be essential to high quality decisions, but also to facilitating agreement. Moreover, the significant issues of constitutional design and Loya Jirga composition and election will similarly depend on accurate, unbiased information about the demographic make up of the country among other details. *165 Information ends up being an important element in these discussions because in the absence of a centralized information collection function, individual parties and factions collect and use their own facts. In this context, several classes of institutional forms were possible. The Bonn Agreement could have delegated the information function officially to the UN administration until such time as an adequate national institution had been established. Alternatively, a separate, independent, non-political function could have been created within the Agreement for such a function.101 The other design principle on centralization concerns the need to decentralize conversations among institutional members in multiple forums to proliferate discussions on all types of issues. The Bonn Agreement stipulates only the composition of the IA and some general decision making rules, but is silent on the issue of meetings or other forums for discussion and conversation. The only provision is that the “Chairman . . . or in his/her absence one of the Vice Chairmen, shall call and chair meetings and propose the agenda for these meetings.”102 This represents a centralization of the convening function in the hands of the Chair. Centralizing the convening function in this way seems counter to the design principle. To be sure, the Bonn Agreement does not stipulate that formal meetings of the IA are the only ones to take place. However, especially in the context of a cabinet made up of individuals who have a history of hostile and conflictual relations,103 this design principle suggests that the IA could have been designed to encourage many more decentralized conversations among members of the IA. For instance, the Agreement could have mandated subgroups of relevant ministers--drawn from the different factional interests represented--to meet in preparation for full IA meetings, without granting any formal power to decide. Indeed, given the significant regional tensions that continue to exist in the country, encouraging regional groupings to come together to discuss issues on the IA’s agenda could also have been fruitful. *166 More ambitiously, the Bonn Agreement could have created an institutional apparatus to begin to involve either those not represented in the IA104 or to engage more broadly the populations who are directly represented by members of the IA. For instance, one could imagine a tier of consultative councils, with broad memberships to create space for conversations on the important work of reconstruction. Indeed, conversations with community leaders in the region suggest that a critical © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 13 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... component of the overall process of social reconstruction and peace building is to engage local communities in traditional and new mechanisms of conversation and decision-making.105 Control. The principle articulated in the last section focused on ensuring that control over decisions rested with those most affected by their outcome. As noted above, the full sovereign power of Afghanistan is vested in the IA and no subsidiary bodies have been created. Three issues arise with respect to the implementation of the design principle on the control variable. First, when an institution is designed to vest control in those most affected by a decision, the control could be vested in the individuals themselves or in their representatives. Thus, an important question to ask in assessing the IA’s fidelity to this design principle is whether the people most affected by the IA’s decisions feel adequately represented by the IA. This is an empirical question whose answer can only really be known by asking affected parties. Nonetheless, some indicators suggest that several groups feel excluded from the IA, and given the historical cleavage between Kabul and the country’s rural areas,106 it is likely that many Afghans do not feel that any administration in Kabul would adequately represent them. If this is the case, then the Bonn Agreement has done a poor job of adhering to this design principle of delegating control over decisions to those affected by them. Second, the unique context of the IA as an interim body seems implicated in the question of control. The design principle suggests that power sharing will be an important part of any sustainable approach to