Projected Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Distribution of Bioclimatic Zones and Ecoregions
within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China, India, Nepal
Supplementary Material
SM-Table 1: CIMP5 Earth System Models (ESM), downscaled to ~1 km2 resolution, across four representative conservation
pathways (RCP), representing a range of emission scenarios from lowest (RCP 2.6) to highest (RCP 8.5). Results from sixty three
ESM/RCP combinations were used in the analysis.
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 6.0
RCP 8.5
CENTER
COUNTRY
ESM
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and Bureau of Meteorology
Australia
ACCESS1-0
Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
China
BCC-CSM1-1
X
X
X
X
National Center for Atmospheric Research
United States
CCSM4
X
X
X
X
National Science Foundation
United States
CESM1-CAM5-1-FV2
X
X
X
Centre National de Recherches Meteorlogiques/Centre Europeen de Recherche et Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique France
CNRM-CM5
X
X
X
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
United States
GFDL-CM3
X
X
X
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
United States
GFDL-ESM2G
X
X
X
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
United States
GISS-E2-R
X
X
X
X
Met Office Hadley Centre
UK
HadGEM2-AO
X
X
X
X
Met Office Hadley Centre
UK
HadGEM2-CC
Met Office Hadley Centre
UK
HadGEM2-ES
Institute for Numerical Mathematics
Russia
INMCM4
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace
France
IPSL-CM5A-LR
X
X
X
X
Ocean Research Institute and National Institute for Environmental Studies
Japan
MIROC-ESM-CHEM
X
X
X
X
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Japan
MIROC-ESM
X
X
X
X
Japan
MIROC5
X
X
X
X
Max Planck Institut für Meteorologic
Germany
MPI-ESM-LR
X
X
Meteorological Research Institute
Japan
MRI-CGCM3
X
X
X
X
Norwegian Climate Centre
Norway
NorESM1-M
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
SM-Table 2: Global and regional geospatial datasets used in the KSL-Ens analysis.
SM-Table 3: Description of KSL-EnS Bioclimatic Zones
A brief description of the KSL-EnS bioclimatic zones is given below.
Extremely Cold and Wet (KSL-EnS Zones C and D)
The extremely cold zones (Zones C and D) are found at the highest elevations
and cross the Himalaya ridge onto the arid and continental Tibetan plateau,
which is sheltered by the Himalayan range from the Asian monsoon. Extremely
cold and moist climate zones (Zone C and D) and strata (Strata C2, D1, D2 and
D3) coincide with what is generally referred to as “nival zones”, mostly above
5500 meters, with an average elevation of over 6,500 m. These strata are
typically covered by permanent glaciers and snow on the Himalayan ridges and
mountain tops, or barren land with seasonal snow. On the Tibetan plateau this
includes barren land with seasonal snow and glaciers on the mountain tops. The
average mean annual temperature for these extremely cold zones (C and D) is –
11.0° C. Low estimated PET rates at these extreme altitudes means that these
areas are considered wet, with very wet aridity index values, in spite of relatively
low precipitation. However, this does not take into account the high solar
radiation effects, sublimation (as opposed to evaporation) of moisture, and the
very heterogeneous and diverse climatic conditions at these extreme high
elevations. More than 3400 km2 of area is included in this zone.
Extremely Cold and Mesic (Zone F)
The extremely cold and mesic zone (F) can be characterized as “alpine”,
although on the Tibetan plateau most of this should be considered as high
altitude cold desert. This zone is comprised of five strata, covering most
ecosystems in KSL-China below 6000m, but including high Himalayan and transHimalayan valleys within Nepal and India. Strata F4 covers most of the
northernmost part of KSL-China, referred to as West Tibetan Plateau Alpine
Steppe. As a result of overestimation of precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau,
much of this area might be more xeric rather than mesic, even though the
analysis shows an average Aridity Index for these area that would imply a more
wet climate. A small portion of the F4 strata is found in India and Nepal, and can
be integrated with the F7 and F8 strata, all together denoting Upper TransHimalaya Alpine Meadows. Likewise, the F13 stratum can be subdivided with a
portion in China, identified as the Grandise Mountains Alpine Tundra, while the
portion in India and Nepal (together with F15) can be aggregated as the Upper
Trans-Himalaya Alpine Meadows ecoregion. Grandise Mountains Alpine Tundra
is differentiated from West Tibetan Plateau Alpine Steppe, having a larger portion
of open shrubland (35% vs 15%) and a lower portion of barren land (45% vs
60%). Upper Trans-Himalaya Alpine Meadows include some limited presence of
glaciers, and a significant amount of area with permanent and seasonal snow,
and supports primarily shrub and grassland vegetation types. This zone covers
almost 16,000 km2, with an average mean annual temperature of -1.0° C, and an
average elevation of 4,800 m.
