WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
Supporting the AMDAR Program
Business Case for Meteorological Services 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This document presents and describes the case for supporting the AMDAR program
of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized agency of the
United Nations dedicated to weather, water and climate. The AMDAR (Aircraft
Meteorological DAta Relay) program, a partnership between the WMO, the public
and private sectors, with a key role for National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services (NMHSs), delivers a range of economic, social and environmental benefits
to stakeholders across the following sectors:

Environmental protection

Agriculture

Health

Disaster risk reduction

Aviation
This document is intended for use by NMHSs that may be interested in participating
in or supporting the program.
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I.
AMDAR OVERVIEW
BACKGROUND
The Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay (AMDAR), a program overseen by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), fosters partnerships between airline companies, weather
monitoring and forecasting organizations and other relevant stakeholders. The program uses
commercial aircraft’s existing sensors, avionics, and global telecommunications systems to
gather, analyze and disseminate data that improves the frequency of weather reporting and
the accuracy of weather forecasting.1
The AMDAR system uses sensors on commercial aircraft, such as Korean Air or South African
Airways passenger planes, to collect and distribute key meteorological data (wind speed and
direction, temperature, etc.) during flight, for improved weather reporting and forecasting
worldwide.
Automated weather observations by aircraft were first used in 1978, with the first operational
AMDAR program beginning in 1986 with just 5 aircraft. Growth has been rapid, as seen in Figure
1 below. To date, the program has grown to include 39 participating airlines and over 3800
commercial aircraft worldwide. Participating airlines include American Airlines, Air Vanuatu,
Korean Air, Lufthansa, Shandong Airlines, British Airways, KLM, Cathay Pacific, South African
Airways, and Qantas Airways.2
Figure 1 – Global aircraft observations – average of daily report totals3
The growing number of airline partners and AMDAR-equipped aircraft within existing airline
fleets are a testament to the value of the program for airlines and the airline industry overall.
AMDAR is recognized by the WMO as a critical component of the WMO Integrated Global
Observing System (WIGOS), supporting the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme.
Compared with other weather monitoring and reporting systems, AMDAR is also a highly cost
effective solution, in most cases, requiring only the deployment of an avionics software
application. For example, an average AMDAR program, utilizing 30 aircraft, is estimated to be
no more than 20% of the cost of a comparable radiosonde program (a system which utilizes
1
WIGOS – The Benefits of AMDAR data to Meteorology and Aviation Report 2014 (“WIGOS Benefits Report”)
2
AMDAR program website: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/AMDAR//AMDAR_Airlines.html
3 http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/data/statistics/aircraft_obs_cmc_mthly_ave_daily_reports_by_type.jpg
3
weather balloons and telemetry instruments to collect atmospheric data).4 Indeed, a recent
Met Office cost-benefit analysis on different observing systems 5 found AMDAR to give the
highest impact per cost on a global numerical weather prediction model.
AMDAR PROGRAM OPERATION
AMDAR utilizes aircraft’s onboard instruments and avionics systems to provide accurate
meteorological measurements, such as air temperature and winds. This data is transmitted to
the ground usually by VHF radio or satellite, and from ground stations to meteorological
processing centers via the airline’s data processing center 6 . Information on the following
parameters is collected at all phases of flight7 as standard:
– Altitude (pressure derived)
– Temperature
– Wind speed
– Wind direction
Additional parameters which can be optionally collected by participating airlines include:
– Humidity
– Turbulence
These additional parameters require further software application functionality (and in the case
of humidity, sensor hardware) – but can improve weather forecasting even further. AMDAR
measurements are compiled into a standard message format and transmitted to the partner
national weather center, or National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS), in as
near to real-time as possible.
Figure 2 – Schematic of the basic AMDAR system*
* Reflects major service providers contracted by participating airlines. National service providers, such as Brazil and
China, also participate in the program.
More detailed information on the AMDAR observing system is available from the WMO AMDAR
website (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/AMDAR/About.html).
