FINAL REPORT
IPM Seed Grant:
Workshop for Developing a Cost-Effective Rational Strategy to Detect
Soybean Rust in the United States (August 1-3, 2010)
Prepared by:
Donald E. Hershman
University of Kentucky
Funding Level: $14, 956
Participants: Karen Garrett (Kansas State University), Stephen Aultman and Terry Hurley
(University of Minnesota), Ed Sikora (Auburn University), Loren Giesler (University of
Nebraska), Julie Golod (Zedx, Inc) and Scott Isard (The Pennsylvania State University) and Don
Hershman (University of Kentucky)
Agenda:
Session 1: 7-9 p.m. 1 Aug. Introductions, Workshop objectives, SBR sentinel
plot monitoring experience, and overview of AFRI PIPE3 proposal.
Session 2: 8:15-noon. Research reports: Isard, Autman and Garrett.
Session 3: 2-7 p.m. 2 Aug. Planning future collaborative proposals
Session 4: 8:15-10:00 a.m. 3 Aug. Planning future collaborative proposals
continued
Workshop Objective:
To bring together researchers who apply network, econometric, and epidemiological models to
optimize soybean rust monitoring efforts in the U.S. with key Extension Specialists to: 1)
develop a strategy to integrate the network and econometric analyses for optimizing sentinel plot
locations with epidemiology based models of soybean rust spread and 2) develop research
proposals for conducting an integrated, multidisciplinary analysis for optimizing the placement
of sentinel plots in the southern U.S. for the benefit of both southern soybean growers and the
national soybean industry.
Notes from Session 1.
After introductions and a review of workshop objectives, Giesler presented the soybean rust
sentinel plot monitoring system. The presentation included a brief history of the monitoring
program, sampling protocols, distribution of plots, funding situation, and impact assessments.
The discussion that followed focused on: rate of return from investment in monitoring,
importance of protocols, web use statistics, value of conference calls, overreaction to positive
SBR observations, and the importance of reporting positive vs. negative disease observations.
Isard described the AFRI proposal talking about how PIPE3 will implement a process for
transferring sustainable ownership of established monitoring networks to the private sector and
how it will support pest monitoring programs that ‘graduate’ by continuing to provide
infrastructure access. The discussion that followed focused on the timeline for development,
implementation, and stakeholder engagement for privatization and how the process to selfsustainability would free funds to support planning and monitoring for other high consequence
pests.
Notes from Session 2.
Isard presented a scenario of soybean rust spread in the U.S. with 4 stages: 1) overwintering on
kudzu along Gulf Coast; 2) local spread into commercial soybean fields; 3)
Inoculum increase in commercial fields in South; and 4) aerial transport northward. He
compared monthly maps of precipitation for years with SBR observations and discussed
atmospheric pathways for spread from the Gulf Coast northward.
Aultman and Hurley presented their dynamic model of farmer decision making framed in terms
of the “two-armed bandit problem”. The model focused on the fungicide decisions farmers
should make to minimize the expected cost of managing soybean rust as they learn more about
the probability of soybean rust infections occurring each year.
Garrett presented a network analysis methodology for predicting the spread of soybean rust using
SBR sentinel plot observations. The methodology allows SBR spores to jump across multiple
counties and incorporates wind speed and direction to bias spread in the downwind direction.
Results indicate that removing information for randomly selected sentinel plots had only a
modest effect on the predictive performance of the model when up to 50% of the plots were
removed but removing more than that substantially decreased their models predictive ability.
There was much discussion during, between and after each of the presentations.
Notes from Sessions 3 and 4.
A broad outline of a Research Proposal was developed by the group. A list of outputs/questions
to be answered included: 1) optimize location of plots or scouting efforts; 2) geographic scales of
sampling; 3) appropriate nature of scaling; 4) how do epidemic processes scale; 5) how will
climate change affect the risk; 6) what is the optimal distribution of monitoring to achieve
learning vs early warning; 7) how to detect climate changes impact on source area and strength,
and pathways on an “ongoing basis” coupled with still providing timely and relevant
management decisions; and 8) how growers respond to models vs. monitoring data?
A list of research considerations that were discussed included: 1) scale of movement; 2) learning
vs early warning; 3) pathways and connectedness; 4) in-season vs. across season time frames; 5)
variability of sources; 6) disease triangle; 7) efficacy of management in response to monitoring
signal /treatment window; 8) cross pest interactions/multiple-interactions; 9) accuracy of
monitoring signal; 10) detection approaches and level of detection; and 11) scales of governance
for network
Potential outputs or end points of the proposal were also discussed: 1) Easy guide to
management decisions (traffic light approach to communicate risk/approach); 2) validation of
both in-season and pre-season model (different time scale and potentially resolution); 3) network
models for forecasting disease spread; 4) network models for developing recommendations for
targeted modeling; 5) established value for monitoring networks; 6) strategies for sustaining
monitoring networks; and 7) novel conceptual framework for continental scale invasions and
monitoring requirements.
A consensus on two action items was achieved. It was also decided to expand the proposal to
multiple cropping systems but limit pests for the purpose of research proposals to southern corn
rust, leaf/stripe/stem rusts, and soybean rust.
Outputs (based on, or significantly impacted by discussions during the funded workshop).
Research Articles
1. Sutrave, S., Scoglio, C., Isard, S. A, Hutchinson, J. M. S., Garrett, K. A. (2012)
Identifying Highly Connected Counties Compensates for Resource Limitations when
Evaluating National Spread of an Invasive Pathogen. PLoS ONE 7(6): e37793.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0037793
2. Garrett, K. A. 2012. Information networks for disease: commonalities in human
management networks and within-host signaling networks. Eur. J. Plant Pathol.
133:75–88. DOI 10.1007/s10658-012-9963-y
White Paper
Hurley, T., K. Garrett, S. Aultman, E. Sikora, L. Giesler, J. Golod, S. Isard, and D. Hershman.
2010. Integrated Pest Management Crop Insurance for Air Borne Plant Pathogens.
Successful Grants
United Soybean Board (2011, 2012):
Project Director: E. Sikora
Project: Sentinel Plot Monitoring Program for Soybean Rust
$330,550/year
Unsuccessful Grant
Agriculture and Food Research Initiative, Global Food Security: Program Delivery and
Implementation of Wide-area Pest Monitoring (2010).
Proposal Number: 2010-04836
Project Director: Scott A. Isard
Proposal Title: Pest Information Platform for Extension, Education and Engagement
Outcomes
1. Soybean rust has been successfully monitored using a greatly reduced, efficient soybean
rust monitoring network.
2. Collaborative grants and a White Paper have been prepared.
3. Scientific literature regarding pest monitoring has been enhanced
4. New collaborative projects, such as the I-PIPE have been developed.
Potential Impacts
Soybean producers will potentially save millions of dollars annually as a result of our ability to
continue to successfully monitor soybean rust using a scaled down, strategic monitoring network.