Appendix S1. Highly-cited literature reviewed for each theme across physical, chemical, and biological disciplines. Benthic communities Coral reef Alvarez-Filip L, Dulvy NK, Gill JA, Côté IM, Watkinson AR (2009) Flattening of Caribbean coral reefs: region-wide declines in architectural complexity. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences,276, 3019-3025. Anthony KRN, Kline DI, Diaz-Pulido G, Dove S, Hoegh-Guldberg O (2008) Ocean acidification causes bleaching and productivity loss in coral reef builders. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,105, 17442-17446. Bruno JF, Selig ER, Casey KS et al. (2007) Thermal stress and coral cover as drivers of coral disease outbreaks. PLoS Biology,5, 1220-1227. Cantin NE, Cohen AL, Karnauskas KB, Tarrant AM, Mccorkle DC (2010) Ocean warming slows coral growth in the central Red Sea. Science,329, 322-325. Carpenter KE, Abrar M, Aeby G et al. (2008) One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk from climate change and local impacts. Science,321, 560-563. Cohen AL, Mccorkle DC, De Putron S, Gaetani GA, Rose KA (2009) Morphological and compositional changes in the skeletons of new coral recruits reared in acidified seawater: Insights into the biomineralization response to ocean acidification. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems,10. Cooper TF, De'ath G, Fabricius KE, Lough JM (2008) Declining coral calcification in massive Porites in two nearshore regions of the northern Great Barrier Reef. Global Change Biology,14, 529-538. De'ath G, Fabricius KE, Sweatman H, Puotinen M (2012) From the Cover: The 27-year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,109, 17995-17999. De'ath G, Lough JM, Fabricius KE (2009) Declining coral calcification on the Great Barrier Reef. Science,323, 116-119. Diaz-Pulido G, Anthony KRN, Kline DI, Dove S, Hoegh-Guldberg O (2012) Interactions between ocean acidification and warming on the mortality and dissolution of coralline algae. Journal of Phycology,48, 32-39. Diaz-Pulido G, Gouezo M, Tilbrook B, Dove S, Anthony KRN (2011) High CO 2 enhances the competitive strength of seaweeds over corals. Ecology Letters,14, 156-162. Donner SD, Knutson TR, Oppenheimer M (2007) Model-based assessment of the role of humaninduced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,104, 5483-5488. Doropoulos C, Ward S, Diaz-Pulido G, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Mumby PJ (2012) Ocean acidification reduces coral recruitment by disrupting intimate larval-algal settlement interactions. Ecology Letters,15, 338-346. Eakin CM, Morgan JA, Heron SF et al. (2010) Caribbean corals in crisis: Record thermal stress, bleaching, and mortality in 2005. Plos One,5. Fabricius KE, Langdon C, Uthicke S et al. (2011) Losers and winners in coral reefs acclimatized to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. Nature Climate Change,1, 165-169. 1 Fine M, Tchernov D (2007) Scleractinian coral species survive and recover from decalcification. Science,315, 1811-1811. Form AU, Riebesell U (2012) Acclimation to ocean acidification during long-term CO 2 exposure in the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa. Global Change Biology,18, 843-853. Hendriks IE, Duarte CM, Álvarez M (2010) Vulnerability of marine biodiversity to ocean acidification: A meta-analysis. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science,86, 157-164. Jones AM, Berkelmans R, Van Oppen MJH, Mieog JC, Sinclair W (2008) A community change in the algal endosymbionts of a scleractinian coral following a natural bleaching event: field evidence of acclimatization. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences,275, 1359-1365. Kroeker KJ, Kordas RL, Crim RN, Singh GG (2010) Meta-analysis reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms. Ecology Letters,13, 1419-1434. Mcclanahan TR, Ateweberhan M, Graham NaJ, Wilson SK, Ruiz Sebastiàn C, Guillaume MMM, Bruggemann JH (2007a) Western Indian Ocean coral communities:bleaching responses and susceptibility to extinction. Marine Ecology Progress Series,337, 1-13. Mcclanahan TR, Ateweberhan M, Muhando C, Maina J, Mohammed SM (2007b) Effects of climate change and seawater temperature variation on coral bleaching and mortality. Ecological Monographs,77, 503-525. Mcculloch M, Falter J, Trotter J, Montagna P (2012) Coral resilience to ocean acidification and global warming through pH up-regulation. Nature Climate Change,2, 623-627. Mora C (2008) A clear human footprint in the coral reefs of the Caribbean. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences,275, 767-773. Rodolfo-Metalpa R, Houlbrèque F, Tambutté É et al. (2011) Coral and mollusc resistance to ocean acidification adversely affected by warming. Nature Climate Change,1, 308-312. Silverman J, Lazar B, Cao L, Caldeira K, Erez J (2009) Coral reefs may start dissolving when atmospheric CO2 doubles. Geophysical Research Letters,36, 1-5. Venn A, Tambutté E, Holcomb M, Allemand D, Tambutté S (2011) Live tissue imaging shows reef corals elevate pH under their calcifying tissue relative to seawater. Plos One,6. Webb AP, Kench PS (2010) The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: Evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central Pacific. Global and Planetary Change,72, 234-246. Wooldridge SA, Done TJ (2009) Improved water quality can ameliorate effects of climate change on corals. Ecological applications,19, 1492-1499. Yamano H, Sugihara K, Nomura K (2011) Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters,38. Kelp forest Byrnes JE, Reed DC, Cardinale BJ, Cavanaugh KC, Holbrook SJ, Schmitt RJ (2011) Climatedriven increases in storm frequency simplify kelp forest food webs. Global Change Biology,17, 2513-2524. Campbell AH, Harder T, Nielsen S, Kjelleberg S, Steinberg PD (2011) Climate change and disease: Bleaching of a chemically defended seaweed. Global Change Biology,17, 29582970. 2 Connell SD, Russell BD (2010) The direct effects of increasing CO2 and temperature on noncalcifying organisms: increasing the potential for phase shifts in kelp forests. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences,277, 1409-1415. Díez I, Muguerza N, Santolaria A, Ganzedo U, Gorostiaga JM (2012) Seaweed assemblage changes in the eastern Cantabrian Sea and their potential relationship to climate change. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science,99, 108-120. Falkenberg LJ, Russell BD, Connell SD (2012) Stability of strong species interactions resist the synergistic effects of local and global pollution in kelp forests. Plos One,7. Falkenberg LJ, Russell BD, Connell SD (2013) Contrasting resource limitations of marine primary producers: Implications for competitive interactions under enriched CO2 and nutrient regimes. Oecologia,172, 575-583. Fraser CI, Nikula R, Spencer HG, Waters JM (2009) Kelp genes reveal effects of subantarctic sea ice during the Last Glacial Maximum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,106, 3249-3253. Graham MH, Kinlan BP, Grosberg RK (2010) Post-glacial redistribution and shifts in productivity of giant kelp forests. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences,277, 399-406. Halpern BS, Cottenie K (2007) Little evidence for climate effects on local-scale structure and dynamics of California kelp forest communities. Global Change Biology,13, 236-251. Johnson CR, Banks SC, Barrett NS et al. (2011) Climate change cascades: Shifts in oceanography, species' ranges and subtidal marine community dynamics in eastern Tasmania. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology,400, 17-32. Ladah LB, Zertuche-González JA (2007) Survival of microscopic stages of a perennial kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) from the center and the southern extreme of its range in the Northern Hemisphere after exposure to simulated El Niño stress. Marine Biology,152, 677-686. Ling SD, Johnson CR, Frusher SD, Ridgway KR (2009) Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,106, 22341-22345. Matson PG, Edwards MS (2007) Effects of ocean temperature on the southern range limits of two understory kelps, Pterygophora californica and Eisenia arborea, at multiple lifestages. Marine Biology,151, 1941-1949. Müller R, Wiencke C, Bischof K (2008) Interactive effects of UV radiation and temperature on microstages of Laminariales (Phaeophyceae) from the Arctic and North Sea. Climate Research,37, 203-213. Parnell PE, Miller EF, Lennert-Cody CE, Dayton PK, Carter ML, Stebbins TD (2010) The response of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) in southern California to low-frequency climate forcing. Limnology and Oceanography,55, 2686-2702. Pehlke C, Bartsch I (2008) Changes in depth distribution and biomass of sublittoral seaweeds at Helgoland (North Sea) between 1970 and 2005. Climate Research,37, 135-147. Roleda MY, Morris JN, Mcgraw CM, Hurd CL (2012) Ocean acidification and seaweed reproduction: Increased CO 2 ameliorates the negative effect of lowered pH on meiospore germination in the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera (Laminariales, Phaeophyceae). Global Change Biology,18, 854-864. 3 Rothäusler E, Gómez I, Hinojosa IA, Karsten U, Tala F, Thiel M (2009) Effect of temperature and grazing on growth and reproduction of floating Macrocystis spp. (phaeophyceae) along a latitudinal gradient. Journal of Phycology,45, 547-559. Russell BD, Passarelli CA, Connell SD (2011) Forecasted Co 2 modifies the influence of light in shaping subtidal habitat. Journal of Phycology,47, 744-752. Russell BD, Thompson J-aI, Falkenberg LJ, Connell SD (2009) Synergistic effects of climate change and local stressors: CO2 and nutrient-driven change in subtidal rocky habitats. Global Change Biology,15, 2153-2162. Saunders MI, Metaxas A, Filgueira R (2010) Implications of warming temperatures for population outbreaks of a nonindigenous species (Membranipora membranacea, Bryozoa) in rocky subtidal ecosystems. Limnology and Oceanography,55, 1627-1642. Staehr PA, Wernberg T (2009) Physiological responses of ecklonia radiata (laminariales) to a latitudinal gradient in ocean temperature. Journal of Phycology,45, 91-99. Steinhoff FS, Wiencke C, Müller R, Bischof K (2008) Effects of ultraviolet radiation and temperature on the ultrastructure of zoospores of the brown macroalga Laminaria hyperborea. Plant Biology,10, 388-397. Swanson AK, Fox CH (2007) Altered kelp (Laminariales) phlorotannins and growth under elevated carbon dioxide and ultraviolet-B treatments can influence associated intertidal food webs. Global Change Biology,13, 1696-1709. Wernberg T, Goldberg N (2008) Short-term temporal dynamics of algal species in a subtidal kelp bed in relation to changes in environmental conditions and canopy biomass. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science,76, 265-272. Wernberg T, Smale DA, Tuya F et al. (2012) An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot. Nature Climate Change,5, 1-5. Wernberg T, Thomsen MS, Tuya F, Kendrick GA (2011) Biogenic habitat structure of seaweeds change along a latitudinal gradient in ocean temperature. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology,400, 264-271. Wernberg T, Thomsen MS, Tuya F, Kendrick GA, Staehr PA, Toohey BD (2010) Decreasing resilience of kelp beds along a latitudinal temperature gradient: Potential implications for a warmer future. Ecology Letters,13, 685-694. Mangroves Barr JG, Fuentes JD, Engel V, Zieman JC (2009) Physiological responses of red mangroves to the climate in the Florida Everglades. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences,114. Comeaux RS, Allison MA, Bianchi TS (2012) Mangrove expansion in the Gulf of Mexico with climate change: Implications for wetland health and resistance to rising sea levels. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science,96, 81-95. Ellison J, Zouh I (2012) Vulnerability to Climate Change of Mangroves: Assessment from Cameroon, Central Africa. Biology,1, 617-638. Eslami-Andargoli L, Dale P, Sipe N, Chaseling J (2009) Mangrove expansion and rainfall patterns in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, Australia. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science,85, 292-298. 4 Gilman E, Ellison J, Coleman R (2007a) Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,124, 105-130. Gilman E, Ellison J, Sauni I, Tuaumu S (2007b) Trends in surface elevations of American Samoa mangroves. Wetlands Ecology and Management,15, 391-404. Krauss KW, Cahoon DR, Allen JA, Ewel KC, Lynch JC, Cormier N (2010) Surface elevation change and susceptibility of different mangrove zones to sea-level rise on Pacific high islands of Micronesia. Ecosystems,13, 129-143. Krauss KW, From AS, Doyle TW, Barry MJ (2011) Sea-level rise and landscape change influence mangrove encroachment onto marsh in the Ten Thousand Islands region of Florida, USA. Journal of Coastal Conservation,15, 629-638. Luo Z, Sun OJ, Wang E, Ren H, Xu H (2010) Modeling Productivity in Mangrove Forests as Impacted by Effective Soil Water Availability and Its Sensitivity to Climate Change Using Biome-BGC. Ecosystems,13, 949-965. Mckee KL, Rooth JE (2008) Where temperate meets tropical: Multi-factorial effects of elevated CO2, nitrogen enrichment, and competition on a mangrove-salt marsh community. Global Change Biology,14, 971-984. Méndez-Alonzo R, López-Portillo J, Rivera-Monroy VH (2008) Latitudinal variation in leaf and tree traits of the mangrove avicennia germinans (avicenniaceae) in the central region of the Gulf of Mexico. Biotropica,40, 449-456. Ross MS, Ruiz PL, Sah JP, Hanan EJ (2009) Chilling damage in a changing climate in coastal landscapes of the subtropical zone: A case study from south Florida. Global Change Biology,15, 1817-1832. Sanders CJ, Smoak JM, Naidu AS, Araripe DR, Sanders LM, Patchineelam SR (2010) Mangrove forest sedimentation and its reference to sea level rise, Cananeia, Brazil. Environmental Earth Sciences,60, 1291-1301. Sanders CJ, Smoak JM, Naidu AS, Patchineelam SR (2008) Recent Sediment Accumulation in a Mangrove Forest and Its Relevance to Local Sea-Level Rise (Ilha Grande, Brazil). Journal of Coastal Research,242, 533-536. Rocky/sandy bottom Bibby R, Cleall-Harding P, Rundle S, Widdicombe S, Spicer J (2007) Ocean acidification disrupts induced defences in the intertidal gastropod Littorina littorea. Biology Letters,3, 699-701. Bibby R, Widdicombe S, Parry H, Spicer J, Pipe R (2008) Effects of ocean acidification on the immune response of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis. Aquatic Biology,2, 67-74. Byrne M, Ho M, Selvakumaraswamy P, Nguyen HD, Dworjanyn SA, Davis AR (2009) Temperature, but not pH, compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences,276, 1883-1888. Cummings V, Hewitt J, Van Rooyen A et al. (2011) Ocean acidification at high latitudes: Potential effects on functioning of the antarctic bivalve Laternula elliptica. Plos One,6. Dickinson GH, Ivanina AV, Matoo OB et al. (2012) Interactive effects of salinity and elevated CO2 levels on juvenile eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica. Journal of Experimental Biology,215, 29-43. 5 Gazeau F, Quiblier C, Jansen JM, Gattuso JP, Middelburg JJ, Heip CHR (2007) Impact of elevated CO2 on shellfish calcification. Geophysical Research Letters,34, 1-5. Hall-Spencer JM, Rodolfo-Metalpa R, Martin S et al. (2008) Volcanic carbon dioxide vents show ecosystem effects of ocean acidification. Nature,454, 96-99. 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Kuffner IB, Andersson AJ, Jokiel PL, Rodgers KUS, Mackenzie FT (2008) Decreased abundance of crustose coralline algae due to ocean acidification. Nature Geoscience,1, 114-117. Lima FP, Ribeiro PA, Queiroz N, Hawkins SJ, Santos AM (2007) Do distributional shifts of northern and southern species of algae match the warming pattern? Global Change Biology,13, 2592-2604. Ling SD, Johnson CR, Ridgway K, Hobday AJ, Haddon M (2009) Climate-driven range extension of a sea urchin: Inferring future trends by analysis of recent population dynamics. Global Change Biology,15, 719-731. Martin S, Gattuso JP (2009) Response of Mediterranean coralline algae to ocean acidification and elevated temperature. Global Change