Seasonal climate forecasts: a tool to decrease vulnerability under climatic and
macro-economical variations in South America
Claudine Dereczynski, Marta Vinocur, Alejandro Leon, Alvaro Roel
Agricultural producers depend heavily on climate and the macro-economic
environment for their decision-making process. Both climate and the economy can affect
growers in different ways due to different endowments and responsiveness. If both
variables evolve in the negative direction simultaneously, they can amplify risk and
vulnerability of farmers .
Under variable climatic conditions, the use of seasonal climate forecast (SCF) is
seen as a potential tool to reduce growers’ vulnerability. On the other hand, the value of
the forecast for farmers may change under different macro-economic scenarios.
Few studies have shown the value of the forecast as perceived by farmers,
especially under unstable economical circumstances as it is usually the case in South
America.
This international and interdisciplinary research project is aimed at:
- understanding how the value of SCF may change for agricultural growers of one
specific crop across four South American countries,
- determining how could vulnerability change accordingly for different types of
maize growers in specific locations in different countries,
- attempting to demonstrate the usefulness of SCF for farmers in their decisionmaking process. This should be of high value for the growers themselves and also for
policy makers,
- increasing the linkages between forecasters and end-users
Methodology
1. The countries included will be Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay. All of them have
experienced neoliberal economic regimes for more than a decade. They show a wide
array of economic policies and institutional arrangements that have shaped their
agricultural reality.
2. Study sites: two locations in Argentina (Pergamino and Rio Cuarto), two in Brazil
(Ceara and Rio Grande do Sul), one in Uruguay (Colonia), and one in Chile (Rancagua).
These areas have diverse agroecological characteristics; nevertheless, maize is grown in
all of them. Also, climate and its predictability vary.
3. Historical data will be gathered and analyzed for each country, e.g. exchange rates,
long- and short-term interest rates, agricultural policies e.g. subsidies and programs for
technology transfer, and international agreements e.g., Mercosur. At the local level,
annual crop production, area under cultivation, precipitation, and temperature.
4. Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability indices will be developed from data gathered through a survey applied to
different strata of farmers. The purpose of the survey will be to identify different
vulnerability to either climatic or economic variations.
5. Improvement of forecast
A series of workshops with forecasters and farmers will help identify the needs of the
latter group and the ways to tailor the forecast accordingly.
6. Increase forecast utilization
Through workshops different techniques e.g., optimization models, will be used to
demonstrate different responses that growers may adopt to reduce their vulnerability
and/or increase profits using forecasts.
Capacity building
Multidisciplinary/International Interaction: periodic meetings
First meeting: to bring PIs and co-PIs together, determine basic methodologies
e.g., selection of farmers at each study site, surveying procedures, country followup reports.
Following meetings: every six months for updating
Multidisciplinary National periodic meetings:
PI’ s periodic meetings with co PIs and students.
2 workshops with farmers at every study site
Training of college students in data collection and analysis (Bachelor’ s thesis)
Expected Results
Make a more useful forecast available to farmers,
Increase farmers’ adoption of SCF in their decision making processes,
Consolidate a network of farmers – researchers – forecasters, and
Increase policy makers awareness of the differential impact of macroeconomics over
farmers vulnerability
Expected expenses
Support for undergraduate students
Workshops
Survey
International and national meetings
Dissemination costs
Supplies
25%
25%
15%
20%
10%
5%
Research Team
The basic team will be conformed by 4 PIs, one from each of the participant countries.
Dereczynski is a climatologist at CPTEC-Brazil, and will be in charge of providing
seasonal forecasts. Vinocur is an agronomist at Universidad Nacional de Rio Cuarto who
has vast experience in crop models. Roel is an agronomist at INIA-Uruguay, with
extended experience in crop production and long-term relationships with growers. Leon
is an agricultural economist associated to the University of Chile, with experience in
anthropological surveys.