National Weather Service
Southeast River Forecast Center
Daily Operational Overview Message
3:20 p.m. June 25, 2012
… Significant Flooding Across Part of Northern Florida…
While T.S. Debby has weakened slightly in intensity and is still not well
organized, the potential for producing extremely heavy rainfall and
significant flooding is high. The area of greatest concern is bounded by a
Tampa – Jacksonville – Tallahassee line.
Debby is forecast to take the rest of the week to make it across the northern
Peninsula of Florida. During this time, inflows of tropical rainfall will set up over
the region.
Over the weekend, one such plume of tropical moisture produced a band of very
heavy rain from near Tampa northeast to Jacksonville. The area in purple
(below) received rainfall of 4 to 8 inches. The white spots north of Tampa
received over 10 inches.
Some of the heavier reports included: Hernando County 14.13 inches, 13.89
inches – Pinellas County 13.09 inches – Pasco County 12.54 inches.
Most rivers within this band of heaviest rainfall (generally the dark red and
purple) are rising fast and will exceed flood stage.
Keep in mind that this rain event will continue for at least 4 more days! Here is
the rainfall potential for the next 5 days.
In the near term, the two areas of greatest concern are the regions that received
the highest amount of rain over the weekend and the areas that are receiving the
heaviest rainfall today.
The northern Gulf Coast, near Tallahassee, is receiving a steady inflow of
tropical rainfall today. Rainfall rates will be high for the rest of today and tonight
from Tallahassee to Lake City. Extensive pooling of water, as well as urban and
flash flooding can be expected near and along Interstate 10.
Rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour are occurring near and south of
Tallahassee.
Due to the slow and uncertain movement of Tropical Storm Debby, changes in
the rainfall and river forecasts can be expected over the next several days.
SERFC Water Watch Team
Main stem rivers within this area can also expect to experience fast rises, likely
exceeding flood stage.
SERFC Water Watch Team