Wigganson Matandiko (student no: -02031904
Biol 525 – 001 Research Methods
Wigganson Matandiko, Montana State University
Supervisor: Dr. Scott Creel, Senior Lecturer, Department of Ecology
Co-Supervisor:
Project Duration: September 2013- December 2015; May –June 2016; May-June 2017
Budget:

Wigganson Matandiko (student no: -02031904
Biol 525 – 001 Research Methods
Project Summary
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Again, the first sentence must indicate in general what the study is about, and the conclusion of the first
paragraph should indicate more specifically what the study will focus on with some additional particulars such as what species, or what location, or what measurement method.
Introduction
Recent studies and publication have shown that predation risks can play significantly negative impact on prey species such as elk in the Greater Yellowstone Park. A conservative view has been that predators limit prey through direct killing. Research finding has however shown that it is not the only factor at play, but those anti-predator responses mounted by prey have costs such as lowered survival, growth and reproduction. The author in the publication entitled “Toward a predictive theory of risk effects: Hypothesis for prey attributes and compen satory mortality” advocates that stronger tests of these hypotheses will require continued development of methods to identify and quantify the fitness costs of anti-predator responses in wild animals 1 . In this study we seek to explore alternative approaches to testing the hypothesis by taking into consideration the potential interaction between predation risk, food limitation and disease affecting both predator and prey. The study will focus on lions ( panthera leo ), hyenas ( crocuta crocuta ) and African wild dogs ( lycaon pictus ) of three National Parks in eastern, central and western Zambia. The measurements of interest are number of prey species successfully hunted within carnivore home ranges, prey density (with estimates of age structure), fecal glucocorticoid metabolites 2 , fecal chlorophyll trends 3 , alteration in foraging patterns and other causes of mortalities within and in the vicinity of carnivore home ranges.

Wigganson Matandiko (student no: -02031904
Biol 525 – 001 Research Methods
Then describe the broad theory or scientific question or management question (you may be working on a small piece, but how does that fit into the larger picture?) and develop from there. Typical development sequence would be:
1.
begin with the scientific big question and/or the pressing management question
2.
place the question in a big-picture scientific context, and then drill down, pointing out what is known, what is questionable, and what is not known, along the way
3.
restate your own research plans in slightly more detail than in the summary, emphasizing what is unique, or distinctive, or at least more promising about your approach
4.
restate overall goals, objectives, and expected results
5.
explain how your results will be useable to guide management decisions or answer a central scientific question
Identified mounted responses to predation risk by the same author include:- i).change of group size in order to dilute direct predation risk. He affirms “the risk that at least one herd member will be killed, increases as herd size increases and that individual risk, decreases as herd size increases”. However it is also important note that the risk factor for communicable disease transmission also increases as animals congr egate. As the adage says, “birds of the same farther flock together”. The animals will tend to share common grazing ranges and watering point. So while combating risks of predation, a subtle spread of disease may be enhanced. This is one level where disease can interact with predation risk. At the same time, if this is happening in the dry season when forage is scarce, the herd usually depletes the immediate available resource and the move on in search for better pastures. This often leads them further away from watering points. It is often the case that the very young and old succumb to exhaustion and lack of water. Such effects resulting in mortalities are often reported in the drier months of the year. ii).The degree of forage specialization as a strategy against predation can be seen in some bulk grazers that target the grass plains to improve their visual acuity in detecting predators but others do the opposite by going in the underbrush and forested area where they cannot easily be noticed. The strategy is least effective in the dry season when most deciduous trees shed their foliage. iii). Increased serum glucocorticoid that can subsequently be detected in fecal matter as indicator of stress (Fecal glucocorticoid [fGC]). This however was found with limitation

Wigganson Matandiko (student no: -02031904
Biol 525 – 001 Research Methods due to progesterone (pregnancy hormone) that equally yield metabolites resembling fGC and extruded in fecal droppings. If GC concentrations increase due to stress, it must follow that any stressor outside risk of predation may increase the serum level.
The question of interest is whether the changes in concentration are comparable to animals with relatively low stress. To elucidate this fact, a carefully selected control group of the same species in fenced game ranches with relatively low stress levels will have to be tested for fGC and compare statistically the difference. iv). Vigilance and fitness is also recognized in anti-predator response. The earlier is said to be affected by age, sex, body condition position within the group and local environmental conditions 1 .
I wish to quantify to some degree the effect of such responses (either directly or indirectly) by looking at mortalities of both predator and prey in a specific home range delineated by the predators. Two main goals involving fixed transect counts in predator range versus non predator range and investigation of the causes of mortality due to disease, predator and food limitation. It is suspected that predation risk is capable of triggering a cascade that can lead to disease and food limitation. It holds that food limitation can also trigger disease and predation risk leading to the weaker being hunted first.
Absence of predators may have a desirable effect in a short to medium terms in that prey population may become incremental. However, over a long period this tends to have deleterious effect as a result of unchecked increase of prey density that results in over foraging (or over grazing – food limitation). This in itself is a recipe for disease outbreaks.
The designated areas for legal hunting and harvest are game management zones acting as buffer around the National Parks. As rule, no hunting is supposed to be carried out within the Parks. The research findings will help management decision in dealing with disease, over stocking and food limitation. This will also be the basis for animal translocation and reintroduction in depleted National Parks. And even though