4
This assumes the AMDAR program is equipped with humidity sensors such as WVSS-II. WIGOS Benefits Report
5
Eyre, J. and R. Reid, 2014: Cost-benefit studies of observing systems. Met Office, UK
6
Data transmitted from aircraft using ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System). AMDAR
Coverage and Recruitment Study 2013
7 EUMETNET AMDAR presentation at Royal Meteorological Society 2013
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II.
BENEFITS OF AMDAR AND IMPROVED FORECASTING
How AMDAR Improves Forecasting
AMDAR observations are used in the production, verification and assessment of predictive
weather models and forecast products and diagnostics, the results of which contribute to an
improvement in model performance and predictive skill – and also to helping forecasts
continuously improve. AMDAR data has been proven effective in improving the quality and
accuracy of weather reports – reducing forecast errors by up to 20%.
AMDAR data has become the second 8 , 9 or third 10 most important data set globally for
improving 24 hour forecasts, depending on the study – and the data source with the most
consistent impact. Further, AMDAR is unique as the only source of in situ upper air data taken
throughout the day (rather than at set times) providing both temperature and wind
observations.11 AMDAR also plays an important role in verifying forecasts and the models used
to create them, in particular when the output of a model has to be corrected on the basis of
recent AMDAR information.
Aviation and public weather forecasters also make use of AMDAR data for both the
verification and updating of forecasts in the shorter-term and in the periods between updates
of forecasts based on predictive models (usually made every 6 or 12 hours). This advantage
and resulting enhancement to forecast skill is derived from the high temporal availability of
AMDAR data (often as frequent as one or more vertical profiles per hour).12 The data continues
to have a positive impact on forecasts up to 48 hours out.
This was clearly demonstrated in the US during the grounding of civilian aircraft following the
terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. Between the 11 and 13 September, with no AMDAR
data available, there was a 20% loss of 3 hour Rapid Update Cycle wind forecast skill at 250mb,
and 3 hour forecast skill differed little from 12 hour skill – suggesting AMDAR had far more
impact than other off-time reports.13
The accuracy, high reporting volume and frequency and timeliness of AMDAR data make it
an important factor in improved weather monitoring and prediction, which has a wide range
of benefits and beneficiaries – both including and beyond the aviation industry.
8
Radnoti, G. et al, 2010: ECMWF study on the impact of future developments of the space-based observing system
on Numerical Weather Prediction
9 Taking satellite observations as a single data set
10
Petersen, R. A., 2014: On the current impact and future benefits of AMDAR observations in operational forecasts
11
Ibid.
12
WIGOS Benefits Report
13
Petersen, R. A., 2004: Summary of Impact Tests of Automated Wind/Temp. Reports from Commercial Aircraft
5
Improvements in forecasts, enabled by AMDAR data, deliver a wide range of economic, social
and environmental benefits for participating organizations, countries, and regions. At the
national level, AMDAR-enabled reporting allows public, private and civil society organizations
to plan and respond more reliably to impacts of weather-related events. In rural Africa alone,
it is estimated that over 700 million poor people are negatively impacted by the lack of reliable
weather information. 14 Thus, AMDAR-enabled weather reporting presents significant
opportunities and benefits to:





The Environment
Agriculture
Health
Disaster Risk Reduction
Aviation
1. Benefits to the Environment
AMDAR data, used to improve weather reporting and forecasting, can support airlines in
reducing their annual fuel burn, which in turn results in reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
South African Airways estimates that for every 1000kg of fuel consumed by aircraft, 3100kg of
CO2 is emitted. Over a one-year period, South African Airways was able to reduce its fuel
consumption using pre- and in-flight route optimization using AMDAR data, by 600,000 kg. In
turn, this reduced the airline’s CO2 emissions by approx. 2 million kg, or 2000 tons of carbon
dioxide that year.15
Other AMDAR-enabled efficiencies which have environmental benefits include the use of
continuous descent approach, described later, which reduces both noise and CO2 emissions;
and better targeted use of deicing fluid based on improved forecasting, reducing the
environmental impact of operating a plane in cold weather.
