American Shore & Beach Preservation Association
National Coastal Conference, Virginia Beach, VA, October 14-17, 2014
HURRICANE ISABEL – A LOOK BACK AND TO THE FUTURE
Matthew F. Shultz, P.E.1
Abstract for Presentation
Hurricane Isabel made landfall in September of 2003 and was one of the most significant tropical
cyclones to affect the mid-Atlantic area. Flooding impacts were severe in the Hampton Roads
area of Virginia and throughout the entire Chesapeake Bay region with surge elevations ranging
from 6.5 feet at the NOAA Sewells Point VA gauge and 7 feet at the Baltimore, MD gauge,
relative to MSL.
This presentation will take a look back at how Hurricane Isabel impacted the region and provide
some context for its recurrence interval based on an extremal analysis of historical recorded
water levels. The Isabel water levels, waves, and inundation extent will also be compared with
the updated 1-percent-annual-chance floodplain along with waves and water levels determined
from the most recent FEMA Region III Coastal Studies, which incorporate results from
USACE’s comprehensive storm surge modeling study.
The use of a historical storm can also be beneficial in communicating potential impacts of sea
level rise combined with a surge event. A look at how sea level rise may exasperate storm
impacts in the Hampton Roads area will be given.
1
Sr. Coastal Engineer, Dewberry, 8401 Arlington Boulevard, Fairfax, VA 22031, 703-208-1763 (phone), 703-2060836 (fax), mshultz@dewberry.com
Mr. Shultz is a Senior Coastal Engineer/Project Manager at Dewberry with specialization in the evaluation and
design of structural and non-structural shoreline protection and restoration alternatives and in the modeling of
coastal and estuarine hydrodynamics, waves, and sediment transport processes. He received his M.S. in the field of
Ocean Engineering from the University of Rhode Island in 2005 and his B.S. in the field of Civil Engineering from
Tufts University in 1996.