Global Climate Model Projections
Objective – to analyze and interpret simple and complex climate model projections and understand the factors
and assumptions associated with projections.
Directions – open the Climate Models PowerPoint and use it to answer the following questions.
Slide #1
This is called the Very Simple Climate model and allows you to make projections about global temperature
based on carbon emissions. As a comparison, if a real climate model was Albert Einstein, the Very Simple
Climate model would be Snookie from Jersey Shore.
1. List the color and description of the three things that this graph shows.
Purple – CO2 emissions in GT/years
Black – CO2 concentrations in ppm
Red – Global Mean Temperature in Celsius or Fahrenheit
Let’s start with a scenario called “business as usual.” In other words, we keep going exactly as we are and
steadily increase carbon emissions every year.
2. Set the time step to 10 years, set the emissions to 10 Gt/year,
and click Step Forward. Now increase the emissions to 11
Gt/year and click Step Forward. Repeat this process until you
have reached the end of the graph. Use the final points on the
graph to fill out the table to the right.
CO2 emissions (Gt/year)
CO2 concentration (ppm)
Temperature (°C)
Change in Temperature (°C)
19
600
16.4
+2.1
Now let’s examine a scenario where we magically freeze carbon emissions at 10 Gt/year until the year 2110.
3. Set the time step to 10 years, set emissions to 10
Gt/year, but this time just click Play. Use the final
points to fill out the table to the right.
CO2 emissions (Gt/year)
CO2 concentration (ppm)
Temperature (°C)
Change in Temperature (°C)
10
520
15.9
+1.6
Next let’s examine a more realistic emission reduction program where we increase emissions for the next 20
years and then steadily decrease after that.
4. Set the time step to 10 years and emissions to 10 Gt/year.
Increase emissions by 1 Gt/year and step forward. Increase
again by 1 Gt/year and step forward. Now decrease emissions
by 1 Gt/year for every step forward until you reach the end.
Use the final points to fill out the table to the right.
CO2 emissions (Gt/year)
CO2 concentration (ppm)
Temperature (°C)
Change in Temperature (°C)
3
480
15.4
+1.1
5. Now choose a scenario different than the previous three, and carry it out. Describe your scenario and record
your results below.
CO2 emissions (Gt/year)
Description
CO2 concentration (ppm)
Temperature (°C)
Change in Temperature (°C)
Slide #2
1. What is this graph showing and why is it important?
This graph is showing how closely 58 different models match observational data as well as how well the
“average” of all those models compares. It’s important because it provides confidence in the ability of climate
models to accurately project into the future.
Slide #3
This is an interactive display of the actual global climate model projections made by the IPCC. Just like the
different scenarios you ran with the Very Simple Climate Model, there are a number of different projections
based on population, economic, and energy use factors. In other words, this is the Albert Einstein version…
1. Using the drop down menu in the upper right hand corner, examine each different scenario and use the
information to fill out the table below.
Scenario
Description
Factors
Result
A1B
A more homogenous “global”
economy and society with rapid
increases in technology and an
energy policy that is (B)alanced
between all sources of energy
Population: Low (~7 billion)
Economic growth: Very high
Primary Energy Use: Very high
Land use change: Low
CO2 emissions: 13 Gt/year
CO2 conc: 680 ppm
Temp increase: 3 °C
A1F1
Same as A1B but with most
energy still coming from fossil
fuels. (F)ossil (I)ntensive.
Population: Low (~7 billion)
Economic growth: Very high
Primary Energy Use: Very high
Land use change: Low
CO2 emissions: 30 Gt/year
CO2 conc: 1000 ppm
Temp increase: 5 °C
A1T
Same as A1B but with most
energy coming from non fossil
fuel sources.
Population: Low (~7 billion)
Economic growth: Very high
Primary Energy Use: Very high
Land use change: Low
CO2 emissions: 4 Gt/year
CO2 conc: 600 ppm
Temp increase: 2.5 °C
A2
Heterogeneous “non global”
economy and society. Population
steadily increases. Development is
regional. (“Business as usual”
scenario)
Population: High
Economic growth: Medium
Primary Energy Use: High
Land use change: Medium
CO2 emissions: 29 Gt/year
CO2 conc: 900 ppm
Temp increase: 4 °C
B1
Low, more homogenous
population with an emphasis on
global solutions for sustainable
energy and land use changes.
(Most countries get their act
together)
Increasing population with an
emphasis on local solutions to
economic, social, and energy
issues. (Some countries get their
act together)
Population: Low
Economic growth: High
Primary Energy Use: Low
Land use change: High
CO2 emissions: 6 Gt/year
CO2 conc: 580 ppm
Temp increase: 2 °C
Population: Medium
Economic growth: Medium
Primary Energy Use: Medium
Land use change: Medium
CO2 emissions: 14 Gt/year
CO2 conc: 600 ppm
Temp increase: 3 °C
B2
2. On a separate piece of paper, summarize what was done in this activity, what the results where, and why it is
important to understanding global climate change.