Supplementary material
Table S1. Model-averaged coefficient estimates (95% unconditional CI) for variables in a linear model
assessing the influence of previous climatic and foraging condition on caribou neonate mass at birth,
Newfoundland, 1979-2013. Importance represents the cumulative AICc weight of models including a
given variable.
Variables
Estimate
Importance
Intercept
11.635 (8.166, 15.104)
1.00
Summer(t-5) GDD10
-0.764 (-1.374, -0.155)
0.99
Summer(t-5) rain
-0.530 (-1.129, 0.069)
0.99
Ave NDVI(t-5)
4.236 (0.493, 7.979)
0.80
Winter(t-5) temperature
0.184 (-0.153, 0.522)
0.24
Winter(t-5) snow
0.071 (-0.682, 0.824)
0.24
Table S2. Cause-specific hazard ratios for bear, coyotes, and other causes (95% CI) for variables in the top
causes-specific Cox Proportional Hazard models for caribou neonate survival, Newfoundland, during the
population decline period, including all monitored individuals. Hazards ratios >1 indicate increase in risk
while hazard ratios <1 indicate reduction in risk. Statistically significant hazards ratios (α=0.05) are
indicated in bold.
Variable
Black bear
Coyote
Other causes
Spring GDD10
0.391 (0.176, 0.867)
1.182 (0.593, 2.359)
1.189 (0.617, 2.293)
Spring rain
0.591 (0.440, 0.795)
1.289 (0.954, 1.740)
0.989 (0.775, 1.262)
Spring rate
>100 (<0.000, > 100)
5.424 (0, >100)
0.013 (0.000, >100)
Winter snow
0.528 (0.364, 0.767)
1.053 (0.739, 1.502)
1.180 (0.848, 1.641)
Winter(t-5) temperature
3.297 (1.735, 6.267)
1.173 (0.665, 2.068)
0.989 (0.586, 1.668)
Winter(t-5) snow
0.690 (0.213, 2.242)
1.852 (0.602, 5.695)
0.471 (0.158, 1.405)
Summer(t-5) GDD10
0.541 (0.173, 1.688)
5.744 (1.966, 16.78)
3.188 (1.103, 9.212)
Summer(t-5) rain
1.055 (0.359, 3.099)
2.626 (0.916, 7.529)
1.710 (0.610, 4.793)
AveNDVI(t-5)
0.000 (0.000, 1.001)
25.537 (0.003, >100)
0.000 (0.000, 0.015)
Table S3. Cause-specific hazard ratios of neonatal caribou for bear, coyotes, and other causes (95% CI) in
Newfoundland (1979-2013). Estimates are based on the top cause-specific Cox Proportional Hazard
models for the population increase and decline periods. The periods of increase and decline were
delineated using 1998 as a single year cut-off. Hazards ratios >1 indicate increase in risk while hazard
ratios <1 indicate reduced risk.
Variable
Black bear
Coyote
Other causes
Period of increase
Winter(t-5) temperature
0.582 (0.428, 0.79)
1.065 (0.84, 1.351)
Winter(t-5) snow
0.736 (0.201, 2.687)
6.022 (1.951, 18.59)
Summer(t-5) GDD10
0.213 (0.053, 0.859)
1.22 (0.553, 2.691)
Summer(t-5) rain
6.065 (2.112, 17.416)
0.133 (0.046, 0.384)
Period of decline
Spring GDD10
0.301 (0.135, 0.672)
0.897 (0.459, 1.753)
0.706 (0.371, 1.341)
Spring rain
0.551 (0.409, 0.744)
1.306 (0.954, 1.788)
0.925 (0.725, 1.182)
Spring rate of green-up
>100 (0, >100)
0.007 (0, >100)
0 (0, 4.063)
Winter snow
0.588 (0.412, 0.84)
1.111 (0.789, 1.566)
1.114 (0.81, 1.531)
Winter(t-5) temperature
2.354 (1.245, 4.45)
0.732 (0.429, 1.248)
0.707 (0.42, 1.19)
Winter(t-5) snow
0.395 (0.178, 0.877)
1.123 (0.561, 2.246)
0.284 (0.155, 0.52)
Summer(t-5) GDD10
0.224 (0.077, 0.653)
1.907 (0.689, 5.274)
1.07 (0.399, 2.868)
Summer(t-5) rain
0.723 (0.278, 1.879)
3.017 (1.104, 8.243)
1.627 (0.694, 3.815)
AvgNDVI(t-5)
0 (0, 8.812)
1.022 (0, 15993.355)
0 (0, 0)
Table S4. Cause-specific hazard ratios of neonatal caribou for bear, coyotes, and other causes (95% CI) in
Newfoundland (1980-2010). Estimates are based on the top cause-specific Cox Proportional Hazard
models for the population increase and decline periods. The period of increase was limited to 1980-1990
and the period of decline to 2000-2010. Hazards ratios >1 indicate increase in risk while hazard ratios <1
indicate reduced risk.