conflict management. Thus, as the constitutional design process proceeds, the standard repertoire of institutional approaches *167 (federalism, separation of powers, etc.) will no doubt be considered. In this sense, perhaps control has been delegated more widely than is at first apparent. The Loya Jirga will be the body that is charged with constitutional design, and it will have members drawn from all parts of the country through a process of election in each administrative unit. 107 In this sense, through its broader membership, control over the important issues of design of ongoing governance institutions has been shared with a group much broader than the IA. Finally, it is nonetheless true that the IA will be making a host of decisions that will have a deep impact on people across the country who do not feel represented. Perhaps most obviously, but certainly not exclusively, is the disbursement of the $4.5 billion in aid pledged to Afghanistan by international donors. 108 In this context, simply relying on the Loya Jirga as the mechanism for power sharing seems disingenuous. In the absence of more local control over the use of the funds, for instance, one can imagine a set of serious conflicts emerging outside of the institutional structure of the IA, with many disgruntled local actors speaking out. As it is, the IA does not appear able to impose its will on warlords and powerful leaders across the country,109 and so it remains important to involve them in the institutional process of decision-making. Flexibility. Embedding opportunities to change and develop the institutional structure seems to be a major feature of the IA, given its predominant character as an interim administration. The Bonn Agreement’s major mechanism for review is the Loya Jirga, which meets within six months of the agreement’s signing to decide on a “Transitional Administration” that will serve for up to two years.110 Presumably, the processes of deliberation within the Loya Jirga will allow for a review of the functioning of the IA with a view to incorporating major lessons learned into the design and structure of the Transitional Administration. The real challenge, therefore, will rest in the design of the Transitional Administration--will it incorporate similar opportunities for review that allow for evolution of the basic governing framework at *168 the level of fundamental design decisions without disrupting the necessary formation of a dependable and predictable set of routines? One can imagine mandating a process of review once every five years, for instance, where all such elements of the framework are explicitly reviewed with a view to recommending changes. Another alternative would be to create an ongoing process of review that looks at different variables over time. It could be imagined as either an internal process, whereby its exclusive interlocutors are institutional members themselves, or a more external process through which individuals and perspectives from other countries are invited to infuse the review process with ideas and experiences gleaned from elsewhere. This latter approach would see the entire global repertoire of institutional variation as the pertinent realm of experimentation and learning. Instead of looking outward and beyond the frontiers of Afghanistan, another design would look inward to propose the unleashing of many decentralized experiments with local institutional structures, whose experiences and lessons were then shared, aggregated, and fed into a process of experimentation and learning at the national level.111 All these options suggest the potential of an embedded flexibility in the institutional structure of governance in post-Taliban Afghanistan. © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 14 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... *** Thus, along each of the five variables, an entire portfolio of institutional design options that adhere to the principles present themselves once situated in the context of a particular design challenge such as post-Taliban Afghanistan. Introducing a particular context can raise at least as many questions as it addresses about the principles and how they can be further elaborated. In recognition of some of these open questions, the concluding section turns to the implications for future research and inquiry on this path. IV. Conflict Management as Institutional Design: Next Steps? The case study of the Afghan Interim Administration suggests how institutional design principles derived from the dispute resolution literature might guide actual efforts at constructing institutional responses to managing conflicts. In conflicts such as the one in Afghanistan, institutional responses are an essential element for achieving a sustained peace. If the institutions break down because they are unable to manage the underlying social conflicts to which *169 they were a response, it is at least partly a failure of the field of dispute resolution to think carefully about how best those institutions can be designed so that conflict can be productively addressed through joint problem solving and collaboration within the actual workings of the institution. This article has been a first attempt at articulating general principles that may provide support and inspire institutional designers. It has been largely conjectural, representing an effort to demonstrate a particular approach rather than a finely tuned prescription. As an early step, then, it is only proper to end by acknowledging and previewing some steps that may lie ahead. With this purpose, I conclude with a few questions that continue to puzzle me and that would benefit from further study in order to elaborate and sophisticate this effort: • What is the connection between the principles at this level of generality and actual design decisions in specific contexts? Is it possible to provide either more specific guidance or to elaborate a more systematic methodology to arrive at a specific institutional intervention from a given principle? • What further data and evidence from dispute resolution literature can be brought to bear on the formulation of the principles? What is the evidence that runs counter to the principles formulated here, and how can they be reconciled to develop modified, and perhaps, more precise principles? • What are the other dimensions of design that bear on an institution’s conflict management capacities beyond the five variables explored here? How can variables such as an institution’s culture, symbols, rituals, leadership, group process, knowledge management, etc. be the subject of design principles? What is the overarching institutional or organizational theory that can provide the basis for a more systematic approach to institutional variables? • How can the existing variables be explored further? For instance, what other functions can be analyzed for the centralization variable? What other types of decisions can be considered under the control variable? • What is the empirical basis for the application for these design principles? Can we demonstrate the effectiveness of these principles through a series of empirical experiments or cases? We live in an era when institutional responses to widespread social conflict are being understood to be indispensable partners to responses grounded more in changing and enhancing individual behavior in the face of conflict. We must not “pretend not to know *170 what we know”112 about dispute resolution and conflict management when we engage in the crucial project of designing institutions that will allow us to live together peacefully and to solve our joint problems together. Rather, the challenge is to translate what we do know into prescriptions for creating the institutional arrangements that will unleash our individual and collective capacities for energetic, creative, and peaceful collaboration. Our destiny is intimately connected with our capacity for imagining institutions that can be the repositories and vehicles for these aspirations and ideals. Perhaps these design principles can inspire us to just such a richer institutional imagination. Footnotes © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 15 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... d1 Associate, McKinsey & Company; J.D., 2002, Harvard Law School; B.A., 1997, University of British Columbia. The research and writing of this paper was funded by a Hewlett Fellowship, provided by the Harvard Negotiation Research Project at Harvard Law School. I would like to thank Robert Bordone, John Kelleher, Naz Modirzadeh, Michael Moffit, Robert Mnookin, Guhan Subramanian and the other Harvard Law School Hewlett Fellows (2001/2002) for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this article, as well as the Hewlett Foundation forits generous support. I would also like to thank the Harvard Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict Research and its Director, Claude Bruderlein, for sponsoring a mission to Afghanistan that provided important perspectives for this paper. 