November 22, 2013
Runner Head: Term Paper
Term Paper
Constance McCarty
Student
Salt Lake Community College
GEOG 1700
12/02/13
Action Research
Tropical Cyclone Phailin
Report
On October 4, 2013 a tropical depression was noted in the Gulf of Thailand. Nobody new
at the time but this was to be Tropical Cyclone Phailin, the strongest cyclone to hit India since
1999. On October 8 the depression progressed to a tropical storm with wind gusts reaching 52
mph and was headed straight for the Indian coastline (European Commission, 2013). With solar
energy powering the storm the conditions were perfect for Phailin to quickly grow into a
category 1 cyclone. By October 11 2013 after undergoing an eye-wall replacement cycle the
cyclone hit category 5 and 9.g million people were in its path. On October 12 Phailin weekend to
a category 4 cyclone and hit land in Odisha India. Without the warm ocean water to feed it the
cyclone began to deteriorate and by October 14 it was just a well-marked area of low pressure.
Cyclone Phailin did not go without a fight and left a path of destruction that will take years to
repair.
Phailin’s path of destruction left $696 million worth of damages in three countries Nepal,
Myanmar, and India. Andhra Pradesh escaped the full force of the storm but was hit with heavy
rains and high gusts of wind killing one person and causing $8.1 million in damages (TNN,
2013). Nepal received heavy rainfall and high winds closing down the Dashain festival and
flooding the Kosi and Gandaki rivers.
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The bulk of the storm and
casualties were in India. Cyclone
Phailin was roughly half the size of
India, the equivalency of France
(LIVE BLOGGING, 2013). Due to
amazing preparation the final death
toll was only 45. 23 of those fatalities were caused by the after effect of flooding. All but one of
the deaths was in India (INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPT, 2013). Odisha Indian was the
hardest hit. Phailin affected 12,396,065 people in Odisha from 18,117 villages. Close to one
million people were evacuated (Leister, 2013).
When the storm made landfall it had sustained winds above 140 MPH. With these wind
speeds trees were up rooted, power lines were blown over and roofs were blown off of buildings.
Since the storm was so large so was its fetch. The storm surge was estimated to raise sea level
by 11 feet at its peak. This led to extensive flooding and the destruction of poor built structures.
Humans are to fault for the amount of damage caused by this surge. Having such populated areas
along the shore line and many flimsy built structures made the cost of areas affected as high as it
was. Add to that the extensive rainfall before, during, and after the storm and flooding was a
major after effect of the storm.
If the direct effects of Phailin weren’t bad enough the indirect effects were worse. Loss of
water and food was a main concern. Relief efforts dropped over 5.7 tons of dry food into the area
(National Disaster Response, 2013). The storm destroyed over 500 lakhs (1235526.91 acres) of
crops insured at over $236 million (Basu, 2013). The storm left more than 500,000 homeless.
Electricity was out in some places for over a week. Transportation came to a halt from
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destruction of ports, airports, railways, and roads costing the devastated cities billions in lost
revenues. The storm devastated habitats for migratory birds killing hundreds of thousands birds.
Thousands of livestock are dead from the storm and after floods. Considering the amount of
damage that was done and the amount of people who live in the affected area the loss of life was
surprisingly small.
Analysis
In order to talk about what was done to lessen the effect of Phailin on India we have to
briefly discuss the devastation from The 1999 Odisha cyclone, also known as Cyclone 05B. This
storm affected 13 million people. 10,000 died, 7,500 were injured, and 1,500 children were
orphaned. 300,000 cattle were lost and 750,000 homes were lost leaving millions homeless
(Limited, 2013). Many died from disease and starvation. All this was due to poor planning and
dismissal of severity of the storm by the Indian government.
Forecasts/Predictions
Thanks to technology we have come a
long way in forecasting cyclonic storms. From
the moment Phailin was a tropical depression
agencies throughout the world were tracking it.
A combination of low wind shear and very
warm waters allowed Phailin to increase in
intensity and maintain its strength. In a matter
of days it went from a depression to a category 5 cyclone.
