Waste
emissions projections
2014–15
August 2015
Published by the Department of the Environment.
www.environment.gov.au
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Executive summary
Key points
• Emissions from waste were 2 per cent of Australia’s preliminary 2013–14 national greenhouse gas inventory, at
13 Mt CO2-e.
• Over the period 2013–14 to 2019–20, emissions from waste in the 2014–15 Projections are lower than in the 2013
Projections because methane capture is expected to be higher.
• Emissions from waste are projected to be:
– 14 Mt CO2-e in 2019–20, a decrease of 17 per cent on 1999–2000
– 16 Mt CO2-e in 2029–30, a decrease of 5 per cent on 1999–2000
– 17 Mt CO2-e in 2034–35, around the same emissions level as 1999–2000.
• Waste generation is expected to increase as a result of population growth and economic growth.
• Recycling is expected to increase as a result of state government waste diversion policies.
• The projections do not take account of abatement from Emissions Reduction Fund projects commenced from 1
July 2014 onwards; such projects would be expected to lead to increased methane capture from landfills.
• Emissions from solid waste accounted for 78 per cent of the emissions from waste in 2013–14. Emissions from
wastewater accounted for 22 per cent. Inorganic waste has not been projected because it does not produce
emissions.
Throughout this report:
1. Totals may not sum due to rounding.
2. Percentages have been calculated prior to rounding.
3. Years in charts and tables are financial years ending in the stated year.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
2
Baseline projections
• Without taking account of new abatement from the Emissions Reduction Fund, emissions from waste are
projected to reach 17 Mt CO2-e by 2034–35. The projections show an increase of 8 per cent over the period 2013–
141 to 2019–20, 24 per cent over the period 2013–14 to 2029–30, and 30 per cent over the period 2013–14 to
2034–35.
• Population growth is expected to lead to increases in the number of people generating waste and wastewater, and
projected income growth is expected to lead to increases in per person consumption of goods and services and
hence per person generation of waste.
• State government waste diversion policies are expected to lead to reductions in the proportion of waste sent to
landfill through increased recycling.
• Projected growth in industrial activity is expected to lead to increases in industrial wastewater and associated
emissions.
Figure 1 Waste emissions 1989–90 to 2034–35
Sources: Hyder Consulting 2014, DoE 2015b, DoE analysis.
1
The most recent estimates of Australian emissions are the preliminary estimates of 2013-14 from the September quarterly release of the
national greenhouse gas inventory (DoE 2015b).
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
3
Table 1 Baseline waste emissions, key years
2000
2020
2030
2035
Increase on
Increase on
Increase on
2000
Mt CO2-e
2000
Mt CO2-e
2000
Mt CO2-e
Mt CO2-e
Solid waste
14
11
-19%
13
-8%
13
-3%
Wastewater
3
3
-8%
3
7%
4
15%
Total
17
14
-17%
16
-5%
17
0.1%
Sources: Hyder Consulting 2014, DoE 2015b, DoE analysis.
Impact of measures
• Abatement from the Carbon Farming Initiative and a ‘real 20 per cent’ Large-scale Renewable Energy Target2 equal
to 27,000 Gigawatt hours of renewable electricity generation has been accounted for in the 2014–15 waste
projections.
• Projections of abatement from Emissions Reduction Fund projects commenced from 1 July 2014 onwards have not
been included to avoid disclosing potentially market sensitive information, and because the safeguard element of
the Fund has yet to be decided.
• The Government will consider including estimates of abatement in future projections if it is possible to do so
without reducing the effectiveness of the Emissions Reduction Fund auctions.
Changes from the 2013 Projections
• From 2013–14 to 2019–20, emissions in the 2014–15 Projections are expected to be 9 Mt CO2-e lower than in the
2013 Projections. In 2019–20, emissions in the 2014–15 Projections are expected to be 0.7 Mt CO2-e lower than in
the 2013 Projections.
• The difference between the 2013 and 2014–15 Projections of emissions from waste is due to higher assumed
methane capture under Carbon Farming Initiative projects, and differing assumptions about the continuation of
these projects following the repeal of the carbon tax.