1 I do not mean to deny that there are differences between kinds of institutions and their contexts that would be pertinent to the purpose of this article. Even in the face of these differences, however, I am seeking here the first elements of a general theory, because I believe that it can be powerful and inspire efforts that are more specifically contextual. See Roger Fisher, Beyond YES, in Negotiation Theory and Practice 123, 125 (J. William Breslin & Jeffrey Z. Rubin eds., 1991) [hereinafter Negotiation Theory and Practice] for an analogous position on the role of general theory in the prescriptive literature on individual negotiation behavior. 2 See, e.g., Roberto Mangabeira Unger, Legal Analysis as Institutional Imagination, 59 Mod. L. Rev. 1 (1996); Michael C. Dorf & Charles F. Sabel, A Constitution of Democratic Experimentalism, 98 Colum. L. Rev. 267 (1998). 3 See, e.g., Oliver E. Williamson, The Economic Institutions of Capitalism: Firms, Markets, Relational Contracting (1985); Eirik G. Furubotn, The New Institutional Economics and the Theory of the Firm, 45 J. Econ. Behav. & Org. 133 (2001); Malcolm Rutherford, Institutional Economics: Then and Now, 15 J. Econ. Persp. 173 (2001). 4 See, e.g., James G. March & Johan P. Olsen, The New Institutionalism: Organizational Factors in Political Life, 78 Am. Pol. Sci. Rev. 734 (1984); R. M. Smith, Political Jurisprudence, the New Institutionalism, and the Future of Public Law, 82 Am. Pol. Sci. Rev. 89 (1988). 5 See, e.g., Barbara Koremenos et al., The Rational Design of International Institutions, 55 Int’l Org. 761 (2001). 6 See, e.g., Peter M. Senge, The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization (1990). 7 See, e.g., W. Richard Scott, Institutions and Organizations (1995); Mark Granovetter, Economic Action and Social Structure: the Problem of Embeddedness, 91 Am. J. Soc. 481 (1985). 8 Smith, Political Jurisprudence, supra note 4, at 98. 9 Andrew J. Hoffman & Marc J. Ventresca, The Institutionalist Framing of Policy Debates: Economics Versus the Environment, 42 Am. Behav. Scientist 1368, 1368 (1999). 10 Senge, supra note 6, at 40. 11 Id. 12 See Scott, supra note 7, at 34-45 (discussing the three pillars of institutional analysis, including the regulative, involving the coercive mechanisms of law, rules, and sanctions; the normative, involving non-binding standards, professional accreditations, and expert opinions; and the cognitive, involving tacit symbols and cognitive structures largely taken for granted but determining in large measure the way information and events are interpreted). © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 16 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... 13 Id. 14 See, e.g., Stephen B. Goldberg et al., Dispute Resolution: Negotiation, Mediation, and Other Processes (1999); Carrie Menkel-Meadow, Introduction: What Will We Do When Adjudication Ends? A Brief Intellectual History of ADR, 44 UCLA L. Rev. 1613 (1997). 15 See Frank E. A. Sander, Varieties of Dispute Processing, 70 F.R.D. 111, 130-31 (1976); see also Kessler & Finklestein, The Evolution of a Multi-Door Courthouse, 37 Cath. U.L. Rev. 577 (1988). 16 See, e.g., Cathy A. Constantino & Christina Sickles Merchant, Designing Conflict Management Systems: A Guide to Creating Productive and Healthy Organizations (1996); William L. Ury et al., Getting Disputes Resolved: Designing Systems to Cut the Costs of Conflict (1988). 17 See Deborah M. Kolb & Susan S. Silbey, Enhancing the Capacity of Organizations to Deal with Disputes, in Negotiation Theory & Practice 315 (“Dispute systems design is an extension of such alternative dispute resolution processes as mediation and other forms of assisted negotiation into the instructional and programmatic realm.”). 18 Constantino & Merchant, supra note 16, at 121. 19 See, e.g., Patrick Field et al., Using Mediation in Canadian Environmental Tribunals: Opportunities and Best Practices, 22 Dalhousie L.J. 51 (1999). 20 See Robert E. Goodin, Institutions and Their Design, in The Theory of Institutional Design 1, 33-34 (1996) for a similar approach. 21 Design, after all, has deep aesthetic connotations. The vision of the architect, merging form and function with effortless ease comes to mind. For a good example of elegant physical design meeting important social purposes, see Curtis Sittenfeld, No Place Like Home, Fast Company, May 2002, at 38, at http://www.fastcompany.com/online/58/architect.html (reporting the work of “two New York architects [who] are using design to address pressing social challenges--for the homeless, for war refugees, even for public-school kids”). 22 Scott, supra note 7, at 34-45. 23 Henry Mintzberg, The Structuring of Organizations: A Synthesis of the Research 18-34 (1979). 24 Peggy D. Brewer et al., Strategic Planning for Continuous Improvement in a College of Business, 36 Mid-Atlantic J. Bus. 123, 126-28 (2000). 