PharMed
Proposal
Revision 1.0
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1. Overview
This project’s name is PharMed. As the healthcare industry changes over the next decade and beyond, the
information needed by medical industry decision makers is crucial, especially as it relates to the availability
and price of pharmaceuticals. The goal of our project is to build a predictable model that can be utilized by
upper management in a pharmaceutical market research firm to forecast sales of syndicated market research
reports. Typically the market research firm will be required to bundle information about different
pharmaceuticals into a report the price of which depends on the number of drugs included in the report.
Our project will predict which combinations of pharmaceuticals will produce the most profitable reports
each year for a 12-year period.
To achieve our goal, we will utilize an existing and stimulus model that forecasts drug market size and
growth across several key therapeutic areas. We will also analyze and implement other key inputs in the
market place that are known indicators of potential increases in a pharmaceutical company’s spending.
Some of these variables include but are not limited to growth in disease prevalence, incidence, licensing,
FDA approvals and the like. Using this existing forecast will also provide us with several key inputs such
as drug revenue by year forecasted out over a twelve year continuum. These variables are important to our
project in as much as they allow us to simulate real life scenarios for which our model will be used for.
We will initiate our task by choosing one drug in a growth market and using that as an analogue to create
the model. We will aim to use each of the key functions learned in class during our production process.
Once all of the appropriate indicators have been identified and included, we will begin to test the models
reliability.
Our goal is to create model that we can use in our current capacity to effectively target and market product
based on our forecast.
2. Budget
Planning- 10.5 Hours
1. Defining the problem- 5 hours
2. Delegation of tasks- 1.5 hours
3. Schedule- 4 hours
Modeling- 36 hours
Documents- 22 Hours
1. Midpoint Status Report- 5 hours
2. Final Report- 8 hours
3. User guide- 5 hours
4. Reference Guide- 4 hours
Execution- 9 Hours
1. Scenario 1 Test and analysis- 3 hours
2. Scenario 2 test and analysis- 3 hours
3. Final Analysis of test scenarios- 3 hours (see Final Report)
3. Team
Xxxx and Yyyy will be working on this project as a dyad team. All project tasks will be addressed
concomitantly by Xxxx and Yyyy.
4. Inputs, Parameters, and Outputs
PharMed
Proposal
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Inputs:
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Disease population by year from present (2010)- 2022
Number of drugs currently in the pipeline for X disease with their corresponding
launch dates
Number of drugs currently marketed for X disease with their patent expiry dates
Number of scheduled reports to publish in X disease space
Annual pharma company revenue 2010-2022
Dynamic Variables:
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Disease population by year from present (2010)- 2022
Number of drugs currently in the pipeline for X disease with their corresponding
launch dates
Number of drugs currently marketed for X disease with their patent expiry dates
Number of scheduled reports to publish in X disease space
Annual pharma company revenue 2010-2022
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Sales of reports
Revenue associated with sales
Cost of generating revenue (cost per report factor)
Net revenue number
Outputs:
5. Schedule and Milestones
1. Define problem: 07 October 2010
 Create a clear definition of the problem that we are trying to tackle
 Research to determine the unmet need surrounding the problem
 Evaluate the stimulus model to gauge feasibility of integration
 Create a checklist to guide the activity for the project
 Develop a proposal so submit for evaluation
Milestone: Project is launched and off the ground
Submit: Final checklist of course project and Draft Proposal for course project
2. Launch Development of the model: 09 October 2010
 Begin developing individual modules within the model
 Start with one drug and test forecast integration
 Model in several other drugs to gauge company spending pattern and their effect
on model predictability
Milestone: Rough version of a scaled down model
Submit: Nothing due
3. Scenario development: 14 October 2010
 Research four distinct scenarios for which the model could add value to the
planning process
 Test each one of the scenarios to determine level of predictability
 Once tested, determine which two scenarios we want to pursue and prepare for
final submission.
Milestone: Tested model across four scenarios
Submit: Nothing due
4. Functional model: 23 October 2010
 Must have successfully tested the model across multiple scenarios
PharMed
Proposal
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 Must have begun to integrate model with stimulus model
Milestone: Must have rough format of user guide and reference guide
Submit: Nothing to submit
5. User Guide and Reference Guide: 28 October 2010
Milestones: Model now moving into final revisions
User Guide in near final format
Reference Guide in near final format
Submit: Status report and Requirement for Excel checklist
6. Final Submission: 16 December 2010
 Must have revised and corrected and errors in the model itself to ensure it is
dynamic and predictable
 Must have Final draft of User Guide prepared to submit
 Must have Reference guide and final report ready to submit
Milestone: A grade Project successfully completed
Submit: Final report, reference guide, user guide, two scenarios of the model