Campaign Country: Lao
Species/Conservation Objective: Strengthening community enforcement against poaching of tiger prey
PPM: Annalisa Bianchessi
CM: Santi Saypanya (“Joy”)
LAP: WCS Lao
Update as of: Dec 19th, 2009
Supervisor: Troy Hansel
Strategic Issues:
Issue
Who
responsible
1. CR magnitude: How much
difference can we expect to make
in this campaign? (in terms of
changing behavior of the hunters
and then the effect that would
have on the tiger prey)?
What tiger prey increase is
needed for the tiger population to
increase? (and will hunting be
sustainable if all illegal hunting is
stopped?)
Arlyne
Johnson,
Next
Status
milestone
(date)
Not yet resolved but we received the following information from Arlyne.
Next step is for AB to follow up with Will Banham and Emma Stokes
Will
Banham/Emma AB to
stokes
follow up
with WM
and ES on
22 Dec,
Group
call early
Jan
The below looks like a good start (and is very interesting), but please expand Follow-up with what objective, by when? I think a great next step would be
for someone smart build a model (or several alternative models) in excel to
emulate the campaign’s Theory of change using the below data &
information. This could generate some initial BC, TR, Cr targets but more
likely would enable us to figure out which variables/relationships are
weakest/most important so that we can do more research or make some
explicit assumptions. We need to do this quickly if we are to have decent
targets for a measures pan and a BR grant application by early / mid-January.
Linkages between illegal hunting – tiger prey and tiger:
a. What tiger prey increase is needed for the tiger population to increase?
b. And what hunting decrease is needed for such an increase in tiger prey?
C. will hunting be sustainable if all illegal hunting is stopped?
d. How much difference can we expect to make in this campaign? (in terms
of changing behavior of the hunters and then the effect that would have on
the tiger prey)?
a. Karanth et al., 2004 provides useful findings on the relationship between
tiger densities and prey abundance across several Indian reserves (see
attached). In a simpler format, Karanth and Nichols 2002 suggest that a base
population of ~500 prey animals is needed to maintain a single tiger. For
example, the 2008 prey occupancy survey in NEPL estimated a prey
abundance index of 3.25 prey per sq. km across a sample area of 2,600 sq
km of the NPA core zone. Note that the relationship between an abundance
index and actual abundance remains uncertain. If there were a direct
relationship between the index and actual abundance, this would equate to
8,450 prey in the 2600 sq km area, which applying the Karanth and Nichols
(2002) figure of 500 prey per tiger, would arrive at an estimated 17 tigers in
the sample area (roughly equating to a density of 0.65 tiger per 100 sq km).
This estimate does approximate our estimates of actual tiger density from
2004 (Johnson, Vongkhamheng, et al.,2006) of a population of 0.2-0.7 tigers
per 100 sq km in the same area (see attached).
b, We have limited data on the relationship between the index of hunting in
the NPA (such as guns or metal snares per km patrolled) and prey abundance
in NEPL. Although indices of hunting using MIST have been gathered since
2007 in the NPA, we have only one rigorous estimates of a prey abundance
index from 2008. It would be extremely useful to be able to repeat this prey
abundance survey in 2010 to be able to understand if and how much the prey
abundance index has changed as a result of enforcement (and observed
declines in hunting indices) since 2008. In the absence of this data for NEPL,
we could perhaps refer to trends in the relationship between hunting and prey
at Houey Khay Keng, Thailand where they have been monitoring both hunting
and prey over consecutive years.
c. There have been no analyses completed in Laos on the sustainability of
subsistence hunting in the absence of illegal hunting to answer this question.
A preliminary study of household food consumption and food sources in NEPL
suggest that the legal harvest of large mammals and birds has declined since
2007 with the collection of home-made muskets, the restrictions on metal
snares and military weapons for hunting, and active enforcement of core zone
protection. We hope to assess the sustainability of the legal offtake in
selected villages over the next two years.
2. CR science: Is the tiger
population a genetically viable
population? What change in
hunting will be needed to secure
the tiger? (Excel model?)
This would be interesting to know but is not considered a priority by the
scientists working at NEPL and so we will not invest more energy into
resolving this at present.
Resolved for now: In other words, the tacit “plan” by the scientific community
3. Campaign messaging: Should
we add a message to the
government officers to stop the
sale of ammunition?
Joy, troy
January
Joy, Troy
to discuss
and
decide
is to stem the immediate pressures on the existing tiger population, and then
to address connectivity and genetic diversity.
Politically sensitive, need to think and test.
Annalisa has included it in issues to be discussed on group call.
When can we get the Rare/WCS Thailand & Laos group call scheduled for?
Technical Issues:
Issue
1. Need to set SMART objectives for
the tiger prey and for TR
2. Monitoring/measures:
• Baseline data and monitoring
approach needs strengthening
3. Check agreement with WCS re BR
funding and WCS match funding
Who
responsible
Next
milestone
(date)
Will Banham, AB to follow
Emma
up with WB
Stokes,
and ES
Annalisa
Dec22,
Bianchessi
Group call
early Jan
Will Banham, AB to follow
Emma
up with WB
Stokes,
and ES
Annalisa
Dec22,
Bianchessi
Group call
early Jan
Joy, Troy and January 5th
Will Banham submission of
draft BR grant
application
Status
On a recent call with Will Banham it was agreed that this is best done
centrally with Emma Stokes for both Lao and Thailand campaign
Are we all clear on when the SMART objectives are needed by?
A above
Yes, overlaps with the discussion of how to make targets and
measures more scientifically (even managerially) accurate above.
Also, are we all comfortable with the resources and methods for the
measures that are needed?
This has been raised by Steve and Annalisa on call with Will Banham.
Joy has now asked if he can include a request for monitoring funding
in his BR strategy. Will Banham promised to research/escalate the
issue within WCS and let us know what WCS can bring to the table.