2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
V. C. BIRD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
AUGUST 08, 2009
NOAA and CSU have downgraded their forecasts… TRS has upgraded
Overview
Over the past week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric and Administration (NOAA), Colorado State University (CSU)
and Tropical Storm Risk Consortium (TSR) issued their latest forecasts for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Based on these
recent forecasts, there is a split decision as to what the rest of the season will be like. NOAA and CSU are predicting a
near to below normal season, while TRS is forecasting a near to above normal season. The reason for the downgraded
forecasts by NOAA and CSU is the development of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, TSR is expecting
August/September sea surface temperatures in the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean to be higher than previously expected,
hence, their upgrade. CSU acknowledges the increasing sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean; however, they
believe that El Nino will be the dominant factor resulting in suppressed tropical cyclone activity. In agreement with NOAA
and CSU, the Meteorological Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) is also forecasting a below normal North Atlantic Hurricane
Season (See table 1). Hence, by majority decision, a near to below normal season is forecast.
Forecast Source
NOAA
CSU
TSR
Forecast Date
August 8, 2009
May 21, 2009
August 1, 2009
June 2, 2009
April 7, 2009
August 4, 2009
June 4, 2009
April 7, 2008
June 18, 2009
Tropical Storms
7 - 11
9 – 14
10
11
12
12 - 13
11
15
6 (3 – 9)
Hurricanes
3-6
4–7
4
5
6
6–7
5-6
7- 8
-
Major Hurricanes
1- 2
1- 3
2
2
2
2-3
2-3
3-4
-
MOHC (range)
59-yr Antigua
1950 - 2008
0.6
0.4
0.2
Climatology1
59-yr Atlantic
1950 - 2008
10.8
6.2
2.7
Climatology
30-yr Atlantic
1979 - 2008
11.8
6.4
2.6
Climatology
Table 1: Comparison of 2009 Hurricane Season Forecasts. 1Storms passing within 105 nautical miles of Antigua.
Forecasts include those issued by Colorado State University (CSU), Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Meteorological Office Hadley Centre (MOHC). The MOHC forecast is issued
for the July–November period.
So far for the year, only two depressions have formed. The last time there were no storms in June and July was in 2000.
However, eventually, 15 named storms developed.
The 2008 Hurricane Season produced 16 named storms of which 8 became hurricane, including 5 major hurricanes. This
was consistent with the forecasts issued by all four organizations mentioned above. The science behind the outlook is
rooted in the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with
similar conditions.
Dale Destin
Climatologist Ag.
iweatherreport@gmail.com