25 See Koremenos et al., supra note 5, at 763, 770-73. They utilize this set of variables to organize their own empirical research to explain the observed variation in the design of international institutions. 26 Id. at 770. © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 17 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... 27 Id. 28 Id. at 770-71 on technical necessity or cognitive association (“In the Law of the Sea negotiations ... [t]echnological interactions required that [jurisdiction over ocean territories and coastal environmental and fishing rights issues] be dealt with together in a comprehensive settlement. But other Law of the Sea issues seemed to have little in common. Here linkage was more cognitive--a result of how issues were framed ....”). 29 Koremenos, et al., supra note 5, at 771-72. 30 Id. at 772. 31 See id. at 773. 32 See id. 33 See, e.g., Roger Fisher et al., Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In (2d ed. 1991). 34 Cf. Chris Carlson, Convening, in The Consensus Building Handbook 169, 185 (Lawrence Susskind et al. eds., 1999) (“The legitimacy of consensus building processes ... depends on whether they are viewed by stakeholders and the public at large as representative of all interests and points of view. A bedrock principle of consensus-based processes, therefore, is that everyone with a stake in the decision should be represented at the table. This principle helps to ensure that any consensus agreement reached will be seen as legitimate by all relevant parties ....”). 35 See, e.g., David Malone, Decision Making in the United Nations Security Council: The Case of Haiti, 1990-1997 176 (1998) (“Membership in the UNSC [United Nations Security Council] influences the national position of its members. Had it not been a member of the Council, Brazil would probably have denounced the terms of [Security Council Resolution] 940 as virulently as did Mexico and Colombia. However, its collegial ties to other members and its acknowledgement that some of its concerns were addressed ... led it to adopt a more nuanced public position.”). 36 See Max Bazerman et al., Death and Rebirth of the Social Psychology of Negotiation, in Blackwell Handbook of Social Psychology: Interpersonal Processes 196, 205-09 (G. Fletcher & M. Clark. Malden eds., 2000). 37 See id. 38 See id. at 207. 39 See U.N. Charter chapters 4, 5. 40 See James K. Sebenius, Designing Negotiations Toward a New Regime: The Case of Global Warming, 15 Int’l Security 110, 124-25 (Spring 1991) (“it is easy to imagine that separate protocols calling on different groups to undertake painful and costly measures will ... be rejected unless they can be packaged in ways that offer sufficient joint gains to key players.”); see also Lawrence Susskind & Gerard McMahon, The Theory and Practice of Negotiated Rulemaking, 3 Yale J. on Reg. 133, 139-40 (1985) (noting that as a precondition for success of negotiated rulemakings that “there must be two or more issues ‘on the table’ so that parties can maximize their overall interests by trading or bundling issues”). © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 18 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... 41 Sebenius, Designing Negotiations, supra note 40, at 124. 42 See Bazerman, supra note 36, at 207. 43 Id. 44 Robert H. Mnookin, A New Direction: Transforming Labor Relations in the San Francisco Symphony 20 (unpublished manuscript on file with author). 45 See id. at 20 for an example of this technique applied in a labor dispute. 46 See John R. Ehrmann and Barbara L. Stinson, Joint Fact-Finding and the Use of Technical Experts, in The Consensus Building Handbook, supra note 34, at 375, 377-80; see also John T. Dunlop, The Creation of New Processes for Conflict Resolution in Labor Disputes, in Barriers to Conflict Resolution 273, 286 (Kenneth J. Arrow et al. eds., 1995) (“Mutual respect for a set of data is often an important step in the process of dispute resolution that saves time.”); Sebenius, supra note 40, at 142 (describing the central role of a joint computer model prepared by MIT in facilitating negotiations during the Law of the Sea conference). 47 See, e.g., Robert B. Wilson, Strategic and Informational Barriers to Negotiation, in Barriers to Conflict Resolution, supra note 46, at 109, 119 (“[D]ifferences in information can prevent settlements. Or such differences can require costly delays as each party tries to exploit his or her private information or to communicate it credibly via the offers he or she makes”). 48 Cf. Robert H. Mnookin & Lewis Kornhauser, Bargaining in the Shadow of the Law: The Case of Divorce, 88 Yale L.J. 950 (1979). 