Wigganson Matandiko (student no: -02031904
Biol 525 – 001 Research Methods from a conservation point of view, feed supplementation is not advocated, reduction of animal habitat range may demand that some areas of the Parks be supplemented.
Failure to this, advocacy for range expansion through land reclamation is to be engaged followed by prevention of further encroachments to National Parks.
Approach:
(Some formats will subsume design and methods into approach; other formats will treat those as subsections or sections.)
Begin by restating the question.
If the question is not directly about some observable(s), you must expand the question into a set of hypotheses, where each hypothesis leads to observable consequences which can discriminate among the hypotheses. The set of hypotheses should be exhaustive. The hypotheses should be mutually exclusive.
Can predator risk lead to prey anti-predator response resulting in interaction involving food limitation and disease? If so in what way can we quantify the response to predation either directly or indirectly? To address these questions the research is designed to take inventory of wildlife numbers in perceived large carnivore ranges by taking transects from previous animal census counts. This is in a bid to establish abundance or absence of prey species. Upon confirmation of their presence, home ranges for three carnivore species (Lion, hyena and African wild dog) will be determined by satellite collars fixed on representatives of two lion prides, two wild dog parks and three hyena clans. We will take advantage of the collaring exercise by Collection of serum samples, whole blood, hair, and dung samples that will be stored for baseline survey for disease, carbon isotope and genetic identification.
The second aspect of the research study is to assess the response to predation by the frequency with which prey is found within the home ranges of the selected carnivores.
Predation response by observing fecal glucocorticoid metabolites in some studies have not yielded results to warrant stress levels due to predation 2 . Moreover it has been noted by the same authors that pregnant females tend to have high yields of the metabolite due to progesterone whose metabolites resemble that of glucocorticoids and have an affinity for serum binding globulins. None the less the metabolites will still be

Wigganson Matandiko (student no: -02031904
Biol 525 – 001 Research Methods investigated after careful consideration of the likely calving seasons and avoid fecal sample collection in the months of suspected pregnancy. Reproducing the findings reported by other researchers in a different environmental setting will augment the results of other researchers. The difference here is that the control group will come from the equivalent species found in game ranches where there is notably no risk to predation and low external stressors.
The third aspect of this research will look at changes in the diet of both wild carnivores and their prey to be investigated through assessment of fecal and grass chlorophyll concentration using the technique applied by Christainsen et al (2009). The question of interest is whether food limitation is having an effect on both carnivore and prey. The study will take a spatial scale in that the browse and grass ranges of the landscape will be assessed to note the months of scarcity in contrast to the months of abundance. The landscapes in Zambia have a typical three season phase delineated as the rain season, the dry and the cold seasons. By experience, we know the months when browse and grazing grass is scarce. In such months prey tend to travel longer distances in search of forage. However, a pattern of movement between feed grounds and watering points is easily noticeable. In the rain season the weather is favorable to an abundance of plant regrowth and hence acts to limit the long distance movements between feed grounds and water (natural water catchment areas tend to be full in the rain season). The analysis of isotopes of stable carbon ( 12 C, 13 C, 14 C) will be investigated to trace back shifts in diet on the short and long term as described by the method of Robert H. Tykot
(2006) and posting on the Wikipedia website (2010). Of interest also is the ‘elasticity’ of the carnivore home range in response to availability of food resource, does it remain static or is there periodic oscillation between expansion and shrinkage? What does it mean when there is expansion; can it be interpreted in terms of expanding carnivore population or a sign of food scarcity such that carnivores have to spread in search of prey? What is the effect on such survival instincts on both predator and prey? In the unlikely hood of shrinkage of home ranges, what would the carnivores be subsisting on?
This might lead to a theory of survival on the die offs due to disease or starvation.
Scavenging may be a function of inability to hunt in some predators due to a variety of

Wigganson Matandiko (student no: -02031904
Biol 525 – 001 Research Methods reasons one of which is lack of readily available prey for hunting. The implication of scavenging on carcasses whose cause of death is unknown is in itself a risk that might lead to the demise of carnivores.
Finally, reports of mortalities will be collated with accompanying GPS coordinates from wildlife police officers, tour operators, and the hunting fraternity. The concept is to construct mortality maps of preyed species that will be comparable to the carnivore home ranges and with the prevailing vegetation. This is for ascertaining prey utilization by carnivores in the three categorized seasons. By analyzing the numbers preyed and other non- preyed mortalities we will may come to seek logical explanation to the following pertinent questions: i) When prey is most abundant within the carnivore home range and why ii) The frequency with which they are preyed upon in the three seasons and carnivore home range. iii) Why prey have to balance between risk of predation and survival (food and water availability). iv) How and why some disease outbreak is possibly precipitated by predation risk. v) Synchrony variation in carnivore home range size with the seasonal change. vi) Why there might be need for translocation and reintroduction of some species in some National Parks. vii) Evaluation of fGC as stress indicator in high predation risk versus the low risk.

Wigganson Matandiko (student no: -02031904
Biol 525 – 001 Research Methods