PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS
Possible uses for this information will include:
 Providing useful information to self-learners;
 Providing focus for the developers of short courses, text books and other learning
material;
 Providing a basis for the production of self-test quizzes and examinations;
 Providing the basis for registers of suitably qualified and experienced persons.
Recommended Competences
Category
&
Code Number
Pre-Requisites
PROBpr1
PROBpr2
Knowledge
STATEMENT OF COMPETENCE
Appropriate levels of Maths (including Statistics)
and Physics.
Statements of competence in category FEA, and/or
CFD and/or other relevant modules as
appropriate to application and level.
Standard
or
Advanced
and
EQF Level
Resource
Reference
Code
When writing a statement of competence in this category, use the verbs .... state, sketch, list,
define, or similar.
List typical sources of uncertainty in a reliability
PROBkn1
S,7
PROBref1
assessment
List typical probability density functions.
PROBkn2
A,7
PROBref2
List the characteristics of a typical probability
PROBkn3
S,7
PROBref3
distribution
List the principal moments of random variables
PROBkn4
A,7
PROBref4
List typical random sampling techniques.
PROBkn5
A,7
PROBref5
List the principal deterministic performance
PROBkn6
A,7
PROBref6
measures
List the principal reliability analysis methods
PROBkn7
S,7
PROBref7
List types of uncertainty
PROBkn8
S,6
PROBref8
List major differences when considering the
PROBkn9
reliability of electronic/electrical systems and
A,6
PROBref9
mechanical/structural systems
PROBkn10
List the benefits from probabilistic finite element
S,7
PROBref10
analysis.
Comprehension
When writing a statement of competence in this category, use the verbs .... describe, explain,
classify, review or similar.
Explain the term non-deterministic.
PROBco1
S,7
PROBref11
Describe the difference between epistemic and
PROBco2
aleatoric uncertainty and how they can be
S,6
PROBref12
quantified
Explain the term reliability, probability, notional
PROBco3
S,7
PROBref13
probability.
Explain the terms stochastic process and
PROBco4
A,7
PROBref14
probabilistic or stationary process.
PROBco5
PROBco6
PROBco7
PROBco8
PROBco9
PROBco10
PROBco11
PROBco12
PROBco13
PROBco14
PROBco15
PROBco16
PROBco17
PROBco18
PROBco19
PROBco20
PROBco21
PROBco22
Explain the terms mean, standard deviation and
coefficient of variation.
Describe the role of factors of safety and partial
design factors in design procedures and codes of
practice, including the role of statistical
confidence levels.
Describe how variability in an analysis input quantity
may be characterised.
Explain how probabilistic sensitivities can be used
to guide product design.
Explain the relationship between the Normal
Probability Density Function and the Cumulative
Density Function.
Explain the term probability of failure.
Describe Monte Carlo simulation.
Describe the main issues in interfacing standard
analysis software with probabilistic shells.
Explain the term risk
Explain the term correlation
Describe the First Order Reliability Method (FORM)
Explain the term checking point
Explain the term limit state function
Describe what is meant by Nominal failure
probability
Describe what is meant by failure
Describe Importance sampling
Describe the Hasofer-Lind transformation
Explain the term safety index
S,6
PROBref15
S,7
PROBref16
S,7
PROBref17
A,7
PROBref18
A,7
PROBref19
S,6
A,7
PROBref20
PROBref21
A,7
PROBref22
S,6
S,6
A,7
S,6
S,6
PROBref23
PROBref24
PROBref25
PROBref26
PROBref27
S,6
PROBref28
S,6
A,7
A,7
S,6
PROBref29
PROBref30
PROBref31
PROBref32
PROBco23
Describe basic approaches to structural reliability
assessment
A,7
PROBref33
Application
When writing a statement of competence in this category, use the verbs .... employ, demonstrate,
conduct, use, apply, solve, utilise or similar.
PROBap1
Employ available software tools to carry out
S,7
PROBref34
deterministic analysis studies in areas of interest.
