Alert Bulletin 3
Earthquake Aftermath in Northern Pakistan
MONSOONS MAY TRIGGER MAJOR LANDSLIDES
The World Conservation Union (IUCN), the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) and CARE
International warn against a serious environmental hazard in earthquake affected areas
This alert bulletin aims to highlight a potentially serious
environmental hazard faced by the earthquake
affected areas, which is going to assume alarming
proportions during the coming monsoon season. It is a
major threat to the lives and livelihoods of a large
population. The cracks and unstable earth resulting
from the earthquake may cause massive landslides
and loss of life and agricultural land in the event of
heavy or extended rains.
With the monsoons due in barely 15 days, this is
indeed a very challenging task. However, there is no
alternative to a brisk action - for disaster preparedness
and mitigation - if another human and environmental
catastrophe is to be prevented.
According to Dr. David Petley, University of Durham,
this is probably is the greatest landslide threat
worldwide at present (see the reference at the end). In
the monsoon season, the combination of intense,
prolonged rainfall and increasing groundwater levels
presents a high risk of landslide disaster.
Geotechnical scientists (landslides experts) working in
the earthquake affected areas have realized that slope
stability issues were much more serious than originally
estimated (see images). With monsoons due in mid
July, when an average rainfall of 650 mm could be
expected in 6 weeks, it is highly likely that soil made
heavy by absorbing water might trigger unstable
slopes to slide down. The catastrophe has been
prevented so far by the absence of heavy rains since
the earthquake.
Slope cracks, indicating incipient failure, in the hills near
Botha, Muzzaffarabad (Petley, D.N. 2006).
The Government authorities such as the Geological
Survey of Pakistan are in the process of identifying
landslide threats in the area. However, to-date no
comprehensive landslide hazard mapping and
subsequent risk analysis has been conducted to cover
the entire quake affected area. Moreover, no aerial
photography is available at present, and neither any
systematic stability analysis or ground investigation
has been conducted on such slopes.
According to news reports, the AJK Government and
ERRA – based on preliminary studies - have plans to
relocate some 55,000 earthquake survivors around
Muzzaffarabad to safer areas before the monsoon
season. However, it is clear that while the authorities
have a genuine concern, they are struggling to deal
with this potential disaster.
Experts have advised the local communities to stay
away from the river beds because of the risk of flash
floods, to carefully observe the large cracks on the hill
slopes once the rainy season sets in, and keep the
local authorities informed of any changes. Moreover,
measures should be taken to divert runoff water from
the cracks on unstable slopes. This needs to be done
immediately.
A multiple crack array in the area of Upper Killha, near
Muzzaffarabad (Petley, D.N. 2006).
References:
Petley, David N. June 07 2006. (In email conversation), Wilson
Professor of Hazard and Risk, International Landslide Centre.
Department of Geography, University of Durham, Durham DH1 3LE.
Tel: +44 191 334 1909 Fax: +44 191 334 1801. Email:
d.n.petley@durham.ac.uk . http://www.landslidecentre.org
For more information:
IUCN, Shahzad: shahzad.ahmad@isb.iucnp.org
IUCN, Afnan Khan: afnan.khan@isb.iucnp.org
CARE, Atfah Parvez: aparvez@care.org
WWF, Ibrahim Khan: ibk65@yahoo.com