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As soon as it became a cyclone India jumped in and activated its emergency plan. Much
of India’s approach to preparing for this disaster is from the mistakes made in 1999. India has an
extensive warning and evacuation plan. Although there was argument about the impact of the
storm between the United States and India, they took no chances and started the evacuation.
India has now air reconnaissance they couldn’t take a chance on how fast and strong the storm
was (Cheung, 2013).
India upgraded their warning system after the 1999 Odisha cyclone. This upgrade was to
improve the last mile early warning dissemination system. This allowed the government to get
messages out to the small villages.
Risk Analysis
India is no stranger to cyclonic storms. On
average India gets hit with 4 to 5 storms a year. This
year so far India was hit with four named storms.
Damage is estimated to be above 900 million. Since
recorded history India has been hit with over 300
cyclones. You would think with in these last 200
years India would have learned from their past
mistakes. It wasn’t until recently that they started
planning better.
A main issue they have is with the increasing population along the coastline. Currently
there are 1.6 million people living in at risk areas. Without the thorough evacuation plan Phailin
could have been a catastrophe instead of a disaster with regards to loss of life. Another issue
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India has is haphazard urbanization. There have been no rules or legislation to control how or
where cities are growing. This is cramming more bodies in at risk areas. It also destroys the land
and natures natural defenses against these severe storms. This is a main reason why India had to
evacuate almost a million people to higher ground. To add to that India has had no plan of
development in these areas. Landowners have been selling their lands to rich developers to feed
their families. These developers build high traffic resorts and shopping centers on beach front
property with low building standards. They then insure their property and file claims when a
disaster hits using valuable resources need for relief programs. Then they rebuild and start the
cycle again. This storm cost insurance companies billions of dollars in filled claims. Then there
is the environmental degradation of developing these areas. Sea walls are built that disrupts the
natural tide flows. Rocky areas are removed to flatten the land for development. Cliffs and
mountains are crumbling into the sea from erosion because the natural tides are being diverted.
Then they cut down the forests and trees along the coastline. This is nature’s storm breaks to
minimize the damage done to an area not to mention burning these trees releases carbon into the
air adding to global warming (Ministry of Home Affairs, 2012). This brings me to my final
problem India has to overcome, environmental changes. Although there has been a slight
decrease in the number of cyclonic events over the past few years, there has been a drastic
increase in the severity of these storms. This needs to be a major concern for India because it is
not equipped currently to handle more of the intense storms due to the issues I previously
discussed. Luckily India is now aware of these problems and is developing a plan to lessen the
damage in future storms. The focus of this storm was a zero casualty of human and cattle
approach. Now they need to work on lessening the damage and cost to homes and buildings.
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Linkages
Cyclones are not caused by any other
natural event. Nature can make them
stronger as inthis case with highly warm sea
water to feed on and calm wind shear to let it
grow. Cyclones do however cause other
disasters like wild fires, tornadoes, and in
this case flooding. The property damage and
loss of life was equally caused by the floods that came from the rain. For animals it was the main
cause of death since their instinct tells them to take shelter from a storm.
The floods caused by the storm stranded tens of thousands of people. They are the cause
of 320 million dollars in paddy crop loss. The floods killed over a thousand migratory Siberian
birds. Floods affected the water supply and closed schools and business for weeks (Sphere India ,
2013). 62% of relief money was spent on flood victims (BBC, 2013).
Although India’s government is to be commended on their outstanding job in evacuating
so many people substantially lowering the fatality rate they did not have a plan in place for the
foreseeable floods that most storms produce. Most of the victims were released from the shelters
and sent home before the floods started. This caused another disaster because a lot of the same
people then had to be rescued again. Had the government planned better than they could have
drastically cut the death numbers from the flood lowering the overall fatality count assigned to
Phailin.
