Cool 2.0 – Grade 10 Climate Change Unit
LESSON 7: Climate Modeling
Student Worksheet
Introduction - Scientific Models
Scientific models are used to describe and account for the relationships between variables in
the natural world and to make predictions about their behaviour.
There are many different kinds of scientific models. Scientific models may be physical structures
such as a model of a cell or solar system or conceptual models such as a description of the
particle theory. Many scientific models, including climate models, are highly mathematical.
In this lesson you will investigate climate models and learn how they can be used to predict
future climatic conditions based on observations of past and present data.
How Do Climate Models Work?
Go to the web site EPAs website on Future Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html
Begin the climate modeling animation by clicking on the slideshow image
When the slideshow opens you must click on the Model Overview tab at the bottom left of the
window.
Model Overview: How Do Climate Models Work?
Click on the SMALL forward arrow on the right
answer the following:
to move through the animation and
Modeling the Earth System (Tab 1)
1) What four main components of the Earth are represented by a mathematical climate model?
Gridding the Earth(Tab 2)
2) Describe the distribution of “spatial boxes” used in climate models.
Modeling Climate Interactions(Tab 3)
3) How are the movements of energy, air and water represented in climate models?
4) Add the missing labels to the following diagram
Supercomputers (Tab 5)
5) Why are supercomputers needed for climate modeling?
Testing Models: How are Climate Models Tested?
Testing Accuracy (Tab 1)
6) How do scientists use past climatic records to “test” their models?
Capturing Observed Features (Tab 2)
7)
Have the models been able to accurately predict or “match” what happened in the past for:
a) Average temperatures?
b) Precipitation?
Confidence in Projections (Tab 3)
8) Can climate models predict all details accurately? Which are most difficult?
Climate vs Weather (Tab 6)
9) For how many days into the future are we able to confidently forecast daily weather?
10) For how long into the future are we able to estimate climate?
Diagnosing the Past: What Causes Climate Change?
Observed Global Temperature (Tab 1)
11) Describe the general trend in global temperatures from 1900 to 2000
Natural Processes (Tab 2)
12) Are volcanic eruptions associated with temperature spikes of temperature drops? Use
examples.
13) Describe the effects of El Nino’s and La Nina’s on climate.
14) Would you describe these natural effects as short term or long term?
Can Natural Causes Explain the Warming? (Tab 3)
15) Examine the graph. The shaded area labeled “natural factors” shows where the very best
climate models predict temperatures would be based on natural factors alone. How does the
actual observed temperature trend compare to this area?
Human Influence (Tab 4)
16) Examine the graph. The shaded area labeled “human + natural factors” shows where the
very best climate models predict temperatures would be based on both natural factors AND
all the greenhouse gases resulting from human activities. How does the actual observed
temperature trend compare to this area?
Estimating the Future: How Will Our Decisions Affect Climate?
Representing Human Behaviour in Models (Tab 1)
17) What are “scenarios” and why are they used in climate models?
18) What five important factors are included in these scenarios?
19) Describe the differences between a “High Emissions Scenario” and a “Low Emissions
Scenario”?
Possible Future Scenarios (Tab 2)
20) How do different human behaviour scenarios influence the greenhouse gas emission values
used in climate models?
Climate Effects of the Scenarios (Tab 3)
21) Examine the graph on the left. What is the difference in predicted future temperatures (by
the year 2100) when comparing the High and Low emission scenarios?
22) Which human behaviour scenario is most acceptable?
Translating Warming to Impact (Tab 4)
23) What five main areas of concern might be impacted by climate changes?
24) What are the main potential negative impacts for:
a) Water
b) Ecosystems
c) Food
d) Coasts
e) Health
Using Models to Inform Decisions (Tab 5)
25) Explain the difference between mitigation and adaptation.
26) List three examples of each:
a) Mitigation:
b) Adaptation:
In a small group discuss and answer the following question:
27) Do you think mitigation and adaptation and both equally important or do you think society
should be concentrating on one more than the other? Share your thoughts with the class.
ONTARIO CLIMATE MODELS
Scientists are able to use sophisticated climate models to predict expected changes in
temperatures and precipitation patterns for specific locations. In this part of the activity you will
examine the results of modeling of Ontario’s climate future. These models are presented in the
form of climate maps.
Open the Ontario Climate Change Mapping Tool.
http://www.mnr.gov.on.ca/en/Business/ClimateChange/1ColumnSubPage/STDPROD_093198.h
tml
Future Climate - Temperatures
1) Begin by selecting Future Climate maps. To view the first map:
a. Choose Temperature – Summer average from the drop down Climate Value menu
b. Choose 2011-2040 from the drop down Time Period menu
c. Choose A2-higher greenhouse gas scenario from the drop down Scenario menu
d. Choose Province from the drop down Map Type menu
Note: Ontario will appear in the drop down Location menu
e. Click “View Map”
[Note: in the Legend, the “Difference in Temperature” values 0-1, 1-2, . . . may not be perfectly aligned with their
corresponding coloured boxes ]
Now switch the scenario to B2 – lower greenhouse gas scenario and view the map to
compare the predicted temperature changes.
g. Complete the matching part of your worksheet - Ontario Climate Model
Observation Table
f.
2) Repeat 3) for the different time periods: 2041-2070 and 2071-2100
3) Repeat 3) and 4) for Temperature – Winter average
Ontario Climate Model Observation Table
A2 – higher greenhouse gas scenario
B2 – lower greenhouse gas scenario
Maximum temperature change (oC)
Maximum temperature change (oC)
2011-2040
Summer
Average
Winter
Average
2041-2070
2071-2100
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-2100
4) What do these climate model results suggest about:
a. Seasonal temperature changes - which part of the year will be most affected by
climate change?
b. The benefits of a “lower greenhouse gas” scenario? Would reducing greenhouse gas
emissions have any impact on future temperature changes?
Future Climate - Precipitation
5) IF time permits you may wish to explore the predicted changes in precipitation for the
province and answer the following:
a. Are precipitation changes expected to be more pronounced during the warmer or
colder parts of the year?
b. Overall, is precipitation in Ontario expected to increase or decrease in the future?
c. How might changing precipitation patterns influence agriculture and forestry in
Ontario?