• The fall in projected emissions between the 2013 and 2014–15 Projections would have been greater, except:
– per person waste generation is expected to be higher than in the 2013 Projections
– recycling is expected to be lower than in the 2013 Projections because state government waste diversion
policies are not expected to be as effective as previously assumed.
Table of Contents
2
The recent legislated change to set the Largescale Renewable Energy Target to 33,000 GWh is only expected to have a small effect on emissions
from waste, and hence has not been accounted for in the projection.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
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Executive summary .................................................................................................................................... 2
Key points ................................................................................................................................................................. 2
Baseline projections ............................................................................................................................................. 3
Impact of measures ............................................................................................................................................... 4
Changes from the 2013 Projections ................................................................................................................ 4
1.0
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 5
2.0
Projections results ......................................................................................................................... 9
3.0
Sensitivity analysis ..................................................................................................................... 13
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2.1
2.2
2.3
Sources of emissions from waste ........................................................................................................ 6
Recent trends—national greenhouse gas inventory.................................................................... 6
Projections scenarios .............................................................................................................................. 7
Outline of methodology .......................................................................................................................... 8
Trends in the waste projections .......................................................................................................... 9
Solid waste................................................................................................................................................. 11
Wastewater ............................................................................................................................................... 11
Appendix A
Measures ..................................................................................................................... 15
Appendix B
Changes from the 2013 Projections ................................................................... 16
Appendix D
References ................................................................................................................... 19
Figures
Figure 1
Waste emissions 1989–90 to 2034–35 ......................................................................... 3
Figure 2
Waste emissions by sector 1989–90 to 2013–14 ..................................................... 7
Figure 3
Projected annual average change in waste emissions ......................................... 10
Figure 4
Solid waste emissions 1989–90 to 2034–35............................................................ 11
Figure 5
Wastewater emissions 1989–90 to 2034–35 ......................................................... 12
Figure 6
High and low emissions sensitivity analysis ........................................................... 13
Tables
Table 1
Baseline waste emissions, key years............................................................................... 4
Table 2
Sources of waste emissions ................................................................................................ 6
Table 3
Projections scenarios ........................................................................................................... 7
Table 4
Projected waste emissions, key years ............................................................................ 9
Table 5
Waste sensitivity analysis, key years ........................................................................... 14
Table 6
Changes between the 2013 and 2014–15 Projections ........................................... 16
Table 7
Population assumptions ................................................................................................... 17
Table 8
Municipal solid waste diversion assumptions .......................................................... 18
1.0 Introduction
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
5
The 2014–15 waste projections are a full update of the 2013 waste projections. They are based on research by
Hyder Consulting (Hyder 2014), and new forecasts of population growth and industry output have been incorporated
by the Department of the Environment.
1.1 Sources of emissions from waste
Greenhouse gas emissions from waste are defined in the national greenhouse gas inventory as per Table 2. The 2014–
15 waste projections are consistent with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
Emissions from plant and machinery used at waste facilities are counted towards direct combustion emissions.
Emissions from the incineration of waste for electricity generation and heat, and the emissions from electricity used at
waste facilities, are counted under electricity generation. Waste which does not generate emissions, such as inorganic
construction and demolition waste, is not included in the projections.
Table 2 Sources of waste emissions
Source
Description
Solid waste (landfill)
Methane emissions from the anaerobic decomposition of organic materials in
landfill. Solid waste in landfill can continue to generate greenhouse gases for
more than 50 years.
Domestic and
commercial wastewater
Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the decomposition and treatment of
human wastes, for example, through the sewage system.
Industrial wastewater
Methane emissions from the treatment of industrial wastewater.
Biological treatment of
solid waste (composting)
Methane emissions from anaerobic decomposition of organic materials in
composting facilities.
Incineration
Carbon dioxide emissions from oxidation of carbon originating from fossil fuel
sources during combustion of waste in controlled incineration facilities.
