SUMMARY OF PROPOSED ACTIONS FOLLOWING THE WORKSHOP HELD IN
FORTALEZA, MARCH 2008.
Virtual Center for Northern South America
(write, as concise as possible, texts for the following.. one paragraph? )
1. Participating countries (and institutions) – Colombia,Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname,
French Guyana(Martinique), Brazil (initially). NMHSs (+ network of national and local
institutions).
2 & 3 State of climate and climate fluctuations – forcing mechanisms
Include the ocean (Atlantic, Pacific, Caribbean and the North Pole). Significant weather
events, severe conditions and extremes (ITCZ, Upper tropospheric troughs, easterly
waves, …)
The northern portion of South America and Central America are affected by a wide
range of meteorological systems of different spatial and time scales.
Perhaps, the most conspicuous system of global scale that affect the whole area is the
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that modules both the weather variability and
the climate of the tropical region (approximately between 5ºS and 15ºN). This system is
also affected by transient disturbances establishing feedback mechanisms that triggers
convective activity and tropical storms also affecting its own spatial and temporal
variability.
The tropical Atlantic is one of the preferred regions of the world in terms of hurricane
development and tracks. Hurricane activity is very sensitive to sea level temperature,
which has a slower temporal variability, making possible some guidance in terms of
seasonal time scales. On the other hand, tropical systems of synoptic scale including
eastern waves, tropical waves, tropical upper tropospheric troughs and cold fronts,
among others, interact to local forcing as topography and boundary layer (ocean
surface) to control the tropical convection.
During the austral summer (December to a March) tropical South America is immerse
on the South American Monsoon System, a complex circulation pattern that includes the
Bolivian High, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, tropical upper level vortex over
Northeastern Brazil, the Chaco Low, etc which are fundamental features of the rainy
season.
In summary, the broad diversity of meteorological systems of many time and spatial
scales that affect tropical South and Central America makes the forecast a very difficult
task. The geographical extension of most of the involved systems usually exceeds the
size of the individual countries. For this reasons, the forecast procedure should be
intended as a challenge for all the participating countries.
Global coupled oceanic-atmospheric phenomena as the El Niño Southern Oscillation
and other aspects, as the sea surface temperature of the Tropical Atlantic, has strong
influence on the climate variability of the entire target region. Because of that, northern
South America and Central America has a very important potential in terms of seasonal
climate forecast. That effort could be materialized through a climate outlook monthly
forum including the most important meteorological and climate institutions of all the
participating countries.
4. Monitoring (surface and upper air networks, radars, satellite, Pirata, ….)
Proceeding with an adequate monitoring will be a necessary action for integrating the
observation network. Those networks should be built on basis of surface and upper air
stations, radars stations, satellites stations, moored and drifting buoys. The information
from the network will be available to the institutions in real time.
The capacity and the need of the institutions are described in the tables in Annex
4.1, 4.2 and 4.3.
5. Forecasting (NWP models, subjective forecasting, routines, methods, … graphical
tools …); the ocean component,
The meeting identified that there exist a large number of forecasting tools, which could
be use for the purpose of establishing an adequate chain for the use of NWP-statistical
forecasting. The meeting also identified that the tools are either not always used as
should be or there is a lack of knowledge of specific subjects. Therefore, the participants
suggested better building capacity mechanism for filling such gaps. Some actions were
proposed, for improving the activities on forecasting, mainly regarding to severe
weather, such as building capacity, information exchanging and an institutional
cooperation network (at national and regional levels). Such actions were defined given
levels of complexity, at short, medium and large time schedule, as described in ANNEX
II.
6. Climate outlook forum (Univ. West Indies, FUNCEME, INMET, INPE/CPTEC,
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, DECEA, IRI, IRD, CIIFEN,...)
7. Exchange of information between the countries involved (network, intranet,
..between the responsible national entity,..)
Current communication links and immediate future needs.
The meeting reviewed the current status of …
8. How information and forecasts are exchanged for local users (current and future).
How to bring the user as an integral part of the forecast – use exercise?
Linkages with Civil Defenses and product dissemination (audiences?)
Firstly, the meeting decided that USERS will be the DMCPA* authorities, regarding the
use of any alert or information that will be available in the Virtual Center. Having this in
mind, the meeting also decided that this exchanging of information should be done as
clear as possible, as way to minimize risk of doubt/crossing information.
Mechanism for distribute information were also discussed, and some example of actions
were presented, such as that at Fortaleza, a member of Civil Defense meets regularly at
FUNCEME for discussion about critical situations. On the other hand, the State Govern
Civil Defence, has a Official Protocol for actions regarding severe weather. Thus the
local authorities make decision according to this protocol. The representative of
Colombia explained that the country has a service (SNPAD) for emergency response,
which is subdivide into specialized sub-commissions (Meteorology, Vulcanology and
Earthquakes) with participants from various sectors of Society.
* (DMCPA – disaster management and civil protection authorities)
The participants pointed out the need for a possibility on having a software that could
integrate meteorological and occurrences information altogether, for building sceneries
for helping decision makers. Although some of Civil Defense organisms in Brazil,
Colombia and Panama (examples that were given during the meeting) have a good
relationship with the Meteorological Institutes (e.g. NHMs), there was identified a need
for better communication among such centers as well as among participant countries.
Thus the Virtual Centre envisages strength on this subject tool. A summary of the needs
for the dissemination of early warnings was presented in the meeting and the
participants found that software for identification of vulnerability areas and
discrimination of severe/extreme events, according to specific needs, were needed. A
data archiving system is also important for storing cases and occurrences, which will
allow better analysis and further improvement of the whole system. Besides, training
on both sides, Meteorology and Civil Defense, is a key point for successful realization
for the Virtual Centre. Training should be done at different stages of expertise, from
operational aspects to research and developments. Use of already in-place programs
and projects will an asset, given the fact that the methodologies are already in use.
ANNEX III describes the above suggestions in detail.
9. The challenges of forming a network of collaborating institutions (which ones? )
‘ international network’ versus ‘ national networks’ – how to link them?
Common software for weather forecast briefing, …
10. Next steps ? Actors and split of responsibilities
a. Decide on which basic data and information to be exchanged… questionnaire
b. Time frame for activities and actions ..
c. All participants send additional information to be included in an initial ‘ project
proposal’
ANNEX II
Metas em curto prazo (3 meses)
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Criar uma página com diversos modelos com saídas gráficas padronizadas a
todos;
Produtos de satélite
Uma análise sinótica da região;
Canal de demandas por necessidade.
Levantamentos das necessidades de materiais e equipamentos
Problemas de comunicação com usuário
Fomentar a troca de produtos
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Centralização de alertas na homepage
Promover capacitação em análises e prognósticos
Metas de médio prazo (1 ano)
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Home-page de alerta (uso restrito, de início)
Estabelecer métricas comuns de avaliação do modelo numéricos
Resgatar séries históricas e disponibilizar
Validação de modelos utilizados de tempo e clima
Assimilação de dados
Canal comunicação com o Visit View ou skype para discussão virtual;
Facilitar a instalação de modelos regionais e treinamentos nos mesmos
Promover reuniões anuais
Capacitação em nível de pós-graduação:
Especialização em análise e previsão de tempo e clima ou mestrado a
distância sendo um ano presencial e um ano à distância. (publicação OMM
258).
Metas de longo prazo (3 anos)
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Rodar modelos regionais em domínio comum para utilizar como condições de
fronteira de modelos de alta resolução e gerar multi-modelo ensamble.
Assimilação de dados de satélite, radar e convencionais.
Avaliar objetivamente a desempenho dos modelos numéricos regionais