Preparing For The Cascadian Megaquake
Dr. Joseph Costa, DHSc., PA-C
Health Policy and Management
MPH 525
Caitlin Waugh
April 2014
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Table of Contents
Chapter
Page
1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………3
Background………………………………………………………………………………….3
The Threat……………………………………………………………………………………3
Oregon is far from safe………………………………………………………………….4
Japan……………………………………………………………………………………………5
2. Communication……………………………………………………………………………………….5
Theories……………………………………………………………………………………….5
Communicating the Threat……………………………………………………………6
3. Preparation……………………………………………………………………………………………..7
Great ShakeOut……………………………………………………………………………..7
Energy Rebates……………………………………………………………………………..8
Zombies………………………………………………………………………………………..9
4. Communication During the Disaster…………………………………………………………9
Evacuation…………………………………………………………………………………..10
Getting Critical Information to the Public………………………………………10
5. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………..11
References……………………………………………………………………………………………………12
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Chapter 1
Introduction
Background
A disaster is a sudden event that causes damage and loss. It causes serious
disruption to society resulting in both human suffering and environmental degradation
(CDC, 2012).
The frequency of natural disasters has been increasing. From 2000 to 2009 there have
been 3 times as many natural disasters as there was between 1980 and 1989, affecting
217 million people per year (Leaning & Guha-Sapir, 2013). Since the welfare of citizens
is threatened in the event of a disaster, curtailing the damage and responding to the threat
of a disaster is a public health responsibility.
There is no greater time to respond to a natural disaster than prior to its
occurrence. Off the coast of Oregon looms a threat of an impending earthquake. Research
has suggested that an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 8.0 will result in massive
loss of human life and structural and economic damage. Proper communication prior to
the event can help minimize risk and save lives. This paper will explore different types of
communication, how they apply to earthquake preparedness scenarios and suggest
methods to communicate the public health threat of an earthquake prior, during and after
its occurrence.
The Threat
The Cascadia Subduction Zone is located about 50 miles off the Oregon Coast. It
is characterized by the subduction of the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate underneath the North
American plate (USGS, 2012). Based on the results of a 13-year geological study of the
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region, it is estimated that in the next 50 years an earthquake that rivals the intensity of
the Tohoku earthquake will occur off the coast of southern Oregon (Goldfinger et al,
2012). The likelihood of this earthquake occurring is estimated at 40%. Over the past
10,000 years there have been 19 earthquakes that ranged in magnitude of 8.7 to 9.2 from
Northern California to Vancouver Island. There have been an additional 22 earthquakes
from 8.0 to 8.7 in this same time frame (Goldfinger et al, 2012).
Oregon is far from safe
The Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Administration Commission (OSSPAC)
released a report that estimated the damage Oregon would sustain if the earthquake and
subsequent tsunami occurred today. Their findings suggest that Oregon is far from ready
for the impacts of such an episode. According to their study they estimate:
Fatalities ranging from 1,250 to more than 10,000 due to the combined effects of
earthquake and tsunami, tens of thousands of buildings destroyed or damaged so
extensively that they will require months to years of repair, tens of thousands of
displaced households, more than $30 billion in direct and indirect economic losses
(close to one-fifth of Oregon’s gross state product), and more than one million
dump truck loads of debris (Yu et al, 2013).
Oregon is not structurally prepared and neither are its citizens. There are many
critical services that will be deeply impacted by such an event. The OSSPAC’s report
estimates that some people will be without drinking water or sewage for up to three years.
Healthcare facilities are estimated to be unable to provide service for at least 18 months
and it can take 3 to 6 months to restore electricity (Yu et al, 2013).
Japan
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When the 8.9 earthquake occurred in Japan in 2011, the damage sustained from
the massive quake was minor in comparison to the damage caused by the tsunami.
Despite the tsunami the death toll in Japan was still significantly less than the death toll
after the Haitian earthquake. This is an example of the different levels of preparedness.
Much of this can be attributed to the advanced communication system Japan has in place.
As soon as Japan detects an earthquake, television channels are replaced with live news
coverage and SMS messages are automatically sent out to all cell phones (Rauhala,
2011). Citizens are frequently drilled from the time they are young. When an earthquake
does occur, muscle memory essentially takes over and the event they practiced so often is
not so intimidating or frightening.
Chapter 2
Communication
Theories
Communication for Persuasion Theory
Persuasion is defined as the use of communication to modify or change
someone’s belief. In order to utilize persuasion tactics, there must be a goal and intent to
achieve that goal. The recipient hearing the persuasive communication must have free
will (Dainton & Zalley, 2004). Persuasion theory can be utilized in public health
communication by highlighting facts that are frightening or particularly relevant. By
overstressing earthquake statistics it plays on the emotions of the public.