PROBap2
Employ available software tools to carry out
probabilistic studies and semi-probabilistic
A,7
PROBref35
(partial factor) design studies.
PROBap3
Conduct sensitivity studies to inform probabilistic
S,7
PROBref36
studies.
PROBap4
Utilise appropriate and efficient probabilistic
S,7
PROBref37
methods, where a choice is given.
PROBap5
Employ appropriate techniques to gather suitable
A,7
PROBref38
statistical information
Analysis
When writing a statement of competence in this category, use the verbs .... analyse, calculate,
determine, appraise or similar.
PROBan1
Analyse the results from probabilistic studies and
S,7
PROBref39
draw conclusions.
Determine probabilistic sensitivities.
PROBan2
A,7
PROBref40
Calculate the probability of failure.
PROBan3
S,6
PROBref41
PROBan4
Using FEA and FORM/SORM design and a column
A,7
PROBref42
with reliability of 0.99 against Euler Buckling
Synthesis
When writing a statement of competence in this category, use the verbs .... construct, plan,
formulate, prepare or similar.
PROBsy1
Plan effective analysis strategies for probabilistic
A,7
PROBref43
PROBsy2
PROBsy3
studies.
Formulate a series of simple benchmarks in support
of a probabilistic study.
Apply FEA and probabilistic methods to obtain the
probability of failure of a complex structure
including series and parallel systems of
components.
A,7
PROBref44
A,7
PROBref45
Evaluation
When writing a statement of competence in this category, use the verbs .... assess, justify, select,
evaluate or similar.
Justify the appropriateness of random variables and
PROBev1
failure modes selected for use in a probabilistic
A,7
PROBref46
study.
PROBev2
Select suitable idealisations for probabilistic studies.
A,7
PROBref47
PROBev3
Provide effective specialist advice on probabilistic
methods and non-deterministic design to
A,7
PROBref48
colleagues.
PROBev4
Assess hardware and software solutions to meet
A,7
PROBref49
the needs of planned probabilistic studies.
REFERENCES:
PROBref1
Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 2.2, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
Guidelines for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis, DNV Research Report 95-2018, 1996.
Computational Analysis of Randomness in Structural Mechanics, Bucher, C., ISBN: 0-415-40354-5 ,
CRC Press, 2009.
PROBref2
Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section A.5, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref3
Reliability-based Structural Design, Section2.1, Choi S. et al, ISBN-10: 1-84628-444-9, Springer, 2007.
PROBref4
Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section A.4, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref5
Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 3.3, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref6
Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 1.2, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref7
Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 1.4, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref8
Reliability-based Design, Chapter 4.5, Rao, S.S., ISBN 0-07051-192-6, McGraw-Hill, 1992.
PROBref9
Reliability-based Design, Chapter 8.1, Rao, S.S., ISBN 0-07051-192-6, McGraw-Hill, 1992.
PROBref10 Why Do Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis, Section 2.3, Thacker B.H., NAFEMS, 2008.
PROBref11 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 1.1, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref12 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 2.2.1, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref13 Reliability-based Structural Design, Section1.3, Choi S. et al, ISBN-10: 1-84628-444-9, Springer, 2007.
Probabilistic Methods: Uses and Abuses in Structural Integrity, HSE Research Report 398/2001.
PROBref14 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 6.4, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref15 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section A.4, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref16 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 1.2, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Chapter 9, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref17 Why Do Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis, Section 2.1, Thacker B.H., NAFEMS, 2008.
PROBref18 Reliability-based Structural Design, Section 4.1, Choi S. et al, ISBN-10: 1-84628-444-9, Springer, 2007.
PROBref19 Why Do Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis, Section 3.1, Thacker B.H., NAFEMS, 2008.
PROBref20 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 1.4.2, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref21 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 3.3, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref22 Why Do Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis, Section 3.5, Thacker B.H., NAFEMS, 2008.
PROBref23 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 2.1, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref24 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 1.5.1, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref25 Reliability-based Structural Design, Section 4.1, Choi S. et al, ISBN-10: 1-84628-444-9, Springer, 2007.
