FIRE BEHAVIOR FORECAST
FORECAST NO.
2
PREDICTION FOR:
FIRE NAME:
Buckhorn-Davis Ranch
SHIFT DATE:
April 28, 2000; Friday
DATE ISSUED:
Apr 28, 2000
TIME ISSUED:
0700h, 4/28/00
AGENCY/UNIT:
Larimer County
SIGNED Kelly Close (FBAN); Poudre Fire Authority
:
Day
SHIFT
WEATHER SUMMARY: See attached Fire Weather Forecast.
An upper ridge of high pressure will build over the region.
Forecast maximum temps. 66-75, min. RH 15-25%.
20-ft. winds downslope/valley 4-7 mph before 0900h, then out of the SE, 6-12 mph after 0900h. Possibility of gusty,
erratic winds in the afternoon with cumulus buildup.
Clear, then partly cloudy in the afternoon with cumulus buildup and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Possibility of scattered afternoon showers Saturday.
Predicted Haines Index of 5 (moderate-high potential for large fire growth).
FIRE BEHAVIOR:
Minimum RH is expected to be 15-25% today, likely reaching a minimum at approx. 1500h. Humidity recovery was
forecast to be 75-85% last night, and is expected to be 55-65% tonight.
Dead fuel are dry, and some larger diameter fuels (100-hr and some 1000-hr) are being been completely consumed.
Surface fires will exhibit moderate spread rates and intensities, with typical flame lengths 2-4 ft. However, expect
torching and possible re-burn if strong afternoon winds occur.
Burning jackpots of heavy fuels will continue to provide a potential source of firebrands.
Watch for increasing fire activity in the draw below FR5. Fuels are heavy in this area, the canopy is somewhat
continuous, and a “chimney effect” is possible.
2-5 DAY OUTLOOK:A frontal passage is expected Saturday afternoon, with “breezy” winds and cooler
temperatures. Winds will shift from the north. The weather forecast calls for thunderstorm development with only a
slight chance of showers.
Cooler temperatures likely on Sunday, with a chance of precipitation. Rain/snow mix likely through Monday.
AIR OPERATIONS:Favorable flying conditions through most of the day.
Possibility of turbulent conditions from locally strong winds in the afternoon. Expect erratic winds and downdrafts if
thunderstorm development occurs.
SAFETY:
There are still a lot of unburned interior islands, with active areas. Watch for intense burning in jackpots of heavier
fuels.
Burned trees may pose a safety problem. Use caution, especially in areas that have burned intensely.
Watch for gusty, erratic downdraft winds from developing thunderstorms in the afternoon.
If winds develop from afternoon thundercells, watch for spot fires.