Cultivation Theory of Mass Media
Cultivation theory is an idea that media gradually changes a persons perceptions
and ideas. The combined effects of massive consumption of media over time subtly
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change a person’s perception and therefore the community (Cultivation Theory, n.d.). By
exposing people frequently to earthquake preparedness announcements, it will begin to
have an impact on their approach to preparedness. If a member of the population drives
by a billboard that promotes preparedness every day to work and they hear a radio ad for
creating an evacuation plan, it will begin to mold their way of thinking.
Mass Communication Theory
This is a unique time period. Now, more than ever before, media is a part of our
daily life. Mass communication is the way in which public entities release information to
a large part of the population (Pearce, 2009). It is imperative that a public health message
reaches the intended target. The Japanese alarm system is a great example of the
utilization of mass communication.
Communicating the Threat
Why aren’t we prepared?
As stated earlier, natural disasters are happening with increasing frequency. With
the ability to access news media in a moments notice, Americans have seen the
devastation of Hurricane Katrina, the earthquake in Haiti and the earthquake and tsunami
in Japan. Yet, despite the instant access to all of these disasters, Americans remain
underprepared.
Public Risk Perception
For a member of the general public to be prepared for an event of this nature they
need to secure materials and create plans before an event strikes. Past events have
showed that people are generally not prepared for events and Oregonians are no
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exception. In order to effectively communicate, public health officials need to understand
the way in which members of the general public perceive threats.
In a paper written by Slovic, Kunreuther & White, the researchers attempt to
understand how humans react to the risk of natural disaster and why they make certain
detrimental choices. Many people affected by natural disaster rationalized their
assumption of experiencing another disaster in many different ways. Some people
believed that these events occur in cycles and that they would not fall into an interval.
Others believed in a law of averages and told the researchers that since there was a recent
flood, they were unlikely to experience another flood soon. They found that only those
with repeated exposures to naturally devastating weather would change their behavior.
Japan is an excellent example of this. Due to the frequent earthquakes, they have one of
the most advanced responses to earthquakes.
Research in this field has shown that an individual’s decision to not be prepared
exasperates the tragedy of natural events because they choose to make themselves
vulnerable. Understanding this will allow for more effective communication.
Chapter 3
Preparation
Great ShakeOut
Oregon officials are very aware of the looming threat of the Cascadian
Megaquake. Every October, there is an event called the Great ShakeOut. Its intention is
to increase awareness and “practice” what to do in the instance of an earthquake. At
10:16 on October 16th participants will stop, drop and cover for 60 seconds. This is a
great program however its participation is limited. Only 22,000 people registered in
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Oregon for the 2013 event. Increasing involvement would be advantageous to grow
public knowledge and encourage more participation in public preparedness practices.
I recommend that public schools be required to participate. Students should be
given a homework assignment that involves the participation of their entire family. The
assignment would encourage parents and children to talk about what type of escape or
evacuation plan they would need to implement. At school, after the drill, students can
participate in creating their own “bug out bag.” Students generally have backpacks at
school. For the remainder of the day they can replace their books and homework with
approved objects from FEMA’s suggested items list. This includes water, food, first aid
kits, maps and a flashlight. By reaching out to children, it is also possible to educate
adults.
Local and state governments should take a more active role. Police and
Firefighters can host local events on the 16th. Closing a main road and hosting an event
will not only bring members of the community together, but it could demonstrate the
difficulties that will exist if roads are destroyed or shut down.
Organizers should recruit local churches to participate. Churches can hold special
services that help facilitate the communication around earthquake preparedness.
Parishioners should be encouraged to create their own personal plans but also to
contribute to the development of an emergency plan for their church.
Energy Rebates
Energy rebates are available for a variety of reasons. By purchasing specially
approved appliances or light bulbs, it is possible to receive a credit on an energy, water or
gas bill. I propose that a rebate be made available to people that inquire for special
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training on how to turn off their utilities in the event of an earthquake. Energy bills climb
drastically during the winter months. By advertising the potential for a rebate, people
would be inclined to take the few minutes out of their day to learn useful information and
save money. This inherently brings awareness to the potential for an earthquake in the
region.
Zombies
There is no denying how trendy zombies are right now. Following the CDC’s
example, public health officials should use the popularity of the zombie craze to help
prepare people for natural disasters such as the Cascadian Megaquake. Oregon also has a
very strong running culture.
Local public health professionals would be tasked to create a zombie run.
Participants would run through an obstacle course filled with the “walking dead.” At the
end of the race an expo would be set up. Participants could include organizations such as
the American Red Cross, Sporting Goods Stores and the Citizen Corps. This would allow
members of the community to interact in a more personal environment with experts in the
field of preparedness. Post race refreshments would consist of bottled water and MRE’s.
As discussed earlier in regards to mass communication, it is important that public
health officials are able to be relevant. This will increase communication and draw
attention to an important topic. Zombies are relevant. Zombies are also fun. By making a
potentially stressful topic fun it might encourage people to be more proactive.
