Climate change: all that is solid melts
into water
Researchers have made a startling discovery: the summer Arctic could be an open sea
within a decade.
This is an edited version of an editorial that appeared in The Guardian on Sunday, September 16, 2012.
Sometimes, the future arrives with alarming speed. In the 1990s, and again in the 2000, climate scientists
warned that - unless urgent action was taken - the Arctic Ocean could be clear blue water during the summer
months by 2050. This August, researchers from the European Space Agency received data that suggests the
loss of sea ice (which is measured by depth and area) was more dramatic than previous predictions. This data
shows the summer Arctic could be an open sea within 10 years.
It is the ice in the Arctic that keeps it cold. Sunlight hits the white ice and bounces back into space. Ocean
water absorbs the light and warmth from the sun. A warmer ocean could make the following winter's ice pack
tinner and not as strong. The difference between the warm tropical waters and icy Arctic controls the weather
patterns in the northern hemisphere. The frozen ocean and frozen ground around the ocean prevents
underground methane from escaping into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas, meaning it traps heat
against the Earth's surface. An increase in methane in the atmosphere could increase the rate of global
warming. The polar seas also drive the marine ecosystem and fuel the north Atlantic fish stocks. The human
seafood supply depends greatly on these stocks. This would result in a food shortage for much of North
America, Europe, and Asia. The losses are considerable, and there have been no conversations between
governments or politicians to prevent them.
This bad news from the north has just been matched by a warning from the tropics. German, U.S.,
and Australian scientists report in Nature Climate Change on Monday that the double problem of increasing
greenhouse gases and rising ocean acidity could lead to the extinction of the world's coral reefs. These
extraordinary and beautiful structures flourish at the limits of their tolerance. They like it hot, but not too
hot. They die if the temperature is too warm: during 1998, 16% of all living corals perished in one extremely
hot tropical summer. Coral reefs provide coastal protection, tourism and fishing for millions: the reefs are
home, habitat, and hunting territory for a quarter of all marine species. Researchers used 19 different climate
models to predict the effects of a 2 degree Celsius (4 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in global average
temperatures. They found that by 2030 around 70% of the reefs would be completely destroyed.
In fact, pessimists in the climate change community warn that within the next century average global
temperatures could rise by 6 degrees Celsius (11 degrees Fahrenheit). The summer of 2012 has not been kind
to the U.S. 170 all-time heat records were broken in June alone. A severe, sustained drought has already hurt
the world food stocks. The global response to these signals of potential disaster has so far been weak. Britain
(the "greenest government ever") has recently appointed a climate change skeptic as their environment
secretary and the head of the National Health Service does not believe in modern medicine. The outlook on
dear planet Earth is not promising.