Numerical study on the prediction of the Harmful Algae Blooms in the East
China Sea
Jing Yang, Hai Li and Qinzhen Liu
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, PR China
E-mail: yangj@nmefc.gov.cn
According to the demands of the HAB disaster early warning and forecasting system,
ecodynamics research on the short-term prediction of HABs for the East China Sea
was conducted. The parameters of the biochemical model were optimized for the East
China Sea demonstration area. The HABs occurrence probability was calculated
according to the threshold criteria of environmental factors acquired from a numerical
model. The HABs prediction model based on statistical likelihood was used to test the
operational forecast. This preliminary operational HABs forecast system can be
used to forecast HABs outbreak associated with key triggering factors in the marine
environment. Combined with the HABs statistical prediction method to assess
likelihood, this prediction model serves to prevent and mitigate HAB disasters in the
East China Sea.