49 See, e.g., Howard Raiffa, The Art and Science of Negotiation: How to Resolve Conflicts and Get the Best Out of Bargaining 58-65 (1982) (discussing theoretical approaches for inducing mutually beneficial truth disclosure, some of which still need the development of practical techniques for their realization). 50 See Howard Raiffa, Analytical Barriers, in Barriers to Conflict Resolution, supra note 46, at 133, 137. 51 See id. at 145 (elaborating the technique of pre-negotiation briefing reports); see also Lawrence Susskind and Jennifer Thomas-Larmer, Conducting a Conflict Assessment, The Consensus Building Handbook supra note 34, at 99, 99. 52 See Lee Ross and Andrew Ward, Naïve Realism in Everyday Life: Implications for Social Conflict and Misunderstanding, in Values and Knowledge 103, 126 (Terrance Brown et al. eds., 1997). 53 See Lee Ross, Reactive Devaluation in Negotiation and Conflict Resolution, in Barriers to Conflict Resolution, supra note 46, at 27, 39. 54 See generally Roger Fisher & Scott Brown, Getting Together: Building Relationships as We Negotiate (1989). 55 See, e.g., Lawrence Susskind, Environmental Diplomacy: Negotiating More Effective Global Agreements 124-26 (1994) (discussing the recommendation of the Salzburg Initiative to “build decentralized alliances” as mechanism for improving the functioning of global environmental treaty negotiations). © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 19 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... 56 See id.; see also Sebenius, supra note 40, at 143. 57 See Sebenius, supra note 40, at 143. 58 See Ted Robert Gurr, Why Do Minorities Rebel? The Worldwide Geography of Ethnopolitical Conflicts and Their Challenge to Global Security, in Federalism Against Ethnicity? Institutional, Legal, and Democratic Instruments to Prevent Violent Minority Conflicts 3, 11, 13 (Gunther Bachler ed., 1997). 59 Id. at 11. 60 See Randa M. Slim & Harold Saunders, Managing Conflict in Divided Societies: Lessons from Tajikistan, 12 Negot. J. 31, 43-44 (Jan. 1996). 61 See Gurr, supra note 58, at 13 (“[B]e prepared to devolve some state powers to people who are regionally concentrated .... [B]e prepared to negotiate power sharing arrangements at the center with politically organized communal groups.”). 62 See id. at 11 (noting how the “advanced industrial democracies are the only group of countries to register a decline in ethnopolitical conflict” and was a result of reforms including “limited empowerment” and “provisions for greater autonomy for regional nationalists”). 63 See, e.g., Monty G. Marshall, Social Disintegration and Arrested Development: A Systemic View, in Federalism Against Ethnicity?, supra note 58, at 15, 68 (discussing different forms of conventional and complex federalism, including asymmetric, regional, aggregated, and municipal). 64 Constantino & Merchant, supra note 16, at 121. 65 See Lawrence Susskind and Jeffrey Cruikshank, Breaking the Impasse: Consensual Approaches to Resolving Public Disputes 76-77 (1987) (arguing that “[w]e have put effective tools, including our three branches of government, to inappropriate tasks” and proposing a process for resolving disputes that is, inter alia, ad hoc and focused on the particular parties interested in the dispute rather than on typical public institutions); see also Carlson, Convening, supra note 34; Lawrence Susskind, A Negotiation Credo for Controversial Siting Disputes, 6 Negotiation J. 309, 310-11 (Oct. 1990). 66 See Ken Kollman et al., Decentralization and the Search for Policy Solutions, 16 J.L. Econ. & Org. 102 (2000) (demonstrating the benefits of decentralized experimentalism for solving some classes of problems). 67 See, e.g., Mintzberg, supra note 23, at 431-67 (describing adhocracy as a viable organizational form and outlining strategies for coordination); see also Ron Ashkenas et al., The Boundaryless Organization: Breaking the Chains of Organizational Structure (1995); Robert H. Waterman, Jr., Adhocracy: The Power to Change (1992). 68 On learning organizations, see generally, Chris Argyris, On Organizational Learning (2d ed. 1999); David A. Garvin, Building a Learning Organization, 71 Harv. Bus. Rev. 78 (Jul.-Aug. 1993); Senge, supra note 6. 69 See Fisher, supra note 33 (providing a good example of the application of this underlying theoretical posture). © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 20 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... 70 Fisher, supra note 1. 71 See Howard Raiffa, Post-Settlement Settlements, in Negotiation Theory and Practice, supra note 1, at 315; see also Max H. Bazerman et al., Post-Settlement Settlements in Two-Party Negotiations, in Negotiation Theory and Practice, supra note 1, at 331 (noting that “the success of the ongoing two-party ... relationship often depends largely on the propensity and ability of the negotiators to handle the PSS [post-settlement settlement] process”). 