Geophysical Research Letters
Supporting Information for
Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa
R. I. Maidment, R. P. Allan and E. C. L. Black
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK
Contents of this file
Figures S1 to S14
Tables S1 to S4
Introduction
The supporting information provides maps of:
i.
annual and seasonal rainfall climatologies from observations;
ii. seasonal spatial trends from observations;
iii. annual and seasonal spatial trends from individual AMIP5 model runs.
In addition, tabulated area average trend values and correlations between datasets for
different regions and seasons are included. These results were created during the
analysis presented in the article.
1
Figure S1. Annual rainfall climatology (1983-2010) for (a) CRU, (b) GPCC, (c)
PREC/L, (d) ARC, (e) CHIRPS, (f) CMAP, (g) GPCP and (h) TARCAT.
2
Figure S2. Same as Figure S1, but for December-February rainfall.
3
Figure S3. Same as Figure S1, but for March-May rainfall.
4
Figure S4. Same as Figure S1, but for June-August rainfall.
5
Figure S5. Same as Figure S1, but for September-November rainfall.
6
Figure S6. Spatial trends in December-February rainfall from 1983 to 2010 for (a)
CRU, (b) GPCC, (c) PREC/L, (d) ARC, (e) CHIRPS, (f) CMAP, (g) GPCP and (h)
TARCAT. Stippling represents statistically significant trends at the 95 % confidence
level using an F-Test.
7
Figure S7. Same as Figure S6, but for March-May rainfall.
8
Figure S8. Same as Figure S6, but for June-August rainfall.
9
Figure S9. Same as Figure S6, but for September-November rainfall.
10
Figure S10. Spatial trends in annual rainfall from 1983 to 2008 for individual AMIP5
models. Stippling represents statistically significant trends at the 95 % confidence
level using an F-Test.
11
Figure S11. Same as Figure S10, but for December-February rainfall.
12
Figure S12. Same as Figure S10, but for March-May rainfall.
13
Figure S13. Same as Figure S10, but for June-August rainfall.
14
Figure S14. Same as Figure S10, but for September-November rainfall.
15
Observations
Name
Inputs
CRU (v3.10)
GPCC (v6.0)
PREC/L (updated Jan. 2011)
ARC (v2.0)
CHIRPS (v2.0)
CMAP (v1201)
GPCP (v2.2)
TARCAT (v2.0)
Gauge
Gauge
Gauge
TIR, gauge
TIR, MW, gauge, model
TIR, MW, gauge
TIR, MW, gauge
TIR, gauge
Model
CanESM2
CNRM-CM5
GISS-E2-R
HadGEM2-ES
INMCM4
IPSL-CM5A-LR
MIROC5
MRI-CGCM3
NorESM1-M
Country
Canada
France
USA
UK
Russia
France
Japan
Japan
Norway
Spatial
res.
0.5˚
0.5˚
0.5˚
0.1˚
0.05˚
2.5˚
2.5˚
0.0375˚
CMIP5 models
Spatial res. (lon × lat)
2.81° × 2.77°
1.41° × 1.39°
2.5° × 2.0°
1.88° × 1.25°
2.0° × 1.5°
3.75° × 1.89°
1.41° × 1.39°
1.13° × 1.11°
2.5° × 1.89°
Temporal res.
Start year
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Daily
Daily
Monthly
Monthly
Dekadal
1901
1901
1948
1983
1981
1979
1979
1983
Reference
Arora et al. [2011]
Voldoire et al. [2012]
Schmidt et al. [2006]
Collins et al. [2011]
Volodin et al. [2010]
Dufresne et al. [2013]
Watanabe et al. [2010]
Yukimoto et al. [2012]
Zhang et al. [2012]
Table S1. Summary of observational datasets and CMIP5 models used in this study.
Region
Sahel
Central Africa
East Africa
Southern Africa
CRU
42.7
20.0
21.9
32.1
GPCC
30.7
-9.6
1.1
40.5
PREC/L
29.4
22.6
21.4
34.1
ARC2
29.2
-96.0
-35.8
37.8
CHIRPS
29.0
-0.2
-5.2
37.6
CMAP
20.6
-38.2
-32.8
12.3
GPCP
40.3
9.1
-23.2
39.7
TARCAT
38.2
38.6
23.7
36.6
Table S2. Linear trends in annual rainfall (mm year-1 per decade) using land-only values
from 1983 to 2010 for Africa sub-regions. Values in bold denote statistically significant
trends (p < 0.05) using an F-test.
16
Season
Annual
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
Observations
CRU
GPCP
TARCAT
CRU
GPCP
TARCAT
CRU
GPCP
TARCAT
CRU
GPCP
TARCAT
CRU
GPCP
TARCAT
AMIP5
ensemble
mean
0.49
0.55
0.66
0.31
0.34
0.56
0.53
0.36
0.19
0.65
0.60
0.74
0.55
0.48
0.57
Table S3. Pattern correlations between the annual and seasonal rainfall spatial trends
(as displayed in Fig. 2) between the model ensemble means and observations
Area
Africa
Sahel
Central
Africa
East Africa
Southern
Africa
Observation
CRU
GPCP
TARCAT
CRU
GPCP
TARCAT
CRU
GPCP
TARCAT
CRU
GPCP
TARCAT
CRU
GPCP
TARCAT
Monthly
0.28
0.26
0.30
0.34
0.34
0.41
0.01
0.01
0.06
0.45
0.41
0.38
0.31
0.29
0.21
DJF
0.52
0.46
0.23
-0.26
0.13
0.36
0.27
0.26
-0.13
0.51
0.51
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.51
MAM
-0.12
-0.16
-0.13
0.27
0.21
0.21
-0.28
-0.43
-0.17
0.29
0.26
0.13
0.32
0.32
0.11
JJA
0.48
0.45
0.55
0.37
0.39
0.42
0.38
0.12
0.25
0.57
0.58
0.51
0.01
0.02
-0.20
SON
0.31
0.44
0.64
0.38
0.28
0.47
-0.07
0.22
0.63
0.63
0.45
0.52
-0.05
-0.01
-0.32
Table S4. Correlations in monthly and seasonal precipitation anomalies (1983-2008)
between AMIP5 ensemble mean and selected observations for all Africa and subregions. Values in bold denote statistically significant positive correlations at the 95%
confidence level using a two-sided Student’s t-test.
17