Additionally, AMDAR data contributes to regional and global efforts to measure and monitor
environmental and climatological patterns and trends. Particularly in regions where upper air
data is currently scarce but aviation traffic is present, the development of AMDAR will be vital
to studying and better understanding the mechanisms for and impacts of climate change at
both the regional and global levels.
Furthermore, AMDAR observations are taken at altitudes of 200 – 400 hPa (7 - 12 kms) when
aircraft are at cruising elevations; and it is at this level where observations are highly relevant
for the study of the variability and change in water vapour that are key to understanding
climate change16. Should AMDAR be expanded globally, it would assist greatly in assembling
a global climatology of atmospheric humidity.
2. Benefits to Agriculture
Better forecasting enables more efficient use of agricultural inputs, and can ensure lower crop
losses due to extreme weather or natural disasters. Increased accuracy in forecasting also
enables the agricultural sector to optimize the post-harvest supply chain.
Better temperature and wind information, which influence the migration of locusts, can be
used to support (early warning for) locust migration. Locust, in particular the Desert Locust,
“poses the greatest threat of all locusts to humans because hopper bands and adults swarms
can rapidly arise and migrate, potentially threatening food security in some 60 countries in
14
15
16
Weather Info for All Concept Paper, WMO, 2008
South African Airways AMDAR Business Case
AMDAR and Climate, R. Boers and J.P van der Meulen, KNMI, Netherlands, May 2011
6
Africa, the Middle East and Asia”.17 Since very few wind data providing systems are available
in Africa, the expansion of AMDAR can be beneficial in seasonal locust migration forecasting.
With AMDAR data less available over parts of the world where agriculture plays a larger role in
national economies, more direct links between AMDAR data and agricultural benefits are
difficult to draw. What is clear, however, is the benefit AMDAR has to forecasts – and the
benefits that improved forecasts have to agriculture.
The WMO reports that use of weather information can increase agricultural productivity by
20%. In India, the Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
provides improved rainfall data to an insurance company that offers weather insurance to
over 50,000 farmers.18
3. Benefits to Health
Using improved weather information, governments, communities and health NGOs can better
prevent the spread of climate-sensitive diseases such as cholera, dengue and meningitis.
Rainfall predictions are currently used in East Africa to predict outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever (a
mosquito-borne virus) – scientists use weather data to create monthly risk maps of the disease.
19
Again, direct benefit flow from AMDAR to health benefits are difficult to draw given the current
coverage of the program. However, in the US, moisture data provided by AMDAR have shown
short-range forecast impacts larger than from any other moisture observations. This has
enhanced prediction of both the timing and location of precipitation events 20.
Annually, approximately 1 million lives are claimed by weather- and climate-sensitive diseases
– most of these are children under the age of 5 in developing countries. It is estimated that
23,000 lives could be saved each year through improvements to health resulting from more
accurate weather monitoring and forecasting.21
4. Benefits to Disaster Risk Reduction
Accurate weather predictions can improve prediction of the scale, location, and severity of
extreme weather events, and trigger preventive responses to severe weather and natural
disasters. According to the World Bank, between 1970 and 2010, natural hazards were
responsible for the deaths of 3.3 million people. 22 In 2011 alone, approximately 206 million
people were affected by natural disasters, with an economic impact of USD$366 billion.23
Using weather data can reduce human and economic losses from floods, droughts, storms,
and wildfires. In 2008 the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
(IFRC) used seasonal precipitation forecasts to prepare in advance for floods in West and
Central Africa. 24 IFRC was able to meet victims’ needs within 24-48 hours of flooding,
compared to 40 days the year prior, and the cost of flood response per beneficiary was also
33% lower than in 2006/2007.