Cold and Mesic (Zone G)
Although this zone, comprised of six strata, is generally defined as cold and
mesic, significant portions of strata G7 and G11 are xeric and found in the upper
portion of the Kali Gandaki River within China. The ecosystems in this climate
zone (exclusive of the xeric areas on the Tibetan Plateau), are subalpine to
alpine, with meadow and shrub vegetation types above treeline, and the
presence of scattered trees below the treeline that gradually form closed forest
patches at the lower elevational extent of this zone. The three colder climate
strata (G4, G7 and G8) in this zone typically supports vegetation corresponding
to the Western Himalayan Alpine Shrub and Meadow eco-region, while the three
warmer climate strata (G11, G12 and G13) typically support vegetation
corresponding to the Western Himalayan Subalpine Conifer Forest Ecoregion.
This zone has an average elevation of 3,800m, a mean annual temperature of
4.9° C, and covers just more than 3000 km2.
Cool Temperate and Moist (Zones J and H)
This cool temperate and moist to mesic climatic zone, also referred to commonly
as “upper temperate”, comprised of five strata, lay on the transition between
subalpine and temperate zones, and in the KSL is found only within Nepal and
India. The colder strata (J1, H5 and J3) lay in the subalpine zone with typical
vegetation of Subalpine Mixed Forest. The two warmer, and lower in average
elevation, strata (J4 and J5) are within the temperate zone, with typical
vegetation corresponding to the Temperate Western Himalayan Conifer Forest
Ecoregion. This zone covers 1500 km2, with an average mean annual
temperature of 9.3° C, and an average elevation of 3028m. Drier areas of this
zone (H5) are included, however, cover just over 100 km2, and are not
represented under future climate conditions. Precipitation in this zone averages
approximately 1100 mm per year, most of it during the summer monsoon. There
are some patches of scattered “cloud forest” found in this zone, a result of
orographic effects.
Warm Temperate and Mesic (Zone K)
This warm temperate and mesic zone, comprised of 7 strata, includes element of
both the lower temperate and subtropical zones, and in the KSL is found only in
Nepal and India. The colder strata (K1, K2, K5 and K7) correspond to the
Western Himalayan Temperate Braodleaf Forest Ecoregion, while the warmer
strata (K10, K13 and L3) are Himalayan Subtropical Mixed Forest. The strata K2
is only present under future conditions and it not represented under current
conditions. This zone covers more than 4,800 km2, with an average mean
annual temperature of 14.8°C, and an average elevation of 2084m. Precipitation
in this zone averages approximately 1200 mm per year.
Hot and Mesic (Zone N)
This hot and dry zone is comprised of five strata (N1, N2, N3, N5 and N8), and is
commonly referred to as the subtropical zone. It is associated with the presence
of Himalayan Subtropical Pine Forest dominated by Pinus roxburghii (Chir Pine).
In the KSL it is only present within Nepal and India. This zone covers 2033 km2,
with an average mean annual temperature of 18.5° C, average mean annual
precipitation of 1600 mm per year, and an average elevation of 1371 m.
Extremely Hot and Mesic (Zone M)
This extremely hot and mesic “tropical” zone is comprised of two strata (M2, M8),
and at present, under current conditions, has only a limited presence in the KSL.
