MORNING RICE COMMENTS
Jack Scoville
Tuesday, February 09, 2016
Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com
Futures Prices Yesterday
January
1504
High
1492
Low
1487
Close
-13
Change
March
1526
1511
1511
-12.5
JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador
(503) 2260-7806
jslsadecv@comcast.net
May
1556
1542.5
1542
-12.5
July
1568
1568
1565.5
-16.5
JSL, SA
San José, Costa Rica
(506) 2282-7024
jslsa@comcast.net
September
1566
1543
1540.5
-19
November
1541.5
-19
Trade Ideas:
General Comments: Prices closed lower yesterday in reaction to a disappointing week of export sales and in preparation for the
USDA reports today. The reports will be released at 11:00 AM Chicago time. Nothing has really changed on the charts or in the
news for Rice at this time. Charts show that trends are mixed for the short term. Ideas are that the market is getting oversold after the
big down moves of the last few sessions. Domestic cash markets are called slow, but with a steady to firm tone. The export sales
report once again showed good demand, but less than what has been seen in recent weeks. The export pace has been strong for several
weeks now, and more strong business is expected in the short term. The market is still finding little selling interest from producers,
and cash prices continue to firm. Very little Rice is left in producer hands in Texas,
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1510, 1504, and 1490 March, with resistance at 1526, 1534, and 1540 March.
Delta Weather Forecast: Rain from west to east today. Dry again over the weekend. Temperatures will average above normal
today and tomorrow, then below normal.
Long Grain Paddy Flat Price and Basis Levels, in Hundredweight Unless Otherwise Indicated:
Spot
Basis
July
Basis
Aug
Basis
Sep
Basis
State
Arkansas
0
0
0
0
Jonesboro
Corning
Stuttgart
Dumas
Waldenburg
Mississippi
Miss. River
-0
-0
-0
0
Louisiana
-0
-0
-0
0
Texas
-0
-0
-0
0
0
0
0
0
California
FOB Gulf
Paddy
News Items:
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals - Jan 11
Source: CME Group
Contract
Quantity
Commodity
Month
Delivery Day
Assigned Today
SOYBEAN MEAL
January
Jan. 14, 2013
5
SOYBEAN OIL
January
Jan. 14, 2013
517
ROUGH RICE
January
Jan. 14, 2013
1
Next Trade
Date Available
Dec 14, 2012
Jan 09, 2013
Dec 31, 2012
DJ China Zhengzhou Rice Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Product Settle PrevSettle Change
Open
High
Low Volume
ER301
2,593
2,593
0
0
0
0
0
ER303
2,665
2,665
0
0
0
0
0
ER305
2,707
2,708
-1 2,710 2,712 2,704
6,638
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Change is the day's settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Open Int
2,154
18
72,040
DJ SURVEY: Forecasts For US Dec 1 Grain Stocks Report
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for U.S. grain
and soybean stocks as of Dec. 1, 2012, as compiled by Dow Jones. The U.S. Department of Agriculture
is scheduled to release its report at 12:00 p.m. EST (1800 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the
number of estimates in that average and range.
2012 Sept.1 2011 Dec.1
USDA
USDA
Average
Range
Stocks
Stocks
Corn (16)
8.210
8.050-8.450 0.988
9.647
Soybeans (16)
1.984
1.915-2.056 0.169
2.370
Wheat (15)
1.674
1.553-1.721 2.104
1.663
Corn
Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro
8.450 1.993
1.705
ADM Investor Services
8.172 1.932
1.716
AgriSource
8.125 1.980
1.620
Agrivisor
8.395 1.955
1.655
Allendale
8.050 1.942
1.682
Doane Advisory Srv
8.259 1.959
1.685
Futures International
8.290 1.987
1.704
Jefferies Bache
8.353 2.002
1.643
Kropf/Love Consulting
8.207 1.994
1.667
Linn Group
8.105 2.017
1.553
Newedge USA
8.126 2.009
1.696
Prime Ag
8.100 2.000
1.700
Rice Dairy
8.228 1.915
1.671
RJ O'Brien
8.248 1.996
1.721
U.S. Commodities
8.120 2.005
n/a
Water Street Solutions
8.130 2.056
1.696
DJ SURVEY: Annual US Corn, Soybean Production And Yield