Yale F&ES Bulletin 103
“Better rainfall data means Indian farmers have better insurance against crop failure,” Research Program on
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, 2013
19 “Rift Valley Fever,” WHO website, 2014
17
18
20
WMO analysis from upcoming paper
21
Weather Info for All Concept Paper, WMO, 2008
22
Weather and Climate Resilience Report, World Bank 2013
23
UNISDRE Report 2011
24
Early Warning, Early Action - Evaluation of IFRC West & Central Africa Zone Preparedness & Response. IFRC, 2008
7
A recent study has shown that AMDAR data had a greater impact than any other data source
on improving forecasts of the location and timing of landfall of Hurricane Sandy in 2012 –
double the impact of balloon-carried weather probes (rawinsondes).25
5. Benefits to Aviation and the Airline Industry
Improved forecasting services and meteorological products, resulting from the provision of
AMDAR data and its inclusion in predictive meteorological models, can have significant
positive impact on aviation operations. Examples of weather conditions where improved
weather information, owing to AMDAR data, can play a significant role for airlines, airports and
air traffic control are26:
-
Thunderstorm genesis, location and severity
Additional and improved wind information near airports
Detection of zero-degree level (freezing rain)
Fog formation, location and duration
Turbulence location and intensity
Conditions leading to aircraft icing
By providing more frequent and accurate insight into the above conditions, AMDAR data
allows stakeholders in the aviation industry to better prepare for weather patterns and
changes in order to improve their operations – and ultimately reduce costs.
More specifically, AMDAR-enabled reporting and forecasting have a wide range of benefits
for both individual airlines as well as the airline industry overall. These include:
-
More efficient flight operations: optimized flight plans to avoid turbulent weather and
unplanned diversions for reduced fuel consumption, minimized wear and tear on
aircraft thereby increasing their useful life and reducing maintenance costs
-
Reduced carbon footprint: lower aircraft fuel burn reduces CO2 emissions, which
reduces both emissions costs and environmental damage, as well as improving
corporate reputation
-
Increased safety and passenger comfort: improved route planning allows aircraft to
avoid inclement weather which threaten passenger and crew safety, reduces
unplanned diversions resulting in fewer delays and cancellations, and reduces airport
and customer service costs thereby increasing customer satisfaction and airline
patronage
25
WMO analysis, based on Hoover, Brett T.; Velden, C. S. and Langland, R. H. to NOAA Annual Hurricane Workshop.
Miami, FL. https://ams.confex.com/ams/31hurr/webprogram/manuscript/paper243960/7A.3_abstract.pdf
26 WIGOS Benefits Report
8
III. THE FUTURE OF AMDAR
The AMDAR program has experienced significant growth in recent years. As of October 2014,
nearly 700,000 AMDAR aircraft observations were reported globally, representing a nearly 75%
increase over the 2013 observation levels.
However, AMDAR participation is currently concentrated in Europe, North America, East Asia
and Australasia, resulting in frequent and high quality observations benefitting a range of
players in these well-developed markets.
Large areas where aircraft-based observations are still relatively infrequent have significant
potential for improved weather forecasting. Figure 3 shows vertical profile coverage (data
collected during ascent and descent) at 528 airports worldwide, while Figure 4 shows a day’s
worth of observations, highlighting differences in data concentration across regions.27
Figure 3 – Vertical Profile data coverage, January 26, 2014




Yellow = less
than 1 profile
per day
Green = 1-7
profiles per day
Blue
=
8-24
profiles per day
Purple = greater
than 24 profiles
per day
Figure 4 – Two-dimensional global aircraft-based observations coverage, March 9, 2015
27
WMO AMDAR data statistics - http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/data/ABO_Data_Statistics.html
9
As illustrated in the figures above, significant scope exists to increase aircraft-based
meteorological observations throughout Latin America, Africa, and large areas of Central and
South Asia where data is relatively sparse.
The AMDAR program has the potential to add significant value to weather reporting in these
regions for a relatively small cost and with far-reaching benefits for private sector, government
and civil society actors, as detailed in Section II of this report.
AMDAR Expansion
AMDAR expansion into the data-sparse regions will yield greater incremental benefits for
developing and emerging markets, which in many cases are more vulnerable to weatherrelated phenomena than developed economies. Thus, over the coming years, WMO looks to
expand the AMDAR program particularly into these regions.
WMO has adopted a regional approach for developing and implementing the AMDAR
program, aiming to fulfil each region’s specific requirements and is now looking for
governments and organizations who share the program’s aims to contribute and benefit from
this expansion.
The participation of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will be crucial in
enabling this continued expansion – both as advocates for AMDAR to other organizations, and
users of the AMDAR data to help ensure the full range of benefits are realized.