Chapter 4
Communication During the Disaster
Evacuation
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During Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Katrina, citizens were given the
mandatory evacuation notice. Many people did not heed the communication to evacuate.
I propose these reasons that people might decide to stay:

Inability to evacuate due to lack of transportation or funds

Inability to comprehend warning due to language barriers

Loss of sensitivity to natural disasters or does not take them seriously
Although the third on this list is much harder to prepare for, I believe that the first two
issues can be addressed by public health officials. First, it is absolutely imperative that
the most advanced warning is available. Also, having a plan is necessary. Public health
officials must have a plan in place to communicate to all effected citizens. In 2006 DHS
reported that only 10 percent of states and 12 percent of urban communities have
addressed evacuating their population (GAO, 2006)
Getting Critical Information to the Public
Building a prominent social media presence will be very advantageous to public
health officials trying to communicate during the Cascadian Megaquake. After the
Boston Marathon bombing, I refreshed my news feed incessantly to hear news that my
best friend Erica was not injured. Calls into and out of the area where shut down.
However, Facebook prevailed and allowed her to update her friends and family that she
was all right. There were more than 20-million Superstorm Sandy related Twitter posts.
When the Boston Police Department tweeted “CAPTURED!!!” after they arrested the
bombing suspect, that tweet was shared 140,000 times (Maron, 2013). By having an
active social media presence before an earthquake, people will be more likely to follow
important public health departments such as Oregon Health Authority.
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Despite the most well executed plans, panic is inevitable in an emergency
situation. However, if recent disasters such as 9/11, Superstorm Sandy or the Boston
Marathon bombing have shown us anything is that people want to rise to the occasion.
This is facilitated through mass communication and social networking. Public health
officials should preemptively have programs in place that allow for people to help during
a crisis.
Chapter 5
Conclusion
Unfortunately both the general population and the United States government
currently respond to natural disasters by being reactionary. Public Health officials are
well aware of this. Support for hazard mitigation is strongest after a disaster. Improving
the earthquake resiliency of a building would do little after it has been structurally
damaged beyond repair. In the case of Superstorm Sandy, FEMA only readdressed flood
zones after the damage had been done.
By effectively communicating preparedness solutions and encouraging people to
actively participate in their personal readiness it can help reduce the estimated 10,000
deaths that are expected to occur when the Cascadia Megaquake strikes. In this paper I
proposed that public health officials create events that teach people about preparedness
while fostering community.
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References
Cascadia Subduction Zone. (2012). USGS. Retrieved from
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/structure/crust/cascadia.php.
Cultivation Theory. (n.d.). University of Twente. Retrieved from
http://www.utwente.nl/cw/theorieenoverzicht/Theory%20Clusters/Media,
%20Culture%20and%20Society/Cultivation_Theory-1/.
Dainton, M. & Zelley, E.D. (2004). Apply Communication Theory for Professional
Life: A Practical Introduction. Sage Publications.
Disaster Training and Response. (2012). Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention. Retrieved from
http://www.cdc.gov/nceh/hsb/disaster/training.htm.
Goldfinger, C., Nelson, C.H., Morey, A.E., Johnson, J.E., Patton, J.R., Karabanov,
E…Vallier, T. (2012). Turbidite event history-methods and implications for
Holocene paleoseismicity of the Cascadia Subduction Zone. USGS. Retrieved
from http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1661f/.
Leaning, J. & Guha-Sapir, D. (2013). Natural disasters, armed conflict, and public
health. The New England Journal of Medicine, 369, 1836-1842.
Maron, D.F. (2013). How social media is changing disaster response. Scientific
American. Retrieved from http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howsocial-media-is-changing-disaster-response/.
Pearce, K.J. (2009). Media and Mass Communication Theories. Encyclopedia of
Communication Theory. Retrieved form
http://knowledge.sagepub.com/view/communicationtheory/n231.xml.
Rauhala, E. (2011). How Japan became a leader in disaster preparation. TIME.
Retrieved from
http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2058390,00.html.
Slovic, P., Kunreuther, H. & White, G.F. (1974). Decision rocesses, rationality, and
adjustment to natural hazards. Retrieved from
http://www.scarp.ubc.ca/sites/default/files/Slovic%20et%20al.%201974.P
DF.
Transportation-Disadvantaged populations: Actions needed to clarify
Responsibilities and Increase Preparedness for Evacuations. (2006).
Government Accountability Office. Retrieved from
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-07-44.
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References (cont)
Yu, K., Wilson, J., Boone, D., Ek-Collins, G., Farrington, C.., Girod, F….Williams, G.
(2013). The Oregon Resilience Plan. Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory
Committee. Retrieved from
http://www.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/osspac/docs/Oregon_Resilience_Plan_d
raft_Executive_Summary.pdf.