AUSTRALIA, US AND CHINA TARGETS, HISTORICAL AND BUSINESS AS USUAL PROJECTED EMISSIONS
Australia, United States and China 2020 emission reduction targets
Country
Australia
United States
China
2020 Target
5 per cent below 2000
17 per cent below 2005
Carbon dioxide intensity target of
40-45 per cent below 2005
2020 Target emissions
absolute (Mt CO2-e)
555i
5144
2020 target from a
1990 base
2000 base
2005 base
-4 per cent
-5 per cent
-12 per cent
-5 per cent
-20 per cent
-17 per cent
Historical emissions, 2020 target for Australia and United States and Business as Usual (BAU) Projections for China (Mt CO2-e)ii
Country
1990
2000
2005
2010
Australia
United Statesiv
580
5,389
586
6,395
635
6,197
590
5,923
Chinav
3,356
4,754
7,337
9,769
iii
Australia and United States 2020 target on 1990 levels and China emission
projections
2020
555 (target)
5,144 (target)
12,400-14,000
(indicative
projection)
2030
11,600 – 16,600
(indicative
projection)
Historical and projected emissions, Australia, US and China
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AUSTRALIA, US AND CHINA TARGETS, HISTORICAL AND BUSINESS AS USUAL PROJECTED EMISSIONS
Notes: Projections for China as displayed are formed from the 2014 International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Technology Perspectives Data Visualisation Tool and the 2012 US EPA non-CO2
anthropogenic modelling. CO2 projections for China are presented as a range between a two degree and six degree scenario and assume no policy change or take-up of new technologies.
Non-CO2 projections for China include methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated greenhouse gases (hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride) and reflect the currently
achieved impact of sector-specific climate policy programs, agreements, and measures that are already in place, but exclude GHG reductions due to additional planned activities and
economy-wide programs whose impacts on individual sectors are less certain.i
i
The minus five per cent target is as per Australia’s Abatement Task and 2013 Emissions Projections.
Chinese projected emissions are provided through modelling of the International Energy Agency and US Environment Protection Authority - it includes both carbon dioxide and non-carbon
dioxide gases.
iii
With the exception of Australia (AR4) all numbers provided have been calculated using Second Assessment Report (AR2) Global Warming Potentials provided by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Care should be taken where comparison is made. Numbers are provided in megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2-e). China projections take into
account the policies within the Twelfth Five Year Plan. Due to differences in country emissions accounting the historical, projected and percentage change values cannot be directly
compared between countries. Values are not reflective of progress towards national targets.
iV
The Australia (AR4) series was calculated using the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Global Warming Potentials. These values have been publicly released within Australia’s 2013
Projections. These values are not directly comparable to the US and China which use a different global warming potential. This series includes total net emissions from Land Use, Land Use
Change and Forestry (LULUCF).
V
United States historical emission values include total net emissions from LULUCF and can be sourced from the United States 2013 first Biennial Report available at unfccc.int United States
projections are available from the United States 2013 first Biennial Report available at unfccc.int and include a low sequestration assumption for forestry and land sinks.
vi
Historical emissions for China exclude LULUCF and are sourced from the World Resource Institute CAIT 2 model and are based upon data provided by the US Department of Energy, US
Environment Protection Authority and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Projections for China as displayed within the Chart are formed from the 2014
International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Technology Perspectives Data Visualisation Tool and the 2012 US EPA non-CO2 anthropogenic modelling. CO2 projections for China are presented
as a range between a two degree and six degree scenario and assume no policy change or take-up of new technologies. Non-CO2 projections for China include methane, nitrous oxide, and
fluorinated greenhouse gases (hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride) and reflect the currently achieved impact of sector-specific climate policy programs,
agreements, and measures that are already in place, but exclude greenhouse gas reductions due to additional planned activities and economy-wide programs whose impacts on individual
sectors are less certain.
vii
The Chinese Government does not release official projection estimates, these are the projections provided through the modelling of the International Energy Agency and US Environment
Protection Authority, it includes both carbon dioxide and non-carbon dioxide gases.
viii Due to differences the percentage change in emissions from 1990-2020 is not reflective of progress towards the national targets set down by Australia, the US and China.
ii
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