This zone is associated with the “Tropical Broadleaved Forest” ecoregion (i.e. Hill
Sal Forest dominated by Shorea robusta) and is found in the lower elevation of
the KSL in India and Nepal. This zone covers 440 km2, has an average mean
annual temperature of 22° C, average mean annual precipitation of 1885 mm,
and average elevation of 737 m.
SM-Table 4: The number of CIMP5 Earth System Models (ESM) used in the analysis
within each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCP) emission scenarios,
and the percentage of ESM within each RCP which were in the majority class of the
projected stratification results, i.e. representing the congruence among models within
each RCP, and their standard deviation (STD).
SM-Table 5: Average mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation for the
KSL averaged from1960-2000, and for each of the four representative concentration
pathways (RCP) emission scenarios, and their average, as projected for the year 2050.
SM-Table 6: Change in the area of KSL-EnS bioclimatic zones as projected under four
emission scenarios or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and the average
of all the RCPs.
SM-Table 7: Change in the mean elevation of the KLS-EnS bioclimatic zones as
projected by the four emission scenarios or representative conservation pathways
(RCPs), and the average of all the RCPs. All zones shift upward, with an average
upward shift for all zones of 357 m.
SM-Table 8: Change in the mean elevation of the KLS-EnS bioclimatic strata as
projected by the four emission scenarios or resource conservation pathways (RCPs),
and the average of all the RCPs. Several strata currently found within the KSL are no
longer present under projected future climate conditions. Two strata not previously seen
in the KSL appear under various RCP-ESM model results. Numbers in parentheses ()
give the mean elevation for these two newly appearing strata.
SM-Table 9: Change in the area of KSL-EnS ecoregions as projected under four
emission scenarios or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and the average
of all the RCPs.
Area (km 2 )
Ecoregion
Nival Zone
West Tibetan Plateau Alpine Steppe
Grandise Mountains Alpine Tundra
Upper Alpine Meadow
Alpine Shrub And Meadow
Subalpine Conifer Forest
Subalpine Mixed Forest
Temperate Conifer Forest
Temperate Broadleaf Forest
Subtropical Pine/Mixed Forest
Subtropical Pine Forest
Tropical Broadleaf Forest
2000
3478
3186
3309
9385
1015
2031
760
758
2946
1895
2000
447
RCP 2.6
1432
1405
2432
12003
1982
2318
655
1008
2458
1091
3012
1407
RCP 4.5
767
1440
2708
11293
1702
3330
693
938
3381
226
2294
2431
RCP 6.0
1009
1608
2612
11867
1386
2895
667
1033
3020
466
2939
1701
RCP 8.5
623
1205
2072
11184
1974
3945
673
1098
2985
368
1770
3306
RCP Average
958
1415
2456
11587
1761
3122
672
1019
2961
538
2504
2211
-2855
-1981
-1237
1799
959
1914
-87
340
39
-1527
-230
2859
-2520
-1772
-853
2202
746
1091
-88
261
15
-1357
504
1764
-82
-62
-37
19
94
94
-11
45
1
-81
-12
640
-72
-56
-26
23
73
54
-12
34
1
-72
25
395
Change in Area from 2000 (km2 )
Nival Zone
West Tibetan Plateau Alpine Steppe
Grandise Mountains Alpine Tundra
Upper Alpine Meadow
Alpine Shrub And Meadow
Subalpine Conifer Forest
Subalpine Mixed Forest
Temperate Conifer Forest
Temperate Broadleaf Forest
Subtropical Pine/Mixed Forest
Subtropical Pine Forest
Tropical Broadleaf Forest
-2046
-1781
-877
2618
967
287
-105
250
-488
-804
1012
960
-2711
-1746
-601
1908
687
1299
-67
180
435
-1669
294
1984
-2469
-1578
-697
2482
371
864
-93
275
74
-1429
939
1254
Change in Area from 2000 (%)
Nival Zone
West Tibetan Plateau Alpine Steppe
Grandise Mountains Alpine Tundra
Upper Alpine Meadow
Alpine Shrub And Meadow
Subalpine Conifer Forest
Subalpine Mixed Forest
Temperate Conifer Forest
Temperate Broadleaf Forest
Subtropical Pine/Mixed Forest
Subtropical Pine Forest
Tropical Broadleaf Forest
-59
-56
-27
28
95
14
-14
33
-17
-42
51
215
-78
-55
-18
20
68
64
-9
24
15
-88
15
444
-71
-50
-21
26
37
43
-12
36
3
-75
47
281
SM - Table 10: Change in the mean elevation of the KLS-EnS bioclimatic zones as
projected by the four emission scenarios or representative conservation pathways
(RCPs), and the average of all the RCPs. All ecoregions shift upward, with an average
upward shift for all ecoregions of 371 m.
