1 Career Project: Fashion Forecasting Issra Killawi Intro to Merchandising 3 December 2015 Career Project: Fashion Forecasting People often view fashion as a product of inspiration and ingenuity that happens way outside of themselves - by people with an exclusive skillset. But actually, fashion is a culmination of various factors, many in which the target customer plays a central role. In fact, any trend forecaster would agree that the design process begins much before the drawing board. The aesthetic manifestations of clothing are expressions of what is happening around the people who wear those clothes. And in a world that is so vast and so constantly changing, it is a difficult task to take these abstract changes and interpret them into fashion trends. This is the job of a fashion forecaster. In a nutshell, fashion forecasters are people who are paid to be on the lookout for “clothing and lifestyle changes that could bring about changes in fashion trends” (CFNC.org). Forecasters consider factors such as the economy, consumer behavior, popular music, lifestyle trends, shifts in cultural ideology, psychology, and so much more. As large and abstract as these concepts sound, they play pivotal roles in influencing the way that people adorn and express themselves. Forecasters scout the people and places that can be both influential and inspirational for the future of design. They also document the changes and trends of the past, and look to history for evidence of what might happen in the future. Trend forecasters do their research across many disciplines, watching for the things that could point to a need or desire to change the way in which we dress, as well as how those changes will manifest into fashion trends. 2 Career Project: Fashion Forecasting To put things into perspective, consider the recent fitness craze; people now place more value in being active, looking fit, and wearing the right gear to do so. With this lifestyle shift comes a change in clothing: activewear and knitwear become more prominent than structured silhouettes, and a whole new category is born: athleisure. Jeans may have been people’s casual go-to several years ago, but today, yogas and sweats fulfill that role. Taking this trend a step further, forecasters might predict that people want versatile pieces which easily transition between their different daily occupations. What can people wear straight from yoga to the office, without compromising comfort or professionalism? What textiles and fibers will be needed to create such clothing? How can such a trend be interpreted for differing markets? For example, career women who dress in business suits will not switch to wearing yoga pants because of the trend - but designers may incorporate knits, stretch, and more relaxed fits into the styles that these women will usually wear. Not only do trend forecasters find evidence for and predict change, but they also have to understand how specific markets can interpret these fashion trends in order to maintain their brand image and sell to their target customers. Like many professions, fashion forecasting has evolved tremendously. David Wolfe, head of the Doneger Group forecasting agency in Manhattan, says that forty years ago the job was more of a form of foreign correspondence (Zimmerman, 2008). Trend spotters of the time scouted the streets of Europe and reported back with the latest styles, from which American designers would take inspiration. While traveling to fashion capitals is still an essential part of the job, Fashion forecasters today have a lot more to consider. For one thing, fashion is no longer a cookie-cutter industry and designers have begun to realize that street fashion is an influential force to be reckoned with (Blair, 2003). Market analysis across a variety of sectors plays a significant role in the predictions of what will sell, who will buy, and what price they will pay. 3 Career Project: Fashion Forecasting The use of computers and the internet have really sped up the pace at which information can be found and shared, therefore speeding up the process of research for forecasters. The emergence of social media has even allowed forecasters to tap into niche markets and follow, day by day, the lives of their target customers; Instagram, Facebook, popular blogs, and all types of social networking have made this possible. These changes have also made the industry all the more fast-paced and competitive, as companies and designers race to be in-the-know about what is to come in the fashion scene. The more and the earlier that a trend forecaster knows, the faster their designers can put ideas into production. Timing in the fashion industry is crucial. Another change that has greatly impacted fashion forecasting is the development of trend forecasting services (Sherman, 2011). In the past, most companies were equipped with an inhouse trend forecasting team. Today, forecasting giants like Stylesight, PromoStyl, and WSGN offer subscription-based forecasting services to companies and designers through easy-to-use virtual interfaces and research on every market out there. Aspiring fashion forecasters can work for such companies, work as private consultants, or