Probabilistic Methods: Uses and Abuses in Structural Integrity, HSE Research Report 398/2001.
PROBref26 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 4.3.2, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref27 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 1.5.2, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref28 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 2.5, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref29 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 2.1, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref30 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 3.4, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref31 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 4.3.1, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref32 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 4.2, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref33 Simulation-Based Reliability Assessment for Structural Engineers, Chapter 1, Marek P. et al,
ISBN: 0-849-3828-66 CRC Press, 1996.
PROBref34 System User Manuals and suitable experiential learning, preferably in an industrial context and
environment.
Principles of Simulation-Based Computer-Aided Engineering, Marczyk J., FIM Publications,
Artes Graficas Torres, 1999.
Reliability Assessment Using Stochastic Finite Element Analysis, Halder A., Mahadevan S.,
ISBN: 0-471-36961-6, Wiley, 2000.
PROBref35 System User Manuals and suitable experiential learning, preferably in an industrial context and
environment.
Simulation-Based Reliability Assessment for Structural Engineers, Chapter 12, Marek P. et al,
ISBN: 0-849-3828-66 CRC Press, 1996.
PROBref36 System User Manuals and suitable experiential learning, preferably in an industrial context and
environment.
PROBref37 System User Manuals and suitable experiential learning, preferably in an industrial context and
environment.
PROBref38 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Chapter 8., Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
PROBref39 Reliability-based Structural Design, Section 4.3, Choi S. et al, ISBN-10: 1-84628-444-9, Springer, 2007.
Why Do Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis, Section 4, Thacker B.H., NAFEMS, 2008.
PROBref40 Reliability-based Structural Design, Section 4.1, Choi S. et al, ISBN-10: 1-84628-444-9, Springer, 2007.
PROBref41 System User Manuals and suitable experiential learning, preferably in an industrial context and
environment.
Reliability-based Structural Design, Section 4.1, Choi S. et al, ISBN-10: 1-84628-444-9, Springer, 2007.
PROBref42 Reliability-based Design, Chapter 9.2, Rao, S.S., ISBN 0-07051-192-6, McGraw-Hill, 1992.
PROBref43 System Theoretical, Application and User Manuals
NAFEMS QSS 001:2007 : Engineering Simulation – Quality Management Systems – Requirements, 1st
Edition, NAFEMS Ltd. 2007.
Quality Management in Engineering Simulation, A Primer for the NAFEMS QSS, J M Smith, NAFEMS Ltd,
2008.
PROBref44 Reliability-based Structural Design, Section 4.3, Choi S. et al, ISBN-10: 1-84628-444-9, Springer, 2007.
PROBref45 Probabilistic and Deterministic Assessment for Safety – Case of a Shiplift Structure, Prinja N.K., Paper
C535/008/98, IMechE Conf. Trans., 1998.
Why Do Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis, Section 3.5, Thacker B.H., NAFEMS, 2008.
PROBref46 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 8.5, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
Reliability-based Structural Design, Section 2.2, Choi S. et al, ISBN-10: 1-84628-444-9, Springer, 2007.
System User Manuals and suitable experiential learning, preferably in an industrial context and environment.
PROBref47 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 2.3, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
Reliability-based Structural Design, Section 4.3, Choi S. et al, ISBN-10: 1-84628-444-9, Springer, 2007.
System User Manuals and suitable experiential learning, preferably in an industrial context and environment.
PROBref48 Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 1.4, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
Reliability-based Structural Design, Chapter 3, Choi S. et al, ISBN-10: 1-84628-444-9, Springer, 2007.
Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 9.4, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Section 9.8, Melchers R.E., ISBN: 0-471-98771-9, Wiley, 1999.
System User Manuals and suitable experiential learning, preferably in an industrial context and environment.
PROBref49 Why Do Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis, Section 3.5, Thacker B.H., NAFEMS, 2008.
System User Manuals and suitable experiential learning, preferably in an industrial context and environment.