Mean Elevation (m asl)
Ecoregion
Nival Zone
West Tibetan Plateau Alpine Steppe
Grandise Mountains Alpine Tundra
Upper Alpine Meadow
Alpine Shrub And Meadow
Subalpine Conifer Forest
Subalpine Mixed Forest
Temperate Conifer Forest
Temperate Broadleaf Forest
Subtropical Pine/Mixed Forest
Subtropical Pine Forest
Tropical Broadleaf Forest
2000
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 6.0
RCP 8.5
5431
5354
4690
4728
3862
3609
3041
2794
2190
1727
1323
922
5713
5567
4955
4927
4263
3902
3412
3136
2533
2034
1593
1070
5818
5590
5068
4977
4399
4080
3514
3239
2497
2285
1713
1220
5777
5566
4990
4941
4304
4006
3468
3185
2470
2225
1645
1115
5875
5617
5173
5019
4506
4175
3591
3290
2582
2354
1805
1330
RCP Average
5796
5585
5047
4966
4368
4041
3496
3213
2521
2224
1689
1184
Upward Shift in Mean Elevation from 2000 (m)
Nival Zone
West Tibetan Plateau Alpine Steppe
Grandise Mountains Alpine Tundra
Upper Alpine Meadow
Alpine Shrub And Meadow
Subalpine Conifer Forest
Subalpine Mixed Forest
Temperate Conifer Forest
Temperate Broadleaf Forest
Subtropical Pine/Mixed Forest
Subtropical Pine Forest
Tropical Broadleaf Forest
282
213
265
199
401
293
371
342
343
307
270
148
387
236
378
249
537
471
473
445
307
558
390
298
346
212
300
213
442
397
427
391
280
498
322
193
444
263
483
291
644
566
550
496
392
627
482
408
365
231
357
238
506
432
455
419
331
497
366
262
Average Upward Shift (m)
286
394
335
470
371
SM-Table 11: The total area that shifts to another class by 2050 within bioclimatic strata,
bioclimatic zones, and ecoregions, and as a percent of the total area of the KSL.
SM-Figure 1: Elevation map of the Kailash Sacred Landscape showing the steep
elevation gradient up to the crest of the Himalaya, ranging from below 500 to over 7,600
m asl, and the large expanse of very high elevation (>5000 m asl) on the Tibetan
Plateau. This transboundary landscape is comprised of portions of the southwestern
Tibetan Autonomous Republic of China, and adjacent portions of northern India and
northwestern Nepal.
SM – Figure 2: The uncertainty among the results from a multi-model CIMP5-ESM ensemble (n=63) applied across four
representative concentration pathways (RCP), or emission scenarios. Percent of models in the majority class is shown as a measure
of the congruence among models used within each RCP in the results of the classification of KSL-EnS bioclimatic zones.
SM – Figure 3: The uncertainty among the results from a multi-model CIMP5 ESM ensemble (n=63) applied across four
representative concentration pathways (RCP), or emission scenarios. Percent of models in the majority class is shown as a measure
of the congruence among models used within each RCP in the results of the classification of KSL-EnS ecoregions.
SM – Figure 4: Average mean annual temperature versus average mean annual precipitation
for 63 CMIP-5 model runs within four emission scenarios (RCP; representative concentration
pathways) and the average mean annual temperature and precipitation from 1960-2000
(WorldClim – 2000), for the Kailash Sacred Landscape.