72 See Robert H. Mnookin et al., Beyond Winning: Negotiating to Create Value in Deals and Disputes 14 (2000) (identifying “different forecasts” as a source of value creation between parties). 73 UN Talks in Bonn Culminate in Accord on Interim Afghan Government, UN News Center (Dec. 5, 2001), at http://www.un.org/apps/news/storyAr.asp? NewsID=2337&Cr=afghan&Cr1=brahimi. 74 See Terry Moe, Politics and the Theory of Organization, 7 J.L. Econ. & Org. 106 (1991) (an analysis of the different considerations taken into account in the design of political institutions). 75 See Agreement on Provisional Arrangements in Afghanistan Pending the Re-Establishment of Permanent Government Institutions, Dec. 5, 2001 [hereinafter Bonn Agreement], at http:// www.uno.de/frieden/afghanistan/talks/agreement.htm. 76 Id. at § I (1). 77 Id. at § I (4). 78 Id. at § I (6). 79 Bonn Agreement, supra note 78, at § I (6). 80 Id. at § I (4). The provision actually requires elections to be held no later than two years from the date of the convening of the Loya Jirga. 81 Id. at § III (A)(1). 82 Id. at § III (A)(3). 83 See generally Bonn Talks: Who is Being Heard?, BBC News On-Line (Nov. 28, 2001) (“Despite hopes of a breakthrough at the conference, there are fears that the meeting is too selective in admitting some groups, and not listening to the voices of others.”), at http:// news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/south_asia/newsid_1681000/1681329.stm; see also Peter Baker, Afghan Factions Criticize Accord; Some Leaders Vow To Boycott Regime, Wash. Post, Dec. 7, 2001, at A32 (“With copies of the 10-page document still churning out of fax machines, several key figures, including a powerful northern warlord and the current de facto finance minister, complained that the U.N.-brokered pact did not include all the factions in Afghan society. Without broad support, they warned, the agreement could be doomed to failure.”). © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 21 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... 84 See Artie McConnel, Ex-Taliban Officials Form New Political Group, Eurasia Insight (Dec. 27, 2001), at http:// www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav122701.shtml. 85 See id. 86 See Steven R. Ratner, The Cambodian Settlement Agreements, 86 AJIL 1, 5 (1993). The situation of Cambodia during the peace negotiations and Afghanistan today have several similarities. Professor Ratner’s description of the context of the Paris Accords could have just as easily been written after the conclusion of the Bonn Agreement: The long, sad history of the Cambodian conflict required any comprehensive settlement to address numerous elements: a civil war among four factions, each of which had taken a turn at governing the country since its independence from France; invasion by a neighboring state seeking regional hegemony; external assistance to the factions; support of the belligerents by the major powers; a history of gross violations of human rights; a vast refugee problem; and a devastated economy requiring massive reconstruction. The settlement agreements confront these problems through reliance on, and reaffirmation of, existing norms of international law and through the creation of new regimes and institutions that could form important precedents for future conflicts. Id. at 1. 87 See Charles Recknagel, Afghanistan: Rabbani Says UN Forced Cabinet Choices, Eurasia Insight (Dec. 13, 2001) (“[T]he Bonn accord sidestepped this older generation of Afghan leaders--many of whom have fought each other in factional wars--in favor of a younger generation of cabinet leaders.”), at http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/pp121301.shtml. 88 See Charles Recknagel, Afghanistan: Ethnic Turkmen Seek Peace-Building Role, Eurasia Insight (Jan. 4, 2002) (“With no warlords or power brokers to represent them on the national scene, the ethnic Turkmen had no voice in the Bonn peace deal in early December.”), at http:// www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/pp010602.shtml. 89 See Karl E. Meyer & Shareen Blair Brysac, Tournament of Shadows: The Great Game and the Race for Empire in Central Asia (1999). 90 See Ahmed Rashid, Back with a Vengeance: Proxy War in Afghanistan, 52 World Today 60 (Mar. 1996) (stating that “regional countries are pumping in unprecedented amounts of arms and ammunition to their various proxies, undermining United Nations attempts to broker a peace settlement”). 