The American Settlement Show
Professor Abdul Sattar Kassem
For decades, the US has been reiterating her position concerning the issue of Israeli
settlements on the Palestinian land occupied in 1967, and saying that these
settlements are an obstacle to peace. We have been hearing this statement over,
and over again from the different American presidents, and the different figures of
the consecutive administrations. However, Israel has continued to build settlements
and the US hasn't taken any measures to deter Israel. What became evident over the
years that the US was just making verbal opposition to settlement building, but
elevating her cooperation on mostly every level with Israel particularly on the
strategic ones.
American Measures
Only president Bush, Sr. decided not to provide Israel financial guarantees in the
early 1990's because of its settlement activities, but this measure was not strong
enough to stop Israel, and it proved to be a failure. Israel went on, and the American
measure disappeared, and the cries from all sides against the settlements went on.
The Arabs have been complaining all the time, and asking the US to exert pressure
on Israel, but receiving only tranquilizing words.
Probably the US truly means that the settlements are an obstacle to peace, but that
obstacle doesn't worth more than verbal opposition. And when it is compared with
the vital interests of the US in the area that Israel cooperates to fulfill, that obstacle
doesn't mean a lot. Certainly, strategic interests have a priority to marginal interests,
and measures are out of consideration when they become jeopardy.
The Arab regimes who are the underdogs have proved to be extremely incapable,
and unwilling to do the job themselves are too weak to press the US to take tangible
steps against Israel; and if they had the strength they wouldn't need to seek refuge
in the US, and they would drive Israel out by force. The weakness of the Arabs, and
their dependency on the US in security, economic and financial matters have
comforted the US to give Israel all the time needed to create a Jewish society in the
West Bank.
What I am saying that, in practical terms, the US has never been serious against the
Israeli settlements, and gave Israel the support needed through different channels
other than the mass media. The US extends financial, economic, military, political
and diplomatic assistance to Israel, and if she was serious we could have seen
practical steps against Israel. This American policy speaks for her-self in as far as the
so called security wall is concerned. The US was consulted before Israel started
building the wall, and Israel didn't start the project without the American consent. As
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Israel proceeded, the US played the role of line-correction. The US listened to some
Palestinian complaints and asked Israel to minimize Palestinian pains as much as
possible; i.e. to the extent that doesn't jeopardize the Israeli security. That is why
Israel decided to release the village of Baqa Ash-Sharqiyya near the city of Tulkerm,
and to release one squared kilometer of land near Ramallah.
Obama against the Settlements
Now it is president Obama who has given firm and strong statements against the
settlements. He was clear in his Cairo speech about the issue, and asked Israel to
facilitate the path toward peace. At the beginning, Obama was against the
settlements, then he started talking about freezing settlement activities, and now he
is talking about a temporary freeze. His firm wordings have been shaking, and it is
very possible that the time when he starts talking like his predecessor will come.
President Obama has tied the freeze of building settlement units with normalizing
the relations between the Arabs and the Israelis. He keeps asking the Arab regimes
to normalize the relations as Israel freezes building new housing units. Of course,
what Obama hasn't being saying is that these regimes have been normalizing the
relations with Israel for a long time, but he wants them to announce that and follow
a well organized plan to normalize relations at the grass root level. The Egyptian,
Jordanian, Moroccan, Tunisian, Qatari, Bahraini, Emirati, regimes have been
normalizing, and even the Saudis have been cooperating with the Israelis on
diplomatic and security matters. The Arab peoples generally have been opposing the
normalizing process, and the regimes have a difficulty in marketing what they have
been doing overtly or covertly over the years.
Obama just wants the Arab governments to follow the footsteps of the Palestinian
Authority which has been coordinating with the Israelis on security matters against
the Palestinian people. He wants the Arab governments to have the courage to be
frank and truthful to their own peoples, and tell them that there is no chance but to
accept Israel as a natural part of the Arab-Islamic area, and establish with her normal
relations.
IF Israel takes steps that might make the Arab regimes look as if they have been
achieving something for the Palestinians toward the establishment of a Palestinian
state, then these regimes will be able to openly argue in favor of normalization. So
what the American President is asking Israel to do is to concede a little bit for a little
while in return of something that Israel has been seeking to achieve over the years.
But Obama's major problem is that Israel is convinced that the Arabs finally concede
without taking anything in return. These Arabs, according to the Israeli assessment,
started with the rhetoric to erase Israel from the map, and ended now with the
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demand to halt settlement activities in the West Bank. So the whole Obama show is
meant to strengthen the Arab regimes' argument in favor of Israel.
Obstacles facing the Show
There are major obstacles that face Obama regarding this settlement issue which I
summarize in the following:
1- The present Israeli prime minister isn't going to yield because of internal
considerations. He has a coalition built on ideology, and any deviation might
topple the government.
2- Israel is strong enough in the US to face verbal pressures from the
administration. There are the Jewish and Zionist well organized lobbies, the
American Congress, and support of a good percentage of the American
people.
3- The Arab regimes don't dare to take overt steps toward normalization
because the whole area is witnessing the development of a new structure of
power with shifts in the balance of power. The Arab-Israeli-American unannounced alliance is facing a real challenge from the un-declared IranianSyrian-Hezbollah axis, and the Arab regimes are facing real and tangible
threats.
4- The Arabs aren't in a position to put pressure on the American administration
because of their dependency on the US, and even on Israel in some security
matters.
5- The Palestinians are so weak, and seemingly they have traded their national
rights with personal privileges such as high salaries and brand new cars. They
are incapable of embarrassing Obama or of mobilizing supporters in the US.
6- Obama will discover that the Arab regimes are just mere puppets who cannot
make initiatives, and they are just dictatorships who are very much hated by
their own peoples. These dictatorships are unstable, and they cannot survive
with applying ruthless measures against their own people.
Netanyahu Makes a Move
Netanyahu recognizes that he is a prime minister in a world of unfettered interaction
and mutual dependency. That is why he made a clever but deceptive move in
ratifying hundreds of new housing units with an ambiguous promise of temporarily
freezing the building of new settlements. So he gave permits for building the new
units that will be built at the time of the freeze.
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Israel froze building new units in the past for six months, but that didn't prevent
Israel from building new settlements or new houses. As long as the other side is
weak, and isn't up to the challenge, the Israeli policies will survive and nibble on the
land of the West Bank. And Obama's major problem is the weakness of the Arab
regimes not the stubbornness of the Israelis.
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