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IV. SUPPORTING THE AMDAR PROGRAM
AMDAR operation requires participation from airline companies and National Meteorological
and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in particular. While AMDAR expansion into data-sparse
regions will also require support from and collaboration among a number of additional
stakeholder groups, WMO understands the need for NMHSs to be at the forefront of the
program’s expansion.
NMHSs will be required to process the data to improve their weather forecasting and benefit
from improved quality and frequency of meteorological data, and reduced forecast errors.
Participating in the program may require new capabilities and personnel training, and
potentially investment in new equipment and communication links. WMO and other partners
can support newly participating NMHSs through training material and programs, sharing best
practices in implementing an AMDAR program and using AMDAR data, and (for partners)
potentially assisting with funding for investment in new equipment and capabilities, and for
ongoing running costs.
Regional WMO offices, the WMO Secretariat in Geneva, and other participating NMHSs can
all act as advisors and supporters for newly participating Meteorological Services, according
to need. The WMO is committed to making entry into the program as efficient as possible.
Other stakeholders play key roles in the AMDAR program and NMHSs will have the opportunity
to build relationships with them as part of AMDAR program participation.
Airline Companies that transmit collected data during flights to partner NMHSs will benefit from
improved weather forecasts from feed-back on the quality and performance of the AMDAR
data sources, and boost their public perception through participation. This may require a
nominal investment in the program to enable participation, and for airlines in areas not
covered by VHF, potentially increased costs to transmit AMDAR data by satellite.
Airports and Air Traffic Control, which could use AMDAR-based products to manage airline
traffic and altitude, as well as runway selection, would see improved coordination of air traffic
resulting in an increase of overall capacity and a reduction in congestion. This would lead to
fewer delays, reduced airport and fuel costs, and increased passenger safety. As with NMHSs,
participating may require new capabilities and personnel training, and potentially investment
in new equipment and communications links.
Aviation authorities, who can oversee, promote or potentially mandate participation in the
AMDAR program, would see the benefits to aviation as well as broader socio-economic
benefits outlined above.
Other stakeholders, including Data Service Providers (who collect the AMDAR data from
aircraft and relay the data to airline or met service data processing centers), Governments
(who can participate directly by supporting the NMHSs’ participation and using their reports,
as well as promoting participation and the program’s benefits more broadly), and other
Funders (who can provide grants or other financial support to help initiate, operate, or raise
awareness of benefits of the AMDAR program) will also see benefits from the program, as
described in previous chapters.
Given the cost-effectiveness of the AMDAR system, and the broad range of socio-economic
benefits that can be realized by improved weather forecasting (enabled by AMDAR data),
there is great potential for public, private and third sector organizations to work together – with
an NMHS sitting in the middle of the network, benefiting from participation and raising its own
profile while contributing more broadly to its country or region.
11
The WMO is therefore looking to partner with National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services that can support the expansion of the AMDAR program into the data-sparse regions
described above, including Africa, Asia and Latin America.
The WMO is also seeking partners who can support the program’s expansion. Organizations
whose operations or constituents may be affected by weather or climate-related events or
patterns can directly support NMHSs in their participation in the program. Partners can utilize
AMDAR-enabled weather reports, and work with NMHSs to develop new or optimized products
to better meet their needs. This could include organizations in sectors such as agriculture,
aviation, health, utilities, disaster risk reduction, and environmental protection. Partners can
also support NMHSs in developing the technical capabilities required to set up and operate
new AMDAR programs.
Partners could be introduced to the NMHSs to:



Support directly in the technical development of a new country or regional AMDAR
program, such as the setup of regional data processing centers and/ or developing
requisite communications infrastructure
Build the capacity of the NMHS to operate an AMDAR program, through process design,
implementation, and talent/skills development
Collaborate with the NMHS to develop new or customized weather reports
The WMO will work with NMHs to identify their needs, and ensure they have the support to
participate fully in the AMDAR program.
CONTACT INFORMATION
To find out more about the AMDAR program in your region and how you can get involved,
contact your regional WMO office (details included below).
12