1.2 Recent trends—national greenhouse gas inventory
Total emissions from waste in 2013–14 are estimated to have been 13 Mt CO2-e; 2 per cent of the national
greenhouse gas inventory. Figure 2 shows that over the period 1989–90 to 2013–14, emissions from waste fell by
37 per cent, although emissions displayed some variability. The decrease in emissions was due to increases in waste
diversion (in particular paper recycling) and growth in methane capture at landfills. Emissions fell sharply in 2012–13
under the carbon tax, due to increases in methane capture.
Industrial wastewater and domestic and commercial wastewater emissions remained relatively steady over the period
1999–2000 to 2013–14, decreasing by less than 0.1 Mt CO2-e and 0.3 Mt CO2-e respectively. Drops in emissions from
wastewater between 1998–99 and 2000–01 and between 2010–11 and 2011–12 can be attributed to the installation
of methane capture equipment at a small number of large wastewater processing facilities.
Most waste emissions come from solid waste disposed at landfills, domestic and commercial wastewater, and
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
6
industrial wastewater. Waste incineration and composting also produce a small amount of emissions (less than
0.1 Mt CO2-e in 2012–13).
Figure 2
Waste emissions by sector 1989–90 to 2013–14
Sources: Hyder Consulting 2014, DoE 2015b, DoE analysis.
1.3 Projections scenarios
The baseline scenario has been developed on the basis of current information regarding the outlook for waste. The
Renewable Energy Target, state and territory government waste diversion policies, and Carbon Farming Initiative
projects eligible to transition to the Emissions Reduction Fund have been accounted for. Projections of abatement
from Emissions Reduction Fund projects commenced from 1 July 2014 onwards have not been included for the
reasons outlined above. Further detail on the treatment of policies and measures can be found in Appendix A.
High and low emissions scenarios have been used to indicate the possible upper and lower bounds on the projections.
A sensitivity analysis has been conducted to examine the implications of changing the assumptions which underpin
the 2014–15 waste projections, as per Table 3. The results of the sensitivity analysis are presented in Chapter 3.
Table 3 Projections scenarios
Scenario
Description
Baseline
Best estimates of emissions based on current information.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
7
Scenario
Description
High and low emissions
Estimates of emissions based on alternative assumptions regarding waste
generation, waste diversion, methane capture and the efficiency of industrial
wastewater processing.
1.4 Outline of methodology
The 2014–15 waste projections are based on projections of waste and wastewater activity commissioned from Hyder
Consulting by the Department of the Environment. Estimates of emissions from a unit of waste are from the national
greenhouse gas inventory, and are assumed to be constant over the projections period.
Projections of waste and wastewater activity are based on population forecasts from the 2014–15 Budget and the
Australian Bureau of Statistics, and incorporate estimates of future waste and wastewater generation, waste diversion,
and methane capture rates (ABS 2013). The projections of wastewater activity are based on the assumption that the
organic content of wastewater, the proportion of wastewater that is treated anaerobically 3, and the proportion of the
population serviced by a sewer will remain at the levels estimated for 2011–12,4 over the period to 2034–35.
The 2014–15 waste projections have been scaled to align with the September 2014 quarterly update of the national
greenhouse gas inventory.
Over the period 2013–14 to 2019–20, per person waste generation is assumed to grow at the average rate of increase
observed between 2007–08 and 2010–11 of 1.7 per cent per year. Further details on assumptions can be found in
Appendix C.
3
4
Anaerobic treatment generates methane, and can greatly reduce the organic content of wastewater.
The department’s estimate of these parameters came from Australian National Greenhouse Accounts: National Inventory Report 2012 (DoE
2014), which was the department’s latest estimate prior to releasing Australia’s Emissions Projections 2014–15.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
8
2.0 Projections results
Without taking into account abatement from Emissions Reduction Fund projects registered from 1 July 2014 onwards,
emissions from waste are projected to increase by 8 per cent to 14 Mt CO2-e, over the period 2013–14 to 2019–20.