91 See, e.g., Tajik Special Forces Commander Cautious on Afghan Peace Prospects: Q&A with General Sukhrob Kasymov, EurasiaNet Q&A (Jan. 3, 2001) (“I am not that optimistic [about peace]. It’s been 20 years, and the war still goes on there. In my opinion, the war will assume a partisan form and will last for very long.”), at http:// www.eurasianet.org/departments/qanda/articles/eav010302.shtml; see also Sergei Blagov, Russia Strives to Maintain Political Clout in Afghanistan, Eurasia Insight (Feb. 12, 2002), at http:// www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav021202a.shtml; Todd Diamond, Suspicions of Iranian Meddling Becloud Bid for Afghan Peacekeepers, Eurasia Insight (Jan. 30, 2002) at http:// www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav013002a.shtml; Artie McConnell, Iranian Conservatives Seek to Influence Developments in Afghanistan, Eurasia Insight (Feb. 14, 2002) at http:// www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav021402.shtml. 92 See, e.g., Recknagel, supra note 87 (noting suggestion of a Supreme Council of ten to twenty members to represent past fighters). 93 Bonn Agreement, supra note 75, at § C(1). 94 See Philip Smucker, Split Grows in Afghan Government, Dawn Internet Edition (Feb. 21, 2002) (reporting on power struggles within the IA), at http://www.dawn.com/2002/02/21/int15.htm. © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 22 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... 95 Bonn Agreement, supra note 75, at Annex IV. 96 See, e.g., Elizabeth Bumiller, White House Letter: The Politics of Plight and the Gender Gap, N.Y. Times, Nov. 19, 2001, at B2 (“The Bush administration, in a worldwide offensive ... was not only publicizing the brutality toward women under the Taliban ... but promising that the United States would insist that women have power in a post-Taliban Afghanistan.”). 97 See Ilene R. Prusher, For Woman Minister, Rebuilding Afghanistan is a Personal Quest, Christian Science Monitor (Feb. 7, 2002) available at 7, http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0207/p07s02-wosc.html. 98 See Securing Communities for Reconstruction in Afghanistan: A Summary of Discussions with Community and NGO Leaders, Harv. Program on Humanitarian Pol’y and Conflict Res. Pol’y Brief 2 (Apr. 16, 2002), at http:// www.preventconflict.org/portal/centralasia/Brief5vol1.pdf. 99 See Bonn Agreement, supra note 75, at Annex IV. 100 See National Development Framework: Draft--For http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/sar/sa.nsf/Attachments/frame/ $File/ndf.pdf. consultation (April 2002), at 101 See Bonn Agreement, supra note 75, at § I(2). The IA is formally only one of three entities that together make up the Interim Authority. The other two entities are the Loya Jirga Commission and the Supreme Court. One could, therefore, imagine another entity to perform information gathering. 102 Id. at § B(1). 103 See Afghan Cabinet Begins Work, BBC News (Dec. 23, 2001) (reporting that “some ministers turned up to the first meeting [of the cabinet] with their own militia men”), at http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/south_asia/newsid_ 1725000/1725871.stm. 104 See supra text accompanying notes 83, 89, 90, 92, and 93. 105 See Securing Communities for Reconstruction in Afghanistan, supra note 98, at 2. 106 See The Role of Islam in Shaping the Future of Afghanistan, Harv. Program on Humanitarian Pol’y and Conflict Res. Pol’y Brief 2 (Oct. 15, 2001) at http://www.preventconflict.org/portal/centralasia/brief2_final1106.pdf. 107 Procedures for the Election of the Members of the Emergency http://www.un.org.pk/latest-dev/key-doc-loyerjirga.htm (last visited Apr. 28, 2002). Loya Jirga, at arts. 4-6, at 108 Howard W. French, More Nations Join Afghan Aid Effort, N.Y. Times, Jan. 22, 2002, at A1. 109 See Wali Jan, Central Authority Breaking Down?, Institute for War and Peace Reporting (Apr. 11, 2002), at http://www.iwpr.net/index.pl? archive/rca/rca_200204_114_3_eng.txt. 110 Bonn Agreement, supra note 75, at § I (4). © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 23 WILLIAM GOLDMAN 10/3/2011 For Educational Use Only DESIGNING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE CONFLICT:..., 8 Harv. Negot. L. Rev.... 111 See Dorf & Sabel, supra note 2, for a proposal that is similar, in spirit if not in details, but directed toward the American constitutional process. 112 Carl Glickman, Pretending Not to Know What We Know, 48 Educ. Leadership 4 (May 1991) (lamenting the fact that so much of what is known about teaching and learning is not translated into practice on schools). End of Document © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. © 2011 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 24