Climate Forecasting 20110413

advertisement
Climate change science is now focusing on quantifying the effects of climate variability and change on
coupled human and natural systems to identify and evaluating strategies for managing this change and its
impacts. This new emphasis on short-term climate forecasting (prediction) and longer-term climate
projection is designed to directly support policy and decision makers managing finite food, water and energy
resources in the context of rising global population and GNP, coupled with multiple human and
environmental stresses. To address critical needs for high quality climate data information and
knowledge in support of national, regional and local decision-making, climate service operations are
being initiated in many countries around the world. These centers will make climate data,
information and knowledge more easily accessible and assessable in a timely manner to broad
segments of the public, government and industry, with trusted evaluation of its provenance, quality
and applicability to those sectors.
1. Who are the major stakeholders in your domain and what are the primary issues they face? Which
of these are climate related?
2. What are the priority climate research and products needed by your community?
3. How can barriers to meaningful interaction between information providers and users be brought
down.
4. How does your community deal with risk, uncertainty and information from other domains?
5. What is needed to develop “official” climate products, processes and services that your community trusts
enough to adopt for decision making?
2. Yesterday’s conclusions
1. Air Qual/Heat stress:
 Economic costs that are meaningful to policy makers is needed
 Ability to integrate data across silos, Cumulative effects to exposures
 Even though Air Q & heat stress are linked, need to separate them to understand them
better. From communities, only the effects matter.
 Adaptation – adapting to heat stress more approachable – individuals have more control
 Science tend to have a different approach than individuals
 Co-benefits of adaptation to heat stress is easier to communicate need to mitigate
CC
2. Key determinants and magnitude of Food &Water threats
i. Need for shared definition, Documenting local/ecosystem impacts
ii. Understanding key processes
1. Surveillance of production, yields, water Q
2. Integrating political/socio-E models with GCMs
3. Migration, Where will breadbaskets shift?
iii. Internat’l trade, Resource supply chains.- Exporting resources via shipping
1. What do we need to know for actions?
2. Key actors, levels that they operate, motivations?
3. Bi-directional education
iv. Response for action on water and food security/storage
1. Until local farmers have power to control water, not much can happen
2. Need to understand social Barriers –
3. urbanization and peri-urban food production
4. Need to translate current knowledge to action
5. database of hydrological characteristics by region
v. health implications of F/W threats
1. guidelines/policies for land use
2. more info for options for adapting to changing rainfall – biotech, different crops
3. ways to scale up indigenous knowledge
4. need to shift policy makers to more action
3. Kellogg - Data gaps –
i. Baby steps Funding opportunities
ii. Water, Population, Identifying Vul populations
iii. Miss-spent money – Consumer behavior
iv. Disaster response
4. Balbus - Creating a community of Practice - http://www.niehs.nih.gov/strategicplan
i. Vertically – end-to-end science
ii. Horizontal (multidisciplinary science)
iii. Components
1. Integrating disparate data streams
2. Connecting to decision makers
3. Connecting to policy makers
4. Fed, regional, tribal, local public health official
3. My experience is that support funding is the most effective way to unite communities
 Climate info push doesn’t work. Uninformed demand doesn’t work either. Process needs to be 2-way
 Climate info by itself has not been seen to be useful for practical decision making
 Over the fence info: Not understood, not trusted, doesn’t answer the right questions to make decisions
 What works is diff approach: start with the problems in the setting where they occur, work with the communities that
have to mng the problems, co-discover opportunities within that context to improve mnging the problems. Leads to
better understating of how the climate products are most useful
 Multiple Stresses: climate almost never acts alone. Need to understand how climate interacts with other societal
stressors. We all come from a certain discipline and tend to see the world thru that lens.
 Need to think of the impacts of WX inside of climate (heat waves, extremes) and longer-term projections for decision
making
0. Title page/ID funding Agency & opportunity
Balbus NIEHS/CDC funding
NSF: Research Coordination Networks (RCN) Program Solicitation NSF 11-531
http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2011/nsf11531/nsf11531.htm#summary
SEES track – Science Engineering and Education for Sustainability (May 24
UBC track - Targeted Undergraduate Biology Education track (Jun 15
1. Introduction
a. Intro paragraph/problem statement
b. Overarching objective and implications
c. Approach summary
d. Deliverable summary
2. Technical Approach and Activities Introduction
a. Technical Approach
1. We will deliver
2. At the global scale…
3. At the regional scale…
4. Local/societal implications….
b. Description of Collaboration
c. Health and/or Climate Change Scenarios
3. Summary of Tasks
a. Overview
b. Task 1 Title/Overview
i. Task 1a title/overview
1. Methodology
2. Assumptions
3. Output/Results
ii. Task 1b Title/overview + Methodology, Assumptions, Output/Results
iii. Task 1c Title/overview + Methodology ,Assumptions, Output/Results
iv. Where useful, discuss fit to task 2
c. Task 2
4. References
Download