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Disaster-Catastrophe
Cyclones are a natural event. There is no way humans can stop them. However humans
are what turns them into a disaster. Whether Cyclone Phailin is considered a catastrophe or a
disaster depends on who you ask. From the standpoint of human deaths it is considered a
disaster. From the amount of property damage it can be seen as a catastrophe. From my stand
point which I have to admit is extremely biased it is a really bad disaster. Having lived through
Katrina and not being physically effected by Phailin my opinion may be disproportionate. The
cost of damages with Phailin may be double that of Katrina but the loss of life was significantly
higher. Katrina demolished a national landmark, New Orleans will never recuperate and the
country lost over $100 billion in revenue to date. India will eventually be rebuilt and survive.
With that being said even though myself and the Indian government does not consider Phailin to
be a catastrophe, a lot of the world does.
As for whether humans have made
this event worse than 50 years ago, I believe
they have. Even though loss of life is the
lowest ever for the area with a storm of this
magnitude, humans made the property and
monetary damage much higher than it
needed to be. I have already explained in
detail a lot of the mistakes made by humans so I will just recap. Humans developed areas along
the shoreline where most of the damage occurred. We destroyed most of the natural barriers. We
built in areas that are known to be devastated by these storms. Most importantly we ruined the
atmosphere with our poisons so that these storms become stronger and do more damage. If
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anyone ever says that humans play no role in damage caused by a storm they are gravely
mistaken. Nature has had the same natural events since the beginning of time. It is only the last
200,000 years that humans have been around to declare disasters.
Preparedness/Mitigation
Since the disaster in 1999 India has done a lot to prepare for cyclonic storms. Their hard
work paid off in Phailin by keeping the fatality count at 45. Their mitigation plan which is
centered on a no casualty mindset was set into action and implemented without any errors. The
current plan is as follows (Bhalla, 2013),
Step 1: As soon as a tropical depression was noted warnings went out to notify people there was
a storm that had the possibility to become a cyclone. These early warning kept the citizens of the
at risk area notified with credible data for a full five days before the storm hit land.
Step 2: When the depression became a tropical storm food rations and packaged water was
placed in shelters.
Step 3: When Phailin became a hurricane with a forecasted path that would affect India
authorities cancelled the holiday of civil servants and deployed relief operators.
Step 4: trains and flights were cancelled and roads were barricaded. Control rooms were created
and satellite phones and backup generators were dispatched to the districts along with helplines
created.
Step 5: The military branches were put on standby and the utility companies were instructed to
get damaged infrastructure restored as quickly as possible.
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Step 6: Farmers were notified to harvest standing crops and fisherman were told not to set sail
and get their boats to safety.
Step 7: A massive evacuation is implemented, relocating almost one million people into over 600
prepared shelters across the country.
However India still has its work cut out for it. They are in development for a new
mitigation plan to reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities. India is proposing to
implement a Coastal Regulations Zone Act (CRZ) that will restrict development no closer than
50 meters of the high tide line. They are looking at rezoning to be in compliance with the CRZ.
They are proposing to install natural Bio shields like mangroves and increase shelter belt
plantation as well as maintain natural sand dunes and promoting natural beach development.
Natural Service Functions
Unfortunately I could find no natural service functions probably because it has not been
very long since it happened. Phailin left devastation everywhere it touched. The only positive is
that India is now looking at the whole picture in mitigation and developing plans to reduce the
damage caused by future storms (Ministry of Home Affairs, 2012).
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Works Cited
AFP. (2013, October 12). Nearly half a million evacuated as cyclone lashes India. Retrieved from Channel
News Asia: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/nearly-half-amillion/845304.html
Associated Press. (2013, October 14). Cyclone Phailin: Strongest For India in a Decade. Retrieved from
The Weather Channel: http://www.weather.com/news/cyclone-phailin-20131011
Basu, M. (2013, November 11). India: Cyclone Phailin may trigger insurance payouts of $236.8 million for
crop losses. Retrieved from Business Insurance:
http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20131111/NEWS09/131119994
BBC. (2013, October 15). India's Cyclone Phailin: Thousands marooned by floods. Retrieved from BBC
News: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-24530193
Bhalla, N. (2013, October 14). Analysis: How a prepared India saved lives during monster storm Phailin.