even work for retailers within in-house forecasting for private label merchandise development. Unlike other career paths, fashion forecasting does not have much of a hierarchy, as the position usually fits under a broader division such as product development (Dimitrieski, 2015). However, more experience allows a forecaster’s credibility to grow, therefore also growing their value as hire. Starting trend forecasters are paid about $20,000, while a forecaster with seven to ten years under their belt can be paid between $100,000 and $200,000 (Sahadi, 2005). As mentioned earlier, social media has only made the field more competitive, giving more people access to the fashion scene. As of 2008, there were only between 750-1000 fashion forecasting positions in the U.S. (Sahadi). 4 Career Project: Fashion Forecasting So what exactly does it take to become a fashion forecaster, and what does the job encompass? In terms of educational background, it is tremendously helpful to have a background in design, business, or related fields. However, because the fashion industry is impacted by so many factors outside of fashion, people with various backgrounds exist in the field. Take, for example, Jayne Mountford, a fashion forecaster with a background in social anthropology who uses what she knows about “tribes” to analyze the behavior of consumer groups (Parker, 2013). Beyond education, many say that the skill of trend-spotting is an intuitive one; you either have it - or you don’t. But there are many design and merchandising programs today that offer courses that train students the art of fashion forecasting. Valentina Dimitrieski, a lecturer in the Design and Merchandising program at Wayne State University, teaches a course on product development and forecasting. Fifteen years in the industry give her a lot to say about what it takes to be a fashion forecaster. Having thick skin and the ability to stand your ground, being a “people person,” and having a fresh and forward outlook on things - according to Dimitrieski, that’s what it takes to be a successful forecaster. She also says that being proficient in programs like Adobe Photoshop and Illustrator, having an internship, as well as the ability to sketch, are all vital. Dimitrieski worked as a product developer for K-mart, but little did she know that at least forty percent of her job would consist of fashion forecasting. In designing private label clothing for K-mart, her experience offers great insight for those who want to know what it means to be a forecaster on a day-to-day basis. First of all, Dimitrieski stressed how important it is to know your target customer and what they will buy (It is important to note that there is a lot of research involved). So to design a winter wear collection, she traveled to New York to do some trendspotting on the streets and in exclusive trade shows. Dimitrieski then took what she observed and 5 Career Project: Fashion Forecasting with her target market in mind, developed designs that incorporated those trends. Working under a corporation like K-mart meant that she had to present her designs to buyers who would choose what they felt their customers were most likely to buy. After some negotiation, the agreed-upon designs were those that made it to the store floor. Designers might wonder: as a designer, how much room is there for your own ingenuity when incorporating trends and interpreting them for product development? There is no right answer, really. Some designers choose to ignore trend forecasts completely, and are still successful. Others will work under the limitations that their brand images, target market, or bosses set. Ideally, the balance is to create something that is in style, meets the customer’s taste, and therefore sells, and it goes without saying that to do this is no easy task to accomplish. The job of a fashion forecaster is a unique and intriguing one, as it touches upon a world much larger than the one in photo shoots and clothing racks. I chose to learn more about fashion forecasting because I am particularly interested in what fashion represents, as medium, in a constantly changing world. The “why” behind a trend offers a depth of knowledge that is communicated in the way we choose to dress. In the words of David Wolfe, “You have to understand the world if you are going to understand what people want to wear” (Zimmerman). 6 Career Project: Fashion Forecasting Works Cited Blair, E. (2003, September 17). Forecasting Fashion Trends. Retrieved November 27, 2015. CFNC.org - Career Profile. (2011). Retrieved November 26, 2015. Dimitrieski, V. (2015, December 2). Fashion Forecasting: What is it? [Telephone interview]. Parker, L. (2013, August 6). 10 Minutes With... Jayne Mountford, Accessories Magazine and Accessories Directions Trend Director - Accessories Magazine. Retrieved November 25, 2015. Sahadi, J. (2005, January 7). Trend forecasting: Knowing when sky-blue pink'll be red hot. Retrieved November 20, 2015. Sherman, L. (2011, May 31). Want To Be A Trend Forecaster When You Grow Up? Stylesight Might Be Your Ticket. Retrieved December 1, 2015 Zimmerman, E. (2008, May 10). Roaming the World, Detecting Fashion. Retrieved November 29, 2015.