Over the period 2013–14 to 2034–35, emissions from waste are projected to increase by 30 per cent to 17 Mt CO2-e.
Table 4 Projected waste emissions, key years
2000
2014
2020
2030
2035
Mt CO2-e
Mt CO2-e
Mt CO2-e
Mt CO2-e
Mt CO2-e
14
10
11
12
13
Solid waste – composting
<0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
Solid waste – incineration
<0.1
<0.1
<0.1
<0.1
<0.1
Wastewater – domestic and commercial
2
1
1
2
2
Wastewater – industrial
1
1
1
2
2
Total
17
13
14
16
17
Solid waste – landfill
Sources: Hyder Consulting 2014, DoE 2015b, DoE analysis.
2.1 Trends in the waste projections
Emissions from waste fell by an average of 0.3 Mt CO2-e a year between 1999–2000 and 2013–14, largely due to
increased waste diversion and methane capture. Between 2013–14 and 2019–20, emissions from waste are projected
to increase by an average of 0.2 Mt CO2-e a year. Between 2019–20 and 2034–35, the annual average increase in
emissions is projected to be 0.2 Mt CO2-e.
Figure 3 shows the expected growth in emissions from solid waste and wastewater. Growth in solid waste emissions is
expected to be larger from 2013–14 to 2019–20 than from 2019–20 to 2034–35. Waste generation is expected to
grow as a result of population and economic growth, and by the latter period the cumulative effect of incremental
increases in waste diversion and steadying levels of waste generation per capita are expected to be sufficient to
prevent substantial increases in the amount of waste sent to landfill each year. Not accounting for the effect of the
Emissions Reduction Fund, methane capture is expected to fall following the repeal of the carbon tax, resulting in
increasing emissions from solid waste.
Growth in wastewater emissions is expected to be smaller from 2013–14 to 2019–20 than from 2019–20 to 2034–35.
Economic growth is expected to be stronger in the period 2019–20 to 2034–35, which would lead to larger increases
in industrial wastewater. For domestic and commercial wastewater, the effects of population growth are expected to
outweigh slowing growth in methane capture, leading to larger annual increases in emissions from 2019–20 to 2034–
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
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35 in comparison with 2013–14 to 2019–20.
Figure 3 Projected annual average change in waste emissions
Sources: Hyder Consulting 2014, DoE 2015b, DoE analysis.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
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2.2 Solid waste
Emissions from solid waste were 10 Mt CO2-e or 78 per cent of total waste emissions in 2013–14. Of this, 10 Mt CO2-e
was from landfill, 0.1 Mt CO2-e was from composting and less than 0.1 Mt CO2-e was from the incineration of waste.
Over the period 2013–14 to 2019–20, emissions from solid waste are projected to increase by 9 per cent to
11 Mt CO2-e. Over the period 2013–14 to 2034–35, emissions from solid waste are projected to increase by
29 per cent to 13 Mt CO2-e.
Figure 4 Solid waste emissions 1989–90 to 2034–35
Sources: Hyder Consulting 2014, DoE 2015b, DoE analysis.
Projected solid waste emissions are shown in Figure 4. Over the period 1989–90 to 2013–14 waste generation grew,
but emissions from waste fell due to increases in recycling and methane capture. Methane capture can occur for a
variety of reasons, including reducing the smell associated with landfill sites, generating electricity and for safety.
However, much of the large increase in methane capture that occurred between 2011–12 and 2013–14 can be
attributed to methane capture projects funded under the Carbon Farming Initiative and the Renewable Energy Target.
While the emergence of cheaper methane capture technology and the Renewable Energy Target are expected to lead
to small increases in methane capture, new government policies such as the Emissions Reduction Fund are likely to be
the main source of further increases in methane capture.
State and territory governments, except for Tasmania and the Northern Territory, have published targets for the
diversion of solid waste from landfill. Recycling is the main way in which waste is diverted from landfill. Projections of
the amount of waste that would be sent to landfill are based on the assumption that waste diversion increases
strongly to the early 2020s as states and territories strive to meet their targets, and increases more slowly after.
