Annual Progress Report
CLEO 2011
Project
Project 2.1 Climate and impact on terrestrial loadings to aquatic systems in the forest
landscape: The empirical basis for process-based models
Project leader :
Kevin Bishop, SLU Vatten och miljö, kevin.bishop@slu.se
General Objective:
This project will use observational records of water chemistry and related variables
(climate, land-use) from the last 30 years to define how climate change and land use
influence water quality. This will be done at two scales, one is monthly at the scale of ca
25 km2, corresponding to that of the 17000 SMHI Subcatchments. There are over 200,
multi-decadal long time-series. The basic data themselves will serve as calibration data
for other models in Cluster 3. Sub project 2.1.1 will also use these data to make an
empirical model of how climate/land cover change will influence leaching of C, N, BC and
ANC from the forest landscape. The empirical model is based on the assumption that the
future behaves as the past.
The second scale that the project will explore is more highly resolved spatial and temporal
scales than monthly/25 km2. Over 90% of the stream length in Sweden, and much of the
most sensitive aquatic environments are found in catchments under 25 km2. Existing data
will be used to define the range of spatial and temporal variability down to daily values at
200 ha, as well as its connection to weather factors and land cover. An important part of
this project will be creating methods to use the available data as effectively as possible.
This includes relationships to downstream sites where the sampling is more
comprehensive (Temnerud et al., 2009).
Short description of activities 2011:
The work with the empirical data has progressed from the 2010 focus on compiling and delivering
data to analysis and modelling of the results. The statistical analysis of the existing data is focusing
on the water quality of Hydrometeorological extreme years. This is being conducted in cooperation
with the models of Project 2.2 to compare observed and modelled sensitivity to flow and
temperature. The empirical modelling of 25 years of national monitoring data from across Sweden
is being done as planned using the US Geological Survey’s Fluxmaster program. This model has
been implemented and the first dozen of some 200 sites have been modelled. After the steep
learning curve of getting the modelling going on the Swedish data, the rest of the sites will be done
quickly. Then begins the interesting part of comparing flow and temperature sensitivity in water
quality across Sweden.
Deliverables 2011
D2.1.4 Times series of existing water chemistry at greater spatial and temporal resolution
Month 12. Delivered
D2.1.7 MeHg - compilation of existing data sets from the forest landscape
Month 12
Data SLU’s has collected has been compiled in a form available for incorporation to the
Metadatabase.
Deliverables 2012
D2.1.2 Empirical model of climate/land use influence on water quality for 200 water courses
Month 24
D2.1.3 Empirical model of climate/land use influence on water quality for the 17000 SMHI subcatchment scale
Month 36
D2.1.5 Initial prediction of high resolution variability of water quality in space and time in relation to
climate Month 24
D2.1.6 Updated and completed prediction of high resolution variability of water quality in space
and time in relation to climate
Month 36
D2.1.8 MeHg Compliation of new data collected in the project
Month 30
D2.1.9 Report on clmate/weather influence on MeHg in the Forest landscape
Additional staff involved in project:
Johan Temnerud, Julia Hytteborn (Uppsalal University Doktorand)
Month 36
Co-operation outside CLEO:
Future Forests
SLU FOMA Försurning
Uppsala University Ph.D. Student
Reports and publications:
Erlandsson, M., N. Cory, J. Folster, S. Kohler, H. Laudon, G. A. Weyhenmeyer, and K. Bishop
(2011), Increasing Dissolved Organic Carbon Redefines the Extent of Surface Water
Acidification and Helps Resolve a Classic Controversy, Bioscience, 61(8), 614-618.
Oral presentations:
K. Bishop - Invited Speaker and Organizer of Special Session on Forestry and Mercury at the 11
International Conference on Mercury as a Global Pollutant, Halifax Canada, July 2011.