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2012-13
U.S. soybean and corn production, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its Annual Production report at 12:00
p.m. EST (1800 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
Dec
2011
Average
Range
USDA
Output
Corn (22)
10.626
10.100-10.801 10.725 12.358
Soybeans (22)
2.999
2.922-3.104
2.971
3.094
YIELD:
Corn (22)
122.4
121.0-123.4
122.3
147.2
Soybeans (22)
39.6
38.6-41.0
39.3
41.9
Corn
Soybeans
Crop
Yield Crop Yield
ABN Amro
10.675 122.0 3.028 40.0
ADM Investor Services
10.578 123.0 2.971 39.3
AgriSource
10.650 122.1 2.990 39.5
Agrivisor
10.684 122.8 2.944 38.9
Allendale
10.618 123.2 2.978 39.4
Alpari
Citigroup
Doane Advisory Srvcs
Farm Futures
Futures International
Global Comm Analytics
*Informa
Jefferies Bache
Kropf and Love
Linn Group
Newedge USA
Prime Ag Consultants
R.J. O'Brien
Rice Dairy
Risk Management Comm
US Commodities
Water Street Solutions
*From traders
10.500
10.681
10.755
10.617
10.685
10.701
10.801
10.749
10.675
10.492
10.704
10.614
10.760
10.665
10.100
10.736
10.325
122.0
121.8
122.6
121.3
122.1
123.0
123.3
123.0
122.0
122.0
122.3
122.0
123.4
122.4
121.0
122.7
122.1
3.100
2.970
2.990
2.969
2.963
2.969
3.036
3.025
2.990
2.983
3.016
3.104
2.986
2.951
2.922
3.100
2.996
39.5
39.4
39.5
39.6
39.3
39.8
40.1
40.0
39.5
39.3
39.9
41.0
39.4
39.0
38.6
39.7
39.6
DJ SURVEY: January US Grain, Soybean Carryout
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2012-13
U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables at
12:00 p.m. EST (1800 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and
range.
Dec
2012-13 2011-12
Average
Range
USDA
USDA
Corn (21)
0.667
0.489-0.764 0.647
0.988
Soybeans (21)
0.135
0.107-0.178 0.130
0.169
Wheat (19)
0.743
0.637-0.792 0.754
0.743
Corn
Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro
0.697 0.130
0.779
ADM Investor Services
0.600 0.150
0.750
AgriSource
0.660 0.135
0.735
Agrivisor
0.656 0.130
0.704
Allendale
0.760 0.141
0.754
Alpari
0.550 0.130
0.770
Citigroup
0.649 0.130
0.750
Doane Advisory Srvcs
0.676 0.150
0.737
Futures International
0.648 0.133
0.732
Global Comm Analytics
0.764 0.107
0.706
Jefferies Bache
0.720 0.150
0.759
Kropf and Love
0.647 0.140
0.754
Linn Group
0.755 0.114
0.637
Midco
0.700 0.130
0.750
Newedge USA
0.647 0.140
0.769
Prime Ag Consultants
0.635 0.178
0.754
Rice Dairy
0.616 0.120
0.752
Risk Management Commodities
0.750 0.131
n/a
RJ O'Brien
0.715 0.126
0.792
US Commodities
0.682 0.150
n/a
Water Street Solutions
0.489 0.125
0.729
DJ SURVEY: USDA 2013-14 US Winter Wheat Seedings Report
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following are analysts' estimates in millions of acres for 2013-14 U.S.
winter wheat seedings, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is
scheduled to release its report at 12:00 p.m. EST (1800 GMT) Friday, Jan. 11. Parentheses denote
the number of estimates in that average and range.
Average
Range
2012 Seedings
All Winter Wheat (15)
42.6
41.7-44.7 41.3
Hard Red Winter (14)
30.3
29.9-31.0 29.9
Soft Red Winter (14)
8.9
8.2-10.0
8.1
White Winter (14)
3.5
3.3-3.9
3.3
All
Hard Soft
Winter Red
Red White
ABN Amro
43.1
30.0 9.7 3.4
ADM Investor Services
42.3
30.0 8.9 3.4
Agrivisor
44.7
31.0 10.0 3.7
Allendale
43.4
30.3 9.6 3.5
Doane Advisory Service
Farm Futures
Futures International
Global Commod Analytics
Jefferies Bache
Kropf & Love Consulting
Linn Group
Newedge USA LLC
Rice Dairy
R.J. O'Brien
Water Street Solutions
43.1
42.1
41.7
42.8
42.3
42.3
42.8
42.0
42.6
42.0
42.3
30.2
n/a
29.9
30.5
30.7
30.4
30.0
29.9
30.4
30.2
30.8
8.98
n/a
8.4
9.0
8.2
8.6
9.4
8.8
8.8
8.3
8.2
3.9
n/a
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.3
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this
report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed
as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.
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