Variable
Black bear
Coyote
Other causes
Period of increase
Winter(t-5) temperature
0.46 (0.201, 1.049)
>100 (0, >100)
Winter(t-5) snow
2.536 (0.264, 24.404)
>100 (0, >100)
Summer(t-5) GDD10
0.166 (0.015, 1.815)
0 (0, >100)
Summer(t-5) rain
4.404 (0.384, 50.471)
0 (0, >100)
Period of decline
Spring GDD10
0.336 (0.056, 2.003)
0.896 (0.176, 4.557)
4.397 (0.991, 19.514)
Spring rain
0.838 (0.476, 1.475)
1.073 (0.645, 1.783)
0.984 (0.651, 1.489)
Spring rate of green-up
>100 (0, >100)
0 (0, >100)
>100 (0.004, >100)
Winter snow
0.684 (0.398, 1.177)
1.092 (0.61, 1.953)
1.223 (0.748, 1.999)
Winter(t-5) temperature
8.41 (2.205, 32.082)
2.507 (0.658, 9.552)
0.867 (0.316, 2.378)
Winter(t-5) snow
0.538 (0.029, 9.872)
1.09 (0.072, 16.53)
0.315 (0.021, 4.737)
Summer(t-5) GDD10
0.048 (0.001, 1.585)
5.992 (0.12, 300.178)
1.634 (0.056, 47.536)
Summer(t-5) rain
4.037 (0.314, 51.924)
1.373 (0.113, 16.668)
5.963 (0.682, 52.153)
AvgNDVI(t-5)
0 (0, 55363.432)
0 (0, 7403.754)
0.004 (0, 299299.158)
Table S5. Locality of the Environment Canada weather stations used for the estimation of weather
variables for each herds, 1979-2013.
Herd
Corner Brook Lakes
Gaff Topsails
Grey River
Gros Morne
Lapoile
Middle Ridge
Mount Peyton
Northern Peninsula
Pot Hill
Sandy Lake
Years monitored Locality
1994-1997
Deer Lake
2003-2004
Exploit Dam
1979-1992
Exploit Dam
1993-1996
Deer Lake
1985-2012
Stephenville
1983-2013
Bay d’Espoir
1993-2003
Grand Falls
2008-2012
Plum Point
1980-1982
Grand Falls
1982-1984
Exploit Dam
Figure S1: Pairwise correlation matrix of climatic variables potentially included in survival model of
neonatal caribou survival.
Figure S2: Time-series of climatic variables from six different weather stations used to estimate climate
for the different herds and retained in the list of candidate models of neonatal caribou survival.
Figure S3: Time-series of NDVI related variables estimated for the 10 different herds retained in the list
of candidate models of neonatal caribou survival.
Figure S4: Cause-specific hazard ratios illustrating the relationship between average daily climatic
variables and neonatal caribou survival for bear and coyotes in Newfoundland (1979-2013). Estimates
are based on the top cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models for the population increase and
decline periods. Only significant variables are presented.