Retrieved from Reuters: http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/10/14/analysis-cyclone-phailinodisha-idINDEE99D04T20131014
BHUBANESWAR. (2013, October 20). Odisha’s death toll after cyclone, floods climbs to 44. Retrieved
from The Hindu: http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/odisha-focuses-onrelief-as-phailin-toll-rises-to-44/article5247992.ece
Cheung, N. (2013, October 14). Super Cyclonic Storm Phailin: The Strongest Cyclone Ever in the North
Indian Ocean Basin (Op-Ed). Retrieved from Livescience: http://www.livescience.com/40407super-cyclonic-storm-phailin-the-strongest-cyclone-ever-in-the-north-indian-ocean-basin.html
European Commission. (2013, October 12). Automatic impact report for tropical cyclone PHAILIN-13.
Retrieved from Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System:
http://www.gdacs.org/Cyclones/report.aspx?eventid=40489&episodeid=4&eventtype=TC
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPT. (2013, October 12). VERY Severe Cyclone Phailin. Retrieved from
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Leister, E. (2013, October 15). Tropical Cyclone Phailin: Hundreds of Thousands Spared. Retrieved from
Accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-cyclone-phailinbatte/18611884
Limited, H. M. (2013, October 12). Cyclone in Odisha: what had happened in 1999. Retrieved from
Hindustan Times: http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/revisiting-the-super-cyclonethat-hit-odisha-in-1999/article1-1134192.aspx
LIVE BLOGGING. (2013, October 12). As It Happened: Cyclone Reaches Orissa. Retrieved from The Wall
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Ministry of Home Affairs. (2012). Cyclone Risk Mitigation Measures . Retrieved from ADRC:
http://www.adrc.asia/acdr/2011colombo/documents/05_S2_IndiaNCERMPpresentation%20for%20ADRC%20meet%20in%20Srilanka.pdf
National Disaster Response. (2013, October 17). Cyclone Phailin: Rescue and relief operations underway.
Retrieved from NDTV: http://www.ndtv.com/blog/show/cyclone-phailin-rescue-and-reliefoperations-underway-430393
Niticentral Staff. (2013, October 11). 10 facts about Super Cyclone Phailin. Retrieved from Niti Central:
http://www.niticentral.com/2013/10/11/10-facts-about-cyclone-phailin-144519.html
Niticentral Staff. (2013, October 28). Cyclone Phailin. Retrieved from Niti Central:
http://www.niticentral.com/tag/cyclone-phailin
Press Trust of India. (2013, October 16). Cyclone Phailin: 647 villages still marooned in Odisha. Retrieved
from NDTV: http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/cyclone-phailin-647-villages-still-marooned-inodisha-433087
RSS. (2013, October 13). Rainfall across Nepal‚ Phailin impact . Retrieved from The Himalayan Times:
http://www.thehimalayantimes.com/fullNews.php?headline=Rainfall+across+Nepal%E2%80%9
A+Phailin+impact+to+continue+tomorrow+also&NewsID=393805
Samenow, J. (2013, October 11). Category 5 Phailin likely a disaster for India, catastrophic storm surge
“a certainty. Retrieved from The Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/11/category-5phailin-likely-a-disaster-for-india-catastrophic-storm-surge-a-certainty/
Samenow, J. (2013, October 14). Major disaster averted: 5 reasons why cyclone Phailin not as bad as
feared in India. Retrieved from The Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/14/major-disasteraverted-5-reasons-why-cyclone-phailin-not-as-bad-as-feared-in-india/
Singh, N. S. (2013, October 13). Cyclone Phailin kills 14, leaves trail of destruction in India. Retrieved
from CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/13/world/asia/india-cyclone-phailin-aftermath/
Sphere India . (2013, October 26). Sitrep -4: Severe Cyclonic Strom Phailin and Flood. Retrieved from
Sphere India : http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Sitrep4%2BSevere%2BCyclonic%2BStrom%2BPhailin%2Band%2BFlood.pdf
TNN. (2013, October 14). Phailin claims one life in Andhra Pradesh, inflicts Rs 50cr damages. Retrieved
from The Times of India: http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-1014/hyderabad/43025563_1_srikakulam-cultivation-damages