WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
___________________________________________
RA I TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE
RA I/TCC-21/Doc. 6.5
(26.8.2015)
________
TWENTY-FIRST SESSION
ITEM 6.5
ST. DENIS, LA REUNION
28 SEPTEMBER – 2 OCTOBER 2015
Original: ENGLISH
REVIEW OF THE TECHNICAL PLAN AND ITS IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMME
Research Component
(Submitted by the Secretariat)
SUMMARY AND PURPOSE OF DOCUMENT
This document provides the session with information on the recent activities of
the World Weather Research Programme in particular its Working Group on
Tropical Meteorology Research, which is of particular relevance to the research
component of the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee.
ACTION PROPOSED
The Committee is invited to review the information to be presented by the WMO
representative at this session and make proposals and recommendations concerning future
research activities as amendments and/or additions to the draft text attached to this document.
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References:
1.
WMO Strategic Plan (2012-2015) WMO-No. 1069 and WMO Operating Plan Updated
Programme Activities Planned and Funded for Implementation (2014-2015)
2.
Strategic Plan for the Implementation of WMO’s World Weather Research Programme
(WWRP) (2009-2017) (WMO/TD No. 1505) (WWRP 2009-2)
Appendix:
Draft text for inclusion in the report of the session
RA I/TCC-21/Doc. 6.5, p. 2
DRAFT TEXT FOR INCLUSION IN THE DRAFT REPORT OF THE
TWENTY FIRST SESSION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE
7.5
Research
7.5.1 The Committee noted that Congress during its last session (Geneva, May-June 2015)
urged WMO Members to actively engage and support three major WWRP research projects based
on the THORPEX experience namely: ‘polar prediction project’ (PPP), ‘subseasonal to seasonal’
project (S2S) and ‘high-impact weather’ project (HIWeather), aligned to the needs of Members as
reflected through the WMO strategic priorities and supported through voluntary contributions. The
WWRP Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research is actively involved in two of the three
above-mentioned THORPEX Legacy Projects (i.e.S2S and HIWeather).
7.5.2 The Committee was pleased to note that the Working Group on Tropical Meteorology
Research (WGTMR) is coordinating with the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) and the
Typhoon Committee on how best to integrate the recently approved project: “Experiment
on Typhoon Intensity Change in the Coastal area (EXOTICA) with the on-going WWRP
project: Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP). EXOTICA aim to
improve the operational analysis and forecasting techniques of tropical cyclone (TC)
intensity, understanding of the mechanisms of TC intensity and structural changes, and
identifying key scientific issues of TC related disaster prevention and mitigation. Plans are
to invite proponents of the EXOTICA project to a TLFDP workshop tentatively scheduled
in December this year.
7.5.3
The Committee noted that three WWRP/WGTMR research projects on tropical cyclones
are currently ongoing:
a) NWPacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP) for Typhoon
Committee members (2009-2015)
(Lead: Japan Meteorological Agency)
b) Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) (2010-2018)
(Lead: Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/CMA)
c) Understanding and Prediction of Rainfall Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
(UPDRAFT) (2015-2020)
(Lead: CMA and Nanjing University)
7.5.4 The Committee noted the ongoing research projects on tropical cyclones and encouraged
RA I TCC Members to identify and develop similar projects with a view to further improving
operational weather and related environmental services and thereby meet the needs and
requirements of tropical cyclone affected countries in Africa. These research projects are of utmost
importance especially in light of the recent increase in the frequency/severity of extreme weather
events indicating increasing threat to lives and property especially to developing countries.
7.5.5 The Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) and Third
International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-III) was successfully
held in Jeju Island of the Republic of Korea from 2-10 December 2014). A total of 214 tropical
cyclone experts, mostly from Members of the five tropical cyclone regional bodies, participated in
the two workshops. Three RA I TCC Members (France, Madagascar and Mauritius) were
represented in last year’s workshop. As in past workshops, discussions between the forecasters
and researchers resulted in a number of recommendations addressed to WMO, Tropical Cyclone
Forecasters and the Research Community on needed actions with the goal of improving tropical
cyclone forecasting and warning systems and reducing the associated risk and damages caused
by tropical cyclones. One such recommendation was for WMO to consider new topics for future
workshops such as those dealing with societal impacts for the advancement of the Total Warning
RA I/TCC-21/Doc. 6.5, p. 3
System concept and
for the sharing of relevant experiences.
7.5.6 The Committee noted with appreciation that WWRP is placing special emphasis on
advancing better predictions of high impact weather events on wider time ranges, from nowcasting
to seasonal time scale, as the socio-economic effects of these events remain of central importance
to Members. In line with this endeavor, the Committee also noted that the Programme is working
on improving the interaction between Universities/Research Institutes and NMHSs in order to
advance the understanding of the processes behind extreme events and to facilitate the
development of new forecast tools and methods including those related to tropical cyclones.
7.5.7 The Committee was pleased to note the success of the Workshop on Communicating Risk
and Uncertainty organized by the WWRP Working Group on Societal and Economic Research
Applications (WG SERA) held in Melbourne in July 2012. The workshop provided a forum for a
research discussion concerning the effective communication of uncertainty and risk in weather and
warning messages. Building on the success of this workshop for the Australasian region, plans are
to organize similar events in other regions.
7.5.8 The 3rd Monsoon Heavy Rainfall Workshop was held in New Delhi India from 22 to 24
September 2015. Organized by WGTMR’s Monsoon Panel, chaired by Professor CP Chang, the
3-day workshop presented and discussed recent research results on the observation, modelling
and prediction of heavy rainfall in the monsoon region with special focus on heavy rainfall
associated with tropical cyclone events. The workshop also provided a half-day training session to
a select group of NMHS forecasters from monsoon affected countries. The oral session include
invited lectures and selected contributed papers. A session during the workshop was dedicated to
presentations on the status of the WWRP’s international field and modelling project: Southern
China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX).