Forecasting
Uncertainty
To a forecaster, a good hurricane forecast is getting the location right
within 50 miles and the wind speeds within 8 mph in the period 12
hours before landfall. As an emergency manager, your idea of a good
forecast would be to know the location and intensity with 100%
accuracy 72 hours ahead of time. That gap is the reality that underlies
decision making.
Why is it that forecasts are imperfect, and how do forecasters and
emergency managers take that uncertainty into account? By choosing
Sources of Uncertainty in the diagram below, you will learn what
contributes to errors in today's forecasts and how large these errors
are. Choose Solutions: Dealing with Uncertainty to explore information
and practices that can help you prepare for a hurricane threat.