Message #2013-02
ISSUED: 9:30 p.m., Tuesday, January 29, 2013.
SUBJECT:
WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK
ISSUED TO: Municipalities of Smith-Ennismore-Lakefield (SEL), Douro-Dummer (DD), Asphodel-Norwood
(AN), Otonabee-South Monaghan (OSM), Cavan-Monaghan (CM), City of Kawartha Lakes (CKL), and the City
of Peterborough (CP), as well as the ORCA’s other partners in emergency flood management.
This message advises that a Flood Outlook message is now in effect for the whole of the geographical
jurisdiction of the Otonabee Region Conservation Authority. A Flood Outlook message is issued as an early
notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt or other
conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams or a rise in water levels. A Flood Outlook message is
NOT a Flood Watch or Flood Warning message.
WEATHER OUTLOOK
Over the next 48 hours a low pressure systems will track through southern Ontario. With associated warm
fronts, the daytime high air temperatures for Peterborough and the Kawarthas will be: +40C Today (Tuesday)
and +120C on Wednesday. In addition, the possibility of freezing rain, changing to rain later today is forecast.
Total accumulations of rain up to 30mm are possible over the next 48 hours. This combination of rain and
melting snowpack could produce total available runoff up to 60mm. A majority of the rainfall is expected late
Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, which will also coincide with the warmest air temperatures.
FLOOD RISK
Current stream flow conditions in Peterborough and the Kawarthas are normal for this time of year, which
means that there exists considerable channel capacity. With the combination of warm temperatures and
significant precipitation, there still exists the possibility of nuisance flooding next to low-lying flood prone
areas. In addition, the increase in flow and depth in area creeks and streams may cause unsafe conditions
especially around culverts, bridges and stream banks. The public is advised to avoid these areas until flows
have subsided.
Staff of the Otonabee Region Conservation Authority will continue to monitor the situation closely over the
next 24 – 72 hours and provide an update should the forecast conditions deteriorate. This Watershed
Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook will remain in effect until Thursday January 31st, 2013.
- 30 –
Ian Boland, C.E.T.
Flood Forecasting & Warning Duty Officer
Ph.: 705-745-5791 x 231
The Otonabee Region Conservation Authority
250 Milroy Drive, Peterborough, Ontario K9H 7M9
BUS: (705) 745-5791
FAX: (705) 745-7488
WEBPAGE: www.otonabee.com
Flood Watch Hotline
Ph.: (705) 745-5791, ext. 228