Additional information about waste diversion targets and assumptions is provided in Appendix C.
Emissions associated with composting and incineration of solid waste are expected remain low, at less than
0.3 Mt CO2-e a year, over the period to 2034–35.
2.3 Wastewater
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
11
Emissions from solid waste were 22 per cent of total waste emissions in 2013–14. Domestic and commercial
wastewater and industrial wastewater produced about the same amount of emissions. Over the period 2013–14 to
2034–35, emissions from wastewater are projected to increase from 3 Mt CO2-e to 4 Mt CO2-e.
Figure 5 Wastewater emissions 1989–90 to 2034–35
Sources: Hyder Consulting 2014, DoE 2015b, DoE analysis.
Domestic and commercial wastewater emissions are projected to grow in line with projected population growth.
Industrial wastewater emissions are projected to grow as a result of projected increases in industrial activity. The
projections of wastewater from agriculture are estimated based on the 2014–15 agriculture projections, and
projections of wastewater from pulp and paper industries are estimated based on the 2014–15 direct combustion
projections.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
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3.0 Sensitivity analysis
The future values of key parameters and emissions drivers are not known with complete certainty. Sensitivity analysis
has been conducted to inform plausible upper and lower bounds for the projections. The results are presented in
Table 5 and Figure 6.
Relative to the baseline scenario, the low emissions scenario is based on:
1. rates of solid waste diversion between 5 percentage points and 10 percentage points higher than the baseline
2. methane capture rates increase twice as quickly as in the baseline
3. growth in per person solid waste generation of 0.6 per cent a year
4. more efficient domestic and commercial wastewater and industrial wastewater processing, leading to at most a
5 per cent decrease in the organic content of wastewater.
Relative to the baseline scenario, the high emissions scenario is based on:
1. no change in the proportion of solid waste that is diverted
2. methane capture rates remain at the same rate as in 2012
3. growth in per person solid waste generation of 2.5 per cent a year, in line with the assumed rate of growth in the
Consumer Price Index.
Additional information about parameters in the baseline scenario is provided in Appendix C.
Figure 6 High and low emissions sensitivity analysis
Sources: Hyder Consulting 2014, DoE 2015b, DoE analysis.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
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Table 5 Waste sensitivity analysis, key years
2020
Change from
baseline
2035
Change from
baseline
Mt CO2-e
Mt CO2-e
Mt CO2-e
Mt CO2-e
Baseline
14
-
17
-
High emissions
15
0.8
20
3
Low emissions
13
-0.8
15
-2
Projection
Sources: Hyder Consulting 2014, DoE 2015b, DoE analysis.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
14
Appendix A
Measures
The 2014–15 waste projections take account of the Renewable Energy Target and waste sector Carbon Farming
Initiative projects that were eligible to transition to the Emissions Reduction Fund.
Renewable Energy Target
The 2014–15 waste projections assume an amended Renewable Energy Target, based on a policy position of a ‘real 20
per cent’ Renewable Energy Target. This includes an amended Large-scale Renewable Energy Target of 20 per cent of
electricity demand in 2020, equivalent to 27,000 GWh in 2019–20, with amended annual targets commencing on
1 January 2016. Electricity generation from methane capture can earn a landfill operator renewable energy
certificates.
Since the release of Australia’s Emissions Projections 2014–15, changes to the Renewable Energy Target have
been legislated, including revising the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target to 33,000 GWh in 2019–20. The legislated
changes to the Renewable Energy Target have not been incorporated in the 2014–15 waste projections.
Carbon Farming Initiative
The Carbon Farming Initiative was designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land sector activities. Eligible
projects were issued Australian Carbon Credit Units for each tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent stored or captured by
a project. Australian Carbon Credit Units could be sold to people and businesses wishing to offset liability under the
carbon pricing mechanism, or wishing to voluntarily offset their emissions.
Projects under the Carbon Farming Initiative automatically become eligible Emissions Reduction Fund projects.
Abatement from projects commenced under the Carbon Farming Initiative prior to 1 July 2014 is included in the
projections. Projections of abatement from Emissions Reduction Fund projects commenced from 1 July 2014 onwards
have not been included.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
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Appendix B
Changes from the 2013 Projections
For the period to 2019–20, emissions in the 2014–15 waste projections are lower than those projected in 2013.
Methane capture over the period 2013–14 to 2019–20 is expected to be higher than in the 2013 Projections, due to
higher than expected methane capture under Carbon Farming Initiative projects, and differing assumptions about the
continuation of these projects following the repeal of the carbon tax.
For the period from 2019–20 to 2029–30, the 2014–15 waste projections have higher cumulative emissions than the
2013 waste projections. This is because waste diversion is expected to be lower than in the 2013 Projections because
of emerging evidence that some state government waste diversion policies have not been as effective as expected,
and because per person waste generation is expected to be higher than in the 2013 Projections.
Table 6 Changes between the 2013 and 2014–15 Projections
2020
Cumulative
2014 to 2020
2030
Cumulative
2014 to 2030
Mt CO2-e
Mt CO2-e
Mt CO2-e
Mt CO2-e
Solid waste (landfill,
composting and incineration)
-0.3
-6
2
4
Wastewater – domestic and
commercial
-0.5
-3
-0.4
-8
Wastewater – industrial
<0.1
0.5
<0.1
0.8
Total
-0.7
-9
2
-3
Sources: Hyder Consulting 2014, DoE 2015b, DoE analysis.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
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Appendix C
Key assumptions
Population Growth
Population growth is a key driver of emissions from waste. The 2014–15 Projections use population forecasts that are
consistent with those in Treasury’s 2014–15 Budget to 2024–25, and population forecasts consistent with Australian
Bureau of Statistics modelling thereafter (ABS 2013). Growth rates are presented in Table 7.
Table 7 Population assumptions
Population (average annual percentage growth)
2010 to 2020
2020 to 2035
1.7
1.4
Sources: ABS 2013, DoE analysis.
Per person waste generation
Over the period 2013–14 to 2019–20, per person waste generation is assumed to grow at 1.7 per cent a year; the rate
of increase observed between 2007–08 and 2010–11.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
17
Waste diversion
Table 8 shows the municipal solid waste diversion estimates for 2011–12 from the 2012 national greenhouse gas
inventory, the stated targets for each state and territory, the assumed waste diversion rates, and the year they will
occur. Waste diversion rates are assumed to increase slowly after the target year. Further detail on diversion rates for
construction and demolition waste, and commercial and industrial waste can be found in Hyder Consulting’s report
Waste sectoral modelling and analysis.
Table 8 Municipal solid waste diversion assumptions
Target
Projection
2012
Diversion
rate
Diversion rate
Year
Diversion
rate
Year
ACT
71%
90%
2025
87%
2025
NSW
58%
70%
2022
65%
2022
NT
13%
20%
2025
QLD
35%
50% (draft)
2024
40%
2024
SA
55%
70%
2015
75%
2020
TAS
34%
45%
2025
VIC
56%
65%
2014
65%
2020
WA
37%
65% (metro area)
2020
55%
2020
State/territor
y
No target
No target
Sources: Hyder 2014, DoE analysis.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
18
Appendix D
References
ABS 2013, Population Projections [Series B], Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0), Australian Bureau
of Statistics, Canberra, ACT.
Department of the Environment (DoE) 2013, Australia’s Abatement Task and 2013 Emissions Projections,
Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, ACT.
DoE 2014, Australian National Greenhouse Accounts: National Inventory Report 2012, Commonwealth of
Australia, Canberra, ACT.
DoE 2015a, Australian National Greenhouse Accounts: Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse
Gas Inventory March Quarter 2014, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, ACT.
DoE 2015b, Australian National Greenhouse Accounts: Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse
Gas Inventory September Quarter 2014, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, ACT.
Hyder Consulting 2014, Waste Sector Modelling and Analysis, Hyder Consulting, North Sydney, NSW.
Waste emissions projections 2014–15
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