Biology,15, 2089-2100. Miles H, Widdicombe S, Spicer JI, Hall-Spencer J (2007) Effects of anthropogenic seawater acidification on acid-base balance in the sea urchin Psammechinus miliaris. Marine Pollution Bulletin,54, 89-96. Parker LM, Ross PM, Apos, Connor WA (2009) The effect of ocean acidification and temperature on the fertilization and embryonic development of the Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata (Gould 1850). Global Change Biology,15, 2123-2136. Parker LM, Ross PM, Apos, Connor WA (2011) Populations of the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata, vary in response to ocean acidification. Marine Biology,158, 689697. Parker LM, Ross PM, O'connor WA, Borysko L, Raftos DA, Pörtner HO (2012) Adult exposure influences offspring response to ocean acidification in oysters. Global Change Biology,18, 82-92. Poloczanska ES, Hawkins SJ, Southward AJ, Burrows MT (2008) Modeling the response of populations of competing species to climate change. Ecology,89, 3138-3149. Ries JB, Cohen AL, Mccorkle DC (2009) Marine calcifiers exhibit mixed responses to CO2induced ocean acidification. Geology,37, 1131-1134. Rodolfo-Metalpa R, Houlbrèque F, Tambutté É et al. (2011) Coral and mollusc resistance to ocean acidification adversely affected by warming. Nature Climate Change,1, 308-312. 6 Sorte CJB, Williams SL, Carlton JT (2010) Marine range shifts and species introductions: Comparative spread rates and community impacts. Global Ecology and Biogeography,19, 303-316. Thomsen J, Gutowska MA, Saphörster J et al. (2010) Calcifying invertebrates succeed in a naturally CO2-rich coastal habitat but are threatened by high levels of future acidification. Biogeosciences,7, 3879-3891. Thomsen J, Melzner F (2010) Moderate seawater acidification does not elicit long-term metabolic depression in the blue mussel Mytilus edulis. Marine Biology,157, 2667-2676. Wernberg T, Smale DA, Tuya F et al. (2012) An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot. Nature Climate Change,5, 1-5. Wethey DS, Woodin SA, Hilbish TJ, Jones SJ, Lima FP, Brannock PM (2011) Response of intertidal populations to climate: Effects of extreme events versus long term change. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology,400, 132-144. Wood HL, Spicer JI, Widdicombe S (2008) Ocean acidification may increase calcification rates, but at a cost. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences,275, 1767-1773. Wootton JT, Pfister CA, Forester JD (2008) Dynamic patterns and ecological impacts of declining ocean pH in a high-resolution multi-year dataset. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,105, 18848-18853. Seagrass Alexandre A, Silva J, Buapet P, Björk M, Santos R (2012) Effects of CO2 enrichment on photosynthesis, growth, and nitrogen metabolism of the seagrass zostera noltii. Ecology and evolution,2, 2625-2635. Arnold T, Mealey C, Leahey H, Miller AW, Hall-Spencer JM, Milazzo M, Maers K (2012) Ocean Acidification and the Loss of Phenolic Substances in Marine Plants. Plos One,7, e35107-e35107. Cardoso PG, Raffaelli D, Pardal MA (2008) The impact of extreme weather events on the seagrass Zostera noltii and related Hydrobia ulvae population. Marine Pollution Bulletin,56, 483-492. Collier CJ, Uthicke S, Waycott M (2011) Thermal tolerance of two seagrass species at contrasting light levels: Implications for future distribution in the Great Barrier Reef. Limnology and Oceanography,56, 2200-2210. Diaz-Almela E, Marbà N, Duarte CM (2007) Consequences of Mediterranean warming events in seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) flowering records. Global Change Biology,13, 224-235. Díaz-Almela E, Marbà N, Martínez R, Santiago R, Duarte CM (2009) Seasonal dynamics of Posidonia oceanica in Magalluf Bay (Mallorca, Spain): Temperature effects on seagrass mortality. Limnology and Oceanography,54, 2170-2182. Ehlers A, Worm B, Reusch TBH (2008) Importance of genetic diversity in eelgrass Zostera marina for its resilience to global warming. 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